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Supermarkets - UK - November 2015

“The grocery superstores are losing market share and the main focus of this report is to examine why. We think that there are underlying socio-economic changes taking place which allied to the growth of the hard discounters, Aldi and Lidl, is leading to growth in more frequent shopping trips and smaller basket sizes. These changes are not reversible in the foreseeable future and we think that the underlying decline in superstores will continue.”

– Richard Perks, Director of Retail Research

This report looks at the following issues:

  • Why are the superstores losing market share?
  • Should the superstores be cutting prices?
  • Is this the end of the superstore?
  • Online – A threat?

The grocery superstores whose growth has dominated food retailing since the early 1950s are now losing market share. We think the underlying reasons for this are socio-economic, allied to the growth of the hard discounters, Aldi and Lidl. Online is primarily a service to customers, though online shoppers spend less and that is also a small negative factor.

The market is shifting to the high street with convenience stores, hard discounters and also the non-food discounters such as Home Bargains and Poundland benefitting.

But this is not the end of superstores. Their decline should stabilise in due course and they need to rethink their format for shoppers who may visit less often, but who will want to spend longer there when they do.

The main focus of this report is the superstores of the market leaders – those stores which people use to do their main shop. Convenience retailing is covered more specifically in Mintel’s report on Convenience stores – UK, April 2015, the last edition of which was in April 2015. We also cover the hard discounters, Aldi and Lidl, whose appeal straddles both the main shop and convenience arenas.

 

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Areas covered in this report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Figure 1: Consumers: State of finances, 2009-15
          • Food retailers’ sales
            • Figure 2: Food retailers: Breakdown of Sector, 2015 (est)
            • Figure 3: All food retailers: sales, 2010-20
            • Figure 4: Channels of distribution for food and drink, 2014
          • Socio-economic changes
            • Prices
              • Online
                • Leading retailers
                  • Market shares
                    • Space allocation and product mix
                      • Figure 5: Leading food retailers: sales mix, 2014
                    • The consumer
                      • Tesco dominant
                        • Figure 6: Retailer most money spent in during the last month, August 2015
                      • Main shop vs convenience
                        • Figure 7: Proportions of grocery shoppers who have changed the way they shop in the last year, August 2015
                      • What do people want from their supermarket?
                        • Figure 8: Most important factor in choosing where to shop, August 2015
                      • Key factors by supermarket used
                        • Satisfaction
                          • Figure 9: Overall net satisfaction with main retailer by criteria, August 2015
                        • Opening hours
                          • Figure 10: Attitudes towards Sunday opening, August 2015
                        • Pricing
                          • Figure 11: Attitudes towards grocers’ pricing, August 2015
                        • Non-foods
                          • Figure 12: Attitudes towards buying non-foods and services from grocery retailers, August 2015
                        • What we think
                        • Issues and Insights

                          • Why are the superstores losing market share?
                            • The facts
                              • The implications
                                • Should the superstores be cutting prices?
                                  • The facts
                                    • The implications
                                      • Is this the end of the superstore?
                                        • The facts
                                          • The implications
                                            • Online – A threat?
                                              • The facts
                                                • The implications
                                                • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                  • Consumer confidence
                                                    • Inflation
                                                      • Consumer spending
                                                        • Non-retail and services
                                                          • Sales mix
                                                            • Channels of distribution
                                                              • Sector prospects
                                                                • Socio-economic changes
                                                                  • Prices
                                                                  • Market Drivers

                                                                    • Consumer confidence
                                                                      • Figure 13: Consumers: state of finances, 2009-2015
                                                                    • Food tracker
                                                                      • Figure 14: People who look out for special offers, Dec 2013 – Aug 2015
                                                                    • Aldi, Lidl
                                                                      • Figure 15: People who shop more or the same at Aldi and Lidl, Dec 2013 – Aug 2015
                                                                    • Inflation
                                                                        • Figure 16: Food and drink inflation, 2010-15
                                                                    • Consumer Spending on Food and Drink

                                                                      • Food and drink
                                                                          • Figure 17: Spending on food drink and tobacco, 2010-14
                                                                        • Non-foods
                                                                            • Figure 18: Spending on key non-food categories, 2010-14
                                                                          • Non-retail and services
                                                                            • Fuel
                                                                                • Figure 19: Leading food retailers: Share of fuel sales, 2011-14
                                                                              • Banking and financial services
                                                                                • Other non-retail
                                                                                  • Food retailers sales mix
                                                                                      • Figure 20: Food retailers: Sales by product, 2014
                                                                                  • Channels of Distribution

