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UK Retail Briefing - August 2014

Each month Mintel’s UK Retail Briefing concentrates on a particular sector or market. This month’s provides analysis of the food retail sector.

This sector focus looks at:

  • An analysis of the latest UK retail sales trends
  • Growth of the food retail sector tracked against inflation
  • Recent performance of the major grocery multiples
  • Looking ahead to performance of the food sector and the outlook for Christmas 2014
  • The latest monthly UK retail news and commentary.

We also include an Analyst's Comment looking at the recent developments at Tesco.

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Table of contents

  1. Analyst Comment

      • Why – Problems at Tesco
        • Why – Changes in the sector
          • Where next?
            • Can it be done?
            • Retail Sales – Background and Outlook

              • Key points
                • Retail sales trends
                  • Figure 1: Retail sales trends, 2013-14
                • BRC data for July
                  • Figure 2: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, 2013-14
                • John Lewis
                  • Figure 3: John Lewis: Year-on-year growth, 2013-14
                • Inflation and wages
                  • Figure 4: The income squeeze: Wages growth vs inflation, 2009-14
                • Inflation
                  • Figure 5: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2013-14
                • Looking forward
                • Sector Focus – Food Retailing

                    • Executive summary
                      • Inflation declines reflect price competition
                        • Figure 6: Consumer prices: Annual % change in food, beverages and tobacco, June 2013-June 2014
                        • Figure 7: Shop-prices: Annual % change in food, June 2013-July 2014
                      • Food retailers’ sales
                        • Figure 8: Retail sales: Annual % change in value sales, July 2013-June 2014
                      • Looking ahead
                        • Major grocers’ recent results
                            • Figure 9: Major grocers’ year-on-year sales growth, 2014
                        • Headlines for the Month

                          • Grocers
                            • Clothing
                              • Multi-sector retailing
                                • Department stores
                                  • DIY
                                    • Electrical retailing
                                      • Home shopping
                                      • News Analysis – Food and Drink

                                        • Co-ops
                                          • Co-op
                                            • …announces governance reform proposals
                                              • …sells its farms
                                                • …sells its pharmacy chain
                                                  • …to open pop-up kiosks
                                                    • …trials tablet trolleys
                                                      • Convenience stores
                                                        • Booker to open new Family Shopper stores
                                                          • McColl’s
                                                            • …launches loyalty scheme
                                                              • …sales grow 3.6%
                                                                • Grocers
                                                                  • Aldi
                                                                    • …launches first smartphone
                                                                      • …founder Karl Albrecht dies aged 94
                                                                        • …to launch equestrian clothing
                                                                          • Lidl to offer premium French wine selection
                                                                            • Morrisons
                                                                              • …partners with Quidco
                                                                                • …Q1 like-for-likes
                                                                                  • …sells Kiddicare to Endless
                                                                                    • Ocado to open new warehouse
                                                                                      • Sainsbury's
                                                                                        • …now sole owner of Anobii
                                                                                          • …names first two Netto sites
                                                                                            • …to close non-food website
                                                                                              • …to power store on food waste
                                                                                                • Tesco
                                                                                                  • …hire Marks & Spencer finance head
                                                                                                    • …Phillip Clarke to stand down
                                                                                                      • …to build 4,000 homes
                                                                                                        • Off-licences
                                                                                                          • Conviviality full-year pre-tax profits up
                                                                                                            • Market share UK
                                                                                                              • Tesco and Morrisons sales down 3.8%
                                                                                                              • News Analysis – Non-food

