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Telecoms - UK - April 2009

Aggressive expansion by the mobile phone network operators has not only changed the dynamics of the mobile phone retail market but has also altered the landscape of UK retail.

Intense competition in the market has lead to proliferation of mobile phone stores, making the likes of O2, Orange and Vodafone some of the most high profile brands on the high street.

But can this continue? Have the networks over-expanded and will the pendulum swing back towards the independents and non-specialists?

Added to this, we have an ageing consumer profile, an economic downturn, increasingly complex technology, and some high-profile retail MVNOs. All of which are set to impact the market during 2009.

Key themes

  • Are mobile phones really must-have items and therefore relatively immune to the squeeze on discretionary spending?

  • What opportunities are there for mobile phone networks and retailers to grow their business during the economic downturn?

  • How are retailers adapting to the changing UK retail environment and an ageing customer base?

  • Do recent developments in phone technology require retailers to adopt a different approach?

  • How are retailer-MVNOs being used to target specific segments and niche markets?

  • Are independents set to make a comeback?

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Table of contents

  1. Issues in the Market

      • Key themes
        • Definitions
          • Abbreviations
          • Future Opportunities

            • Exploit the need to stay connected?
              • How to attract more female mobile phone shoppers online?
                • Can “smartphones” offer “life-hacking” opportunities?
                • Market in Brief

                  • Network stores continue to dominate the mobile phone retail market
                    • What is worrying mobile phone retailers?
                      • 3G finally starting to take off?
                        • New stores for new products
                          • Flat-rate pricing accelerating the decline of fixed line
                          • Internal Market Environment

                            • Key points
                              • Gap between mobile and fixed-line revenues broadens
                                • Figure 1: UK: Fixed access and call revenues and mobile revenues, 2002-07
                              • 3G connections rising
                                • Figure 2: UK: Number of active 3G mobile connections per 100 inhabitants, 2002-07
                              • Contract v. pay-as-you-go
                                • Figure 3: GB: Type of mobile phone contract used, 2004, 2006 & 2008
                            • Broader Market Environment

                              • Key points
                                • PDI
                                  • Figure 4: PDI: Total personal disposable income, 2003-13
                                • Waning consumer confidence
                                  • Figure 5: UK: Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index, May 2004-Jan 2009
                                • An ageing population
                                  • Figure 6: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2003-13
                              • Who’s Innovating?

                                • Key points
                                  • Carphone re-invents the mobile phone store
                                    • More live handsets in store?
                                      • Social networking on the move
                                        • Cash-back is king
                                          • Free phones come to pay-as-you-go
                                          • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                            • Strengths
                                              • Weaknesses
                                              • Market Size and Forecast

                                                • Key points
                                                  • Multiple phone subscriptions
                                                    • Figure 7: Mobile phone subscribers, 2003-08
                                                  • Market size and forecast
                                                      • Figure 8: UK retail sales of mobile phone handsets (including contract), by volume and value, 2003-13
                                                    • Factors used in the forecast
                                                    • Sector Sales and Forecasts

                                                      • Key points
                                                        • Economic outlook
                                                          • Retail prospects
                                                            • Actions speak louder than words?
                                                              • Mobile phone specialists
                                                                • ONS retail sales data
                                                                    • Figure 9: UK: Miscellaneous specialist retailers’ sales, 2004-13
                                                                • Retail Competitor Analysis

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Leading mobile phone retailers
                                                                      • Figure 10: Leading mobile phone retailers, 2008
                                                                    • Network stores – O2
                                                                      • Network stores – the others
                                                                        • Carphone Warehouse
                                                                          • Phones 4U
                                                                            • Tesco and the other supermarkets
                                                                              • Their growth is based on:
                                                                                • Virgin Mobile affected by Woolworths and Zavvi closures
                                                                                  • Evaluation
                                                                                    • Figure 11: Leading mobile phone retailers, 2008
                                                                                • Brand Elements

