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UK Retail Briefing - October 2015

Each month Mintel’s UK Retail Briefing concentrates on a particular sector or market. This month, we look at online retailing.

This review looks at:

  • Forecast of online retail sales, 2010-20
  • Annual percentage change in online retail sales, and online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, 2010-2020
  • Contribution to online retail sales by store-based and online-only retailers, 2010-2020
  • Annual percentage change in Total and online retail sales, Jan-Aug 2015
  • Consumer attitudes toward buying online, May 2015

We also include an Analyst's Comment on the prospects for Christmas trading.

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Table of contents

  1. Analyst Comment

    • Christmas is coming
      • Uncertainty
        • Consumer confidence holding up
            • Figure 1: State of consumer confidence, 2009-15
          • Retail sales in 2015
            • Figure 2: UK retail sales year on year growth 2012-15
            • Figure 3: What extra money is spent on, September 2015
          • Black Friday
            • What are we forecasting?
              • 2.5% year on year growth in December
              • Retail Sales – Background and Outlook

                • Key points
                  • Retail sales trends
                    • Figure 4: Retail sales trends, 2014/15
                    • Figure 5: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, 2013-15
                  • John Lewis
                    • Figure 6: John Lewis: Year-on-year growth, 2014-15
                  • Inflation and wages
                    • Figure 7: The income squeeze: Wages growth vs inflation, 2010-15
                  • Inflation
                    • Figure 8: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2014-15
                  • Looking forward
                  • Sector Focus – Online Retailing

                      • Online retailing: a £43 billion market in 2015
                        • Figure 9: Online retail sales (inc. VAT) in current and constant prices, 2010-20
                      • Growth slowing as the market matures
                        • Figure 10: Annual percentage change in online retail sales, and online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, 2010-20
                      • Contribution of online and store based
                        • Figure 11: Contribution to online retail sales by store-based and online-only retailers, 2010-20
                      • Seasonality of online sales
                        • Figure 12: Value of all Online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by season, 2014
                      • Online sales in the first eight months
                        • Figure 13: Annual percentage change in Total and online retail sales, Jan-Aug 2015
                      • The fulfilment war
                          • Figure 14: Attitudes toward buying online, May 2015
                      • Headlines for the Month

                        • Grocers
                          • Clothing retailers
                            • Multi-sector retailing
                              • Department stores
                                • DIY retailing
                                  • Homewares and furniture retailing
                                    • Home shopping
                                      • Sports and leisure goods retailing
                                        • Shopping locations
                                          • Economy
                                          • News Analysis – Food and Drink Retailing

                                            • Convenience Stores
                                              • UK: M Local stores to be rebranded to My Local following acquisition
                                                • UK: Nisa wins supply deal for My Local
                                                  • Grocers
                                                    • UK: Aldi UK announces 2016 online launch
                                                      • UK: Asda's full-year revenues dip 0.4%
                                                        • UK: Brait ups its shareholding in Iceland to 57%
                                                          • UK: Lidl
                                                            • …announces it is to pay staff ‘a real living wage’
                                                              • …to ramp up London expansion
                                                                • UK: Morrisons
                                                                  • …alters Match & More loyalty scheme
                                                                    • …appoints property director to oversee store revamp
                                                                      • …like-for-like sales down 2.4%
                                                                        • …warned against launching own online operations
                                                                          • UK: Sainsbury’s
                                                                            • …is the only of the ‘big four’ to grow sales
                                                                              • …launches in China through Tmall
                                                                                • …questioned over supplier income disclosures
                                                                                  • …sales grow 0.3% in the Q2
                                                                                    • …seeks towns to test new food waste project
                                                                                      • UK: Supermarkets already planning their Christmas delivery slots
                                                                                        • UK: Tesco
                                                                                          • …may abandon sale of Dunnhumby
                                                                                            • …operating profits fall 55%
                                                                                              • …rules out any further overseas sales
                                                                                                • UK: Waitrose
                                                                                                  • …expands Pick Your Own Offers scheme
                                                                                                    • …opens in London’s regenerated Kings Cross area
                                                                                                      • …unveils new advertising campaign
                                                                                                        • Other food and drink specialists
                                                                                                          • UK: Greggs sales up 5% in Q3
                                                                                                          • News Analysis – Non-food Retailing

