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UK Retail Briefing - November 2015

This review looks at:

  • DIY monthly retail sales, 2014-15
  • Annual percentage change in online retail sales, and online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, 2010-2020
  •  Annual % change in consumer price index for furniture, household equipment and routine maintenance and overall CPI, 2014-15
  • Number of residential property transactions in the UK with a value of £40,000 or above, 2007-2014
  • % of individuals living in households by tenure, 2010-14
  • Performance of the Leading UK DIY retailers
We also include Analyst Comments on Black Friday and the latest trading performance among the leading Grocery multiples.

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Table of contents

  1. Analyst Comments

    • Black Friday
      • Asda standing apart
        • Tesco
          • The others
            • Implications
              • Supermarkets
                • Third quarter results
                  • Figure 1: Leading food retailers: Latest quarter, like-for-like sales growth, excluding fuel, November 2015
                • Kantar data
                  • What is going on? – short term
                    • Longer term
                      • Where next?
                      • Retail Sales – Background and Outlook

                        • Key points
                          • Retail sales trends
                            • Figure 2: Retail sales trends, 2014/15
                            • Figure 3: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, 2013-15
                          • John Lewis
                            • Figure 4: John Lewis: Year-on-Year Growth, 2014-15
                          • Inflation and wages
                            • Figure 5: Real wages growth: Wages growth vs inflation, 2010-15
                          • Inflation
                            • Figure 6: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2014-15
                          • Looking forward
                          • Sector Focus – DIY Retailing

                              • A cool spring hurts retail sales
                                • Figure 7: DIY and Hardware specialists sales: annual % change Jan 2014-Sep 2015
                              • Deflation a downward driver
                                • Figure 8: Annual% change in consumer price index for furniture, household equipment & routine maintenance and overall CPI, Jan 2014-Sep 2015
                              • Property market continues to improve…..
                                • Figure 9: Number of residential property transactions in the UK with value of £40,000 or above, 2007-14
                              • …..but the issues around renting remain
                                • Figure 10: Percentage of individuals living in households by tenure, 2010-14
                              • Performance of the majors in 2015
                                • Figure 11: Leading DIY retailers: annual % change in total sales, Q1, Q2 and H1 2015
                                • Figure 12: Leading DIY retailers: annual % change in like-for-like sales, Q1, Q2 and H1 2015
                            • Headlines for the Month

                              • Grocers
                                • Clothing retailers
                                  • Multi-sector retailing
                                    • Department stores
                                      • Furniture and homeware retailing
                                        • Home shopping
                                          • Sports and leisure goods retailing
                                            • Economy
                                            • New Analysis – Food

                                              • Convenience stores
                                                • UK: McColl’s to divest 100 newsagents
                                                  • UK: One Stop to participate in Black Friday
                                                    • UK: Rebranded My Local stores open their doors
                                                      • Grocers
                                                        • UK: Asda
                                                          • …announces Project Renewal
                                                            • …hires Sainsbury’s retail and operations director
                                                              • …may scale back Black Friday involvement
                                                                • …unveils Halloween VR experience
                                                                  • UK: Booths sales decline amid competitive market
                                                                    • UK: Morrisons
                                                                      • …implements food donation programme
                                                                        • …sales fall 2.0% in Q3
                                                                          • UK: Sainsbury’s
                                                                            • …experiments with new formats
                                                                              • …outperforms the grocery market again
                                                                                • UK: Tesco
                                                                                  • …changes ‘Price Promise’ to ‘Brand Guarantee’
                                                                                    • …launches Arcadia brands in Extra stores
                                                                                      • UK: Waitrose
                                                                                        • …launches standalone Kitchen website
                                                                                          • …Mark Price stands down
                                                                                            • Other food and drink specialists
                                                                                              • France: Biocoop plans forty new store openings
                                                                                                • Italy: New French fine food store opens in Rome
                                                                                                  • UK: Greggs eyes expansion to 2,000 outlets
                                                                                                    • UK: Majestic Wine introduces simpler pricing proposition
                                                                                                    • News Analysis - Non-Food

