2022
9
UK Children’s Social Care Market Report 2022
2022-12-03T03:03:24+00:00
OX1104363
1495
158159
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Report
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“With the number of children in care expected to reach 100,000 by 2025 in England alone, the systemic problems causing this rise need to be tackled otherwise the care burden…

UK Children’s Social Care Market Report 2022

£ 1,495 (Excl.Tax)

Description

The UK Children’s Social Care Market Report examines the current conditions of Children’s social care, the increasing presence of independent providers and the impact of the cost of living crisis on the children’s social care market. This report covers the children’s social care market size, market forecast, market segmentation and trends in the children’s social care market.

 

Current Landscape of the Children’s Social Care Market

Local authorities in England are already under pressure as budget cuts have made managing the increasing number of children in care challenging. With public spending levels expected to remain stagnant over the foreseeable future, the industry will need to source an alternative non-financial solution.

Children’s Social Care Market Size and Industry Statistics

Restrictive budgetary measures announced in November 2022 will result in local authorities further cutting spending on preventative measures. As a result, support for some vulnerable families will decrease, which will only increase financial pressures as the cost of living crisis continues.

  • Children’s social care market size: Total expenditure on children’s social care reached an estimated £14.6 billion in 2021/22.
  • children’s social care market share: CareTech Holdings PLC are a leading provider of private children’s homes, accounting for almost 10% – 205 homes.

Future Children’s Social Care Market Trends

The systemic problems causing the rise in the number of children needing to be looked after or in need of care need to be tackled, otherwise, the care burden will continue to rise. The closure of early intervention support measures has meant that more vulnerable children are reaching ‘crisis’ point.

However, technology could offer a solution to understaffing. Social care workers’ time with children and families could rise to 45% on average if councils invested in digital systems that supported more efficient case recording, limited internal meetings and expanded the use of remote meetings developed through the COVID-19 pandemic.

To discover more about the UK Children’s Social Care Market Report 2022, read our UK Adult Social Care Market Report 2022, or take a look at our Health and Wellbeing Market Research Reports.

 

Quickly Understand

  • The impact of COVID-19 and current economic conditions on the children’s social care market’s provision.
  • The estimated and forecast values of individual segments in the children’s social care market between 2017/18 and 2027/28.
  • The increasing presence of independent providers in the children’s social care market and how the industry has changed as a result of this.
  • Explores the children’s social care market size and children’s social care market share.

 

Covered in this Report

Products: Children’s social care services.

Brands: CareTech Holdings, Outcomes First Group, Nutrius UK Topco Ltd (Polaris) and Compass Community Ltd.

 

Expert Analysis from a Specialist in the B2B Sector

This report, written by Lewis Cone, a leading analyst in the B2B sector, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends in the children’s social care market and add expert context to the numbers.

With the number of children in care expected to reach 100,000 by 2025 in England alone, the systemic problems causing this rise need to be tackled otherwise the care burden for councils, government, and society will just continue to increase. Recommendations laid out in the recent Independent Review and CMA study of the industry have provided some ideas on how the industry could evolve, but it will require a unified approach from providers and commissioners to have a positive impact.”

Lewis Cone - Research Analyst

Lewis Cone
Senior B2B Analyst

 

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • Key issues covered in this Report
    • Covered in this Report
  2. Executive Summary

    • Five-year outlook for children’s social care
      • Figure 1: Five-year outlook for children’s social care, 2022-27
    • The market
    • Stable, consistent growth sees market value reach £14.6 billion in 2021/22
      • Figure 2: UK market for children’s social care, 2017/18-2021/22 (£ million)
    • Special education expenditure rises by highest amount, as government boosts funding
      • Figure 3: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of care, 2017/18 and 2021/22 (share of total spend)
    • Steady growth expected, but real-terms growth will remain insufficient to protect services provision
      • Figure 4: UK market forecast for children’s social care, 2022/23-2027/28 (£ million at 2021/22 prices)
    • Referrals rise to three-year high with assessments remaining below pre-pandemic level
      • Figure 5: Referrals and initial assessments to children’s social care, England, 2017/18-2021/22 (number)
    • Companies and brands
  3. Issues and Insights

    • Independent review and CMA’s study provide guidance towards the industry’s future, but may not solve all problems
    • Retention and recruitment difficulties hampering industry’s response to growing demand
  4. Market Size

