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UK Retail Briefing - May 2017

Analyst comment on the state of play in retailing and specifically looking at vacancy rates across the UK's shopping locations.

This month's UKRB sector focus includes:

  • Total DIY/Hardware specialist sector size, 2012-16
  • Annual % change in the value of all DIY specialist sales, Non-seasonally adjusted, Jan 2016- April 2017
  • Annual number of property transactions with a value of £40,000 or above, 2006-16
  • Housing tenure in England, 2005-16
  • Factors most important when shopping for DIY products, March 2017

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Table of contents

  1. Analyst Comment

    • Vacancy rates hit new lows
      • Headline figures don’t tell the whole story
        • High streets switch from retail to services
          • High street fashion closures
            • Retail parks
              • But are these short term trends going to hold true in the longer term?
                • A complex business
                • Retail Sales

                  • Key points
                    • Retail sales
                      • Figure 1: Retail sales trends, 2016/17
                      • Figure 2: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, Jan 2015-April 2017
                    • John Lewis
                      • Figure 3: John Lewis: Year-on-year growth, March 2016-May 2017
                    • Inflation and wages
                      • Figure 4: Real wages growth: Wages growth vs inflation, 2012-17
                    • Rising inflation
                      • Figure 5: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2016-17
                    • Looking forward
                    • Sector Focus

                        • Market returns to growth
                          • Figure 6: Total DIY/hardware specialist sector size (including VAT), 2012-16
                        • Seasonally affected sales
                          • Figure 7: Annual % change in the value of all DIY specialist sales, non-seasonally adjusted, Jan 2016- Apr 2017
                        • Property transactions
                          • Figure 8: Annual number of property transactions with a value of £40,000 or above (non-seasonally adjusted), 2006-16
                          • Figure 9: Monthly number of property transactions valued at over £40,000 (non-seasonally adjusted), January 2016-March 2017
                        • Falling number of people buying houses on a mortgage
                          • Figure 10: Housing tenure in England, 2005-16
                        • Quality the biggest concern for shoppers
                          • Figure 11: Factors important when shopping for DIY products, March 2017
                        • What we think
                        • Headlines for the Month

                          • Grocers
                            • Clothing retailing
                              • Footwear retailing
                                • Department stores
                                  • Multi-sector retailing
                                    • Home shopping
                                      • Health & beauty retailing
                                        • Garden centres
                                          • Opticians
                                            • Economy
                                            • News Analysis – Food and Drink

                                              • Convenience stores
                                                • UK: Simply Fresh launches new city formats
                                                  • Grocers
                                                    • UK: Asda reinstates Farm Stores brand to replace Smart Price
                                                      • UK: Morrisons
                                                        • …cuts the price of 1,000 items
                                                          • …like-for-like sales rise 3.4%
                                                            • UK: Sainsbury's
                                                              • …adds Asian buns and gluten-free options in food-to-go
                                                                • …full-year profits slip 1%
                                                                  • …introduces branded apparel with Russell Athletic
                                                                    • …plots further growth for Argos and Habitat
                                                                      • UK: Tesco
                                                                        • …launches healthier living campaign
                                                                          • …sells opticians business to Vision Express
                                                                            • …like-for-like sales rise 0.9%
                                                                              • UK: The Co-op Welsh store expansion
                                                                                • UK: Waitrose trialling recipe box subscription
                                                                                • News Analysis - Non-Food