                                                                                    • Brand map
                                                                                      • Figure 12: Attitudes and usage of telecoms retail brands, October 2007
                                                                                    • The Carphone Warehouse
                                                                                      • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                        • Figure 13: Attitudes towards the Carphone Warehouse brand of retail stores, January 2009
                                                                                      • Phones 4U
                                                                                        • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                          • Figure 14: Attitudes towards the Phones 4U brand of retail stores, January 2009
                                                                                        • Vodafone stores
                                                                                          • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                            • Figure 15: Attitudes towards the Vodafone brand of retail stores, January 2009
                                                                                          • Orange stores
                                                                                            • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                              • Figure 16: Attitudes towards the Orange brand of retail stores, January 2009
                                                                                            • O2 stores
                                                                                              • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                • Figure 17: Attitudes towards O2 brand of retail stores, January 2009
                                                                                              • Experience of telecoms retail brands
                                                                                                • Argos is most popular
                                                                                                  • Figure 18: Consumer usage of various telecoms retail brands, January 2009
                                                                                                • Brand intentions for telecoms retail brands
                                                                                                  • 3 Store has the lowest brand consideration
                                                                                                    • Figure 19: Consideration of various telecoms retail brands, January 2009
                                                                                                  • Brand satisfaction for telecoms retail brands
                                                                                                    • O2 has most excellent satisfaction
                                                                                                      • Figure 20: Satisfaction with various telecoms retail brands, January 2009
                                                                                                    • Round-up
                                                                                                    • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                        • Networks dominate adspend in the sector
                                                                                                          • Figure 21: Top 25 advertising spenders in the mobile network and handset sector, 2006-08
                                                                                                        • T-Mobile trying to claw back market share
                                                                                                          • Figure 22: Total network subscribers, by network operators, 2003-08
                                                                                                        • Handset makers will need to up the ante
                                                                                                          • And an even busier market set for 2009
                                                                                                            • Music a continuing focus of 2008
                                                                                                              • Figure 23: Total advertising spend in the mobile network and handset sector, by media type, 2006-08
                                                                                                          • Where do Consumers Buy Mobile Phones?

                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                • Figure 24: Stores where internet respondents purchased their latest main mobile from, December 2008
                                                                                                              • Networks dominate distribution
                                                                                                                  • Figure 25: Stores where internet respondents purchased their latest main mobile from, December 2008
                                                                                                                • Independents and supermarkets stronger in-store than online
                                                                                                                    • Figure 26: Stores where internet respondents purchased their latest main mobile from, December 2008
                                                                                                                  • Women show greater preference for shopping in store
                                                                                                                      • Figure 27: Comparison between those buying their latest main mobile via online and offline channels, December 2008
                                                                                                                    • Younger consumers buying phones online
                                                                                                                      • Figure 28: Comparison between those buying their latest main mobile via online and offline channels, by detailed demographics, December 2008
                                                                                                                      • Figure 29: Comparison between those buying their latest main mobile via online and offline channels, by detailed demographics, December 2008
                                                                                                                    • Customers of 3 nearly twice as likely to have bought online
                                                                                                                      • E-commerce already an important channel
                                                                                                                          • Figure 30: Method internet respondents used when it came to buying their latest main mobile, December 2008
                                                                                                                      • Motivations for Shopping at a Particular Retailer (Online and In Store)

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Topline responses
                                                                                                                            • Figure 31: Motivations for using a particular website or shop to buy latest main mobile handset, December 2008
                                                                                                                          • 20-34s more price-sensitive when it comes to the package
                                                                                                                            • Figure 32: “Offered the cheapest deal for the package I wanted”, by age group, December 2008
                                                                                                                          • The handset’s the thing!
                                                                                                                          • Mobile Phone Usage Habits

