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UK Retail Briefing - June 2014

Each month Mintel’s UK Retail Briefing concentrates on a particular sector or market. This month’s provides a sales analysis by UK region.

This sector focus looks at:

  • An update on the latest retail sales trends
  • An overview of retail sales by UK region over the last 5 years.
  • Retail news analysis across the Food and Drink and Non Food sectors for June.

We also include an Analyst's Comment looking at the impact of a likely interest rate rise by the Bank of England.

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Table of contents

  1. Analyst Comment

    • Time to be more cautious about retail sales growth
      • Interest rate increases in prospect
        • Softly, softly approach
          • But any increase would hurt
            • And the upward trend in consumer confidence would come to an end
              • A happy Christmas, but a much duller new year
              • Retail Sales – Background and Outlook

                • Key points
                  • Retail sales trends
                    • Figure 1: Retail sales trends, 2013-14
                  • BRC data for May
                    • Figure 2: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, 2012-14
                  • John Lewis
                    • Figure 3: John Lewis: Year-on-year growth, 2013-14
                  • Inflation and wages
                    • Figure 4: The income squeeze: Wages growth vs inflation, 2008-13
                  • Inflation
                    • Figure 5: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2013-14
                  • Looking forward
                  • Retail Review – Retail Sales by Region

                      • Methodology
                        • London and south east take one-third of all retail
                          • Figure 6: Retail sales: Estimated breakdown by region, 2013
                          • Figure 7: Estimated retail sales by region (incl. VAT), 2009-13
                          • Figure 8: Estimated distribution of total UK retail sales by region, 2009-13
                        • Annual growth: London is surging ahead
                          • Figure 9: Annual % change in retail sales by region, 2009-13
                          • Figure 10: Retail sales per-capita, by region (incl. VAT), 2009-13
                          • Figure 11: Estimated per-capita retail sales by region, relative to average per-capita retail sales, 2013
                        • Sentiment by region: Mintel’s Tracker survey
                          • How consumers describe their financial situation
                            • Figure 12: The consumer: How respondents would describe their financial situation, by region, May 2014
                          • Financial situation compared to a year ago
                            • Figure 13: The consumer: Current financial situation compared to a year ago, by region, May 2014
                          • What it means
                          • Headlines for the Month

                            • Co-ops
                              • Grocers
                                • Clothing retailing
                                  • Footwear retailing
                                    • Mixed goods retailing
                                      • Multi-sector retailing
                                        • Miscellaneous specialist retailing
                                          • DIY retailing
                                            • Electrical retailing
                                              • Music, video and video games retailing
                                                • Home shopping
                                                • News Analysis – Food and Drink

                                                  • Co-ops
                                                    • Co-op corporate governance structure overhaul
                                                      • Heart of England Co-op full year sales increase
                                                        • Convenience stores
                                                          • Bhs eyes food expansion
                                                            • easyFoodstore denied permission to open
                                                              • Grocers
                                                                • Aldi opens new UK training academy
                                                                  • Asda sales rise 0.1% in Q1
                                                                    • Morrisons
                                                                      • …chairman to stand down
                                                                        • …launches price tracker site
                                                                          • …to introduce new supplier charges
                                                                            • …to trial loyalty cards
                                                                              • Sainsbury’s
                                                                                • …to launch clothing online
                                                                                  • …to modify 'Brand Match'
                                                                                    • Tesco
                                                                                      • …and House of Fraser to partner online
                                                                                        • …debuts first current account
                                                                                          • …sales fall in Q1
                                                                                            • …to remove confectionery from checkouts
                                                                                              • …trials innovative Shop&Go in London store
                                                                                                • Other food specialists
                                                                                                  • Farmfoods profits fall 42%
                                                                                                  • News Analysis – Non-food

