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Tea and Other Hot Drinks - UK - February 2012

“The current crop of loose leaf teas, including Twinings and Yorkshire Tea, are far from youth-oriented. Therefore, running youthful, contemporary-styled ad campaigns of loose tea products provides an opportunity for manufacturers to encourage demand among this group.”

– Alex Beckett, Senior Food Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • How can manufacturers rejuvenate usage of standard tea?
  • How can loose leaf tea reinvigorate flagging consumer interest?
  • How can fruit/herbal tea accelerate its frequency of usage?
  • To what extent do hot chocolate manufacturers have to diversify offerings to accommodate older and younger generations?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Tea
                • Figure 1: UK retail value sales of tea, by sector, 2011
              • Forecast
                • Figure 2: UK retail sales value of in-home tea, 2006-16
                • Figure 3: UK retail sales of hot chocolate and malted drinks, 2006-16
              • Market factors
                • After three years of inflation, tea prices fall in 2011
                  • Figure 4: Trends for annual % change in price (measured in Retail Price Index) for tea and coffee, Jan 2006-Nov 2011
                • Coffee market grows, both in-home and out
                  • Tea as a staple should weather weak consumer outlook
                    • Companies, brands and innovation
                      • Reduced branded activity drags down overall NPD in 2011
                        • Advertising support jumps to recent record high in 2011
                          • PG Tips leads a competitive tea market
                            • Figure 5: Brand value shares in the UK in-home tea market, 2011
                          • Cadbury and Horlicks share 40p in every £1 spent on hot chocolate
                            • Figure 6: Brand value shares in the UK in-home hot chocolate and malted drinks market, 2011
                          • The consumer
                            • Tea is used by nearly nine in ten, although usage rates are struggling
                              • Standard tea suffers, usage of alternative teas edges up
                                • Figure 7: Kinds of tea used, 2010-11
                              • Usage of hot chocolate and malted drinks wanes
                                • Attitudes towards standard tea
                                  • Figure 8: Attitudes towards standard tea, December 2011
                                • Attitudes towards fruit, herbal and green teas
                                  • Figure 9: Attitudes towards other teas, December 2011
                                • Attitudes towards hot chocolate and malted drinks
                                  • Figure 10: Attitudes towards hot chocolate and malted drinks, December 2011
                                • What we think
                                • Issues in the Market

                                    • How can manufacturers rejuvenate usage of standard tea?
                                      • How can loose leaf tea reinvigorate flagging consumer interest?
                                        • How can fruit/herbal tea accelerate its frequency of usage?
                                          • To what extent do hot chocolate manufacturers have to diversify offerings to accommodate older and younger generations?
                                          • Future Opportunities

                                              • Trend: Sense of the Intense
                                                • Trend: Many Mes
                                                • Internal Market Environment

                                                  • Key points
                                                    • After three years of inflation, tea prices fall in 2011
                                                      • Figure 11: Trends for annual % change in price (measured in Retail Price Index) for tea and coffee, Jan 2006-Nov 2011
                                                    • Cocoa
                                                      • Tea – a healthy drink?
                                                        • Figure 12: agreement with the statement ‘News on food influences my dietary habits,’ by socio economic group, 2011
                                                      • Rise in sleep disorders can benefit hot drinks market
                                                        • Afternoon tea makes a 21st century comeback, albeit with a slightly Oriental influence
                                                        • Broader Market Environment

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • Older population set for growth
                                                              • Figure 13: Projected trends in population growth, by age, 2011-16
                                                            • Bleak outlook for consumer confidence
                                                              • Figure 14: Monthly consumer confidence index, January 2007-December 2011
                                                            • Forecast increase in the UK birth rate could advance growth for decaff
                                                              • Figure 15: Number of births, UK, 2005-15
                                                          • Competitive Context