                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                              • Used a lot, but not the advanced features
                                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Mobile phone usage habits, December 2008
                                                                                                                              • Men are from Mars, women are from Venus
                                                                                                                                • 3G exposes the generation gap
                                                                                                                                  • In store versus online
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 34: Consumers’ mobile phone usage habits, by in store/online, December 2008
                                                                                                                                • The Carphone Warehouse

                                                                                                                                    • Strategic evaluation
                                                                                                                                      • History
                                                                                                                                        • Carphone and Best Buy
                                                                                                                                          • Financial performance
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 35: The Carphone Warehouse: Group financial performance, 2003/04–2007/08
                                                                                                                                          • Business segments
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 36: The Carphone Warehouse: Distribution division turnover, 2003/04–2007/08
                                                                                                                                          • Retail (including Online)
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 37: The Carphone Warehouse: Retail turnover, 2003/04–2007/08
                                                                                                                                          • Turnover by country
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 38: The Carphone Warehouse: Group turnover by region, 2003/04–2007/08
                                                                                                                                          • Store portfolio
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 39: The Carphone Warehouse: Outlet data, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 40: The Carphone Warehouse: Company-owned and franchised outlet data, 2004–08
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 41: The Carphone Warehouse: Sales per m2 in company-owned stores, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                          • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                            • Market positioning
                                                                                                                                              • Brands
                                                                                                                                                • Product offer
                                                                                                                                                  • Pricing
                                                                                                                                                    • Advertising and marketing
                                                                                                                                                      • e-commerce and home shopping
                                                                                                                                                      • Hutchison 3G

                                                                                                                                                          • Strategic evaluation
                                                                                                                                                            • Financial performance
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 42: 3 Group: Financial performance, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                                            • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                              • Market positioning
                                                                                                                                                                • Brands
                                                                                                                                                                • France Telecom (Orange)

                                                                                                                                                                    • Strategic evaluation
                                                                                                                                                                      • History
                                                                                                                                                                        • Financial performance
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 43: France Telecom: Financial performance, 2003–2007
                                                                                                                                                                        • Personal Communication Services
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 44: France Telecom: Personal Communication Services, Turnover by Country, 2004-07
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 45: France Telecom: Market share and Customer Numbers within its European markets, 2007
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 46: France Telecom: Home Communication Services revenue, 2004-07
                                                                                                                                                                        • Q3 2008
                                                                                                                                                                          • Store portfolio
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 47: France Telecom: France and UK outlet data 2003-07
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 48: France Telecom: Outlet data outside UK and France, December 2007
                                                                                                                                                                            • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                              • Market positioning
                                                                                                                                                                                • Packages
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Brands
                                                                                                                                                                                    • e-commerce
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Nokia

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Strategic evaluation
                                                                                                                                                                                          • A radically changed market
                                                                                                                                                                                            • The next wave?
                                                                                                                                                                                              • History
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Financial performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Nokia Corporation: Group financial performance, 2003-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Financial performance by business segment
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 50: Nokia Corporation: Financial performance, by business segment, 2003-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Mobile devices
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Developing regions post fastest growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 51: Nokia Corporation: Nokia Mobile Devices, volume, by geographic area, growth 2004-08 and share by region in total 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 52: Nokia Corporation: Nokia Mobile Devices, volume by geographic area, 2003-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Store portfolio
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Flagship stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Branded stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 53: Nokia Corporation: Nokia-branded stores in selected European countries, March 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Market positioning
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Product offer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Services
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Brands
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Advertising and marketing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • e-commerce
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 54: Nokia Corporation: Nokia transactional websites in Europe, January 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Phones 4U

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Strategic evaluation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Working on image
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Differentiating in a crowded market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Volatile relations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • History
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Financial performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 55: Phones 4U: Group financial performance, 2003-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Store portfolio
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 56: Phones 4U: Outlet data, 2003-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Market positioning
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Product offer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Advertising and marketing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • e-commerce and home shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Telefonica/Telefonica Europe (O2)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • History
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 57: Telefónica, SA: Financial performance, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Telefónica Spain
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Telefónica Europe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Telefónica O2 UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Store portfolio
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Market positioning
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Product offer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Brands
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • e-commerce
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • T-Mobile