                                                                                      • Figure 21: Channels of distribution for food and drink, 2014
                                                                                  • Sector Size and Forecast

                                                                                        • Figure 22: All food retailers, year-on-year growth 2010-15
                                                                                        • Figure 23: Food retailers market size (including VAT), 2010-14
                                                                                        • Figure 24: Food retailers: Breakdown of Sector, 2015 (est)
                                                                                      • Forecast
                                                                                        • Figure 25: All food retailers: sales, 2010-20
                                                                                        • Figure 26: All food retailers: Sales 2010-2020
                                                                                        • Figure 27: Food superstores: Sales 2010-20
                                                                                        • Figure 28: Food superstores: Sales 2010-20
                                                                                        • Figure 29: Convenience stores: Sales value, 2010-20
                                                                                        • Figure 30: Convenience stores: Sales value, 2010-20
                                                                                        • Figure 31: Discounters and other value retailers: Sales value, 2010-20
                                                                                        • Figure 32: Discounters and other value retailers: Sales value, 2010-20
                                                                                        • Figure 33: Food and drink specialists: Sales, 2010-20
                                                                                        • Figure 34: Food and drink specialists: sales 2010-2020
                                                                                      • Where people live
                                                                                        • Figure 35: Proportion of people renting their homes, 2001-14
                                                                                        • Figure 36: Profile of population by nature of home tenure, 2014
                                                                                      • Pricing and the CMA report
                                                                                        • Which?’s complaints
                                                                                          • The CMA response
                                                                                            • Where next?
                                                                                            • Leading Retailers – What You Need to Know

                                                                                              • Online
                                                                                                • Leading retailers
                                                                                                  • Market shares
                                                                                                    • Space allocation and product mix
                                                                                                    • Innovation and Launch Activity

                                                                                                      • Enhanced in-store experience
                                                                                                        • Figure 37: Asda in-store virtual reality Halloween experience, Watford
                                                                                                      • Making shopping trips easier
                                                                                                        • Transumers
                                                                                                          • New not-for-profit grocery store concept
                                                                                                            • ‘App-less’ shopping platform
                                                                                                              • 24/7 click-and-collect
                                                                                                                • Amazon ups the ante with one-hour grocery service
                                                                                                                  • Speciality supermarket
                                                                                                                    • Discount grocery chain targeting value-conscious shoppers
                                                                                                                    • Leading Grocery Retailers: Key Metrics

                                                                                                                      • 2014: A year to forget for the major operators
                                                                                                                          • Figure 38: Leading grocery retailers: Net sales, 2010-14
                                                                                                                        • The market remains tough but there are signs of improvement for the majors
                                                                                                                          • Figure 39: Like-for-like sales performance, Exc. VAT and Fuel, Q1 2014 – Q2 2015
                                                                                                                        • Store numbers and sales per outlet
                                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Leading grocery retailers: Store numbers, 2010-14
                                                                                                                          • Figure 41: Leading grocery retailers: Annual sales per outlet, 2010-14
                                                                                                                        • Sales area and sales densities
                                                                                                                          • Figure 42: Leading grocery retailers: Total sales area, 2010-14
                                                                                                                          • Figure 43: Leading grocery retailers: Annual sales per sq m, 2010-14
                                                                                                                        • Operating profits and margins
                                                                                                                          • Figure 44: Leading grocery retailers: Operating profits, 2010-14
                                                                                                                          • Figure 45: Leading grocery retailers: Operating margins, 2010-14
                                                                                                                      • Market Shares

                                                                                                                          • Figure 46: Leading grocery retailers: Share of sector sales, 2014
                                                                                                                          • Figure 47: Leading grocery retailers: Share of sector sales, 2010-15
                                                                                                                          • Figure 48: Market shares: The Big Four grocery multiples, 2010-15
                                                                                                                          • Figure 49: Market Shares: Aldi and Lidl, 2010-15
                                                                                                                        • A note on our market shares
                                                                                                                          • Space allocation and retail product mix
                                                                                                                          • Online

