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UK Retail Briefing - April 2017

An Analyst comment on Food retailing and the recent trading updates by the grocery multiples and what it means for the sector.

This month's UKRB includes:

  • Spending on electricals by main product categories, 2016
  • Main electricals sub sectors, growth 2012-16
  • Major electricals sector, quarterly performance, 2014-16
  • Leading retailers share of online spending on electrical goods, 2016
  • Impact of Black Friday and where next for the sector

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Table of contents

  1. Analyst Comment

    • Food retailers – time to take stock
      • Latest figures
        • Figure 1: Leading food retailers: Latest sales performance, 2016-17
      • Co-op staging a strong recovery
        • Tesco recovery no flash in the pan
          • Morrisons recovery also looks soundly based
            • Sainsbury’s lagging behind
              • Asda neglecting the basics
                • Where next?
                  • Innovations
                  • Retail Sales

                    • Key points
                      • Retail sales
                        • Figure 2: Retail sales trends, 2016/17
                        • Figure 3: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, Jan 2015-Mar 2017
                      • John Lewis
                        • Inflation and wages
                          • Figure 4: Real wages growth: Wages growth vs inflation, 2012-17
                        • Rising inflation
                          • Figure 5: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2016-17
                        • Looking forward
                        • Sector Focus – Electricals retailing

                            • Spending data- recovery in 2016
                                • Figure 6: Spending on electricals by main product categories, 2016
                                • Figure 7: Main electricals sub-sectors, growth 2012-2016 and 2015-2016
                                • Figure 8: Major electricals sector, quarterly performance, 2014-2016
                              • Black Friday
                                • Figure 9: Final quarter spending on electricals as proportion of full year: deviation from the average, 2009-2016
                              • Retail sales
                                • Figure 10: Electricals retailers year on year growth, 2015-17
                              • Online
                                • Figure 11: Leading online retailers estimated shares of online spending on electrical goods, 2016
                              • Inflation
                                • Figure 12: Annual % change in the price of electricals goods categories, Mar 2016- Mar 2017
                              • Where next?
                              • Headlines for the Month

                                • Grocers
                                  • Clothing and footwear retailers
                                    • Department stores
                                      • DIY retailing
                                        • Book retailing
                                          • Economy
                                          • News Analysis – Food and Drink

                                            • Convenience stores
                                              • UK: Booker sales hit by new Tobacco legislation
                                                • UK: Budgens operator falls into administration
                                                  • Grocers
                                                    • UK: Booths to enter joint venture in Malaysia
                                                      • UK: Brait abandons plans to list on the London Stock Exchange
                                                        • UK: Morrisons
                                                          • …outshines the ‘big four’, industry figures suggest
                                                            • …achieves first comparable sales and profit growth since 2012
                                                              • …launches in-store Indian takeaway concept
                                                                • UK: Nisa Q4 sales increase 2.2%
                                                                  • UK: Sainsbury's
                                                                    • …and Argos combined like-for-like sales rise 0.3%
                                                                      • …launches weather-activated digital campaign
                                                                        • …set to axe Phone Shops
                                                                          • …teams up with Graduate Fashion Week on high-end range
                                                                            • UK: Tesco
                                                                              • …agrees to pay £129m fine
                                                                                • …CEO reiterates commitment to Booker deal
                                                                                  • …faces pressure to close stores amid Booker takeover
                                                                                    • …to restructure international executive team
                                                                                      • UK: The Co-op reports "exceptional" yearly results
                                                                                        • UK: Waitrose to host supper club in new store
                                                                                        • News Analysis - Non-food