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • History
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Financial performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 58: Deutsche Telekom AG: Mobile Communication Europe, Financial performance, 2006/08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 59: Deutsche Telekom AG: Mobile Communication Europe: Revenue by country/region, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 60: Deutsche Telekom AG: Mobile Communications Europe, Customer Development, 2005-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Store portfolio
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 61: T-Mobile: Outlet data, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Germany
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Czech Republic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Austria
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Market positioning
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Product offer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • e-commerce
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Virgin Mobile

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Strategic evaluation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Losing identity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • History
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Financial performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Store portfolio
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Product offer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Advertising and marketing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • e-commerce
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Vodafone

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Strategic evaluation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • History
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Financial performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Vodafone Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 62: Vodafone Group: Group financial performance, 2003/04-2007/08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Revenue by country
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 63: Vodafone Group: European revenue by country, 2003/04–2007/08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 64: Vodafone Group: Number of customers by country, 2003/04–2007/08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Vodafone Distribution (retail outlets)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 65: Vodafone Distribution Limited (Retail outlets): Financial performance, 2003-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Store portfolio
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 66: Vodafone Group: Outlet data, 2004/05–2007/08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 67: Vodafone Distribution Limited (Retail outlets): Outlet data, 2003-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Retail offering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Market positioning
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Brands
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Where Do Consumers Buy Their Mobile Phone?

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 68: Outlets (online and offline) internet respondents purchased their latest main mobile from, by detailed demographics, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 69: Outlets (online and offline) internet respondents purchased their latest main mobile from, by detailed demographics, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 70: Comparison between those buying their latest main mobile via online and offline channels, by detailed demographics, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 71: Comparison between those buying their latest main mobile from a network store, independent specialist and supermarkets, by detailed demographics, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 72: Method internet respondents used when it came to buying their latest main mobile, by detailed demographics, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Motivations for Shopping at a Particular Retailer (Online and In Store)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 73: Motivations for using a particular website or shop to buy latest main mobile handset, by detailed demographics, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 74: Motivations for using a particular website or shop to buy latest main mobile handset, by detailed demographics, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 75: Motivations for using a particular website or shop to buy latest main mobile handset, by detailed demographics, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Mobile Phone Usage Habits

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 76: Mobile phone usage habits, by detailed demographics, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 77: Mobile phone usage habits, by detailed demographics, December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 78: Mobile phone usage habits, by detailed demographics, December 2008

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Academy Music Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Acer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Aldi Stores Ltd (UK & Ireland)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Amazon.co.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Apax Partners
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Apple Computer UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Argos
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • British Market Research Bureau (BMRB)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • British Retail Consortium
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • British Sky Broadcasting Group plc (BSkyB)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • BT Group plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Carrefour
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Conad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Currys
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Deutsche Bahn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Deutsche Telekom AG
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Google UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • HMV Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • HomeChoice
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • HTC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Hutchison 3G UK Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • LG Electronics (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Lidl (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • mmO2 plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Mobistar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Nielsen Media Research, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Nokia Corporation (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • NTT DoCoMo Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Ofcom
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Office for National Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Orange plc (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Phones 4U Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Research in Motion Uk Ltd.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Samsung Electronics (UK) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Skype Technologies S.A.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Sony (UK) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • T-Mobile (UK) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Tchibo
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Telefónica UK Ltd.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Telenor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The Carphone Warehouse Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Tiscali UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Virgin Media Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Virgin Mobile
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Vodafone Group Plc (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Wm Morrison Supermarkets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Woolworths Group plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Yahoo! UK & Ireland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Zavvi

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Telecoms - UK - April 2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)