                                                                                                                              • Figure 50: Online sales by grocers as a % of all grocery sector sales, 2010-15
                                                                                                                              • Figure 51: Online sales by grocers, (including VAT), 2010-15
                                                                                                                              • Figure 52: Online sales by grocers, (including VAT), 2010-15
                                                                                                                            • Market shares
                                                                                                                              • Figure 53: Leading online grocery retailers market shares, 2014
                                                                                                                              • Figure 54: Leading online grocery retailers market shares, 2010-14
                                                                                                                            • Coverage and fulfilment
                                                                                                                              • Figure 55: Major grocery retailers offering grocery click-and-collect services, 2015
                                                                                                                          • Space Allocation Summary

                                                                                                                            • Summary data and classifications
                                                                                                                              • Figure 56: Food, non-food standard classifications, 2015
                                                                                                                            • Convenience – Comparison goods
                                                                                                                              • Figure 57: UK leading food retailers: Convenience comparison overview split, October 2015
                                                                                                                              • Figure 58: UK leading food retailers: Detailed convenience comparison split, October 2015
                                                                                                                            • Fresh food focus
                                                                                                                              • Figure 59: UK leading food retailers: food and drink categories as a percentage of total space allocated to food and drink, October 2015
                                                                                                                            • Detailed space allocation data
                                                                                                                              • Figure 60: UK leading food retailers: overview percentage linear shelf space split in front of the checkout area by Food and Non-alcoholic drinks, Alcohol, Grocery non-foods, and General merchandise, October 2015
                                                                                                                              • Figure 61: UK hypermarkets: Estimated space allocations, October 2015
                                                                                                                              • Figure 62: UK hypermarkets: Estimated space allocations, October 2015 (continued)
                                                                                                                              • Figure 63: UK hypermarkets: Estimated space allocations, October 2015 (continued)
                                                                                                                              • Figure 64: UK hypermarkets: Estimated space allocations, October 2015 (continued)
                                                                                                                              • Figure 65: UK leading superstores: Estimated space allocations, October 2015
                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: UK leading superstores: Estimated space allocations, October 2015 (continued)
                                                                                                                              • Figure 67: UK leading superstores: Estimated space allocations, October 2015 (continued)
                                                                                                                              • Figure 68: UK leading superstores: Estimated space allocations, October 2015 (continued)
                                                                                                                              • Figure 69: UK smaller stores and hard discounters: Estimated space allocations, October 2015
                                                                                                                              • Figure 15: UK smaller stores and hard discounters: Estimated space allocations, October 2015 (continued)
                                                                                                                              • Figure 70: UK smaller stores and hard discounters: Estimated space allocations, October 2015 (continued)
                                                                                                                              • Figure 71: UK smaller stores and hard discounters: Estimated space allocations, October 2015 (continued)
                                                                                                                          • Retail Product Mix

                                                                                                                                • Figure 72: Leading food retailers: Estimated sales mix, 2014
                                                                                                                                • Figure 73: Leading food retailers: sales as % all retail sales, 2014
                                                                                                                                • Figure 74: Sales density by broad product category, 2014
                                                                                                                                • Figure 75: Major food retailers: Estimated market share of key categories, 2014
                                                                                                                            • Brand Research – Supermarkets

                                                                                                                                • What you need to know
                                                                                                                                  • Brand map
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 76: Attitudes towards and usage of selected supermarket brands, August 2015
                                                                                                                                  • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 77: Key metrics for selected supermarket brands, August 2015
                                                                                                                                  • Brand attitudes: Established supermarkets defined by wide presence
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 78: Attitudes, by supermarket brand, August 2015
                                                                                                                                  • Brand personality: M&S Simply Food and Waitrose have exclusive images, while The Co-operative is seen as boring or tired
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 79: Brand personality – macro image, August 2015
                                                                                                                                  • Aldi, Lidl and Iceland still seen as somewhat basic by many
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 80: Brand personality – micro image, August 2015
                                                                                                                                  • Brand analysis
                                                                                                                                    • The Big Four remain largely dominant
                                                                                                                                      • Customer service and wide availability likely to influence usage
                                                                                                                                        • Aldi overtakes Morrisons on trust
                                                                                                                                          • Aldi and Lidl continue to build trust
                                                                                                                                            • Both brands cause consumers to redefine what counts as value
                                                                                                                                              • Iceland’s prospects improve
                                                                                                                                                • M&S Simply Food and Waitrose still noted for quality and being expensive
                                                                                                                                                  • Differentiation from other supermarkets protects M&S Simply Food and Waitrose image and position
                                                                                                                                                    • The Co-operative has an ethical image but also seen in more negative terms than other brands
                                                                                                                                                      • Negative perceptions do not appear to influence a drop in usage however
                                                                                                                                                      • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                                        • Sector advertising spend up 6.2% in 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 81: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by UK supermarket and online grocers, 2011-14
                                                                                                                                                          • Asda is the biggest spender
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 82: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by leading UK grocery retailers, 2011-14
                                                                                                                                                            • Share of advertising spend
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 83: Percentage media type split of recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by UK supermarkets and online grocers, 2011-14
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 84: Percentage of recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by the UK’s leading grocery retailers, by media type, 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • A note on adspend
                                                                                                                                                            • Aldi

