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UK Retail Briefing - June 2017

Each month Mintel's UK Retail Briefing concentrates on a particular sector or market. This month, we look at Food retailing.

This review looks at:

  • Change in the value sales of food retailers, Jan 2016- May 2017
  • Impact of inflation on the food retail sector
  • The Brexit effect
  • Impact on consumer confidence over the year ahead
  • Estimated breakdown of grocery retail channels, 2012-17
  • What does it mean for the food retail sector?

We also include an Analyst Comment on retail credit and its importance to Shop Direct.

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Table of contents

  1. Analyst Comment

    • Online and credit
      • Some history
        • What Shop Direct has done
          • Credit
            • Self-limiting?
              • Figure 1: How online shoppers have paid for purchases in the last 12 months, May 2017
            • Where next?
            • UK Retail Sales

              • Key points
                • Retail sales
                    • Figure 2: Retail sales trends, 2016-17
                    • Figure 3: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, May 2015-May, 2017
                  • John Lewis
                    • Figure 4: John Lewis: year-on-year growth, Apr 2016-May 2017
                  • Inflation and wages
                    • Figure 5: Real wages growth: wages growth vs inflation, 2012-17
                  • Rising inflation
                    • Figure 6: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2016-17
                  • Looking forward
                  • Sector Focus – Food Retailing

                      • Value sales being driven by inflation
                        • Figure 7: Annual percentage change in the value sales of food retailers, Jan 2016-May 2017
                        • Figure 8: Annual percentage change in the value sales of food retailers, detailed breakdown, Jan 2016-May 2017
                      • Inflation: Brexit starting to show its full effects
                        • Figure 9: Annual percentage change in the price of food and non-alcoholic beverages and alcoholic beverages and tobacco, Sep 2016-May 2017
                        • Figure 10: Detailed breakdown of the annual percentage change in core food, non-alcoholic drinks and alcoholic drinks categories, Sep 2016-May 2017
                      • Volume growth continues to be strong
                        • Figure 11: Annual percentage change in the value and volume of goods sold in food stores, Jan 2016-May 2017
                        • Figure 12: Annual percentage change in the volume sales of food retailers, detailed breakdown, Jan 2016-May 2017
                      • The Brexit effect
                        • Figure 13: Consumer financial confidence over the next year, Jan 16-May 17
                      • What does this mean for the grocery sector?
                          • Figure 14: Estimated breakdown of grocery sector sales, by channel, 2012-17
                      • Headlines for the Month

                        • Convenience stores
                          • Grocers
                            • Clothing retailing
                              • Footwear retailing
                                • Multi-sector retailing
                                  • DIY retailing
                                    • Electrical retailing
                                      • Home shopping
                                        • Book and stationery retailing
                                        • News Analysis – Food and Drink

                                          • Convenience stores
                                            • UK – McColls eyes up One Stop
                                              • UK – Spar sales rise 8.5%
                                                • UK – Tesco's One Stop achieves 7% like-for-like growth
                                                  • Grocers
                                                    • UK – Aldi envisages ambitious UK growth
                                                      • UK – Asda shortens payment terms for suppliers
                                                        • UK – Booths chief executive departs
                                                          • UK – Iceland reports rise in full-year sales and profits
                                                            • UK – Lidl to launch fashion range with Heidi Klum
                                                              • UK – Sainsbury's
                                                                • …hires new trend team to bolster clothing ranges
                                                                  • …introduces Asian buns and gluten-free options in food-to-go
                                                                    • UK – Tesco
                                                                      • …celebrating links with British farmers at agricultural shows
                                                                        • …CEO under pressure over relocation deal
                                                                          • …introduces dietary food search tool
                                                                            • …introduces monthly Delivery Saver plan
                                                                              • …investors oppose Booker takeover
                                                                                • …to trial Currys PC World concessions in-store
                                                                                  • …Tesco-Booker merger faces competition inquiry
                                                                                    • Other food and drink specialists
                                                                                      • UK – Costco sales rise 8%
                                                                                        • UK – Conviviality retail sales increase 6.1%
                                                                                          • UK – Greggs makes a 'good start' to the year
                                                                                          • News Analysis – Non-food

