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The Future of Rail Travel - March 2014

The objective of this report is to provide an overview of future developments of rail travel. The main sections of the report include:

  • a summary outlook for economic growth and spending on travel and tourism worldwide;
  • a review of current and future high-speed rail (HSR) development;
  • a glimpse of some important technological developments;
  • an analysis of rail’s competiveness with other forms of motorised transport;
  • a review of rail travel by major country;
  • an overview of current and future trends in rail travel distribution, and a look at some key factors that will impact the future of rail travel.

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Report objectives and structure
        • Key findings
        • Data Sources

          • Abbreviations

            • Issues in the Market

                • Growth of high-speed lines
                  • Distribution
                    • Financing
                      • Technological development
                        • Competition with air travel
                        • Global Summary

                              • Figure 1: Forecasted GDP growth & other economic data, by region and major country, January 2014*
                            • Forecast for growth in travel and tourism spending
                              • Figure 2: Leisure & business travel spending, by region, 2013-20*
                          • Rankings of Rail Travel Markets Worldwide

                              • Quality of railway infrastructure
                                • Figure 3: Quality of railroad infrastructure, average 2012-13
                              • Passenger-km of rail transport per year
                                • Figure 4: Countries with more than 5 billion passenger-km, 2014*
                              • Passengers carried in rail transport per year
                                • Figure 5: Countries with more than 100 million passengers, 2014*
                                • Figure 6: Passenger-km per head of population, 2014*
                            • Growth of High-speed Lines

                                • Outlook for growth
                                  • Figure 7: Countries with high-speed lines or plans for a high-speed line, November 2013
                                  • Figure 8: Development of HSR worldwide, 1964-2024
                                • Worldwide HSR network
                                  • Figure 9: HSR, by region, in operation, under construction and planned, 1 November 2013
                                • Asia
                                  • China
                                    • Figure 10: China’s HSR network, 1 November 2013
                                    • Figure 11: China’s HSR lines under construction, 1 November 2013*
                                    • Figure 12: China’s planned HSR lines, 1 November 2013
                                  • Taiwan
                                    • Figure 13: Taiwan’s HSR lines, 1 November 2013
                                  • India
                                    • Figure 14: India’s planned HSR lines, 1 November 2013
                                  • Japan
                                    • Figure 15: Japan’s HSR network, 1 November 2013
                                    • Figure 16: Japan’s HSR lines under construction, 1 November 2013
                                    • Figure 17: Japan’s planned HSR lines, 1 November 2013
                                  • Saudi Arabia
                                    • Figure 18: Saudi Arabia’s HSR lines under construction, 1 November 2013
                                  • South Korea
                                    • Figure 19: South Korea’s HSR lines, 1 November 2013
                                    • Figure 20: South Korea’s HSR lines under construction, 1 November 2013
                                    • Figure 21: South Korea’s planned HSR lines, 1 November 2013
                                  • Turkey
                                    • Figure 22: Turkey’s HSR lines, 1 November 2013
                                    • Figure 23: Turkey’s HSR lines under construction, 1 November 2013
                                    • Figure 24: Turkey’s planned HSR lines, 1 November 2013
                                  • Europe
                                    • Austria
                                      • Figure 25: Austria’s HSR network, 1 November 2013
                                    • Belgium
                                      • Figure 26: Belgium’s HSR network, 1 November 2013
                                    • France
                                      • Figure 27: France’s HSR network, 1 November 2013
                                      • Figure 28: France’s HSR lines under construction, 1 November 2013
                                      • Figure 29: France’s planned HSR lines, 1 November 2013
                                    • Germany
                                      • Figure 30: Germany’s HSR network, 1 November 2013
                                      • Figure 31: Germany’s HSR lines under construction, 1 November 2013
                                      • Figure 32: Germany’s planned HSR lines, 1 November 2013*
                                    • Italy
                                      • Figure 33: Italy’s HSR network, 1 November 2013
                                      • Figure 34: Italy’s planned HSR lines, 1 November 2013
                                    • Netherlands
                                      • Figure 35: Italy’s HSR network, 1 November 2013
                                    • Poland
                                      • Figure 36: Poland’s planned HSR lines, 1 November 2013
                                    • Portugal
                                      • Figure 37: Portugal’s planned HSR lines, 1 November 2013*
                                    • Russia
                                      • Figure 38: Russia’s planned HSR lines, 1 November 2013
                                    • Spain
                                      • Figure 39: Spain’s HSR network, 1 November 2013
                                      • Figure 40: Spain’s HSR lines under construction, 1 November 2013*
                                      • Figure 41: Spain’s planned HSR lines, 1 November 2013*
                                    • Sweden
                                      • Figure 42: Sweden’s planned HSR lines, 1 November 2013
                                    • Switzerland
                                      • Figure 43: Switzerland’s HSR lines, 1 November 2013
                                      • Figure 44: Switzerland’s HSR lines under construction, 1 November 2013
                                    • UK
                                      • Figure 45: UK’s HSR lines, 1 November 2013
                                      • Figure 46: UK’s HSR lines under construction, 1 November 2013
                                    • Rest of the world
                                      • Brazil
                                        • Figure 47: Brazil’s planned HSR lines, 1 November 2013
                                      • Morocco
                                        • Figure 48: Morocco’s HSR lines under construction, 1 November 2013
                                        • Figure 49: Morocco’s planned HSR lines, 1 November 2013
                                      • US
                                        • Figure 50: US’ HSR lines, 1 November 2013
                                        • Figure 51: US’s planned HSR lines, 1 November 2013
                                    • Distribution

