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Supermarkets: More Than Just Food Retailing - UK - November 2014

“Aldi and Lidl are wedded to the smaller-store, limited range, largely-own-brand offer. So there is limited scope for them to cater to shopper demand for a wider range or for more branded lines – and so to capture more main-shop customers.”
– John Mercer, European Retail Analyst

This report covers the following issues:

  • Aldi and Lidl – How big will they get?
  • Is the hypermarket dead?]
  • But shopper trends are hitting grocery retailers
  • So should retailers be expanding their convenience formats?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

    • Addressing the issues confronting grocery retailers
      • Data
        • Financial definitions
          • Abbreviations
          • Executive Summary

              • The market
                • Value growth slowed by price competition
                  • Figure 1: Grocery retailers: Sector size and forecast (incl VAT), 2009-19
                  • Figure 2: Grocery retailers: Sector size and forecast (incl VAT), by segment, 2009-19
                • Companies, brands and innovations
                  • Market shares
                      • Figure 3: Leading grocers: Market shares, 2013
                      • Figure 4: The Big Four grocers: Market shares, 2009-14
                    • Brand research
                      • Figure 5: Brand research: Levels of trust and differentiation, September 2014
                    • The consumer
                      • Where they shop
                        • Figure 6: The consumer: Retailers used for main and top-up shops, September 2014
                      • Types of store used
                          • Figure 7: The consumer: Type of store used for main shops and top-up shops, September 2014
                        • Attitudes to the discounters
                            • Figure 8: The consumer: Attitudes to Aldi/Lidl – Agreement with statements, September 2014
                          • Why they do not shop (or shop more) at Aldi/Lidl
                            • Figure 9: The consumer: Why they do not do any/more of their grocery shopping at Aldi or Lidl, September 2014
                          • Non-groceries purchased from supermarkets
                              • Figure 10: The consumer: Non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers, whether online or in-store, September 2014
                            • What we think
                            • Issues and Insights

                                • Aldi and Lidl – How big will they get?
                                  • The facts
                                    • The implications
                                      • Is the hypermarket dead?
                                        • The facts
                                          • The implications
                                            • But shopper trends are hitting grocery retailers
                                              • The facts
                                                • The implications
                                                  • So should retailers be expanding their convenience formats?
                                                    • The facts
                                                      • The implications
                                                      • Trend Application

                                                          • Accentuate the Negative
                                                            • Life Hacking
                                                              • Mintel Futures
                                                              • The Market Environment

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • Inflation dwindles
                                                                    • Figure 11: Consumer prices: Annual % change, January 2012-September 2013
                                                                  • Real-terms growth likely to return
                                                                    • Figure 12: Annual consumer prices inflation (food, beverages, tobacco) versus annual growth in grocers’ sector sales, 2009-14
                                                                  • Consumers feeling better off
                                                                    • Figure 13: The consumer: Trends in current financial situation compared a year ago, July 2011-September 2014
                                                                  • But they are not losing frugal habits
                                                                    • Figure 14: The consumer: Those saying they “do more”, selected attitudes, December 2013-September 2014
                                                                    • Figure 15: The consumer: Those saying they “do more”, average age and affluence, September 2014
                                                                  • Ageing population
                                                                    • Figure 16: Projected age structure of the UK population, 2013 and 2018
                                                                  • Young people living with parents for longer
                                                                    • Figure 17: UK: Percentage of young adults aged 20-34 living with their parents, by age group, 2004-13
                                                                    • Figure 18: UK: Number of households, by occupancy, 2004 and 2013
                                                                • Consumer Spending and Channels of Distribution

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Low inflation to impact on spending growth in 2014
                                                                        • Figure 19: Consumer spending on food, beverages and tobacco (incl VAT), 2009-13
                                                                        • Figure 20: Estimated distribution of spending on food, beverages and tobacco, by type of retailer, 2013
                                                                        • Figure 21: Food specialists sub-sector breakdown, 2013
                                                                      • Spending on non-food grocery categories
                                                                        • Figure 22: Consumer spending on non-food grocery categories (incl VAT), 2009-13
                                                                    • Sector Size and Forecast