                                                            • Key points
                                                              • Cold drinks dominate the non-alcoholic drinks market
                                                                • Figure 16: Value sales for total non-alcoholic drinks, 2006-10
                                                              • Coffee market grows, both in-home and out
                                                                • Figure 17: Total value sales of in-home coffee and coffee shops, 2006-11 (est)
                                                              • In-home coffee
                                                                • Figure 18: Usage of coffee, 2010-11
                                                              • Out-of-home coffee
                                                              • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                                • Strengths
                                                                  • Weaknesses
                                                                  • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • Overall NPD slumps in 2011
                                                                        • Figure 19: Share of tea NPD within the total UK drinks market NPD, 2007-11
                                                                        • Figure 20: Total drinks NPD in the UK, by segment, 2011
                                                                      • Asda leads NPD
                                                                        • Figure 21: Product launches within the UK tea market, by brand, 2010-11
                                                                      • Standard tea dominates but camomile and fennel increase share
                                                                        • Figure 22: New product launches within the UK tea market, by flavour component, 2008-11
                                                                      • Own-label narrows the gap on branded teas in 2011
                                                                        • Figure 23: NPD in the UK tea market, by private label, 2007-11
                                                                      • Hot chocolate and malted drink NPD rises to recent high
                                                                        • Figure 24: Share of hot chocolate and malted drink NPD within the total UK drinks market, 2007-11
                                                                      • Own-label also gains share in other hot drinks
                                                                        • Figure 25: NPD in the UK hot chocolate and malted drinks market, by private label, 2007-11
                                                                    • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • The sales growth of tea stalls in 2011
                                                                          • Figure 26: UK retail value sales for in-home tea*, 2006-16
                                                                          • Figure 27: UK retail volume sales for in-home tea, 2006-16
                                                                        • Hot chocolate and malted drinks suffer from mild 2011
                                                                          • Figure 28: UK retail value sales for in-home hot chocolate and malted drinks, 2006-16
                                                                          • Figure 29: UK retail volume sales for in-home hot chocolate and malted drinks, 2006-16
                                                                        • The future of the tea and other hot drinks market
                                                                          • Tea market forecast
                                                                            • Figure 30: UK retail value sales of in-home tea, 2006-16
                                                                          • Hot chocolate and malted drinks market forecast
                                                                            • Figure 31: UK retail value sales of in-home hot chocolate and malted drinks, 2006-16
                                                                          • Forecast methodology
                                                                          • Segment Performance

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Tea sales by sector
                                                                                • Figure 32: UK retail value sales of in home tea, by sector, 2009-11
                                                                              • Ordinary bags
                                                                                • Fruit and herbal bags
                                                                                  • Green bags
                                                                                    • Loose tea
                                                                                      • Hot chocolate and malted drink sales
                                                                                        • Figure 33: UK retail value sales of hot chocolate and hot malted drink sectors, 2009-11
                                                                                        • Figure 34: Moving annual total volume sales of hot chocolate and malted drinks, October 2010-December 2011
                                                                                    • Market Share

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • PG Tips leads a competitive tea market
                                                                                          • Figure 35: Brand shares in tea, 2011
                                                                                          • Figure 36: Brand shares and value sales in tea, 2009-11
                                                                                        • PG Tips
                                                                                          • Twinings
                                                                                            • Tetley
                                                                                              • Yorkshire tea
                                                                                                • Typhoo
                                                                                                  • Own-brand
                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Brand shares and value sales in hot chocolate and malted drinks, 2010-11
                                                                                                • Companies and Products

                                                                                                  • Cadbury/Kraft
                                                                                                      • Figure 38: Products launched by Cadbury in the UK hot beverages market between January 2011 and November 2011
                                                                                                    • Associated British Foods
                                                                                                        • Figure 39: Products launched by Twinings in the UK tea and hot drinks market between January 2011 and November 2011
                                                                                                      • GlaxoSmithKline
                                                                                                        • Yorkshire Tea
                                                                                                          • Tetley
                                                                                                              • Figure 40: Products launched by Tetley in the UK tea and hot drinks market between January 2011 and November 2011
                                                                                                            • Unilever
                                                                                                                • Figure 41: Products launched by Unilever in the UK tea and hot drinks market between January 2011 and November 2011
                                                                                                            • Brand Research

                                                                                                              • Brand map
                                                                                                                  • Figure 42: Attitudes towards and usage of tea brands, October 2011
                                                                                                                • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                                  • Brand attitudes
                                                                                                                    • Figure 43: Attitudes by tea brand, October 2011
                                                                                                                  • Brand personality
                                                                                                                    • Figure 44: Tea brand personality – macro image, October 2011
                                                                                                                    • Figure 45: Tea brand personality – micro image, October 2011
                                                                                                                  • Brand experience
                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Tea brand usage*, October 2011
                                                                                                                    • Figure 47: Satisfaction with various tea brands, October 2011
                                                                                                                    • Figure 48: Consideration of tea brands, October 2011
                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Consumer perceptions of current tea brand performance, October 2011
                                                                                                                    • Figure 50: Tea brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, October 2011
                                                                                                                  • Brand index
                                                                                                                    • Figure 51: Tea brand index, October 2011
                                                                                                                    • Figure 52: Tea brand index vs. recommendation, October 2011
                                                                                                                  • Target group analysis
                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Target groups, October 2011
                                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Tea brand usage, by target groups, October 2011
                                                                                                                  • Group One – Conformists
                                                                                                                    • Group Two – Simply the Best
                                                                                                                      • Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
                                                                                                                        • Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
                                                                                                                          • Group Five – Individualists
                                                                                                                          • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                              • Total adspend rebounds in 2011
                                                                                                                                • Figure 55: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on tea and other hot drinks, 2007-11
                                                                                                                                • Figure 56: Advertising expenditure in the UK tea and hot drinks market, by brand, 2007-11
                                                                                                                              • Investment in TV advertising rockets in 2011
                                                                                                                                • Figure 57: Advertising expenditure in the UK tea and hot drinks market market, by media type, 2007-11
                                                                                                                            • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                • The big multiples dominate sales
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 58: Estimated retail distribution of tea and other hot drinks (excl. coffee), 2008-11
                                                                                                                                • Specialist tea shops are squeezed
                                                                                                                                • Consumer Usage of Tea