                                        • Universal Rail Ticketing
                                          • Rail Europe rebranded as Voyages-sncf.com
                                            • Partners
                                              • Thomas Cook’s European Rail Timetable revived
                                                • SilverRail aims to create seamless searches for rail
                                                  • Loco2 offers single ticket pan-European train travel
                                                    • Mobile booking also growing for rail
                                                      • Figure 52: Mobile ticketing offerings from selected rail operators, 2013
                                                    • Amtrak mobile apps
                                                      • National Rail Enquiries 1 million app downloads
                                                        • Seat61.com
                                                          • Evolvi serves TMCs
                                                            • Air-rail alliances
                                                            • Financing

                                                              • Technological Development

                                                                  • How fast is fast enough?
                                                                    • Figure 53: History of electrical traction rail-speed records, 1901-2007
                                                                  • Speed efficiency
                                                                    • Figure 54: Time to travel 100km at various speeds, 2012
                                                                    • Figure 55: Travel time for several speeds & distances, 2012
                                                                  • Optimum speed
                                                                      • Figure 56: Optimum speed as function of length of line, 2012
                                                                  • Competition with Air Travel

                                                                      • Four hours or less
                                                                        • Rail taking over
                                                                          • Figure 57: Eurostar travel times, 2014
                                                                        • Chinese airlines feeling the pinch
                                                                          • Case study
                                                                            • Airlines fight back
                                                                              • Cloudy outlook
                                                                              • Outlook by Major Rail Market Worldwide