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Value growth slowed by price competition
                                                                          • Figure 23: Grocery retailers: Sector size and forecast (incl VAT), 2009-19
                                                                          • Figure 24: Grocery retailers: Sector size and forecast (incl VAT), at current and constant prices, 2009-19
                                                                        • Segment forecasts: Supermarkets stagnate, online surges, convenience grows
                                                                            • Figure 25: Grocery retailers: Sector size and forecast (incl VAT), by segment, 2009-19
                                                                          • Supermarkets segment: Stagnating in 2014
                                                                            • Figure 26: Supermarkets: Segment size and forecast (incl VAT), 2009-19
                                                                            • Figure 27: Supermarkets: Segment size and forecast (incl VAT), at current and constant prices, 2009-19
                                                                          • Convenience stores segment: Outperforming
                                                                            • Figure 28: Convenience stores: Segment size and forecast (incl VAT), 2009-19
                                                                            • Figure 29: Convenience stores: Segment size and forecast (incl VAT), 2009-19
                                                                          • Online: Strong growth from a small base
                                                                            • Figure 30: Online sales by grocers: Segment size and forecast (incl VAT), 2009-19
                                                                            • Figure 31: Online sales by grocers: Segment size and forecast (incl VAT), at current and constant prices, 2009-19
                                                                          • Real-terms sector growth: 2014 will be better
                                                                            • Figure 32: Annual consumer prices inflation (food, beverages, tobacco) versus annual growth in grocers’ sector sales, 2009-14
                                                                          • Forecast methodology
                                                                            • The fan chart
                                                                            • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                                              • Strengths
                                                                                • Weaknesses
                                                                                • Non-grocery Retail

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Non-groceries declining as share of sector sales
                                                                                      • Figure 33: Grocers sector: Estimated total general merchandise and clothing/footwear sales (incl VAT), 2011-13
                                                                                    • Non-grocery as a proportion of retailers’ sales
                                                                                      • Figure 34: Leading grocers: Estimated general merchandise and clothing sales as % of total sales, 2013
                                                                                    • Non-grocery sales by major retailer
                                                                                      • Figure 35: Leading grocers’ estimated sales of major non-food categories (excl VAT), 2011-13
                                                                                  • Brand Perceptions and Social Media

