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UK Retail Briefing - December 2015

This review looks at:

  • Monthly Retail sales trends, 2014-15
  • Electricals monthly retail sales, 2014-15
  • Annual % change in the price of electrical goods, 2015
  • Annual % change in online sales of household goods, 2014-15
  • Dixons Carphone group like-for-like performance, 2014-15
  • Impact of Black Friday and its implications
  • News analysis - November- December

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Table of contents

  1. Analyst Comment

    • Black Friday and its implications
      • What happened
        • Understanding electricals
          • What does that mean in spending power?
            • Online
              • Amazon
                • So farewell then Black Friday
                  • And time to be more optimistic about December
                  • Retail Sales – Background and Outlook

                    • Key points
                      • Retail sales trends
                        • Figure 1: Retail sales trends, 2014/15
                        • Figure 2: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, 2013-15
                      • John Lewis
                        • Figure 3: John Lewis: Year-on-Year Growth, 2014-15
                      • Inflation and wages
                        • Figure 4: Real wages growth: Wages growth vs inflation, 2010-15
                      • Inflation
                        • Figure 5: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2014-15
                      • Looking forward
                      • Sector Focus – Electricals Retailing

                          • The market in 2015
                            • Figure 6: Annual percentage change in the value of retail sales in the electrical household appliances and computers & telecoms equipment categories, non-seasonally adjusted, Jan 2014-Nov-2015
                          • Inflation
                            • Figure 7: Annual percentage change in the price of electrical goods categories, Jan-Nov 2015
                          • Black Friday 2015
                            • Figure 8: Annual percentage change in online sales in household goods stores, Jan 2014-Nov-2015
                          • Dixons Carphone: exceeding expectations
                            • What we think
                            • Headlines for the Month

                              • Black Friday
                                • Convenience stores
                                  • Grocers
                                    • Clothing retailers
                                      • Multi-sector retailing
                                        • Home shopping
                                          • DIY retailing
                                            • Electrical retailing
                                              • Sports goods retailing
                                              • New Analysis – Food and Drink

                                                • Convenience stores
                                                  • UK: A.F. Blakemore benefits from strong convenience sector
                                                    • UK: Booker announces board changes
                                                      • UK: McColl’s sales grow 3.1% in 2015
                                                        • UK: Nisa
                                                          • …chairman fails to push through a governance reform
                                                            • …suffers £10.5m loss
                                                              • UK: One Stop's profits tumble £11.1m
                                                                • UK: Roadchef opens second Spar motorway store
                                                                  • UK: Simply Fresh targets railways and underground stations
                                                                    • Grocers
                                                                      • UK: Aldi and Lidl plan 171 store openings
                                                                        • UK: Asda
                                                                          • …calls time on Black Friday promotions
                                                                            • …launches third-party click-and-collect
                                                                              • …like-for-like sales fall 4.5%
                                                                                • …‘best decision’ was shunning Black Friday
                                                                                  • UK: Lidl unveils first UK 'store of the future'
                                                                                    • UK: Ocado reports double-digit Q4 growth
                                                                                      • UK: Sainsbury’s
                                                                                        • …like-for-like sales fall 1.6%
                                                                                          • …proposes gym within supermarket
                                                                                            • UK: Tesco
                                                                                              • …Extra stores to open at 5am on Black Friday
                                                                                                • …participates in Diwali celebrations
                                                                                                  • …promotes Christmas ranges with largest in-store tasting campaign
                                                                                                    • …to pay $12m to US investors
                                                                                                      • UK: Waitrose appoints head of hospitality
                                                                                                        • Other food specialists
                                                                                                          • UK: Conviviality group revenues climb 38%
                                                                                                            • UK: Holland & Barrett hires celebrity brand ambassador
                                                                                                              • UK: Majestic Wine profits fall following Naked Wines acquisition
                                                                                                                • UK: Whittard of Chelsea seeks to meet demand in China
                                                                                                                • News Analysis – Non-food