                                                                                                                                                                • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                  • Aldi Sud still the innovator
                                                                                                                                                                    • The UK
                                                                                                                                                                      • Costs
                                                                                                                                                                        • Online
                                                                                                                                                                          • Everywhere else
                                                                                                                                                                            • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                              • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 85: Aldi: Group financial performance, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 86: Aldi: Outlet data, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                              • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                              • Asda Group

                                                                                                                                                                                  • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Poor performance
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Cost cutting
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Quality
                                                                                                                                                                                          • The customer point of view
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Black Friday
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Where next
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 87: Asda Group Ltd: Group financial performance, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 88: Asda Group Ltd: Outlet data, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • The Co-operative Food

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Bringing down the price of fresh food
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Local and to-go
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • No plans to launch into online grocery
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Large stores strategy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Meeting demand for little, but often grocery shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 89: The Co-operative Food: Group financial performance, 2010/11-2014/15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 90: The Co-operative Food: Outlet data, 2010/11-2014/15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Iceland Foods

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • New store format offers more reasons to visit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Online operation worth £100m a year in sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Frozen food credentials
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 91: Iceland Foods Ltd: Group financial performance, 2010/11-2014/15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 92: Iceland Foods Ltd: Outlet data, 2010/11-2014/15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Marks & Spencer (UK food)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Differentiation through product offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Well positioned to capitalise on the demand for little, but often grocery shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • More stores carrying the full food product range
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Tapping into wearable technology to make food shopping easier
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Click-and-collect service gives consumers another reason to visit M&S Simply Food stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Enhanced in-store food experiences
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Overseas store expansion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • M&S Sparks
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Limited online grocery service, which is sufficient for its positioning
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 93: Marks & Spencer (UK food): Group financial performance, 2010/11-2014/15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 94: Marks & Spencer (UK food): Food outlets by format, 2010/11-2014/15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 95: Marks & Spencer (UK food): Outlet data, 2010/11-2014/15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Ocado

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • J. Sainsbury

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Sainsbury’s stands out
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Doing it right
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Netto
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Where next
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 97: J. Sainsbury: Group financial performance, 2010/11-2014/15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 98: J. Sainsbury: Outlet data, 2010/11-2014/15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Schwarz Group (Lidl, Kaufland)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Cost
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Kaufland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Expansion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Where next
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 99: Schwarz Group: Group financial performance, 2010/11-2014/15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 100: Schwarz Group: Outlet data, 2010/11-2014/15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Spar International

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Transit locations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …airports
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • …motorway service areas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Pushing its health and wellness credentials
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Leading the contactless payment revolution
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Strengthening local ties
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • New digital strategy to connect with Millennials
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • An award winning brand
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Building on its foodservice offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 101: Spar International: Retail sales by country, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 102: Spar International: Outlets, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 103: Spar International: Retail sales area, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 104: Spar International: Sales per sq m, by country, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Tesco

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Moving on
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Dave Lewis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Reinvestment in stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Balance sheet
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The store portfolio
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • International
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Cause for optimism
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 105: Tesco store portfolio, 2014-15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 106: Tesco Plc: Group financial performance, 2010/11-2014/15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 107: Tesco Plc: Outlet data, 2010/11-2014/15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Waitrose

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Customised loyalty scheme deepening the brand’s value credentials
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Compelling in-store experiences to drive footfall and increase dwell time
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Building its online business
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Customer driven services differentiator
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Adapting to changing consumer shopping habits
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 108: Waitrose Ltd: Group financial performance, 2010/11-2014/15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 109: Waitrose Ltd: Outlet data, 2010/11-2014/15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Wm Morrison Group

