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UK Retail Briefing - January 2013

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Table of contents

  1. Analyst Comment

    • Ted Baker vs French Connection
      • Know your customer
        • Merchandise
          • Pricing
            • Stores
              • Stick to what you know
                • And French Connection?
                  • Where next?
                    • Christmas – interim report
                      • Figure 1: Christmas 2012 – selected trading results
                  • Retail Sales – Background and Outlook

                    • Key points
                      • Retail sales trends
                        • Figure 2: Retail sales trends, 2011-12
                      • BRC data for November
                        • Figure 3: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, 2010-12
                      • John Lewis
                        • Figure 4: John Lewis: Year-on-year growth, 2011-13
                      • Inflation and wages
                        • Figure 5: RPI vs Average Weekly earnings growth, 2008-12
                      • Inflation
                        • Figure 6: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2012
                      • Retail sales in 2013
                        • Retail failures
                          • Looking forward
                          • Sector Focus – Clothing and Footwear Specialists

                              • Mintel’s Tracker survey
                                • Figure 7: Mintel Tracker: Trends in what extra money is spent on, Dec 2009-Dec 2012
                                • Figure 8: Mintel Tracker: Trends in activities done and consider to do, Jun-Dec 2012
                              • Retail sales and consumer spending
                                • Figure 9: UK: Retail sales (incl. VAT), 2008-13
                                • Figure 10: UK: Consumer spending (incl. VAT), 2008-12
                              • Inflation
                                • Figure 11: UK: Consumer prices indices: Annual % change, Nov 2011-Nov 2012
                              • Leading retailers
                                  • Figure 12: UK: Leading clothing specialists by revenues, 2010-11
                                  • Figure 13: UK: Leading footwear specialists, 2010-11
                              • Headlines for the Month

                                • Grocers
                                  • Off-licences
                                    • Clothing retailing
                                      • Footwear retailing
                                        • Multi-sector retailers
                                          • Department stores
                                            • DIY retailing
                                              • Electrical retailing
                                                • Carpet retailing
                                                  • Furniture retailing
                                                    • Homewares retailing
                                                      • Home shopping
                                                        • Book and stationery retailing
                                                          • Sports and leisure goods retailing
                                                            • Jewellers
                                                              • Economy
                                                              • News Analysis

