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The Rise of the BRICs - March 2013

This report constitutes an overview of tourism in the four emerging BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China. The term ‘BRICs’ was coined in 2001 by Jim O’Neill, who was at the time the chief economist of Goldman Sachs, the investment banking firm. Although the four countries are quite disparate, together they represent a large portion (over 40%) of the world’s population and will account for an increasing share of worldwide output in the future. In 2001, O’Neill predicted that by 2041 (later revised to 2039 and then 2032), the BRICs would overtake the six largest developed economies in terms of gross domestic product (GDP).

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Key findings
        • Abbreviations
        • Data Sources

          • Overview

            • Demographic trends
              • Figure 1: Trend in the population of BRIC countries versus the worldwide total, 1950-2100
            • Economic outlook
              • Figure 2: Overview of the World Economic Outlook projections (% change unless noted otherwise), 2011-14
            • Currency
              • Figure 3: Outlook for BRIC currencies against the US Dollar, 2010-16
            • Inbound tourism arrivals
              • Figure 4: Inbound tourism arrivals to the BRIC countries, 2007-11
            • Incoming arrivals by purpose of visit
              • Figure 5: Incoming arrivals by purpose of visit in the BRIC countries, 2011
            • Brazil
              • Demographic trends
                • Figure 6: Trend in the population in Brazil, by age segment, 2010-50
              • Economic outlook
                • Inbound tourism arrivals
                  • Figure 7: Inbound tourism arrivals to Brazil, by source market, 2007-11
                • Russia
                  • Demographic trends
                    • Figure 8: Trend in the population by age segment in Russia, 2010-50
                  • Economic outlook
                    • Inbound tourism arrivals
                      • Figure 9: Inbound tourism arrivals to Russia, by source market, 2006-10
                    • India
                      • Demographic trends
                        • Figure 10: Trend in the population by age segment in India, 2010-50
                      • Economic outlook
                        • Risk of a widening fiscal deficit
                          • Inbound tourism arrivals
                            • Figure 11: Inbound tourism arrivals to India by source market, 2007-11
                          • China
                            • Demographic trends
                              • Figure 12: Trend in the population by age segment in China, 2010-50
                            • Growth of 7.8% for 2012
                              • Growth rate seen as ‘appropriate’
                                • Tight labour market and rising wages
                                  • Inbound tourism arrivals
                                    • Figure 13: Inbound tourism arrivals to mainland China by source market, 2007-11
                                  • Hong Kong
                                    • Figure 14: Inbound tourism arrivals to Hong Kong by source market, 2007-11
                                  • Macao
                                    • Figure 15: Inbound tourism arrivals to Macao by source market, 2007-11
                                  • Outlook for spending on travel and tourism
                                    • Figure 16: Projected key figures for the travel & tourism sector in the BRIC countries, 2011-22
                                  • Business environment
                                      • Figure 17: Sub-indices and pillars of the WEF’s Travel & Tourism Competiveness Index, 2011
                                    • Competitiveness ranking
                                      • Figure 18: Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index 2011: summary of BRIC countries, 2011
                                      • Figure 19: Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index 2011: detailed summary of BRIC countries, 2011
                                    • Brazil
                                      • Russia
                                        • India
                                          • China
                                          • Brazil