                                                                                                    • Clothing retailing
                                                                                                      • American Eagle poised to enter the UK
                                                                                                        • Arcadia Group sales rise 2.1%
                                                                                                          • Belstaff launches David Beckham collaboration
                                                                                                            • Blue Inc confirms IPO
                                                                                                              • Burberry profits increase following new CEO appointment
                                                                                                                • El Ganso to open third UK store
                                                                                                                  • Fat Face cancels IPO
                                                                                                                    • French Connection sales rise in Q1
                                                                                                                      • Inditex to launch Stradivarius in the UK
                                                                                                                        • La Perla to open first menswear store in London
                                                                                                                          • LK Bennett sales drop 3%
                                                                                                                            • Matalan sales and profits fall
                                                                                                                              • Moss Bros sales climb in Q1
                                                                                                                                • My-Wardrobe launches first store
                                                                                                                                  • New Look sales rise 3%
                                                                                                                                    • Next finance director to retire
                                                                                                                                      • Primark to buy Birmingham shopping centre
                                                                                                                                        • Scotts & Co acquire Rowlands Clothing
                                                                                                                                          • Ted Baker
                                                                                                                                            • …sales rise 17.9% in Q1
                                                                                                                                              • …to expand into audio products
                                                                                                                                                • Footwear retailing
                                                                                                                                                  • Office makes apology over security breach
                                                                                                                                                    • Shoe Zone confirms share price as it prepares to float this week
                                                                                                                                                      • Mixed goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                        • B&M Bargains
                                                                                                                                                          • …to launch £2bn IPO
                                                                                                                                                            • …confirms intention to float
                                                                                                                                                              • Poundland to launch transactional website
                                                                                                                                                                • Multi-sector retailing
                                                                                                                                                                  • Marks & Spencer sales rise 2.7%
                                                                                                                                                                    • Miscellaneous specialist retailing
                                                                                                                                                                      • Halfords acquires Boardman Bikes
                                                                                                                                                                        • Mamas and Papas owners look to sell stake
                                                                                                                                                                          • Mothercare profits jump 61%
                                                                                                                                                                            • Department stores
                                                                                                                                                                              • John Lewis opens doors of Heathrow store
                                                                                                                                                                                • Selfridges flagship to receive £300m revamp
                                                                                                                                                                                  • DIY retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Kingfisher sales rise 6.1% in Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Homebase to introduce coffee shops to stores
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Topps Tiles half year profits increase from £4.7m to £8m
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Electrical retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Carphone Warehouse and Dixons confirm merger
                                                                                                                                                                                              • CeX to trial Bitcoin in store
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Dixons sales rise 3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • EE reassures Carphone Warehouse over partnership
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Music, video and video games retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Game
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • …confirms flotation plan
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • …valued at £340m ahead of IPO
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Carpet retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Carpetright in senior management shake up
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Homewares retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Lakeland opens first Indian stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Lewis’s Home Retail acquires seven Paul Simon stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Home shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Amazon introduces dedicated dress store
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • AO World sales jump 40%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • ASOS sales rise 25% in Q3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Findel profits jump 87%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • La Redoute to open first UK store
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • MandM Direct announces IPO
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Sir Philip Green acquires 25% of MySale ahead of UK launch
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Wiggle eyes IPO
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Zalando UK to implement pick up point network
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Books and stationery retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Card Factory narrows price guidance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Health and beauty retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Boots UK sales rise 2.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Superdrug Managing Director to leave company
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Walgreens poised for Alliance Boots bid
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Sports and leisure goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Direct Golf diversifies into cycling retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • JD Sports’ boss Barry Bown leaves company
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Mountain Warehouse sales soar by 20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Sports Direct
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • …to enter the fitness market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • …to open new Oxford Street flagship
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Opticians
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Vision Express profits rises 11%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Garden centre retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Klondyke sales rise 6.6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Economy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Retail sales rise 2% in May
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Shop prices fall 1.4% in May
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Retail sales rise 9.6% in April
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Retailers to charge 5p for plastic bags
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Retail sales rise 5.7% in April
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Retail sales rise 9.6% in April

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • A. S. Watson (Europe)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Aldi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Alliance Boots UK Retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Amazon UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Amazon.co.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • American Eagle Outfitters Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • AO World Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Arcadia Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • ASOS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • ASOS (International retail sales)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • B&M Retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • B&M Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • B&Q (UK & Ireland)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Bimba & Lola
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Boots UK health & beauty retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • British Retail Consortium
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Carpetright Europe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Charterhouse Capital Partners LLP
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Dixons Retail Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Express Gifts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Farmfoods Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Fat Face Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Findel plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • French Connection (Retail)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Gala Coral Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Game Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., The
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Halfords Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • HMV Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Homebase Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • House of Fraser Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • ITV plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • JD Sports Fashion plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • John Lewis Partnership
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Kingfisher Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Kingfisher UK & Ireland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Kitbag
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Kleeneze plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • LA Fitness PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • La Redoute (pre 20xx)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Lakeland Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • LK Bennett Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Mamas & Papas Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Matalan Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Moss Bros Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Mothercare Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Mountain Warehouse Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • My-Wardrobe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • New Look Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Next Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Office for National Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Paul Simon (London) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Primark/Penneys
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Savers Health and Beauty Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Savills Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Screwfix UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Selfridges Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Shoe Zone Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Sports Direct Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Superdrug Stores Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Tata Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Ted Baker
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Tesco (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Tesco Personal Finance Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • The Carphone Warehouse Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Topps Tiles
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Topshop old
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Vision Express (UK) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Walgreen Co
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Westfield Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Wiggle
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Wm Morrison Supermarkets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Zalando

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        UK Retail Briefing - June 2014

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