                                                                                    • Brand perceptions
                                                                                      • Key brand metrics
                                                                                        • Figure 36: Key brand metrics, September 2014
                                                                                      • Brand map
                                                                                          • Figure 37: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the supermarket sector, September 2014
                                                                                        • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                          • Brand attitudes
                                                                                            • Figure 38: Attitudes, by supermarket brand, September 2014
                                                                                          • Brand personality
                                                                                            • Figure 39: Supermarket brand personality – Macro image, September 2014
                                                                                            • Figure 40: Supermarket brand personality – Micro image, September 2014
                                                                                          • Brand usage
                                                                                            • Figure 41: Supermarket brand usage, September 2014
                                                                                          • Brand experience
                                                                                            • Figure 42: Supermarket brand experience, September 2014
                                                                                          • Social media and online buzz
                                                                                            • Social media metrics
                                                                                              • Figure 43: Social media metrics of selected supermarket brands, October 2014
                                                                                            • Tesco leads in overall mentions
                                                                                              • Lidl adds Twitter to its online presence
                                                                                                • Brands often have multiple social media profiles
                                                                                                  • Customers proud to associate themselves with Marks and Spencer
                                                                                                    • Online mentions
                                                                                                      • Figure 44: Share of conversation of top five selected supermarket brands, by week, 27 October 2013-25 October 2014
                                                                                                      • Figure 45: Share of conversation of next selected supermarket brands, by week, 27 October 2013-25 October 2014
                                                                                                    • Tesco announcements cause spike in mentions
                                                                                                      • Asda outfits cause increase in conversation for second year in a row
                                                                                                        • Morrisons criticised for advertising stunt but earns spike in mentions
                                                                                                          • Topics of discussion
                                                                                                            • Figure 46: Topics of discussion around selected supermarket brands, 27 October 2013-25 October 2014
                                                                                                          • Tesco’s dominance means it is most spoken about brand in all different contexts
                                                                                                            • Financial results have particular importance in face of Tesco problems
                                                                                                              • Price remains most spoken about topic
                                                                                                                • Peter Andre helps to increase Iceland presence
                                                                                                                  • Freshness is not necessarily an online concern
                                                                                                                    • Where discussion is occurring
                                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Conversation, by page type, by brand, 27 October 2013-25 October 2014
                                                                                                                    • Analysis by brand
                                                                                                                      • Tesco
                                                                                                                        • Figure 48: Topic cloud around mentions of Tesco, 27 October 2013-25 October 2014
                                                                                                                      • Asda, Sainsbury’s and Morrisons
                                                                                                                        • Figure 49: Topic cloud around mentions of Asda, 27 October 2013-25 October 2014
                                                                                                                        • Figure 50: Topic cloud around mentions of Sainsbury’s, 27 October 2013-25 October 2014
                                                                                                                        • Figure 51: Topic cloud around mentions of Morrisons, 27 October 2013-25 October 2014
                                                                                                                      • Aldi and Lidl
                                                                                                                        • Figure 52: Topic cloud around mentions of Aldi, 27 October 2013-25 October 2014
                                                                                                                        • Figure 53: Topic cloud around mentions of Lidl, 27 October 2013-25 October 2014
                                                                                                                      • M&S Simply Food
                                                                                                                        • Figure 54: Topic cloud around mentions of M&S Simply Food, 27 October 2013-25 October 2014
                                                                                                                      • Waitrose
                                                                                                                        • Figure 55: Topic cloud around mentions of Waitrose, 27 October 2013-25 October 2014
                                                                                                                      • The Co-operative
                                                                                                                        • Figure 56: Topic cloud around mentions of The Co-operative, 27 October 2013-25 October 2014
                                                                                                                      • Iceland
                                                                                                                        • Figure 57: Topic cloud around mentions of Iceland, 27 October 2013-25 October 2014
                                                                                                                    • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Total ad spend up
                                                                                                                          • The Big Four
                                                                                                                            • Discounters ramp up advertising spend
                                                                                                                              • Online grocery
                                                                                                                                • Figure 58: Main media advertising spend, by leading grocery retailers, 2010-13
                                                                                                                              • The press accounts for the lion’s share of ad spend
                                                                                                                                • Figure 59: Leading grocers’ main media advertising spend, by media type, 2013
                                                                                                                              • What we have seen in 2014
                                                                                                                                • Discounters pushing own brand product quality
                                                                                                                                  • Premier Stores first ever TV advertising campaign
                                                                                                                                    • Iceland’s ground-breaking commercial partnership with The Sun
                                                                                                                                      • Price-matching gets fierce and ugly
                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – Shopper Profiles by Retailer

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • Main-shop customer breakdowns
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 60: The consumer: Breakdown of main-shop customers at major grocers, by age group, September 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 61: The consumer: Breakdown of main-shop customers at major grocers, by region, September 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 62: The consumer: Breakdown of main-shop customers at major grocers, by social grade, September 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 63: The consumer: Breakdown of main-shop customers at major grocers, by type of location, September 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 64: The consumer: Breakdown of main-shop customers at major grocers, by parent/non-parent, September 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 65: The consumer: Breakdown of main-shop customers at major grocers, by financial sentiment, September 2014
                                                                                                                                          • The Consumer – Where They Shop

