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The NASFT State of the Industry Report – The Market - May 2013

Mintel and the National Association for the Specialty Food Trade (NASFT) have collaborated to produce the tenth annual State of the Industry Report – The Market, following the first report published in May 2004. The purpose of this report is simply to show changes in the industry as a whole, and in the specific segments included here.

Specialty foods are broadly defined for this report as products that have limited distribution and a reputation for high quality. These items continue to gain in popularity—and are easier to find in all kinds of outlets—as the American consumer has developed a more sophisticated and discerning palate.

This report encompasses three years of sales data (2010, 2011, and 2012) across 59 segments (though most often the tabulated data captures the primary 51 segments), and discusses the positive and negative factors that may have a bearing on each segment’s future growth or decline. Also, as in previous years, included in this report is a comprehensive look at distribution channels within the specialty food trade, from importer and broker to retailer.

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • Introduction
      • Definition of specialty food
        • SPINS Specialty Gourmet and Natural Standard coding
          • Brand positioning
            • Segment definitions and examples
              • Channel data
                • Sales data
                  • The 2013 Mintel/NASFT survey
                    • Abbreviations and terms
                      • Abbreviations
                        • Terms
                        • Executive Summary

                          • The $86 billion specialty food market
                            • Figure 1: Total U.S. sales of specialty foods, by share, 2012
                          • Natural retailers fastest-growing channel in 2010-12
                            • Figure 2: Sales of specialty foods by retail channel, at current prices, 2010-12
                          • The impact of the U.S. economy – mixed, but better than it was
                            • Decline in specialty food innovation?
                              • Figure 3: Premium food and beverage product launches in all outlets, by segment, 2010-12
                            • Market segmentation
                              • Supply surveys: manufacturers, importers, distributors, and brokers
                                • Topline results for 2012
                                  • Specialty food retailer survey
                                    • Topline results for 2012
                                    • Market Factors

                                      • Specialty food market continued to reach new highs in 2012
                                        • Figure 4: Total U.S. retail dollar sales of specialty foods, at current prices, 2010-12
                                      • The price of food
                                        • Figure 5: Changes in food price indexes, 2010-13
                                      • Spending on food increases in 2011
                                        • Figure 6: Average expenditures of all consumer units for food at home and away from home, 2009-11
                                      • The economic impact
                                        • Little change in disposable personal income
                                          • Figure 7: Real personal disposable income, January 2007-November 2012
                                        • Decline in household income
                                          • Figure 8: Median household income in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2001-11
                                        • Still-high levels of unemployment and underemployment
                                          • Figure 9: Unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007-December 2012
                                        • Americans save less as the economy improves, impacting the type of specialty food purchases
                                          • Figure 10: Personal savings rate, by quarter, October 2002-12
                                        • Total population growth a small but positive influence on sales
                                            • Figure 11: Population by age, 2008-18
                                          • New premium food and beverage launches
                                            • Figure 12: Premium food and beverage product launches in all outlets, by segment and share of total, 2010-12
                                            • Figure 13: Premium food and beverage product launches in all outlets, by top claims and share of total, 2010-12
                                            • Figure 14: Name brand versus private label premium food and beverage product launches in all outlets, 2010-12
                                        • Market Size and Trends

                                            • Sales in retail channels exceed $68 billion in 2012
                                              • Figure 15: Total U.S. retail dollar sales of specialty foods, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                            • Sales of specialty foods by retail channel
                                              • Figure 16: Sales of specialty foods by retail channel, 2010-12
                                            • Estimating the total specialty food universe
                                              • Figure 17: Total U.S. sales of specialty foods, 2010-12
                                          • Market Segmentation

                                              • Specialty food sales by segment
                                                • Figure 18: Sales of specialty food, by food and beverage segment, 2010 and 2012
                                                • Figure 19: Total sales (specialty and non-specialty) in market segments included in specialty universe, through FDM and natural/specialty outlets, 2010 and 2012
                                                • Figure 20: Specialty foods as a percentage of all food sales, by segment, 2011 and 2012
                                                • Figure 21: Sales growth or decline for all foods and specialty foods, by segment, 2010-12
                                                • Figure 22: Unit sales of specialty foods, 2010-12
                                            • Segment Analysis