                                            • Economy
                                              • Too dependent on Chinese demand?
                                                • A vast restructuring achieved
                                                  • But major problems remain…
                                                    • Curbing corruption
                                                      • Problem of a low savings rate
                                                        • Lagging growth predicted
                                                          • Industry
                                                            • Programme for accelerated growth
                                                              • Bottlenecks a problem
                                                                • The ‘Brazil cost’
                                                                  • Not a place for shopping
                                                                    • Topshop forced upmarket
                                                                      • Onshore production a solution but critical mass must be reached first
                                                                        • Why are prices so high in Brazil?
                                                                          • Price = quality
                                                                            • Innovation
                                                                              • Shopping tourism
                                                                                • Infrastructure and transport
                                                                                  • Major airport contracts awarded
                                                                                    • Concessions sold at a high price
                                                                                      • IATA notes sky-high charges
                                                                                        • Airports reaching capacity limits
                                                                                          • Demand tripled over the last decade
                                                                                            • Figure 20: Trend in airline passengers in Brazil, 2008-16
                                                                                          • Future privatisations
                                                                                            • Funds used for regional airports
                                                                                              • Airline market shares
                                                                                                • Figure 21: Airline market shares in Brazil, 2010-11
                                                                                              • High-speed rail line to get back on track
                                                                                                • Brazil’s first
                                                                                                  • Accommodation
                                                                                                    • Figure 22: Trend in hotel capacity in Brazil, 2005-15
                                                                                                  • More hotel capacity needed
                                                                                                    • Competition with residential projects
                                                                                                      • Still the potential is there…
                                                                                                        • A fragmented market
                                                                                                          • Figure 23: Hotel chain market share, by number of hotels, 2009-10*
                                                                                                        • Accor grows through acquisition
                                                                                                          • Case studies
                                                                                                            • Fortaleza
                                                                                                              • Handicraft tradition
                                                                                                                • Protected heritage sites
                                                                                                                  • Rio de Janeiro
                                                                                                                    • Beaches a central attraction
                                                                                                                      • Architectural diversity
                                                                                                                        • Taming the favelas
                                                                                                                          • Pacification of BrazilDawn
                                                                                                                            • Origins of the Complexo do Alemão
                                                                                                                              • Almost a decade to quash the violence
                                                                                                                                • Entrepreneurial initiatives
                                                                                                                                  • The Teleférico links the favela to the city
                                                                                                                                    • Caixa supporting entrepreneurship
                                                                                                                                      • NGO involvement
                                                                                                                                        • Corporates getting involved too…
                                                                                                                                          • Modifying hiring procedures to suit the community
                                                                                                                                            • Natura partners with AfroReggae
                                                                                                                                              • Utilities getting involved too…
                                                                                                                                                • CLD Info
                                                                                                                                                  • Plantador Fiel
                                                                                                                                                    • A necessary upgrade to Rio’s image
                                                                                                                                                      • Favela tours
                                                                                                                                                        • Something not to miss…?
                                                                                                                                                          • Locals trained as tour guides
                                                                                                                                                            • The first tours date from two decades ago
                                                                                                                                                              • Salvador
                                                                                                                                                                • Extensive beaches
                                                                                                                                                                  • A variety of accommodation
                                                                                                                                                                    • Santa Catarina State
                                                                                                                                                                      • Tourism important
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 24: Tourist arrivals in Santa Catarina in the first quarter of 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Domestic arrivals breakdown
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 25: Domestic tourism arrivals in Santa Catarina by source market for the year ended June 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                      • International arrivals
                                                                                                                                                                        • Travel motivation
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 26: Tourist arrivals in Santa Catarina by travel motivation for the year ended June 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                        • Visitor receipts
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 27: Tourist receipts in Santa Catarina in the first quarter of 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Lodging used by tourists
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 28: Type of tourist accommodation used in Santa Catarina for the year ended June 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                        • São Paulo
                                                                                                                                                                          • Anhembi Parque
                                                                                                                                                                            • Accommodation
                                                                                                                                                                            • Russia

                                                                                                                                                                              • Economy
                                                                                                                                                                                • Russia enters the WTO
                                                                                                                                                                                  • A delayed phase-in of tariff reductions
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Is the state ready to accept deregulation?
                                                                                                                                                                                      • EU accuses Russia of not playing by the rules
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Industry
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Manufacturing ignored
                                                                                                                                                                                            • 2009 recession spurred a rethink
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Manufacturing sectors with potential
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Innovation
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Skolkovo, Moscow’s Silicon Valley
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Infrastructure and transport
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Air-transport network
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 29: Trend in Russian air passengers, 2008-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Budget airlines
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Established Russian airlines may launch LCCs
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • airBaltic the leading LCC operating into Russia
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 30: LCCs operating to Russia ranked by capacity (seats), 22 October 2012 to 28 October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Air Arabia stepping up presence in Russian market
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Accommodation
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 31: Trend in the number of transient accommodation establishments* in Russia, 2005-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Case studies
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Golden Ring of historic towns
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Ivanovo
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Kostroma
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Pereslavl-Zalessky
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Rostov Veliky
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Sergiev Posad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Suzdal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Vladimir
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Yaroslavl
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Kaliningrad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Special economic zone spurs development
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Chosen as a host city for the football 2018 World Cup
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Hopes for expanded tourism
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Seeing the sites
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • The Curonian Spit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Transport links
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Airlines, destinations and traffic trends
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 32: Airlines & destinations at Khrabrovo Airport, 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Passenger movements at Khrabrovo Airport, 2002-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Rail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Kaliningrad’s 72-hour express visas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Moscow
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Still essentially a business-traveller destination
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Gaining share countrywide
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Half of foreign arrivals not tourists
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • What bothers tourists in Moscow
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Moscow wants to double inbound tourism
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Lack of affordable accommodation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Almost 100,000 additional rooms by 2025
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Sochi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Putin’s showcase
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Financing from the state and from oligarchs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Project details
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • 98 events including ‘slopestyle’
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Safety a priority
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Security much in evidence already
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Measures to assure adequate snow
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Hotel prices capped for Olympics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • St Petersburg
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Hermitage a labyrinth of cultural artefacts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Konstantinovsky Palace
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • 72-hour visas to stimulate tourism
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Vladivostok
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Four legalised gambling locations in Russia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Asian gambling tourism
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Broader impact of gaming development
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • A window on Asia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • India