                                                                                                                  • Clothing and footwear retailing
                                                                                                                    • UK: AnnaLena Couture chooses Fulham for first UK store
                                                                                                                      • UK: Arcadia like-for-like sales fall 0.9%
                                                                                                                        • UK: Asda’s George refocuses on the customer
                                                                                                                          • UK: Bonmarché revenues rise 6.5%
                                                                                                                            • UK: Burberry
                                                                                                                              • …delivers ‘robust’ performance
                                                                                                                                • …lets customers star in a personalised Christmas advert
                                                                                                                                  • UK: Finery London pops up in London
                                                                                                                                    • UK: French Connection to close seven stores
                                                                                                                                      • UK: Jaeger sales grow 6% in 2014
                                                                                                                                        • UK: Jigsaw
                                                                                                                                          • …full-price strategy is paying off
                                                                                                                                            • …sales rise 18.5% to £104.9m
                                                                                                                                              • UK: Karen Millen makes a £9.7m loss
                                                                                                                                                • UK: Mothercare halves UK losses
                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Mulberry grows revenues by 5% in the first half
                                                                                                                                                    • UK: New Look revenues rise 5.9%
                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Oasis turns a profit for the first time in three years
                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Reiss extends personal tailoring service
                                                                                                                                                          • UK: River Island
                                                                                                                                                            • …founders invest in Mint Velvet
                                                                                                                                                              • …introduces click-and-don’t-collect service
                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Superdry’s Idris Elba collection to launch this week
                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Ted Baker sales rise as international expansion continues
                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: The White Company doubles full-year profits
                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Whistles falls into a £1.1m loss
                                                                                                                                                                        • Footwear and accessories retailing
                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Cinven poised to take over Kurt Geiger
                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Dune full-year sales rise 7.2%
                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Office
                                                                                                                                                                                • …eyed by South African retailer
                                                                                                                                                                                  • …sold to Truworths for £256m
                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Radley repositions itself to push British roots
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Jewellery retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Argento embarks on a major investment programme
                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Lovisa to open a handful of stores before Easter
                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Pandora UK revenues surge 50.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Multi-sector retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: B&M like-for-like revenues rise 1.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Cath Kidston’s losses widen to £14.2m
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Poundland
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …like-for-like sales fall 2.8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • …to trial multi-price format
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Poundworld gains £50m funding for investment
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Department stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Fortnum & Mason announce record sales and profits
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Harrods gears up for Christmas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: House of Fraser
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …creates shoppable windows for Black Friday
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …reports rising Q3 sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: John Lewis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • …fashion sales rise as cold weather hits
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • …to anchor new Edinburgh development
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Selfridges to launch new Body Studio
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • DIY retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Dobbies sales grow 7.7% in 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Kingfisher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …implements new IT platform
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • …profits suffer from ‘softer market’ in France
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Leroy Merlin considers Homebase takeover
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Topps Tiles revenues rise 8.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Electrical retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Ikea
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • …drives double-digit annual growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …eyes Bhs’ Oxford Street unit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: ScS trading in line with expectations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Home shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Amazon launches Pantry in the UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Black Friday boosts online sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Findel’s profits remain flat
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Made.com launches online mattress retailer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: New over-50s menswear brand launches
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Ocado reports double-digit Q4 growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Shop Direct call centre closures to go ahead
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: SportPursuit raises £9.5m in funding
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Sports and leisure goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Cotswold Outdoor and Snow & Rock merge
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Halfords
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • …profits down 5.9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • …unveils new ‘For Life’s Journey’ strapline
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: JD Sports ups full year profit forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Mountain Warehouse launches women’s activewear brand
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Sports Direct sales and profits up in the first half
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Greetings card retailers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Card Factory sales grow 7.9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Pet retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Pets at Home revenues grow by 6.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Economy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: November shop prices fall 2.1% year-on-year
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Retail sales edge up 0.8% in October
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Retail sales grow 0.7% in November
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Retail sales slow to 0.9% in October

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • 99p Stores Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Adeo
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Aldi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Amazon UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Amazon.com Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • AO.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Arcadia Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Argento Contemporary Jewellery Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Argos
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • AS Adventure
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • ASOS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • B&M Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • B&Q (UK & Ireland)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Bargain Booze Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Bhs Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Blakemore Retail Ltd (Spar)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Bloomingdale's
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Bonmarché
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Boohoo.com plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Booker Cash & Carry Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • British Retail Consortium
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Burberry (Europe)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Burberry Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Cath Kidston Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Costcutter Supermarkets Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Currys
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Dobbies Garden Centres plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Dune Footwear
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Dune Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Express Gifts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Findel plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Fortnum & Mason Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • French Connection (Retail)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Google, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Halfords Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Harrods Group Total
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Holland & Barrett Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Home Retail Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Homebase Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • House of Fraser Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • House of Fraser Total
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • IKEA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Jaeger Company's Shops Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • JD Sports Fashion plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Jigsaw
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • John Lewis Partnership
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • John Lewis Plc (department store)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Jones Apparel Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Karen Millen
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Kingfisher France
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Kingfisher Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Kingfisher UK & Ireland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Kitbag
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Kurt Geiger Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Leroy Merlin (Group)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Lidl (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Made.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Majestic Wine Warehouse Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Matthew Clark plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • McColl's (convenience stores)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Mothercare Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Mountain Warehouse Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Mulberry Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Naked Wines
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Nisa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Oasis Leisure Products Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Ocado
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Ocado Group plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Office Holdings Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • One Stop
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Pandora Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Pets at Home Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • PizzaExpress Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Poundland Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Pret A Manger
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Radley
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Reiss Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • River Island Clothing Co Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • River Island Holdings Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • RoadChef Motorways Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Sainsbury's Local
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Screwfix UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • ScS Upholstery Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Selfridges Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Selfridges Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Selfridges Total
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Simply Fresh
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Snow & Rock Sports Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Spar UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Sportpursuit Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Sports Direct Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • SuperGroup Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Ted Baker
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Ted Baker (UK and Europe Retail)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Tesco (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • The White Company Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • THOMAS SABO GMBH & CO.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Topps Tiles
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Topps Tiles (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Topps Tiles Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Topshop old
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Walgreens Boots Alliance UK Retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Warehouse Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Whistles Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Whittard of Chelsea
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Wm Morrison Supermarkets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Wyevale Garden Centres
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Zalando

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          UK Retail Briefing - December 2015

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