                                                                                                                • Clothing retailing
                                                                                                                  • Bonmarché like-for-like sales up
                                                                                                                    • Boux Avenue to open first airport store
                                                                                                                      • Champion to return to the UK
                                                                                                                        • East sales dip 2%
                                                                                                                          • Internacionale brand name for sale
                                                                                                                            • La Senza
                                                                                                                              • …administrator closes six outlets
                                                                                                                                • …more store closures
                                                                                                                                  • Matalan to launch Oxford Street Flagship
                                                                                                                                    • Next sales grow 10.7% in first half
                                                                                                                                      • Oliver Bonas launches click-and-collect
                                                                                                                                        • Pepe Jeans considers sale
                                                                                                                                          • Primark sales soar 22% in Q3
                                                                                                                                            • Select buys 18 Internaçionale stores
                                                                                                                                              • SuperGroup sales grow 19.6%
                                                                                                                                                • White Stuff sales jump 16.2%
                                                                                                                                                  • Footwear retailing
                                                                                                                                                    • Office considering £300 million stock market flotation
                                                                                                                                                      • Luxury retailers
                                                                                                                                                        • Jimmy Choo opens doors of virtual showroom
                                                                                                                                                          • Multi-sector retailing
                                                                                                                                                            • Argos
                                                                                                                                                              • …expands use of augmented reality in catalogues
                                                                                                                                                                • …to cut or freeze 10,000 prices
                                                                                                                                                                  • B&M sales grow 31.9% in Q1
                                                                                                                                                                    • Hema to launch UK website in September
                                                                                                                                                                      • Marks & Spencer recruit Tesco internet chief
                                                                                                                                                                        • Poundstretcher cuts prices across the board
                                                                                                                                                                          • Department stores
                                                                                                                                                                            • Debenhams poaches Mothercare Chief Financial Officer
                                                                                                                                                                              • Fortnum & Mason standalone airport store
                                                                                                                                                                                • Harrods to redevelop menswear department
                                                                                                                                                                                  • John Lewis
                                                                                                                                                                                    • …to launch ‘Tea on The Green’ in Glasgow city centre
                                                                                                                                                                                      • …partnership sales rises 6.3% in first half
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Selfridges
                                                                                                                                                                                          • …launches Cartier online
                                                                                                                                                                                            • …opens Christmas shop
                                                                                                                                                                                              • DIY retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Homebase attracts takeover bids
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Home Retail Group considering selling Homebase
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Kingfisher like-for-like sales fall 1.8% in Q2
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Travis Perkins sales rise 11.5% in first half
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Electrical retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Comet administrators facing probe
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Dixons Carphone
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • … announce shareholders support for merger
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • …opens first store
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Music and video goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • HMV like-for-like sales grow 9.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Carpet retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Carpetright sales grow 5.2% in Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Floors-2-Go collapses into administration again
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Homewares retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Cath Kidston attracts Chinese investor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Home shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Amazon
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …launches two-day European delivery
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …launches wearable technology store
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Ao.com like-for-like sales jump 30% in Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • eBay
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • …partners with Sotheby’s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • …The British Fashion Council to launch eBay shop
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Findel sales down
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • N Brown
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …hires CIO
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …Simply Be announces Kelly Brook collection
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Net-a-Porter Chief Executive steps down
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Health and beauty retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Walgreens expected to take full control of Alliance Boots
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Book and stationery retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Smiggle to double UK store portfolio
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Sports and leisure goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Alan Fort to take control of American Golf on an interim basis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Sports Direct
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • …profits grow 19.8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • …to open stores in Australasia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Garden centres
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • The Garden Centre Group to return to Wyevale
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Opticians
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Lenstore posts record billing in May
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Miscellaneous specialist retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Brighthouse revenue grows by 12.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Card Factory sales rise 8.9% in first half of the year
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Halfords sales accelerate 7.9% in Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Kiddicare stores to close
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Mothercare
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • …appoints new chief executive
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • …Destination Maternity withdraws bid
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Pets at Home sales jump 10.4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Fragrance Shop sales jump 11.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Thorntons' sales grow 0.6% Q4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Miscellaneous
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Royal Mail expands its click & collect service
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Economy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Retail sales growth lowest in three years
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Retail sales rise 4.2% in June
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Shop prices fall in July
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Tesco and Morrisons sales down 3.8%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Alchemy Partners
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Aldi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Amazon.co.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Amazon.com Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • AO World Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Argos
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Associated British Foods Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • B&M Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • B&Q (UK & Ireland)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Bargain Booze Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Bonmarché
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Booker Cash & Carry Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Boots UK health & beauty retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Boux Avenue
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Brico Depôt (France)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • British Retail Consortium
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Carpetright Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Castorama (Russia)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Cath Kidston Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Champion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Comet Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Debenhams UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Dixons Retail Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • East Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Express Gifts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Findel plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Floors 2 go
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Fortnum & Mason Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Grand Vision Groupe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Hackett Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Halfords Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • HarperCollins Publishers Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Harvey Nichols UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Hema
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • HMV Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Home Retail Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Homebase Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • J. Choo Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • JJB Sports Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • John Lewis Partnership
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • JP Morgan Fleming
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Kantar Media
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Kiddicare
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Kingfisher Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • La Senza Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Limited Brands Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Marks & Spencer (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Matalan Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • McColl's (convenience stores)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • McColl's Retail Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Morgan Stanley
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Mothercare Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Mr. Bricolage Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • N Brown Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Net-A-Porter Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Netto Foodstores Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Next Directory
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Next Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Ocado
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Office for National Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Office Holdings Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Office of Fair Trading
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Pets at Home Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Post Office Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Poundstretcher Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • PricewaterhouseCoopers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Primark Stores Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Primark/Penneys
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Princes Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Quidco
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Schwarz Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Screwfix UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Select (Retail) Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Selfridges Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Shop Direct Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Sports Direct Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • SuperGroup Plc (Retail)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Carphone Warehouse Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Fragrance Shop
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Jessops Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Kenco Coffee Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Penguin Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Range
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Thomas Cook Group PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Toolstation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Travis Perkins PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Unilever Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Victoria's Secret
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Vision Express (UK) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Vue
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Walgreen Co
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Wellcome Trust
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • West Coast Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • WH Smith PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • White Stuff Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Wickes Building Supplies Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Wm Morrison Supermarkets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Wyevale Garden Centres

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      UK Retail Briefing - August 2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      £295.00 (Excl.Tax)