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UK Retail Briefing - December 2014

Each month Mintel’s UK Retail Briefing concentrates on a particular sector or market. This month’s focus is on the grocery sector.

This sector focus looks at:

  • Inflationary factors affecting the category
  • Retail sales performance in the category
  • The performance of the major players.

We also include an Analyst's Comment looking at retail prospects for 2015.

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Table of contents

  1. Analyst Comment

    • What about 2015?
      • A good year for consumers
        • What about 2015?
          • Winners and losers
            • Figure 1: Retail sector performance, Jan – October 2014
          • Online
            • The messages from 2014
            • Retail Sales – Background and Outlook

              • Key points
                • Retail sales trends
                  • Figure 2: Retail sales trends, 2013-14
                  • Figure 3: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, 2013-2014
                • John Lewis
                  • Figure 4: John Lewis: Year-on-Year Growth, 2014
                • Inflation and wages
                  • Figure 5: The income squeeze: Wages growth vs inflation, 2009-2014
                • Inflation
                  • Figure 6: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2013-14
                • Looking forward
                • Sector Focus – The Grocery Sector, Christmas 2014

                    • Executive summary
                      • Deflation hits sector sales values
                        • Figure 7: Consumer prices, January – October 2014
                        • Figure 8: Grocery retailers’ sector value sales: annual % change, January 2012 – October 2014
                        • Figure 9: Grocery retailers: sector size and forecast (incl. VAT), 2009-15
                      • Market shares: three of the Big Four set for 2014 declines
                          • Figure 10: Leading grocery retailers: Share of sector sales, 2012-14
                        • Aldi and Lidl: gaining share of basket more than share of shoppers
                          • Tesco’s profit warning: the positives
                            • It will be a weak Christmas, especially for the Big Four
                            • Headlines for the Month

                              • Convenience stores
                                • Grocers
                                  • Clothing retailing
                                    • Multi-Sector retailing
                                      • Home and DIY retailing
                                        • Home shopping
                                          • Shopping locations
                                            • Economy
                                            • News Analysis – Food & Drink

                                              • Co-ops
                                                • UK: Co-operative Food
                                                  • …appoints Retail and Logistics Director
                                                    • …commits £1.5bn to UK Farmers
                                                      • …launches ‘Swipe and Win’
                                                        • …reveals survey results
                                                          • UK: The Co-operative Group acquires seven stores
                                                            • Convenience Stores
                                                              • UK: Blakemore & Sons sales up 5%
                                                                • UK: McColl’s new stores drive sales
                                                                  • UK: One Stop to franchise in Scotland
                                                                    • Grocers
                                                                      • UK: Aldi
                                                                        • …Matthew Barnes becomes chief executive
                                                                          • …to create 35,000 jobs in the UK
                                                                            • …to launch restaurant pop-ups
                                                                              • …to open Isle of Sheppey distribution centre
                                                                                • UK: Asda like-for-likes down 1.6%
                                                                                  • UK: Grocery sales decline
                                                                                    • UK: Morrisons to close six convenience stores
                                                                                      • UK: Sainsbury’s
                                                                                        • …app to speed up shopping
                                                                                          • …sales down 0.2%
                                                                                            • …Tesco Price Promise appeal dismissed
                                                                                              • …to cut back on store openings
                                                                                                • UK: Tesco
                                                                                                  • …announces Executive Committee changes
                                                                                                    • …issues further profit warning
                                                                                                      • …suspended directors to be dismissed
                                                                                                        • …to take control of its cafés
                                                                                                          • UK: Waitrose
                                                                                                            • …installs lockers at Southampton Airport Parkway station
                                                                                                              • …opens new concept store
                                                                                                                • …to stock Anya Hindmarch-designed cereal boxes
                                                                                                                  • Other food specialists
                                                                                                                    • UK: Conviviality Retail posts revenues of £183m
                                                                                                                      • UK: Majestic Wine sales up 2.8%
                                                                                                                        • Home shopping
                                                                                                                          • UK: Ocado
                                                                                                                            • …to fill 1,000 jobs
                                                                                                                              • …to open West London depot
                                                                                                                              • News Analysis – Non-Food