                                                • Performance highlights
                                                  • 01) Cheese and cheese alternatives
                                                    • Figure 23: Sales of specialty and all cheese and cheese alternatives, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                  • 02) Yogurt and kefir
                                                    • Figure 24: Sales of specialty and all yogurt and kefir, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                  • 03) Chips, pretzels, and snacks
                                                      • Figure 25: Sales of specialty and all chips, pretzels, and snacks, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                    • 04) Coffee, coffee substitutes, and cocoa
                                                      • Figure 26: Sales of specialty and all coffee, coffee substitutes, and cocoa, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                    • 05) Frozen and refrigerated meat, poultry, and seafood
                                                      • Figure 27: Sales of specialty and all frozen/refrigerated meat, poultry, and seafood, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                    • 06) Bread and baked goods
                                                      • Figure 28: Sales of specialty and all bread and baked goods, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                    • 7) Energy bars and gels
                                                        • Figure 29: Sales of specialty and all energy bars and gels, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                      • 08) Frozen lunch and dinner entrées
                                                          • Figure 30: Sales of specialty and all frozen lunch and dinner entrées, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                        • 09) Condiments, dressings, and marinades
                                                          • Figure 31: Sales of specialty and all condiments, dressings, and marinades, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                        • 10) Frozen desserts
                                                          • Figure 32: Sales of specialty and all frozen desserts, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                        • 11) Candy and individual snacks
                                                          • Figure 33: Sales of specialty and all candy and individual snacks, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                        • 12) Milk
                                                          • Figure 34: Sales of specialty and all milk, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                        • 13) Cookies and snack bars
                                                          • Figure 35: Sales of specialty and all cookies and snack bars, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                        • 14) Nuts, seeds, dried fruit, and trail mixes
                                                          • Figure 36: Sales of specialty and all nuts, seeds, dried fruit, and trail mixes, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                        • 15) Refrigerated salsas and dips
                                                          • Figure 37: Sales of specialty and all refrigerated salsas and dips, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                        • 16) Teas
                                                          • Figure 38: Sales of specialty and all teas, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                        • 17) Pickles, peppers, olives, and other vegetables
                                                          • Figure 39: Sales of specialty and all pickles, peppers, olives, and other vegetables, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                        • 18) Baking mixes, supplies, and flours
                                                            • Figure 40: Sales of specialty and all baking mixes, supplies and flours, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 19) Cold cereal
                                                            • Figure 41: Sales of specialty and all cold cereal, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 20) Shelf-stable fruits and vegetables
                                                            • Figure 42: Sales of specialty and all shelf-stable fruits and vegetables, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 21) Oils and vinegars
                                                            • Figure 43: Sales of specialty and all oils and vinegars, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 22) Refrigerated juices and functional beverages
                                                            • Figure 44: Sales of specialty and all refrigerated juices and functional beverages, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 23) Crackers and crispbreads
                                                            • Figure 45: Sales of specialty and all crackers and crispbreads, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 24) Shelf-stablejJuices
                                                            • Figure 46: Sales of specialty and all shelf-stable juices, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 25) Water
                                                            • Figure 47: Sales of specialty and all water, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 26) Seasonings
                                                            • Figure 48: Sales of specialty and all seasonings, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 27) Soup
                                                            • Figure 49: Sales of specialty and all soup, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 28) Frozen fruits and vegetables
                                                            • Figure 50: Sales of specialty and all frozen fruits and vegetables, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 29) Shelf-stable pasta and pizza sauces
                                                            • Figure 51: Sales of specialty and all shelf-stable pasta and pizza sauces, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 30) Ready-to-drink tea and coffee
                                                            • Figure 52: Sales of specialty and all ready-to-drink tea and coffee, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 31) Carbonated beverages
                                                            • Figure 53: Sales of specialty and all carbonated beverages, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 32) Shelf-stable pasta
                                                            • Figure 54: Sales of specialty and all shelf-stable pasta, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 33) Beans, grains, and rice
                                                            • Figure 55: Sales of specialty and all beans, grains and rice, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 34) Entrées and mixes
                                                            • Figure 56: Sales of specialty and all entrées and mixes, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 35) Sweeteners
                                                            • Figure 57: Sales of specialty and all sweeteners, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 36) Shelf-stable meat, poultry, and seafood
                                                            • Figure 58: Sales of specialty and all meat, poultry and seafood, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 37) Refrigerated condiments
                                                            • Figure 59: Sales of specialty and all refrigerated condiments, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 38) Shelf-stable functional beverages
                                                            • Figure 60: Sales of specialty and all shelf-stable functional beverages, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 39) Other dairy and alternatives
                                                            • Figure 61: Sales of specialty and all other dairy and alternatives, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 40) Eggs
                                                            • Figure 62: Sales of specialty and all eggs, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • 41) Frozen appetizers and snacks
                                                              • Figure 63: Sales of specialty and all frozen appetizers and snacks, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                            • 42) Shelf-stable salsas and dips
                                                              • Figure 64: Sales of specialty and all shelf-stable salsas and dips, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                            • 43) Nut and seed butters
                                                              • Figure 65: Sales of specialty and all nut and seed butters, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                            • 44) Conserves, jams, and spreads
                                                              • Figure 66: Sales of specialty and all conserves, jams, and spreads, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                            • 45) Pudding and shelf-stable desserts
                                                              • Figure 67: Sales of specialty and all pudding and shelf-stable desserts, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                            • 46) Frozen breakfast foods
                                                              • Figure 68: Sales of specialty and all frozen breakfast foods, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                            • 47) Hot cereals
                                                              • Figure 69: Sales of specialty and all hot cereals, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                            • 48) Refrigerated pasta
                                                              • Figure 70: Sales of specialty and all refrigerated pasta, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                            • 49) Rice cakes
                                                              • Figure 71: Sales of specialty and all rice cakes, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                            • 50) Refrigerated pasta and pizza sauces
                                                              • Figure 72: Sales of specialty and all refrigerated pasta and pizza sauces, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                            • 51) Frozen juices and beverages
                                                              • Figure 73: Sales of specialty and all frozen juices and beverages, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                          • State of the Industry: Supply Chain