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Economy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Further reform needed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Impediments to entrepreneurship
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Urbanisation to spur growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Persistent socio-economic inequality
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Industry
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Foreign retailers struggle to enter market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Regulatory red tape and poor infrastructure impede progress
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Recent policy reforms
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Diesel fuel price raised
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Educational deficiencies
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Underqualified graduates
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Firms obliged to increase training
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • A boost from tablet computers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Innovation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • India as the ‘Land of Pi’
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Puducherry and Munnar targeted
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Visa curbs with Pakistan eased
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Visitor visas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Business visas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Group tourist visa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Entry and exit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Trade normalisation with Pakistan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Targeting the Indian diaspora
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 34: Indian diaspora by country & category, May 2102
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Pravasi Bharatiya Divas celebrates overseas Indians
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Focus on the six Cs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Infrastructure to support tourism lacking
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • ‘Air Kerala’ link with Gulf?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Medical tourism a growing niche for India
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • CAGR of 30% projected
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Centres of medical tourism
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • India’s competitive edge
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Infrastructure and transport
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Air-transport network
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 35: Passenger airlines in India – company market share by passenger volume, 2010-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Kingfisher collapses
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Finished for good?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • United Spirits’ stake could provide funds
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Airport development
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Surge in airport retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • 50% of airport profits
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Accommodation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Case studies
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Bangalore
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Australian firm selected to develop international convention centre
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Whitefield & Electronics City
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • International Technology Park Bangalore
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Whitefield & Electronics City comparison
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Goa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Tourism the main industry
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 36: Tourist arrivals in Goa, 2000-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Beaches are the big draw
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Incoming source markets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 37: Foreign tourist arrivals to Goa by nationality, 2010-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Russian tourists not entirely welcome
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Russian-speaking colonies
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Charter-flight arrivals
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 38: Arrivals to Goa by charter flight, 2000/01-2012/13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Cruise-ship arrivals
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 39: Cruise-ship arrivals in Goa in season, 2000/01-2011/12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Accommodation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Total number of hotels & guesthouses with rooms/bed capacity, as of 30/09/2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Hotel capacity upgraded
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 41: Hotels & guesthouses with rooms /bed capacity by rating, as of 30/04/2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Hotel performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Need for additional airport capacity to assure future growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Gurgaon
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • An outsourcing and offshoring hub
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • A centre of real-estate development and shopping malls
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • A burgeoning hotel market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Hyderabad
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • HITEC City
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Transport
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Making a play for MICE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Rajiv Gandhi International Airport
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Mumbai
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Hotel demand shifting north
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Supply growth has slowed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Bandra Kurla Complex
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Andheri
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Cruise terminals
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Attractions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • China