                                                                                                      • Clothing retailing
                                                                                                        • UK: All Saints sales grow 6%
                                                                                                          • UK: Brantano and Jones Bootmaker sold for £12m
                                                                                                            • UK: Burberry
                                                                                                              • …moves production to Leeds
                                                                                                                • …to merge Prorsum, Brit and London labels
                                                                                                                  • UK: Harris Tweed’s golfing range drives growth
                                                                                                                    • UK: Hunter Boot revenues rise 17%
                                                                                                                      • UK: Jack Wills founder back at the helm as losses widen
                                                                                                                        • UK: M&Co hosts Yours Clothing concession
                                                                                                                          • UK: Mothercare UK like-for-like sales up 6.5%
                                                                                                                            • UK: New Look
                                                                                                                              • …revenues rise 5.9%
                                                                                                                                • …to open at least 15 menswear stores in 2016
                                                                                                                                  • UK: Oasis to unveil new London concept store
                                                                                                                                    • UK: Office doubles profits despite investments
                                                                                                                                      • UK: Pandora UK revenues surge 50.5%
                                                                                                                                        • UK: Pep&Co founder to launch a new discount variety chain
                                                                                                                                          • UK: Primark revenues rise 8%
                                                                                                                                            • UK: Reiss
                                                                                                                                              • …plots international expansion following record sales
                                                                                                                                                • …profits surge on the back of organic growth
                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Scarlett & Jo launches e-commerce site
                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Shoe Zone trades well in the second half
                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Superdry retail revenues surge 30.9%
                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Topshop hosts 3D printed jewellery pop-up
                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Whistles hosts dedicated menswear pop-up
                                                                                                                                                            • Multi-sector retailing
                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Home Retail warns on profits as Black Friday approaches
                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Marks and Spencer’s
                                                                                                                                                                  • …delivers ‘good’ underlying profit growth
                                                                                                                                                                    • …unveils Sparks loyalty scheme
                                                                                                                                                                      • …releases ‘mobile-first’ Christmas campaign
                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Matalan warehousing issues hit profits
                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Next Q3 brand sales rise 6.0%
                                                                                                                                                                            • Department stores
                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Bhs exploring sale of Oxford Street flagship
                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Debenhams delivers profit in line with expectations
                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Fenwick reports falling sales and profits
                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Harrods luxury brand focus drives sales up 1.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: John Lewis unveils Christmas Man on the Moon advert
                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Liberty to launch new brand collaborations
                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Selfridges reports 4.3% rise in sales
                                                                                                                                                                                            • DIY retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Travis Perkins sales grow 5.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Electrical retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Currys PC World trials collection in Carphone Warehouse stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Furniture and homeware retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Carpetright sales rise 2.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Habitat unveils redesigned flagship store
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Ikea creates animated films for toy launch
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Home shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Asos revenues climb 18%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: EBay and Argos extend partnership
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Missguided generates £4m from personalisation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: N Brown first-half revenues rise 4.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Photobox sold for £400m
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Shop Direct profits surge 78%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Health and beauty retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Well completes rebrand of 782 pharmacies
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Toy and games retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: GAME full-year revenues up 0.6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Hamleys
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …owners in negotiations to sell business
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …sale agreed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Toys R Us reports first profit growth in five years
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Sports and leisure goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Go Outdoors benefits from the ‘glamping’ trend
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Mountain Warehouse sales rise as it announces China launch
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: North Face opens new Regent Street flagship
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Wiggle UK sales surge 26%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Greetings cards and stationary retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Paperchase secures £50m funding
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: WH Smith focuses on profits as high street sales slip
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Pet retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Pets at Home revenues grow 6.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Shopping locations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Bradford Broadway opens its doors
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Intu boasts of improved occupancy rates
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Retail footfall improves as Christmas nears
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Economy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Government to launch price comparison consultation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Retailers divided over Sunday trading debate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Retail sales rise 3.4% in September
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Retail sales slow to 0.9% in October
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: September retail sales boosted by bank holiday

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Age UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Aldi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • All Saints
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Arcadia Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Argos
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • ASOS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • B&M Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Bhs Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Biocoop
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Brantano (Group)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Burberry Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Burton old
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Carpetright Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Chanel Ltd (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Christian Dior
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Claire's Stores Europe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Coca-Cola Company (The)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Currys
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Debenhams UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Dolce & Gabbana
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Dorothy Perkins old
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Ebay UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • EH Booth & Co Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Electra Partners Europe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Evans old
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Exponent Private Equity LLP
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Fenwick Ltd Total
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Game Digital plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Go Outdoors Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Google, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Greggs Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • H&M Hennes & Mauritz
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Habitat
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Hamleys of London Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Harrods Group Total
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Harvey Nichols UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Home Retail Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Homebase Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • House of Fraser Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Iceland Foods Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • IKEA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Jack Wills Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • JD Sports Fashion plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Jeyes UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • John Lewis Partnership
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • John Lewis Plc (department store)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Jones Bootmaker
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Liberty Retail Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Macintosh Fashion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Macintosh Retail Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Mackays Stores Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Majestic Wine Warehouse Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Mamas & Papas Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Marks & Spencer (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Matalan Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • McColl's Retail Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Moonpig.com Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Mothercare Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Mountain Warehouse Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • N Brown Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • New Look (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • New Look Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Next Directory
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Next Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Nisa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Office Holdings Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • One Stop
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Other Europe (Ahold)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Pandora Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Paperchase Products Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Pavers Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • PC World (DSG UK Computing)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Pepkor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Pets at Home Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Poundstretcher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Prada (I Pellettieri d'Italia S.p.A.)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Primark Stores Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Primark/Penneys
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Reiss Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Sainsbury's Local
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Schwarz Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Selfridges Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Shoe Zone Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Shop Direct Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Sock Shop UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • SuperGroup Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Tesco (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • TGI Friday's
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Carphone Warehouse Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Neiman Marcus Group Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The North Face Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Tile Giant
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Toolstation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Topman old
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Topshop old
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Toys R Us
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Travis Perkins PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Travis Perkins Retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Vivienne Westwood Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Walmart Stores (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Walt Disney Company, The
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Well
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • WH Smith PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Whistles Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Wickes Building Supplies Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Wiggle
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Wm Morrison Supermarkets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Woolworths
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • YouTube, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Zalando

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                UK Retail Briefing - November 2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                £295.00 (Excl.Tax)