                                                                                                                                • Clothing retailing
                                                                                                                                  • UK: Arcadia profits down 5.9%
                                                                                                                                    • UK: Austin Reed to appoint Deloitte
                                                                                                                                      • UK: Blue Inc raises £4m in funding
                                                                                                                                        • UK: Bonmarché profits up 68.1%
                                                                                                                                          • UK: Boohoo launches sportswear range
                                                                                                                                            • UK: Burberry profits hit by adverse exchange rates
                                                                                                                                              • UK: David Beckham to launch clothing brand
                                                                                                                                                • UK: Edinburgh Woollen Mill profits up 26%
                                                                                                                                                  • UK: French Connection like-for-likes down 5.7%
                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Jaeger narrows losses as sales rise
                                                                                                                                                      • UK: JD Sports sells Bank
                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Mothercare UK like-for-likes up 1.5%
                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Mulberry hires new fashion director
                                                                                                                                                            • UK: New fashion chain to launch in 2015
                                                                                                                                                              • UK: New Look first half profits up 10.6%
                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Oasis
                                                                                                                                                                  • …announces Bessie the Bus
                                                                                                                                                                    • …launches 24/7 online booking for in-store styling service
                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Ted Baker revenues grow 15.7%
                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: White Stuff opens new flagship Emporium
                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Yours Clothing to expand into Scotland and Ireland
                                                                                                                                                                            • Footwear and jewellery retailing
                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Kurt Geiger sales up 13%
                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Signet revenues up 52.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Multi-Sector retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Argos
                                                                                                                                                                                      • …launches swipe-to-like app
                                                                                                                                                                                        • …releases Christmas list app
                                                                                                                                                                                          • …to open first London Underground store
                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: B&M
                                                                                                                                                                                              • …in talks to acquire Homebase stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                • …revenues up 29.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: BrightHouse sales up 3.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Poundland
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …opens new distribution centre
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • …profits up 34.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: The Original Factory Shop sees profits fall by £6m
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: The Range posts 23% sales growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Department stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Fortnum & Mason more than doubles its profits
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Harvey Nichols to open in Qatar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: John Lewis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …appoints acting group finance director
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • …finance officer leaves for M&S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • …has biggest ever sales week
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Home and DIY retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: AO World revenues up 25.1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Cath Kidston steps down as creative director
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Kingfisher retail profits down 6.9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Topps Tiles posts sales growth of 9.8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Music and video goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: GAME Q1 revenues up 17%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Phones 4U owes £78m in tax
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Vodafone eyeing Blinkbox acquisition
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: WH Smith like-for-like sales fall 1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Furniture retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: DFS signs up for Team GB
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Harvey Jones to launch first TV campaign
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Ikea invests more in staff loyalty programme
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: ScS Upholstery could return to the stock market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Home shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Amazon
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • …predicting a record number of Black Friday shoppers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • …to deliver to post offices
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: ASOS sales up 12%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Farfetch launches click-and-collect from boutiques
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Findel sales edge up in the first half
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Grazia magazine launches e-commerce site
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Hermes distribution centre fire
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: House of Fraser launches breakfast delivery
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Jacques Vert replatforms e-commerce site
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Karen Millen launches virtual store
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Net-a-Porter owner considering IPO
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Shop Direct
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …bets big on Black Friday
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • …says Black Friday was the biggest day in its trading history
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Sports and leisure goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Evans Cycles could be sold
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Mountain Warehouse profits up 65%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Sports Direct
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • …defends its use of zero-hour contracts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …to open 200 budget gyms
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Opticians
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Vision Express acquires Conlons Opticians
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Pet goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Pets at Home grows revenues by 10.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Card retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Card Factory growth driven by new store openings
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Shopping locations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Hammerson records 17% footfall increase on Black Friday
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Economy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Retail sales up 3.4% in October
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Shop prices fall 1.9% in November
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Station retail sales rise 6.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: UK retail sales flat in October
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: UK retail sales grew 0.9% in November

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Advertising Standards Authority
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Aldi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Aldi Stores Ltd (UK & Ireland)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Amazon.co.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • AO World Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • AO.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Argos
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • ASOS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • ASOS (UK retail sales)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Austin Reed Group Ltd (Retail)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • B&M Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • B&Q (UK & Ireland)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Bargain Booze Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Bhs Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Blakemore Retail Ltd (Spar)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Bluewater Shopping Centre
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Bonmarché
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Boohoo.com plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Brighthouse
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • British Retail Consortium
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Budgens Stores Ltd - retail sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Burberry Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Calvin Klein, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Cath Kidston Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Crown Eyeglass Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Currys
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • DFS Furniture Holdings Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Dorothy Perkins old
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • EE Brown Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Evans Cycles UK Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Findel plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Fortnum & Mason Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • French Connection (Retail)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Game Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • GameStop Corp
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Giraffe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Global Brands, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • H Samuel Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Hammerson
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Harvey Nichols UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Heal's Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • HMV Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Hobbs Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Home Retail Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Homebase Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • IKEA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Investec
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Jacques Vert Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Jane Norman Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • JD Sports Fashion plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • John Lewis Plc (department store)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Kingfisher Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Kitbag
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Kleeneze plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Kurt Geiger Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • LA Fitness PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Little Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Londis (Holdings) Ltd - retail sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Majestic Wine Warehouse Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • McColl's (convenience stores)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • McColl's Retail Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Morrisons M Local
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Mothercare Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Mountain Warehouse Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Mulberry Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Musgrave
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Nectar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Net-A-Porter Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Network Rail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • New Look Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Ocado
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Ocado Group plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • One Stop
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Peacock Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Pets at Home Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Phones 4U Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Poundland Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Poundstretcher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Richemont Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Screwfix UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • ScS Upholstery Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Shop Direct Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Signet Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Spar UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Sports Direct Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Ted Baker
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Ted Baker (UK and Europe Retail)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Tesco (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Co-operative Food
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Edinburgh Woollen Mill Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Original Factory Shop Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Range
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Tommy Hilfiger Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Topman old
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Topps Tiles Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Topshop old
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Vision Express (UK) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Vodafone Group Plc (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Wallis old
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • WH Smith PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • White Stuff Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Wickes Building Supplies Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Wm Morrison Supermarkets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Zale Corporation

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                UK Retail Briefing - December 2014

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