                                                                                  • Clothing retailing
                                                                                    • UK: Ann Summers turnover declines 3%
                                                                                      • UK: Arcadia set to launch Outfit fascia on the high-street
                                                                                        • UK: Boden to open John Lewis concessions
                                                                                          • UK: Bombinate: New men's fashion marketplace set for launch
                                                                                            • UK: Bonmarché sees improvement in Q4
                                                                                              • UK: Burberry
                                                                                                • …announces staff relocation
                                                                                                  • …retail revenues up 3% led by the UK
                                                                                                    • UK: Coast, Oasis and Warehouse receive bidder interest
                                                                                                      • UK: Honey Birdette plots UK retail roll-out
                                                                                                        • UK: Jaeger
                                                                                                          • …announces 200 job cuts amid store closures
                                                                                                            • …collapses into administration
                                                                                                              • UK: Kit and Ace closes shop in the UK, US and Australia
                                                                                                                • UK: Monsoon reports decline in profits
                                                                                                                  • UK: Next total sales down 2.5%
                                                                                                                    • UK: Primark
                                                                                                                      • …owner seeks new chairman
                                                                                                                        • …performs well in the UK and Europe
                                                                                                                          • UK: Store Twenty One facing potential collapse
                                                                                                                            • Footwear retailing
                                                                                                                              • UK: Clarks axes HQ roles
                                                                                                                                • UK: Jimmy Choo business up for sale
                                                                                                                                  • UK: LK Bennett's founder to return as adviser
                                                                                                                                    • UK: Rylko prepares for UK launch
                                                                                                                                      • UK: Soletrader revenues broadly flat on the year
                                                                                                                                        • Multi-sector retailing
                                                                                                                                          • UK: Halfords' CEO Jill McDonald to head up M&S clothing
                                                                                                                                            • UK: M&S aligns clothing and food in 'Spend it Well' campaign
                                                                                                                                              • UK: Marks & Spencer to open 36 stores in six months
                                                                                                                                                • UK: Marks & Spencer to trial online food offering
                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Pep&Co suffers loss in first trading period
                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Woolworths may make a return to UK high street
                                                                                                                                                      • Department stores
                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Debenhams
                                                                                                                                                          • …to reveal store overhaul plans
                                                                                                                                                            • …unveils new strategy amid declining profits
                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Fenwick to close Windsor department store
                                                                                                                                                                • UK: House of Fraser
                                                                                                                                                                  • …former chief executive joins The Range
                                                                                                                                                                    • …like-for-like sales grow 0.9%
                                                                                                                                                                      • Carpet retailing
                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Carpetright like-for-likes rise 1.4%
                                                                                                                                                                          • DIY retailing
                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Bunnings reports rise in UK sales
                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Travis Perkins like-for-likes up 2.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                • Furniture retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Bathstore experiments with alternative reality in-store
                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Dunelm struggles to grow sales
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Home shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Amazon
                                                                                                                                                                                          • …launches own fashion label Find
                                                                                                                                                                                            • …lures subscribers with exclusive live music events
                                                                                                                                                                                              • …unveils weather-personalised shopping feature
                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Boden to open John Lewis concessions
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Boohoo reports surge in sales and profits
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Gear4Music delivers profitable growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Eve Sleep readies first London Stock Exchange float
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: JoJo Maman Bébé hires Jaeger trading director
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Lavitta closes all stores after a year in operation
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Missguided
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • …considering sale or flotation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • …sales surge yet profits undisclosed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: N Brown profits fall amid investment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: The Hut sales soar 50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Watchshop.com launches sunglasses boutique
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Health & beauty retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Superdrug extends vegan cosmetics range
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Book and stationery retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: WH Smith revenues rise 2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Sports and leisure goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: JD Sports grows 31% as fashion division outperforms
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Garden centres
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Dobbies teams up with Ocado online
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Luxury goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • International: Kering unveils outstanding revenue growth in Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • International: LVMH
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • …records 15% turnover rise in Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • …to buy Christian Dior Couture
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • International: Coach agrees to buy Kate Spade
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Opticians
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Tesco sells opticians business to Vision Express
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Shopping locations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Hammerson and Appear Here partner on pop-up initiative
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Oxford Street transformation project due to begin in 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Economy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Deflation in non-food prices begins to ease
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Easter sees healthy rise in footfall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Grocery market grows 3.7% over Easter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: March retail sales decline 1.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Retail sales grow 3.3% in March
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Retail sales grow 5.6% in April
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Retailers see growth in online searches
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Springboard forecasts 5.4% Easter footfall boost
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Vacancy rate on retail parks falls to new low
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Visa reports slowing consumer spending

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Amazon UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Amazon.com Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Ann Summers Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Arcadia Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Argos
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Bathstore.com Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Boden UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Bonmarché
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Boohoo.com plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • British Retail Consortium
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Burberry Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • C&J Clark Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Carpetright Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Christian Dior
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Coach, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Coast
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Department for Transport
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Dobbies Garden Centres plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Dunelm (Soft Furnishings) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Fenwick Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Gear4Music
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Habitat
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • House of Fraser Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • J. Choo Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Jaeger Company's Shops Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • JD Sports Fashion plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • John Lewis Plc (department store)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • JoJo Maman Bebe Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • kate spade LLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Kering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • LK Bennett Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Missguided
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Monsoon Accessorize Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • N Brown Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Next Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Ocado Group plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Outfit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Pepkor UK Retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Poundland Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Primark Stores Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Russell Athletic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Sainsbury's Local
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Simply Fresh
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Sole Trader (Twinmar Ltd)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Superdrug Stores Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Tesco (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • The Hut Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • The Range
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Travis Perkins PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Vision Express (UK) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Warehouse Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Westminster City Council
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • WH Smith PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Wm Morrison Supermarkets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Woolworths

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  UK Retail Briefing - May 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  US $382.00 (Excl.Tax)