                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                    • Nine in ten adults drink tea
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 59: Usage of tea (including herbal tea) in last 12 months, 2010-11
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 60: Types of tea used in the last 12 months, 2010-11
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 61: Types of hot drinks drunk in the past six months, December 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Half the nation drink standard tea daily
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 62: Frequency of using English breakfast tea, December 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 63: Usage of English breakfast tea, by age group, December 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 64: Frequency of using English breakfast tea daily, by age group, December 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 65: Heavy users** of English breakfast tea, by socio-economic group, December 2011
                                                                                                                                  • Consumer Usage of Alternative Teas and Other Hot Drinks

                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                      • Penetration of other hot drinks declines
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 66: Frequency of using other hot drinks, 2010-11
                                                                                                                                      • 16-24s are top users of hot chocolate
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 67: Frequency of using hot chocolate, by age group, December 2011
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 68: Frequency of using hot malted drink/malted chocolate drink, by age group, December 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Women and under-35s drive usage in fruit and herbal and green tea
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 69: usage of fruit/herbal and green tea in the last 12 months, by gender and age group, December 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Consumer – Tea Usage by Format

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Usage of tea bags declines
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 70: Types of tea used, 2010-11
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 71: Types of tea used, by age group, 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Consumer – Tea Drinking Occasions

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • Nine in ten users brew up at home
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 72: Tea drinking occasions, December 2011
                                                                                                                                            • Social tea drinking is geared towards women and over-55s
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 73: Tea drinking occasions, ‘At a friend/relative’s house’ and ‘At a café/restaurant,’ by gender and age group, December 2011
                                                                                                                                            • The workplace is a crucial tea-drinking environment
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 74: Tea drinking occasions, ‘At work,’ by gender and age group, December 2011
                                                                                                                                          • Consumer – Attitudes Towards Tea

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Tea has the power to soothe and comfort
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 75: Attitudes towards standard tea, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 76: Agreement with the statement ‘drinking tea is comforting,’ by gender and working status, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                • Further potential for better quality and fair-trade teas…
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 77: Agreement with the statements ‘It is worth paying extra for tea with better quality leaves,’ and ‘I am prepared to pay more for fair-trade brands,’ by age group, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                • Demand for more flavours dramatically divides the generations
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 78: Agreement with the statement ‘I would buy more standard tea if there were more exciting flavours (eg with a hint of vanilla),’ by gender and age group, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                • English breakfast tea has a positive health image
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 79: Agreement with the statement ‘English breakfast tea is a healthy drink,’ by gender and age group, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                • Own-label is looked favourably upon by users
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 80: Agreement with the statements ‘Own-label tea is as good as branded tea,’ and ‘I buy whatever tea brand is on special offer,’ by age group, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                • Despite the popularisation of coffee culture, tea is not deemed less fashionable
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 81: Agreement with the statements ‘Drinking tea is not as fashionable as drinking coffee,’ and ‘I prefer the stronger hit of coffee to tea,’ by age group, December 2011
                                                                                                                                              • Consumer – Attitudes Towards Fruit/Herbal and Green Teas

                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                  • Lactose intolerance could benefit growth of infusion teas
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 82: Attitudes towards other teas, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                    • Large minority are undecided as to the health benefits of fruit and herbal tea
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 83: Agreement with the statements ‘Fruit/herbal tea is better for your health than English breakfast tea,’ and ‘I believe in their claimed health benefits,’ by gender and age group, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                    • Negative perceptions among young and male consumers are limiting market growth
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 84: Agreement with the statement ‘They are mainly for women,’ by gender and age group, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                    • Dissatisfaction with flavour is restricting growth
                                                                                                                                                    • Consumer – Attitudes Towards Hot Chocolate and Malted Drinks