                                                                                            • Clothing retailing
                                                                                              • UK – Arcadia
                                                                                                • …group sales fall 17%
                                                                                                  • UK – Burberry underlying profits fall due to strategic investments
                                                                                                    • UK – Canada Goose to open first European store in London
                                                                                                      • UK – Edinburgh Woollen Mill opens first department store
                                                                                                        • UK – H&M launches new loyalty scheme
                                                                                                          • UK – Jacques Vert close to administration
                                                                                                            • UK – Joules anticipates strengthened profit margins ahead of full results
                                                                                                              • UK – Joy bought out of administration
                                                                                                                • UK – Matalan’s focus on full-price sales boosts profits
                                                                                                                  • UK – Missguided opens first store outside London
                                                                                                                    • UK – New Look revenues fall 2.4%
                                                                                                                      • UK – Next secures new flagship store
                                                                                                                        • UK – Style Group Brands set to be rescued by investor group
                                                                                                                          • UK – SuperGroup global revenues boosted weak sterling
                                                                                                                            • UK – The Idle Man starts crowdfunding campaign
                                                                                                                              • Footwear retailing
                                                                                                                                • UK – Clarks
                                                                                                                                  • …hires new CFO
                                                                                                                                    • …profits down
                                                                                                                                      • UK – Schuh sales increase 5.3%
                                                                                                                                        • UK – Shoe Zone sales fall 2%
                                                                                                                                          • Multi-sector retailing
                                                                                                                                            • UK – B&M
                                                                                                                                              • …revenues rise 19.4%
                                                                                                                                                • …shareholders to sell significant stake in business
                                                                                                                                                  • UK – Halfords retail sales rise 8%
                                                                                                                                                    • UK – M&S
                                                                                                                                                      • …announces community transformation programme
                                                                                                                                                        • …sales rise 0.6%
                                                                                                                                                          • UK – Mothercare derives 41% of turnover online
                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Store Twenty One granted time to raise funds
                                                                                                                                                              • DIY retailing
                                                                                                                                                                • UK – Kingfisher revenue held back by France
                                                                                                                                                                  • UK – Topps Tiles revenue down 1.3%
                                                                                                                                                                    • Electrical retailing
                                                                                                                                                                      • UK – Dixons Carphone full-year sales up 9%
                                                                                                                                                                        • Furniture retailing
                                                                                                                                                                          • UK – Dreams eyed by international mattress makers
                                                                                                                                                                            • UK – Hillarys sold to Hunter Douglas
                                                                                                                                                                              • UK – IKEA launches range with fashion stylist Bea Åkerlund
                                                                                                                                                                                • UK – ScS MD to step down
                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK – Steinhoff UK revenues fall on sterling weakness
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Home shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK – Amara narrows losses following sales surge
                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK – Amazon
                                                                                                                                                                                          • …expands Amazon Fresh delivery to new postcodes
                                                                                                                                                                                            • …lures subscribers with exclusive live music events
                                                                                                                                                                                              • …trademarks checkout-free supermarket slogan in the UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK – AO sales surpass €700m mark
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK – ASOS unveils ambitions to bolster beauty offer
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK – Boohoo group revenues double in Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK – Eve Sleep raises €35m through IPO
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK – Gear4Music delivers profitable growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK – MyOptique losses double
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK – Ocado signs new European deal
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK – Shop Direct bidders put-off by credit business
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK – Yoox Net-a-Porter Group reveals fur-free policy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Health and beauty retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK – Body Shop price tag hurt by decline in profits
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Book and stationery retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK – Card Factory reports strong start to the year
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK – iCandy falls into administration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK – The Works set to be sold
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Sports and leisure goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK – JD Sports Go Outdoors acquisition approved
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK – Mountain Warehouse eyes expansion as profits and sales rise
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Garden centres
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK – Blue Diamond like-for-likes up 8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Pet specialists
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK – Pets at Home LFL sales rise 1.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Shopping locations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK – Westfield partnering with Uber
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Economy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK – BRC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …reports decline in like-for-like retail sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK – Barclaycard trials for checkout free payment app
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK – Retail sales surge 8.1% in April
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK – Retailers sign up to part-time worker scheme
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK – Vacancy rate for retail warehousing units falls to new low

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Aldi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Amara Living
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Amazon UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • AO UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Arcadia Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • ASOS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • B&M Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • B&Q (UK & Ireland)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Barclaycard
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Bargain Booze Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Bensons Bed Centres Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Blue Diamond
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Boohoo.com plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Booker food retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Brico Depôt (France)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • British Retail Consortium
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Burberry Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • C&J Clark Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Castorama (Russia)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Clintons Cards (AG Retail Cards Ltd)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Conforama
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Costco Wholesale Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Currys
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Dixons Carphone
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Dixons Carphone (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Dreams (Dreams Topco Ltd)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • EH Booth & Co Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Gear4Music
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Go Outdoors Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Greggs Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • H&M Hennes & Mauritz
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Harveys Furnishing Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Hillarys Blinds Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Holland & Barrett Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Hunter Douglas (UK) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Iceland Foods Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • IKEA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Jacques Vert Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Jawoll
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • JD Sports Fashion plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • John Lewis Partnership
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Joules
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Joy the store
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Kika (Austria)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Kingfisher Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Lidl (Germany)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Lipsy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Londis (Holdings) Ltd - retail sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Matalan Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • McKinsey & Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Merry Hill Shopping Centre
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Mothercare Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Mountain Warehouse Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Net-A-Porter Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • New Look Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Next Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Ocado Group plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • One Stop
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Poco Loco (Sweden)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Poundland Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Premier
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • River Island Holdings Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Sainsbury's Local
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Schuh (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Screwfix UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • ScS Upholstery Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Shoe Zone Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Shop Direct Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Showroomprive.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Spar UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Steinhoff Continental Europe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Steinhoff UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • SuperGroup Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • SuperGroup UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • TAG Heuer International SA 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Tesco (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The Edinburgh Woollen Mill Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • TJ Morris Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Topps Tiles (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Virgin Holidays
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Westfield Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • YNAP (UK)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            UK Retail Briefing - June 2017

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