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • What we think
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Everyday low price positioning
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Contactless payment, express checkouts, extended opening hours
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Bespoke store format that resonates with local communities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 110: Morrisons, Weybridge: Fresh vegetable product display, January 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Online service lacks coverage and delivery options
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • New convenience store format
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Geo-location advertising method boosts intent to buy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Company background
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 111: Wm Morrison Group: Group financial performance, 2010/11-2014/15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 112: Wm Morrison Group: Outlet data, 2010/11-2014/15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • The Consumer - What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Tesco dominant
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Main shop vs convenience
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • What do people want from their supermarket?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Key factors by supermarket used
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Satisfaction
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Opening hours
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Non-foods
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Where They Shop

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Who does the shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Main shop vs convenience shop
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 113: Profile of grocery shoppers by how often they shop, August, 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 114: Proportions of grocery shoppers who have changed the way they shop in the last year, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 115: Profile of those who have changed their shopping habits, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 116: Profile of those who have changed their shopping habits, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Online vs in-store
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 117: Online and in-store shoppers, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 118: Profile of main shop and top-up shoppers by where they shop, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Main shop
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 119: Retailer most money spent in during the last month, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 120: Profile of main shoppers, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 2015 vs 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 121: Retailer most money spent with in last month, August 2013 and August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Also shop
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 122: Retailer also used in a typical month, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 123: Profile of shoppers at “also used” shops, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • How many retailers used?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 124: Number of different retailers “also used” in the last month, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 125: Profile of shoppers by the number of other supermarkets used, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Factors Important in Choosing a Supermarket

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 126: Factors in choosing where to shop, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 127: Most important factor in choosing where to shop, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Who chooses which factors
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 128: Profile of people valuing key factors, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Top rank
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 129: Profile of those who chose the factor first, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Regional differences
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 130: Regional profile of factor preferences, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Prices – a consumer perspective
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Key factors vs where people shop
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Tesco
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 131: Tesco shoppers: relative importance of Key factors, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Sainsbury’s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 132: Sainsbury’s shoppers: relative importance of Key factors, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Asda
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 133: Asda shoppers: relative importance of Key factors, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Morrisons
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 134: Morrisons shoppers: relative importance of Key factors, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Aldi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 135: Aldi shoppers: relative importance of Key factors, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Most important factor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 136: Most important factor by where people shop most, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • The CMA report
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Customer Satisfaction with Grocery Shopping

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 137: Overall net satisfaction with main retailer by criteria, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 138: Key drivers of overall satisfaction with the main grocery retailer used, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 139: Overall satisfaction with the main grocery retailer used - key driver output, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Quality of fresh foods
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 140: Satisfaction with fresh food quality by most used retailer, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 141: Satisfaction with ready meal quality by most used retailer, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Service
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 142: Satisfaction with customer service by most used retailer, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 143: Satisfaction with décor and cleanliness by most used retailer, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Checkouts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 144: Satisfaction with waiting time at checkout by most used retailer, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Availability
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 145: Satisfaction with availability by most used retailer, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Satisfaction by retailer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Attitudes Towards Opening Hours

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 146: Attitudes towards Sunday opening, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 147: Profile of those who agree/disagree with longer opening hours, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 148: Customers of major supermarkets who would like longer opening hours, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Attitudes Towards Grocery Pricing

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 149: Attitudes towards grocers’ pricing, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 150: Attitudes towards supermarket promotion by where people do their main shop, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 151: Trust in supermarket price matching promises by where people do their main shop, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 152: People thinking that supermarkets raise prices ahead of promotions by where they do their main shop, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Grocers and Non-foods

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 153: Attitudes towards buying non-foods and services from grocery retailers, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Non-foods and retailers used
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Impulse buys
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 154: Impulse buyers by where they do their main shop, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 155: Buyers of non-foods as part of regular shop, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Services
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 156: Users of supermarket financial services by where they do their main shop, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Support Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key driver analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 157: Overall satisfaction with the main grocery retailer used - key driver output, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 158: Satisfaction with the main grocery retailer used, August 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Data sources
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Financial definitions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • VAT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Abbreviations

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Tesco (UK)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Supermarkets - UK - November 2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)