                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                        • It may be more calorific, but hot chocolate made with milk is overwhelmingly the preferred choice
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 85: Attitudes towards hot chocolate and malted drinks, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 86: Agreement with the statements ‘I prefer to drink hot chocolate made with milk,’ and ‘I drink hot chocolate as an occasional treat,’ by gender and age group, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                          • The sleep-inducing appeal of hot malted drinks resonates most among women and 45-54s
                                                                                                                                                            • Demand for spicier flavours in hot chocolate peaks among 16-24s
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 87: Agreement with the statement ‘I would buy more interesting flavours of hot chocolate (eg ginger, cinnamon),’ by gender and age groups, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Hot chocolate is deemed unhealthy by under one in six
                                                                                                                                                            • Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                • Four target groups
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 88: Target groups, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                • Quality Checkers (25%)
                                                                                                                                                                  • Coffee Lovers (25%)
                                                                                                                                                                    • Ethicals (24%)
                                                                                                                                                                      • Price-Leds (26%)
                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Internal Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 89: Agreement to lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 90: Trends and projections in the UK population (‘000s), by age group, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 91: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK retail value sales of in-home tea, by value, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 92: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK retail volume sales of in-home tea, by value, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 93: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK retail value sales of in-home hot chocolate and malted drinks, by value, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 94: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK retail volume sales of in-home hot chocolate and malted drinks, by value, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 95: Brand usage, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 96: Brand commitment, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 97: Brand momentum, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 98: Brand diversity, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 99: Brand satisfaction, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 100: Brand recommendation, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 101: Brand attitude, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 102: brand image – macro image, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 103: Brand image – micro image, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 104: Profile of target groups, by demographics, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 105: Psychographic segmentation, by target group, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 106: Brand usage, by target group, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                        • Brand index
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 107: Brand index, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Consumer Usage of Tea

                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 108: Usage of tea (including herbal tea) in last 12 months, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 109: Kinds of tea used, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 110: Frequency of usage of English breakfast tea, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 111: Types of tea used, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Usage of Other Hot Drinks

                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 112: Frequency of using other hot drinks by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 113: Frequency of usage of hot chocolate (using water or milk, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 114: Frequency of usage of hot malted drink/malted chocolate drink, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Consumer – Tea Usage by Format

                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 115: Types of tea used, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Tea Drinking Occasions

                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 116: Tea drinking occasions, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Drinking Standard Tea

                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 117: Agreement with the statements ‘Own-label tea is as good as branded tea’ and ‘It is worth paying extra for tea with better quality leaves’, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 118: Agreement with the statements ‘I am prepared to pay more for fair-trade brands’ and ‘Drinking tea is comforting’, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 119: Agreement with the statements ‘I would buy more standard tea if there were more exciting flavours’ and ‘Drinking tea is not as fashionable as drinking coffee’, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 120: Agreement with the statements ‘I buy whatever tea brand is on special offer’ and ‘English breakfast tea is a healthy drink’, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 121: Agreement with the statements ‘I would drink more loose-leaf tea if I had the time to prepare it’ and ‘I prefer the stronger hit of coffee to tea’, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Attitudes Towards Other Teas

                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 122: Agreement with the statements ‘Fruit/herbal tea is better for your health than English breakfast tea’ and ‘I enjoy experimenting with different flavours of fruit/herbal tea’, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 123: Agreement with the statements ‘Fruit/herbal teas are worth the extra cost’ and ‘They tend not to require milk unlike other hot drinks’, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 124: Agreement with the statements ‘Compared with tradition English breakfast tea, fruit tea tastes too bitter’ and ‘They are mainly for women’, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 125: Agreement with the statements ‘I believe in their claimed health benefits’ and ‘I have drunk less of these in the past year to save money’, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 126: Agreement with the statements ‘Fruit tea smells nice buts doesn’t really taste of anything’, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Attitudes Towards Hot Chocolate and Malted Drinks

                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 127: Most popular attitudes towards hot chocolate and malted drinks, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 128: Next most popular attitudes towards hot chocolate and malted drinks, by demographics, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 129: Attitudes towards standard/English breakfast tea, by target group, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 130: Attitudes towards standard/English breakfast tea, by target group, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 131: Tea drinking occasions, by target group, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 132: Attitudes towards other teas, by target group, December 2011
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 133: Attitudes towards hot chocolate and malted drinks, by target group, December 2011

                                                                                                                                                                      Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                      • Associated British Foods Plc
                                                                                                                                                                      • Cadbury Schweppes Plc
                                                                                                                                                                      • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                      • Fairtrade Foundation (The)
                                                                                                                                                                      • GlaxoSmithKline Plc
                                                                                                                                                                      • Good Earth Natural Foods
                                                                                                                                                                      • Good Housekeeping
                                                                                                                                                                      • Green & Black's Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                      • Kraft Foods UK
                                                                                                                                                                      • R Twining and Company Limited
                                                                                                                                                                      • Rainforest Alliance
                                                                                                                                                                      • Tata Coffee
                                                                                                                                                                      • Tetley Group
                                                                                                                                                                      • The Fairtrade Foundation
                                                                                                                                                                      • The Redbush Tea Company Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                      • Unilever Bestfoods UK Ltd

                                                                                                                                                                      Tea and Other Hot Drinks - UK - February 2012

                                                                                                                                                                      £1,750.00 (Excl.Tax)