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • What we asked
                                                                                                                                                • Main grocery shopping: Aldi nudging closer to Morrisons
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 66: The consumer: Retailer used for main grocery shop, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                • Changes year-on-year
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 67: Retailer used for main shop/most grocery shopping, 2012, 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                                                                • Top-up shopping: Aldi and Lidl rivalling the Co-op and Morrisons
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 68: The consumer: Retailers used for top-up grocery shop, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                • Total usage: two thirds of all consumers use Tesco
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 69: The consumer: Retailers used for main and top-up shops, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                • Demographics: typical Morrisons customer is now more affluent
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 70: The consumer: Retailers used for main grocery shop, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 71: The consumer: Retailers used for top-up grocery shop, average age and affluence, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                  • Main shop, by region: Aldi under indexes in London
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 72: The consumer: Retailer used for main grocery shop, by region – Relative to national average for each retailer, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                    • Online focus group
                                                                                                                                                    • The Consumer – Types of Stores Used

                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                        • What we asked
                                                                                                                                                          • Supermarkets continue to dominate main grocery shops
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 73: The consumer: Type of store used for main grocery shop, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                          • And supermarkets still lead for top-up shops
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 74: The consumer: Type of store used for top-up grocery shops, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 75: The consumer: Type of store used for grocery shopping – Total of main and top-up shops, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Frequency of usage
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 76: The consumer: Frequency of usage, by store type, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                              • Main shop demographics: Young turn to c-stores, older turn to out-of-town
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 77: The consumer: Type of store used for main grocery shop, by age group, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 78: The consumer: Type of store used for main grocery shop, average age and affluence, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                • Type of store, by retailer used for main shop
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 79: The consumer: Type of store used for main grocery shop, by retailer used for main grocery shop, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 80: The consumer: Type of store used for main grocery shop, by retailer used for main grocery shop, September 2014 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                  • Repertoire of stores used for top-up shopping
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 81: The consumer: Repertoire analysis of type of store used for top-up grocery shops, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                    • Online focus group: Changing shopping habits
                                                                                                                                                                    • The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Aldi and Lidl

                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                        • What we asked
                                                                                                                                                                          • Almost half of consumers now shop at Aldi/Lidl more
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 82: The consumer: Attitudes to Aldi/Lidl – Agreement with statements, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                          • Three quarters would stick with Aldi/Lidl even if they had more money
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 83: The consumer: Attitudes to Aldi/Lidl – Changing shopping habits, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                            • Focus group
                                                                                                                                                                              • Shoppers think quality has improved in fresh foods
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 84: The consumer: Attitudes to Aldi/Lidl – Quality of products, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                              • Focus group
                                                                                                                                                                                • Brand choice has improved but still cannot do all their shopping at Aldi/Lidl
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 85: The consumer: Attitudes to Aldi/Lidl – Choice of products, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                • Focus group
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Non-grocery special deals are a key selling point
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 86: The consumer: Attitudes to Aldi/Lidl – Non-grocery products, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Attitudes to discounters, among those who shop at the discounters
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 87: The consumer: Attitudes to Aldi/Lidl among Aldi/Lidl shoppers – Relative to total shopper average, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                      • By where they shop
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 88: The consumer: Attitudes to Aldi/Lidl, by where they do their main grocery shop, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Focus group: What could prompt shopper migration to or from Aldi/Lidl?
                                                                                                                                                                                        • The Consumer – Why They Do not Shop at Aldi/Lidl

                                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                            • What we asked
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Limited ranges and few stores limit shopper numbers
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 89: The consumer: Why they do not do any/more of their grocery shopping at Aldi or Lidl, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                              • By region: too few stores in London and the south east?
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 90: The consumer: Why they do not do any/more of their grocery shopping at Aldi or Lidl – “There is not one in a location that is convenient for me”, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                              • By social grade: ABs more concerned with brand choice
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 91: The consumer: Why they do not do any/more of their grocery shopping at Aldi or Lidl, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Why they do not shop there, crossed by where they do shop
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 92: The consumer: Why they do not do any/more of their grocery shopping at Aldi or Lidl, by where they do their main grocery shop, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Online focus group
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • The Consumer – Buying Non-grocery Items from Supermarkets