                                                              • Introduction
                                                                  • Figure 74: Number of SKUs manufactured/carried, by supply chain sectors, 2007-12
                                                                  • Figure 75: Average annual sales, by supply chain sectors, 2010-12
                                                                • Manufacturers
                                                                  • Figure 76: Number of SKUs produced per specialty food manufacturers, 2010-12
                                                                  • Figure 77: Average annual specialty food sales by specialty food manufacturers, 2010-12
                                                                  • Figure 78: Full- and part-time staff employed by specialty food manufacturers, 2010-12
                                                                  • Figure 79: Breakdown of manufacturer expenses, by type, 2008-12
                                                                  • Figure 80: Share of specialty food manufacturer annual sales, by channel, 2010-12
                                                                  • Figure 81: Manufacturers that own a manufacturing facility, 2010-12
                                                                  • Figure 82: Manufacturers that co-pack for other manufacturers/retailers, 2010-12
                                                                  • Figure 83: Sales change in the past year, by specialty food manufacturers, 2010-12
                                                                  • Figure 84: Channel sales growth for specialty food manufacturers, 2012
                                                                  • Figure 85: Specialty food innovation plans for 2013, January 2013
                                                                  • Figure 86: Natural/ethical sourcing for products, by specialty food manufacturers, 2010-12
                                                                  • Figure 87: Natural/ethical claims that are of the most interest/will grow most, by specialty food manufacturers, 2012
                                                                • The voice of the manufacturer
                                                                  • Importers
                                                                    • Figure 88: Number of SKUs carried, by specialty food importers, 2010-12
                                                                    • Figure 89: Average annual specialty foods sales by specialty food importers, 2010-12
                                                                    • Figure 90: Sales change in the past year, 2010-12
                                                                    • Figure 91: Channel sales growth of specialty food importers, 2012
                                                                    • Figure 92: Share of specialty food importer annual sales by channel, 2010-12
                                                                    • Figure 93: Percentage of specific types of products imported, by specialty food importers, 2010-12
                                                                    • Figure 94: Natural/ethical claims that are of the most interest/will grow most, by specialty food importers, 2012
                                                                    • Figure 95: Cuisine/food types/countries of origin that importers think will emerge in 2013, by specialty food importers, 2012
                                                                  • The voice of the importer
                                                                    • Distributors
                                                                      • Figure 96: Number of SKUs carried per specialty food distributor, 2010-12
                                                                      • Figure 97: Average annual specialty foods sales by specialty food distributors, 2010-12
                                                                      • Figure 98: Sales change in the past year, 2011 and 2012
                                                                      • Figure 99: Channel sales growth, specialty food distributors, 2012
                                                                      • Figure 100: Number of stores serviced by distributors, 2010-12
                                                                      • Figure 101: Share of sales by channel, 2010-12
                                                                      • Figure 102: Natural/ethical claims that are of the most interest/will grow most, by specialty food distributors, 2012
                                                                    • The voice of the distributor
                                                                      • Brokers
                                                                        • Figure 103: Number of SKUs represented per specialty food broker, 2010-12
                                                                        • Figure 104: Average annual specialty food sales by specialty food brokers, 2010-12
                                                                        • Figure 105: Sales change in the past year, 2011 and 2012
                                                                        • Figure 106: Channels serviced and fastest-growth channel, 2012
                                                                        • Figure 107: Natural/ethical claims that are of the most interest/will grow most, by specialty food brokers, 2012
                                                                      • The voice of the broker
                                                                      • Retail Distribution