                                                                                          • Clothing and footwear retailing
                                                                                            • UK: Ann Summers turnover declines 3%
                                                                                              • UK: Blue Inc
                                                                                                • …CVA labelled a 'stay of execution'
                                                                                                  • …files for a CVA
                                                                                                    • UK: Brantano falls into administration
                                                                                                      • UK: Burberry licenses beauty business to Coty
                                                                                                        • UK: Canada Goose set to open first UK store
                                                                                                          • UK: Edinburgh Woollen Mill
                                                                                                            • …likely to buy Jaeger
                                                                                                              • …to roll out department store concept
                                                                                                                • UK: French Connection revenues fall 6.7%
                                                                                                                  • UK: Gap launches new concept store in Bluewater
                                                                                                                    • UK: H&M
                                                                                                                      • …sales up 7% in Q1
                                                                                                                        • …to open largest UK store
                                                                                                                          • UK: Hugo Boss acts to stabilise declining sales
                                                                                                                            • UK: Jaeger likely to fall into administration
                                                                                                                              • UK: Jones Bootmaker
                                                                                                                                • …heading for administration
                                                                                                                                  • …sold to private equity firm Endless
                                                                                                                                    • UK: Lavitta closes all stores after a year in operation
                                                                                                                                      • UK: Matalan launches in Eastern Europe
                                                                                                                                        • UK: Moss Bros
                                                                                                                                          • …revenue rises 5.7%
                                                                                                                                            • …targets young men with prom campaign
                                                                                                                                              • UK: Mothercare delivers solid quarterly performance
                                                                                                                                                • UK: Next sales level for the year
                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Primark owner seeks new chairman
                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Shoe Zone eyes Brantano takeover
                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Ted Baker
                                                                                                                                                        • …launches interactive window campaign
                                                                                                                                                          • …sales rise 16.4%
                                                                                                                                                            • UK: The White Company expands US presence
                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Topshop managing director heads to The White Company
                                                                                                                                                                • Multi-sector retailing
                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: 99p Stores falls into administration
                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: The Original Factory Shop CEO steps down
                                                                                                                                                                      • Department stores
                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Debenhams adds Preen to the Designers at Debenhams collection
                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: House of Fraser unveils new vision
                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: John Lewis
                                                                                                                                                                              • …CEO Paula Nickolds warns of further job cuts
                                                                                                                                                                                • …full-year sales rise 3.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                  • …invests in Edinburgh store
                                                                                                                                                                                    • …launches own denim lifestyle brand
                                                                                                                                                                                      • DIY retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Bunnings plans online launch
                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Kingfisher like-for-likes rise 2.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: ManoMano gains a foothold in the UK DIY market
                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Topps Tiles like-for-like sale decrease 1.9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Furniture retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: DFS half-year revenue boosted by new stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: ScS posts rise in sales and profits
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Sharps
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • …launches shopping centre presence in Intu malls
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Sharps
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • …put up for sale
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: The Range reveals plans for new headquarters
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Home Shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: AO revenues up 17% but profits fall to zero
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Asos revenues rise 37%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Farfetch launches Middle-Eastern designer collections
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: HelloFresh now available at Sainsbury’s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Net-a-Porter develops personal services for top customers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Ocado retail sales rise 13.1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Health & beauty retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Feelunique acquires The Beautyist
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Lush ‘reviews options’ for growth outside the UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Book and stationery retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Card Factory revenue up 4.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Clintons unveils new fascia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Foyles sales rise 2.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Rebranded Staples stores to lease space in larger shops
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Sports and leisure goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Reebok launches first knitted footwear range
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Music and game retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Game revenues fall in a challenging market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Luxury goods retailers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Hermés reports strong sales and profit growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Luxury marketplace for modest fashion launches
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Matches Fashion revenues jump 61%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Jewellers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Signet Jewellers reports challenging fourth quarter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Pet retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Pets at Home introduces 'peternity' leave for staff
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Shopping locations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Intu acquires shopping centre in Madrid
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: London's New West End to host 'smart street'
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Oaktree to sell three UK shopping centres
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: White Rose shopping centre reveals major extension plans
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Economy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Food prices rise sharply in March
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Parliamentary inquiry launched to investigate business rates
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Retail footfall down 1% in February
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Retail sales rise 4.7% in February
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Springboard forecasts 5.4% Easter footfall boost
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Visa reports slowing consumer spending

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • 99p Stores Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Aldi Stores Ltd (UK & Ireland)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Ann Summers Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Arcadia Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Argos
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • ASOS (UK retail sales)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • B&Q (UK & Ireland)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Booker Cash & Carry Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Booker food retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Brantano (Group)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Budgens Stores Ltd - retail sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Burberry Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Burton
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Clintons Cards (AG Retail Cards Ltd)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Coty Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Dairy Farm Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • E Moss Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • EH Booth & Co Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Ernest Jones Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Financial Times Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • French Connection (Retail)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Game Digital plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Gap Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • H Samuel Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • H&M Hennes & Mauritz
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • HelloFresh UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • House of Fraser Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Hugo Boss
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Iceland Foods Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Jaeger Company's Shops Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • John Lewis Plc (department store)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Jones Bootmaker
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Kingfisher Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Land Securities Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Lush Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Matalan Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Moss Bros Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Mothercare Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • New Look (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Nisa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Oaktree Capital Management Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Ocado Group plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Pavers Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Pets at Home Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Poundland Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Premier
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Primark Stores Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Reebok International Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Sainsbury's Local
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Schwarz Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Screwfix UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • ScS Upholstery Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Sharps
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Shoe Zone Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Signet Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Staples Disposables Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Ted Baker
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Tesco (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The Edinburgh Woollen Mill Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The Range
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The White Company Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Topps Tiles
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • W&G Foyle Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Wm Morrison Supermarkets

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            UK Retail Briefing - April 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            US $395.21 (Excl.Tax)