    • Stable, consistent growth sees market value reach £14.6 billion in 2021/22
      • Figure 6: UK market for children’s social care, 2017/18-2021/22 (£ million)
    • Regional Analysis
      • Figure 7: Segmentation of UK market for children’s social care, by country, 2017/18-2021/22 (£ million)
      • Figure 8: Number of children looked after, by country, 2017-21 (number of children)
      • Figure 9: Number of children looked after in England, by age and gender, as of 31 March 2017-21 (number of children)
      • Figure 10: Number of children looked after in Scotland, by age and gender, as of 31 July 2017-21 (number of children)
      • Figure 11: Number of children looked after in Wales, by age and gender, as of 31 March 2017-21 (number of children)
  5. Market Segmentation

    • Special education expenditure rises by highest amount, as government boosts funding
      • Figure 12: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of care, 2017/18-2021/22 (£ million)
      • Figure 13: Number of children looked after, at 31 March and 31 July (Scotland), by placement type, UK, 2017-21 (number of children)
    • Children’s homes
      • Figure 14: UK children’s home placements and average annual cost, at 31 March of each year (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and 31 July of each year (Scotland), 2017/18-2021/22 (number of children and £000)
      • Figure 15: Number of children in Children’s Homes in Scotland, 2017/18-2021/22 (number of children)
      • Figure 16: Children’s homes in England, at 31 March 2022, by region (number)
    • Foster care
      • Figure 17: UK foster care placements and average annual cost, at 31 March of each year (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and 31 July of each year (Scotland), 2017/18-2021/22 (number of children and £000)
      • Figure 18: Foster placements in England, at 31 March of each year, by placement type and location, 2018-21 (number of children)
      • Figure 19: UK fostering rates, by age, 2019/20 and 2022/23 (£ per week)
    • Special education
      • Figure 20: UK market for SEN care, 2017/18-2021/22 (£ million)
      • Figure 21: Students with special educational needs, by school type, England, 2017/18-2021/22 (number of children and share of pupils in each school type)
    • Independent vs. public supply
      • Figure 22: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of provider, 2017/18-2021/22 (share of total spend)
      • Figure 23: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by sector and type of provider, 2017/18-2021/22 (£ million)
  6. Market Forecast

    • Five-year outlook for children’s social care
      • Figure 24: Five-year outlook for children’s social care, 2022-27
    • Steady growth expected, but real-terms growth will remain insufficient to protect services provision
      • Figure 25: UK market forecast for children’s social care, 2022/23-2027/28 (£ million at 2021/22 prices)
    • Special education spending expected to record greatest growth to 2027/28
      • Figure 26: UK market forecast of children’s homes, 2017/18-2027/28 (£ million)
      • Figure 27: UK market forecast for foster care, 2017/18-2027/28 (£ million)
      • Figure 28: UK market forecast for ‘other children looked after’, 2017/18-2027/28 (£ million)
      • Figure 29: UK market forecast for special education, 2017/18-2027/28 (£ million)
  7. The Impact of the Economy

    • Recession fears emerge as Q3 growth remains in negative territory
      • Figure 30: Annual GDP growth rate, 2017-22 (%)
    • Bank rate rises for the seventh time in 2022 as inflationary pressures continue
      • Figure 31: Bank rate, 2008-22, by date of adjustment (%)
  8. Market Trends

    • Social care worker number rises to five-year high, but caseloads are becoming more complex
    • Workforce, staff turnover and vacancy rates
    • Caseloads
      • Figure 32: Children’s social care workers in England, 2021 (number of FTE workers and % turnover rate)
    • Referrals rise to three-year high with assessments remaining below pre-pandemic level
      • Figure 33: Referrals and initial assessments to children’s social care, England, 2017/18-2021/22 (number and rate per 10,000 children under 18 years)
      • Figure 34: Primary need at assessment, England, by primary need, 2021/22 (number of assessments and share of total)
      • Figure 35: Referrals to children’s social care, England, by most common source of referral, 2021/22 (number of referrals and share of total)
  9. Market Drivers

    • The number of children living in relative poverty has likely risen due to the cost-of-living crisis
    • Independent review urges ‘whole-system’ industry reset…
    • Publication and recommendations
    • Outcomes
    • Government and industry response
    • Northern Ireland’s Review
    • …whilst the CMA’s own review finds problems with privately run services and excessive fees
  10. Legislation