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Economy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Considering relaxation of one-child policy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • 400 million births prevented
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Foreign exchange regulation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • China to internationalise Renminbi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Impact of Japan’s monetary policy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Renminbi exchange rate close to equilibrium
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Industry
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Foreign travel agencies restricted
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Online advertising
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Value-added Telecommunications Business License
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • General regulation of travel distribution business
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Value-added telecommunications business and online commerce
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Ctrip.com, China’s market leading OTA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • 50-50 split between hotel and flights
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Hotel relationships
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Air ticketing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Other products and services
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Ctrip membership and social networking
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Competition
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Innovation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 72-hour transit visas for 45 nationalities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 42: The 45 countries benefiting from the 72-hour visa rule, 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Short-stay packages
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Visa exemption in some cases
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: The 18 fully participating countries in the APEC Business Travel Card, 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Visa exemption for visiting Hainan Province
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 44: 26 countries enjoying visa exemptions for visits to Hainan, 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Visa exemption for visiting the Pearl River Delta region
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Chinese brands to the fore?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Adapting to local tastes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Little brand loyalty
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Premium brand for safety and status
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Governmental goals
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Chinese wedded to foreign brands for the moment…
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Shoppers in Hong Kong go for foreign brands
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Government moves to support SMEs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Infrastructure and transport
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Air-transport network
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 45: Trend in Chinese air passengers, 2007-15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Airline market shares
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 46: Airline market shares in China, 2009-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Budget airlines
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Unnecessary airports?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Most Chinese airports are in the red
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Will a slowing economy support more airports?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Beijing’s proposed new airport questioned
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Beijing on the way to be ranked number 1 worldwide
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Ürümqi Airport fastest-growing in China
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Rail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Separate freight and passenger routes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Wenzhou collision has slowed down development
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Need for dedicated high-speed tracks
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • High-speed rail construction as a job creator
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • China beginning to export high-speed rolling stock
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Grand plan to link cities with high-speed rail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Record numbers carried during recent holiday period
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Accommodation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 47: China’s 35 leading hotel markets, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Future supply growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 48: Projected room stock of branded hotels in selected cities by 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Case studies
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Hainan Island
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • An independent province in 1988
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • First masterplan completed in 2002
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Property boom and bust cycle
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Sun and beaches
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Surfing Hainan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Swatch Girls Pro China event
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • A national surfing training base in 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • A breakneck pace of growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 49: Visitor arrivals in Hainan, 1995-2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Domestic arrivals 97% of the total
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 50: Annual growth rate of visitor arrivals in Hainan, 1995-2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 51: Annual growth of visitor expenditure in Hainan, 1995-2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Boao Forum
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • New tourism products
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Cruising
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Yachting too…
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Foreign yachtsmen welcome
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Chinese-backed boat in the Volvo Ocean Race
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Golf
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • MICE and leisure events
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Hainan attracts a broad range of events
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Upmarket Sanya hotels offer full conference facilities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Growing numbers of tour operators and travel agents
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Gambling in Sanya too?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Macao
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Growth slowing down
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Visitation flat in 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Six casino operators
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • A shift from VIPs to mass market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Operators must pay junket operators
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • More accommodation needed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • ‘Premium mass’ gamers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • ‘Fast Action Baccarat’ for the masses
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Shanghai
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Large-scale tourism projects underway
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Disneyland starting to take shape
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Blending culture and tourism
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • China’s second duty-free shopping region
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Attractions a way to retain city’s visitors
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Taiwan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Targeting Chinese gamblers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Gambling has traditionally been illegal, but…
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • 2017 at the earliest…
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Matsu only a 30-minute ferry ride from China
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Potential impact on Macao
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Attracting Chinese customers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Fujian Province, the main target market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Motivation for casino approval
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Competition from other regions also factor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Casinos to drive economic development
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Operators ready to move
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Improved transport links
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Other operators are interested too…
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Asian-based operators in strong position
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Regulatory structure being worked out
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Xi’an
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Terracotta soldiers draw tens of millions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Other attractions too…
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • What Next?

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • India to displace China as global growth engine?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • High savings rate due to lack of social net
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Foxconn the handwriting on the wall?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Real wages up 350% in 11 years
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Accelerating wages good for tourism
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Western companies resist technology transfer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Growth rate forecasts reduced
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • India’s advantage: a younger population
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • English and a recognised legal system
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • A sophisticated corporate sector
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • A growing middle class
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • What will drive BRIC tourism going forward?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Gambling and sporting events
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Golf and skiing

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    The Rise of the BRICs - March 2013

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    US $2,002.85 (Excl.Tax)