                                                                • Convenience stores
                                                                  • Martin McColl to expand convenience store portfolio
                                                                    • Co-ops
                                                                      • Co-op
                                                                        • …opens 83rd store of 2012
                                                                          • …appoints new group chief executive
                                                                            • Grocers
                                                                              • Asda
                                                                                • …affected by problems with online business over Christmas
                                                                                  • …considers opening collection hubs in train stations
                                                                                    • Booths records Christmas trading sales surge
                                                                                      • Iceland posts 1.5% rise in like-for-like sales
                                                                                        • Morrisons
                                                                                          • …appoints group finance director
                                                                                            • …appoints group marketing and customer director
                                                                                              • …reports 2.5% drop in like-for-like sales
                                                                                                • Sainsbury's
                                                                                                  • …Christmas like-for-likes up 0.9%
                                                                                                    • …appoints new group HR director
                                                                                                      • …eases restrictions on Nectar points redemption
                                                                                                        • Tesco
                                                                                                          • …and Sainsbury’s come out on top
                                                                                                            • …reports like-for-likes up 1.8%
                                                                                                              • …close to hiring new UK boss
                                                                                                                • …opens its first Christmas pop-up shop
                                                                                                                  • Waitrose
                                                                                                                    • …donates almost £3 million to Prince of Wales Charities
                                                                                                                      • …records “most successful” Christmas
                                                                                                                        • …records busiest ever Christmas and New Year trading period
                                                                                                                          • …sees 6.7% jump in week-on-week sales
                                                                                                                            • Other food specialists
                                                                                                                              • Greggs boss leaves for Brakes
                                                                                                                                • Off-licences
                                                                                                                                  • Majestic Wine posts Christmas results
                                                                                                                                    • Clothing retailing
                                                                                                                                      • American Apparel achieves 38% rise in online sales with new web platform
                                                                                                                                        • Armani hires new UK boss
                                                                                                                                          • Diesel launches pop-up shop
                                                                                                                                            • Escada’s UK managing director departs
                                                                                                                                              • Fat Face records strong Christmas sales
                                                                                                                                                • Jack & Jones continues UK expansion
                                                                                                                                                  • Jigsaw parent company back on track
                                                                                                                                                    • …returns to profit
                                                                                                                                                      • Moss Bros like-for-likes rise 10.5%
                                                                                                                                                        • New Look records 3.7% boost in like-for-likes
                                                                                                                                                          • Next raises profit forecast
                                                                                                                                                            • Paul Smith reports 3% rise in turnover
                                                                                                                                                              • Peacocks eyes Middle East and German re-entry
                                                                                                                                                                • Reiss reports 14.5% drop in EBITDA
                                                                                                                                                                  • River Island to open new London store
                                                                                                                                                                    • Superdry upsizes Bluewater store
                                                                                                                                                                      • SuperGroup reports 13.1% boost in H1 pre-tax profit
                                                                                                                                                                        • Ted Baker reports 20.9% boost in retail sales
                                                                                                                                                                          • Thomas Pink to continue overseas expansion
                                                                                                                                                                            • Warehouse managing director to step down
                                                                                                                                                                              • Weird Fish announces two new appointments to senior management team
                                                                                                                                                                                • Footwear retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Dune Group appoints ecommerce and IT directors
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Jimmy Choo to open new men’s store
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Russell & Bromley launches transactional website
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Stead & Simpson to close 90 stores
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Mixed goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Poundworld aims to double sales with new CFO appointment
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Multi-sector retailers
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Laura Ashley announces 4.9% boost in like-for-likes
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Marks and Spencer releases trading statement early
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Department stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Debenhams
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • …reports 5% rise in like-for-likes
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • …to launch ‘Made by Great Britons’ range
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Harvey Nichols in Knightsbridge rent dispute
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • House of Fraser posts record Christmas trading figures
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • John Lewis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • …enjoys second record week
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …reports 13% rise in like-for-likes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Selfridges to launch silent shopping zone
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • DIY retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • B&Q trials banking scheme
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Topps Tiles posts like-for-likes rise in first quarter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Travis Perkins reports 13.3% boost in total sales, but 5.8% drop in like-for-likes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Electrical retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Comet
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …closes remaining stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …remaining stores close
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Currys and PC World launch gift trolleys on trains
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Jessops falls into administration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Music and video goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • HMV
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • …lenders look to prevent Apollo buying the retailer’s debt
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • …targeted by American investors
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …warns over banking covenants
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Carpet retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Carpetright
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • …sees fall in sales, profits up
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • …to open more high street stores in London
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Furniture retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • DFS reports 17.2% rise in Q1 EBITDA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Dreams
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …posts 7.2% rise in like-for-likes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …receives interest from RBS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • IKEA to invest in Market Hall layout
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Homewares retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Dunelm posts 2.2% rise in H1 like-for-likes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Lakeland to launch in Germany and Saudi Arabia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The White Company doubles operating profit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Home shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Amazon brings forward Boxing Day sale
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Asos total retail sales rise 30% in Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Feelunique.com acquired in £26 million private equity deal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Hello Fresh secures investment from Vorwerk Ventures
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Furniture123 acquired by Buy It Direct
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Park Group records 12% increase in customer billing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Retail websites visited by record number of shoppers on Christmas and Boxing Day
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Play.com closes direct retail business
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Very.co.uk opens digital shop window in Liverpool
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Book and stationery retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Blackwell reduces losses
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Card Factory could be sold for £500m
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Foyles
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • …posts flat Christmas sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • …reports 25.5% drop in pre-tax profits
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Staples pilots in-store office areas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Sports and leisure goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • JD Sports reports rise in sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Sports Direct sees first-half profits soar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Jewellers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Theo Fennell halves losses
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Toys and games retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Toy ‘R’ Us plans to dominate toy market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Miscellaneous specialist retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Kiddicare opens flagship store
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Pets at Home buys specialist equestrian e-tailer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Economy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Asda income tracker: Disposable income increases
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Chinese retailers look to London for expansion opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • BDO:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • …trading conditions continue to improve
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • …market remain cautious
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • BRC: Christmas retail like-for-likes creep up 0.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Land Securities lands Google deal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Lend Lease submits application for Bluewater expansion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • ONS: November UK retail sales flat
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Retail administrations up 6% in 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • A. S. Watson UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Albert Heijn Netherlands (Ahold)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Aldi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Amazon.co.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Amazon.com Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • American Apparel, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • American Greetings Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Apollo Advisors, L.P.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Argos
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • ASOS (UK retail sales)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Barclays Bank plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Bershka France
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Best Buy Co.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Bestseller
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Blacks Outdoor Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Blackwell UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Bloomingdale's
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Bluewater Shopping Centre
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Brakes Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • British Retail Consortium
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Buy It Direct
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Carpetright Europe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Carpetright Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Carpetright UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Charterhouse Capital Partners LLP
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Clinton Cards Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Comet Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Costcutter Supermarkets Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Currys
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Darty Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • David Sands Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Debenhams (UK and Republic of Ireland)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • DFS Furniture Holdings Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Diesel
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Dixons Retail Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Dreams Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Duchy Originals
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Dune Footwear
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Dune Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Dunelm (Soft Furnishings) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • EH Booth & Co Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Ernst & Young
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Escada
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Exponent Private Equity LLP
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Fat Face Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Feelunique.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Fopp Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Fresh & Easy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Game Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Gieves Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Giorgio Armani S.p.A.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., The
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Google, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Greggs Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Grupo Inditex
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Harvey Nichols UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Heston Blumenthal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • HMV Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • House of Fraser Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Iceland Foods Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • IKEA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • J. Choo Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • JD Sports Fashion plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Jigsaw
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • JJB Sports Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • John Lewis Plc (department store)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Kantar Media
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Kew 159 Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Kiddicare
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Kingfisher Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Kingfisher UK & Ireland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • La Senza Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Lakeland Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Lakeside Shopping Centre
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Land Securities Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Laura Ashley Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Lidl (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • LK Bennett Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Lloyds Banking Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Majestic Wine Warehouse Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • McColl's Retail Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Moss Bros Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Nectar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • New Look Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Next Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Office for National Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Palamon Capital Partners
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Park Group plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Paul Smith Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • PC World (DSG UK Computing)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Peacock Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Peacocks
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Pets at Home Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Poundworld Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • PricewaterhouseCoopers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Rakuten
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Reiss Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • River Island Clothing Co Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Robinson Webster (Holdings) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Russell & Bromley Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Screwfix UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Selfridges Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Shoe Zone Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Shop Direct Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Sports Direct Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Sports Direct UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Staples UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Staples, Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Stead & Simpson Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • SuperGroup Plc (Retail)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Ted Baker
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Tesco (Japan)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Tesco Express (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The Jessops Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The White Company Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Theo Fennel PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Thomas Pink
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Topps Tiles (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Toys R Us UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Travis Perkins Retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Urban Outfitters UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Victoria's Secret
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • W&G Foyle Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Warehouse Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Westfield Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • White Stuff Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Wickes Building Supplies Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Wm Morrison Supermarkets

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            UK Retail Briefing - January 2013

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