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Fully 86% buy non-groceries from supermarkets
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 93: The consumer: Non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • And 49% are buying non-groceries from supermarkets online
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 94: The consumer: Non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers, by in-store/online, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Supermarkets lose non-grocery shoppers in 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 95: The consumer: Non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers, September 2013 and September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 2014 vs 2013: In-store
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 96: The consumer: Non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers – In-store, September 2013 and September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 2014 vs 2013: Online
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 97: The consumer: Non-grocery items bought from grocery retailers – Online, September 2013 and September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • By main-shop retailer: Aldi shoppers over-index on DIY
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 98: Non-grocery purchases (whether online or in-store), by Retailers used for main and top-up shops, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Online focus group
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Pioneering independent ethical supermarket
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 99: hiSbe, Brighton
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Zero-waste supermarket
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Click-and-Collect
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Improving the checkout process for in-store shoppers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Unique DIY mental health screening kiosk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Car-like GPS in-store sales navigation system
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Smart trolley
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • App for cash-back on groceries
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • iBeacon technology changing the shopping experience at Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Home scanning
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Space Allocation Summary

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Summary data and classifications
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 100: Food, non-food standard classifications, 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Convenience – Comparison goods
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 101: Leading food retailers: Convenience comparison split, October 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 102: Leading food retailers, pattern of space allocation to foods, October 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Detailed space allocation data
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 103: UK hypermarkets: Estimated space allocations, October 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 104: UK hypermarkets: Estimated space allocations, October 2014 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 105: UK hypermarkets: Estimated space allocations, October 2014 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 106: UK hypermarkets: Estimated space allocations, October 2014 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 107: Leading superstores: Estimated space allocations, October 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 108: Leading superstores: Estimated space allocations, October 2014 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 109: Leading superstores: Estimated space allocations, October 2014 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 110: Leading superstores: Estimated space allocations, October 2014 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 111: Smaller stores and hard discounters: Estimated space allocations, October 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 112: Smaller stores and hard discounters: Estimated space allocations, October 2014 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 113: Smaller stores and hard discounters: Estimated space allocations, October 2014 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 114: Smaller stores and hard discounters: Estimated space allocations, October 2014 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Retail Product Mix

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 115: Leading food retailers: Estimated sales breakdown, 2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 116: Leading food retailers: Estimated sales breakdown, 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Sales densities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 117: Leading retailers, Estimated sales density by product, 2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Market shares of spending on food
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 118: Leading food retailers: Estimated share of all spending on food and drink, 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Leading Grocery Retailers

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Sales: Tesco’s first slippage in memory
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 119: Leading grocery retailers: Net sales, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 120: Leading 10 grocery retailers: Compound annual growth rates in net sales, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Store numbers and sales per outlet
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 121: Leading grocery retailers: Store numbers, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 122: Leading 10 grocery retailers: Compound annual growth rates in sales per outlet, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 123: Leading grocery retailers: Annual sales per outlet, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Sales area and sales densities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 124: Leading grocery retailers: Total sales area, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 125: Leading grocery retailers: Annual sales per sq m, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Operating profits and operating margins
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 126: Leading grocery retailers: Operating profits, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 127: Leading grocery retailers: Operating margins, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Market Shares

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Three of the Big Four are expected to lose share in 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 128: Leading grocery retailers: Share of sector sales, 2009-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Big Four fall below two-thirds share
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 129: Market shares: The Big Four and Tesco, 2009-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 130: Market shares: Aldi and Lidl, 2009-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • How we calculate our market shares
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Online

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Online sales by grocery retailers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 131: Online sales by grocers as % of grocers’ sector sales, 2009-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 132: Online sales by grocers: Segment size and forecast (incl VAT), 2009-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Market shares
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 133: Estimated market shares of online sales by grocers, 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK coverage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 134: Coverage: Selected leading online grocers, February/March 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Online sales of grocery products
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 135: Online sales of grocery products (incl VAT), 2008-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 136: Online grocery sales (incl VAT), at current and constant prices, 2008-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • The consumer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Nearly one quarter now buy online
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 137: The consumer: Type of store used for grocery shopping – Online, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Where they shop online
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 138: The consumer: Retailers used for majority of grocery shopping, online, December 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Why they do not shop online
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 139: The consumer: Reasons for not shopping for groceries online, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Website visitor data
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 140: Leading food retail websites, by unique visitor numbers, September 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Aldi