                                                                          • Retail channel sales of specialty foods
                                                                            • Figure 108: U.S. retail sales of specialty foods, by channel, 2010-12
                                                                          • Mainstream channels (supermarkets, drug stores, mass merchandisers)
                                                                            • Figure 109: Mainstream outlet sales of specialty foods, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                                          • Specialty food stores
                                                                            • Figure 110: Specialty food store sales of specialty foods, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                                          • Natural food stores
                                                                            • Figure 111: Natural food store sales of specialty foods, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-12
                                                                        • State of the Industry: Specialty Food Retailers

                                                                            • Operating statistics
                                                                              • Figure 112: Specialty food store operating statistics, 2010-12
                                                                              • Figure 113: Specialty food store operating statistics, 2011-12
                                                                              • Figure 114: Number of SKUs carried by specialty food stores, 2010-12
                                                                            • Relations with suppliers
                                                                              • Figure 115: Average percentage of purchases made through distributors vs. direct purchases, 2008-12
                                                                              • Figure 116: Number of specialty food suppliers utilized, 2011 and 2012
                                                                            • Stores: departments and product mix
                                                                              • Figure 117: Percentage of sales by department, 2010-12
                                                                              • Figure 118: Characteristics of products sold in store(s), 2010-12
                                                                              • Figure 119: Share of natural/ethical product sales, 2010-12
                                                                              • Figure 120: Natural/ethical claims that are of the most interest/will grow most, by specialty food retailers, 2012
                                                                              • Figure 121: Sources for discovering new products, 2010-12
                                                                              • Figure 122: Cuisine/food types/countries of origin that specialty food operators think will emerge in 2013
                                                                            • The impact of the poor economy, rising commodity costs, etc. on specialty food retailers
                                                                              • Figure 123: Sales change in the past year, 2010-12
                                                                            • The voice of the retailer

                                                                            Companies Covered

                                                                            To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                            The NASFT State of the Industry Report – The Market - May 2013

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