    • Children Act
    • Children and Families Act
    • Care Standards Act
    • Children’s Homes Regulations
    • Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act
    • The Children and Social Work Act
    • Adoption and Children (Northern Ireland) Act
    • Children (Scotland) Act and Looked After Children (Scotland) Amendment Regulations 2021
    • Social Work Regulations
  11. Industry Structure

    • Industry development
    • Ofsted reports a rise in the number of homes and sets out changes to Inspection Framework
    • Private sector involvement reaches all-time high
      • Figure 36: Proportion of all children’s homes in England run by state or independent organisations, by region, as of 31 August 2021 (share of total homes)
    • Changes in the structure of the industry
      • Figure 37: Analysis of the changes in the structure of ‘other residential care activities’, 2018-22 (number of outlets and businesses)
      • Figure 38: Analysis of the changes in the structure of ‘other social work activities without accommodation n.e.c.’, 2018-22 (number of outlets and businesses)
    • Structure by employment
      • Figure 39: Analysis of the employment structure of ‘other residential care activities’, 2021 and 2022 (number of employees and outlets)
      • Figure 40: Analysis of the employment structure of ‘other social work activities without accommodation n.e.c.’, 2021 and 2022 (number of employees and outlets)
    • Structure by turnover
      • Figure 41: Analysis of the financial structure of ‘other residential care activities’, 2021 and 2022 (£000 and number of businesses)
      • Figure 42: Analysis of the financial structure of ‘other social work activities without accommodation n.e.c.’, 2021 and 2022 (£000 and number of businesses)
  12. Competitive Strategies

    • Alder Hey launches online mental health platform
    • Accomplish Group merges with Key Groups and now operates through three divisions
  13. Company Profiles

    • Acorn Education and Care
    • Recent company activity
    • Financial information
      • Figure 43: Financial analysis of Acorn Care and Education Limited, 2017-21 (£000)
      • Figure 44: Financial analysis of Fostering Solutions, 2017-21 (£000)
    • Aspris Children’s Services (formerly Priory Education and Children’s Services)
    • Recent company activity
    • Financial information
      • Figure 45: Financial analysis of Aspris Children’s Services Limited (formerly Priory Education Services Limited), 2016-20 (£000)
    • Cambian Childcare
    • Recent company activity
    • Financial information
      • Figure 46: Financial analysis of Cambian Childcare Limited, 2017-21* (£000)
    • Foster Care Associates
    • Recent company activity
    • Financial information
      • Figure 47: Financial analysis of Foster Care Associates, 2017-21 (£000)
    • Keys Group
    • Recent company activity
    • Financial information
      • Figure 48: Financial analysis of Keys Group Limited, 2017-21 (£000)
    • The National Autistic Society
    • Recent company activity
    • Financial information
      • Figure 49: Financial analysis of The National Autistic Society, 2017-21 (£000)
    • National Fostering Group
    • Financial information
      • Figure 50: Financial analysis of National Fostering Agency, 2017-21* (£000)
  14. Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

    • Abbreviations
    • B2B Methodology
  15. Appendix – Forecast Methodology

    • Market forecast and prediction intervals
    • Children’s Homes
      • Figure 51: UK market size and forecast for children’s homes, 2017/18-2027/28 (£ million and % change)
    • Foster Care
      • Figure 52: UK market size and forecast for foster care, 2017/18-2027/28 (£ million and % change)
    • Other Children Looked After
      • Figure 53: UK market size and forecast for ‘other children looked after’, 2017/18-2027/28 (£ million and % change)
    • Special Education
      • Figure 54: UK market size and forecast for special education, 2017/18-2027/28 (£ million and % change)
    • Forecast methodology
  16. Further Sources and Contacts

    • Trade associations
    • Association of Directors of Children’s Services Ltd (ADCS)
    • CoramBAAF Adoption and Fostering Academy
    • Nasen
    • Nationwide Association of Fostering Providers (NAFP)
    • National Children’s Bureau (NCB)
    • National Portage Association
    • The Children’s Homes Association (CHA)
    • Trade magazines
    • Care Talk
    • Children & Young People Now
    • Social Work News
    • Trade events
    • ADCS Annual Conference 2023
    • Community Care Live 2023
    • National Children and Adult Services Conference 2023

About the report

This market report provides in-depth analysis and insight supported by a range of data. At the same time, introductory and top-level content is provided to give you an overview of the issues covered.

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