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Germany
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Elsewhere
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Where next?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 141: Aldi: Group financial performance, 2008/9-2012/13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 142: Aldi: Outlet data, 2008/9-2012/13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 143: Aldi: Outlet data, 2008/9-2012/13 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Asda Group Ltd

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Aldi and Lidl
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Online
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Where next?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 144: Asda Group Ltd: Group financial performance, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 145: Asda Group Ltd: Outlet data, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 146: Asda: Sales mix, 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • The Co-operative Food

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Members vote in favour of changes to governance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Clear focus on c-stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Marston’s deal brings over 60 new stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Improving the c-store offer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Interim results reflect a company in transition
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 147: The Co-operative Food: Group financial performance, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 148: The Co-operative Food: Outlet data, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Iceland Foods

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Riding the discounter wave
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Online: Gaining coverage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Remains more popular as a top-up shop destination
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 149: Iceland Foods Ltd: Group financial performance, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 150: Iceland Foods Ltd: Outlet data, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Lidl/Kaufland (Schwarz Group)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Online
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Where next
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 151: Schwarz Group: Group financial performance, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 152: Schwarz Group: Outlet data, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 153: Schwarz Group: Outlet data, 2009/10-2013/14 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 154: Schwarz Group: Outlet data, 2009/10-2013/14 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 155: Schwarz Group: Outlet data, 2009/10-2013/14 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Marks & Spencer (UK food)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Product differentiation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • ‘Shop for today’ M&S Simply Food store expansion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Developing the in-store experience
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Limited click-and-collect service
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 156: Marks & Spencer (UK food): Group financial performance, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 157: Marks & Spencer (UK food): Food outlets by format, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 158: Marks & Spencer (UK food): Outlet data, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Wm Morrison Group

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • What went wrong?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • But decline of superstores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Match and More
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Cutting SKUs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Online
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Going forward
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 159: Wm Morrison Group: Group financial performance, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 160: Wm Morrison Group: Outlet data, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Ocado

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Morrisons partnership gets off to a good start
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Potential for similar tie-ups?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • New Sizzle “destination site” joins Fetch
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 161: Ocado Ltd: Group financial performance, 2008/9-2012/13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • J. Sainsbury

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Write downs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Promotions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Launch of Netto
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Change of CEO
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Where next?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 162: J. Sainsbury: Group financial performance, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 163: J. Sainsbury: Outlet data, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 164: Sainsbury’s: Estimated sales mix, 2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Spar Europe

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Enhanced own-label offering targeting meal-times
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Pushing its convenient shopping destination credentials
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Limited online grocery shopping option
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Positioning itself as a healthy food retailer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Improving the in-store checkout experience for its customers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Tailored formats offering additional sales growth opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Expanded everyday general merchandise range
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 165: SPAR International: Retail sales by country, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 166: SPAR International: Outlets, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 167: SPAR International: Retail sales area, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 168: SPAR International: Sales per sq m, by country, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Tesco Plc

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Profits overstatement
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Unintended consequences
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK stores all important
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Where next?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Longer term
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Recent trading
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Profits overstatement
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 169: Tesco Plc: Group financial performance, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 170: Tesco Plc: Outlet data, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Waitrose Ltd

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Creating additional reasons to visit its stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Establishing itself in the potentially lucrative commuter market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Online grocery delivery enhancements
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Specialist online product offering boosting sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • myWaitrose driving incremental sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 172: Waitrose Ltd: Group financial performance, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 173: Waitrose Ltd: Outlet data, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Retail offering

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Aldi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Lidl (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Ocado Group plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Spar UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Tesco (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Wm Morrison Supermarkets

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Supermarkets: More Than Just Food Retailing - UK - November 2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        US $2,672.70 (Excl.Tax)