                                                                                  • Africa
                                                                                    • A renaissance for African rail
                                                                                      • EAC Railways Development Master Plan
                                                                                        • Tanzania, Zambia and DRC collaboration
                                                                                          • Chinese funding finances African rail projects
                                                                                            • Mombasa–Nairobi (Kenya)
                                                                                              • Corredor Logístico Integrado de Nacala (CLN) (Mozambique)
                                                                                                • Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)–Djibouti
                                                                                                  • Kigali (Rwanda)–Mombasa via Kampala (Uganda)   
                                                                                                    • Casablanca–Tangier High-Speed line (Morocco)
                                                                                                      • Egypt
                                                                                                          • Figure 58: Egyptian National Railways’ rolling stock, 2013
                                                                                                        • Recent developments
                                                                                                          • Rail thefts reported
                                                                                                            • Sinai line in a shambles
                                                                                                              • Bridge across Suez closed
                                                                                                                • A dream of HSR
                                                                                                                  • South Africa
                                                                                                                    • PRASA Technical
                                                                                                                      • Signalling upgrade
                                                                                                                        • Gautrain
                                                                                                                          • Rolling stock
                                                                                                                            • New Gautrain routes
                                                                                                                              • Asia Pacific
                                                                                                                                • China
                                                                                                                                  • Half the world’s high-speed lines
                                                                                                                                    • Concentration in the south
                                                                                                                                      • High-speed link from Beijing to Shenyang
                                                                                                                                        • High-speed train for Hong Kong–Guangzhou line unveiled
                                                                                                                                          • Procurement trends
                                                                                                                                            • Chinese high-speed trains for export
                                                                                                                                              • India
                                                                                                                                                • Turnaround Phase 1 (2000-04) 
                                                                                                                                                  • Phase 2 (2004-08) 
                                                                                                                                                    • Assemble a competent change team
                                                                                                                                                      • Set a high-level agenda
                                                                                                                                                        • Create a new slogan for organisation-wide communication
                                                                                                                                                          • Set the team free and back them fully
                                                                                                                                                            • Ongoing expansion and upgrading
                                                                                                                                                              • Private investment in railway projects
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 59: Private investment in railway projects, August 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Inter-City AC double-decker trains introduced
                                                                                                                                                                • More capacity
                                                                                                                                                                  • Better amenities
                                                                                                                                                                    • A corporation to develop HSR
                                                                                                                                                                      • Seven HSR routes under consideration
                                                                                                                                                                        • 350km per hour – But only in the long run
                                                                                                                                                                          • Japan
                                                                                                                                                                            • Alstom and J-TREC target the light-rail market
                                                                                                                                                                              • JR East’s first Series E7 high-speed train
                                                                                                                                                                                • Sustina EMU prototype on test
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Osaka to Tokyo in 67 minutes
                                                                                                                                                                                    • A Tokyo waterfront metro line
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Sleeper trains to be phased out
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Malaysia
                                                                                                                                                                                          • South Korea
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Europe
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 60: Railway passenger-km, by European country, 1990-2011
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Deregulating the European rail market
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Austria
                                                                                                                                                                                                • ÖBB targets infrastructure savings
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Track monitoring
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • New-build savings
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Renewal project savings
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Specific cost savings
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Semmering base tunnel
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • WESTbahn shakes up the market
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Benelux
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Eurostar extension
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Financial difficulties
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Denmark
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The new line
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Engineering aspects
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Construction phase
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • France
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • French rail reform bill
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Outlook for French rail development until 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Expected changes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • The Atlantic project 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Projects under construction
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 61: Schedule for projects under construction, 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 62: Key figures for projects under construction, 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • TGV – Paris to Barcelona
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Bordeaux–Toulouse/Dax high-speed lines
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • French regions buy more Bombardier EMUs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Flexible configuration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • FNAUT defends the interests of local travel
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 63: Key figures for TER in 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • FNAUT’s warning
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Airport express train Paris–Roissy CDG
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Door-to-door service
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Germany
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Infrastructure spending of €4.6 billion in 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • 21 nature destinations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • 35% green energy by 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • A high GRI rating
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Customers pay green tax
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Italy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • NTV is fast-growing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 64: NTV shareholders, 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Distribution
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • NTV’s research department
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Europe’s fastest train
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Italy and Switzerland sign agreement
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Switzerland to fund Italian gauge enhancement
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Poland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Three categories of trains
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • TLK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • PKP Intercity in figures – According to the 2011/12 schedule
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • A Polish Pendolino
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Russia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • A US$37.8-billion three-year investment plan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • High speed on the agenda
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Kazan instead of St Petersburg
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • To Kazan, via Vladimir, Nizhny Novgorod and Cheboksary
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • International interest
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • HSR tender delayed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Spain
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Rail operations restructured
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Rail spending to continue in 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Passenger market to open up in 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • New high-speed lines to France
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Switzerland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • FAIF voted on 9 February
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 65: Planned enhancements of Swiss rail services by 2025
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Starbucks on the rails
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • 24-hour customer service hotline
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • End of programme to upgrade design of on-train toilets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Turkey
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Tunnel linking Asia and Europe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • HSR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 66: Current high-speed train route travel times in Turkey, November 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Historic Haydarpaşa Station to become a museum
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Istanbul–Ankara high-speed trains
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Testing on the Ankara–Istanbul high-speed line
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Longer-term outlook
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Capacity strained
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Strong growth predicted for the West Coast Main Line
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • HS2 enjoys broad-based political support
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Alternative solutions unworkable
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Phase 1 of HS2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Phase 2 of HS2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • First-class seating to be scaled back
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • High rail prices impacting commuters and travellers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Fare revenue breakdown
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 67: Breakdown of £1 of fare revenue, by cost & profit factors, 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Fare rises regressive
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Tourism also impacted
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • China offers to finance HSR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Network Rail invests £100 million
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Plan for a new London–Edinburgh service
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK recovery boosts Eurostar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Preparing for competition on the cross-channel route
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Expansion plans
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • A new service to the south of France
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • New HS2 assessment in March
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • An HSR engineering college
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Latin America
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Brazil
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • HSR project delayed but not cancelled
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Long-term rail investment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 68: Group 1 – routes up for bidding in August 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 69: Group 2 – routes up for bidding in 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Rio Metro tunnel section completed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Middle East
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Saudi Arabia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Haramain High Speed Rail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Saudi–Bahrain Railway Bridge
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • GCC rail project 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 70: Total length of the railway line in each GCC country, 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 71: Projected passenger volumes, by mode of transport (000 of passengers), 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Riyadh Metro
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Mecca Mass Transit scheme
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Jeddah Metro
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • North America
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Canada
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Passenger services
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • US
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Amtrak the main operator
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • State-supported and other short-distance routes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Long-distance routes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Amtrak upgrades Wi-Fi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • US rail infrastructure
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • California High-Speed Rail Authority
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • HSR, the best solution for the future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Initial Operating Section
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Future project funding
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Legal hurdles still to be overcome however…
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • High-speed train bid
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • What Next?

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Virtual agents
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Li-Fi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 4G
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Ticketless travel
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Hyper-speed rail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The evolving role of stations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Loyalty schemes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Amtrak Guest Rewards
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • East Coast Rewards
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Passenger entertainment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Improved signage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Environmental concerns favour rail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 52: Comparative energy efficiency of different modes of transport, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 53: Comparison of carbon-dioxide emissions between different types of transport, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 54: Comparison in land use between motorway and HSR line, 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Companies Covered

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      The Future of Rail Travel - March 2014

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