                                                                                                            • Clothing retailing
                                                                                                              • UK: Adidas to open new flagship store on London’s Oxford Street
                                                                                                                • UK: Austin Reed sales fall 7.8% in 2014
                                                                                                                  • UK: Burberry launches Apple Music channel
                                                                                                                    • UK: French Connection losses widen amid poor Spring 15 collection sales
                                                                                                                      • UK: Jacques Vert relaunches popular Coatwalk charity event
                                                                                                                        • UK: Jaeger owner receives bids for the business
                                                                                                                          • UK: Jane Norman eyes high street return
                                                                                                                            • UK: Kent & Curwen sign up David Beckham
                                                                                                                              • UK: M&Co boss stands down
                                                                                                                                • UK: Moss Bros like-for-like sales up 9.7%
                                                                                                                                  • UK: New Look unveils first standalone menswear stores
                                                                                                                                    • UK: Pep&Co reaches 50 stores and prepares for menswear launch
                                                                                                                                      • UK: River Island profits soar 70%
                                                                                                                                        • UK: Superdry to launch in China through joint venture
                                                                                                                                          • UK: Surfwear brand Saltrock plans to double store network
                                                                                                                                            • UK: Ted Baker sales grow 24.5%
                                                                                                                                              • UK: TM Lewin reshuffles senior team to prepare for growth
                                                                                                                                                • Footwear retailing
                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Clarks chief executive leaves with immediate effect
                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Kurt Geiger
                                                                                                                                                      • …eyed by Lion Capital
                                                                                                                                                        • …full year profits up 278%
                                                                                                                                                          • Jewellery retailing
                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Aurum sales rise 8% following Watch Shop acquisition
                                                                                                                                                              • Multi-sector retailing
                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Argos launches same-day delivery in the UK
                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: M&S appoints new womenswear design director
                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Next Brand sales up 3.3%
                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Poundland
                                                                                                                                                                        • …to raise £50m through share placing
                                                                                                                                                                          • …99p Stores acquisition gains full approval
                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Poundworld reports surging profits
                                                                                                                                                                              • Department stores
                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: BHS secures £65m loan
                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Debenhams faces possible boardroom revolt
                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: House of Fraser drives 30.8% online growth
                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: John Lewis
                                                                                                                                                                                        • …announces Cheltenham store opening
                                                                                                                                                                                          • …announces second JLAB winner
                                                                                                                                                                                            • …introduces new benefits for loyalty card holders
                                                                                                                                                                                              • …reports 'solid' first half
                                                                                                                                                                                                • …unveils new Birmingham store
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • DIY retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Clas Ohlson opens new format store
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Kingfisher makes ‘solid’ progress with turnaround plan
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Topps Tiles like-for-like sales grow 5.3%.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Electrical retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Dixons Carphone revenues up 8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Maplin to launch live video chat function
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Music and video goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: HMV global website and store expansion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Homewares retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Better Bathrooms opens first Scottish showroom
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: DFS reports surging sales and profits
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Dreams increases profit forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Dunelm
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • …like-for-like sales rise 5.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • …revenues rise 12.6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Dyson to open a standalone store in London
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: H&M opens first global homewares concession
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Lakeland profits more than double
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Loaf opens first physical store
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Made.com international investment leads to £5.3m loss
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Matalan Direct launches into bedroom furniture
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: ScS’ concession deal with House of Fraser hits profits
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Home shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Amazon
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …rolls out one-hour grocery delivery in London
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …to start selling groceries in London and Birmingham
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: AO.com to report 30% rise in sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Boden sales remain flat
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Boohoo drives 35% growth in revenues
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Net-a-Porter Group appoints new President
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Ocado group sales rise 17.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Shop Direct likely to shut call centres
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Health and beauty retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Boots pilots personalised discount scheme
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Superdrug launches online optician service
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Greetings card retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Card Factory revenues grow by 8.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Sports and leisure goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Adidas to open new flagship store on London’s Oxford Street
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: JD Sports sales jump 21%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Sports Direct
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …enters into negotiations to acquire Heatons
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • …takes a stake in Findel
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • …to open more conjoined gym and store sites
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Wiggle to close all Homebase concessions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Opticians
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Vision Express sales rise by 11% in 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Pet retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Pets at Home hires trading director
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: The Pet Hut teams up with PDSA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Shopping locations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Ashford Designer Outlet to undergo extension
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Birmingham Grand Central shopping centre opens its doors
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Stansted Airport reveals new retail additions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Economy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Consumer Rights Act comes into force
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Plastic bag charge comes into effect
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Retail footfall falls 1.6% in August
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Retail sales rise 0.9% in August
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: The Government unveils plans to hand local authorities powers to cut business rates

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • 99p Stores Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Abercrombie & Fitch Co
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Adidas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Aldi Stores Ltd (UK & Ireland)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Alliance Boots UK Retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Amazon UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Amazon.co.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Amazon.com Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • AO World Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • AO.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Apple Retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Apple, Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Argos
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Aurum
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • B&M European Value Retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • B&Q (UK & Ireland)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Bhs Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Blacks Outdoor Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Boden UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Boohoo.com plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Burberry Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Burton old
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • C&J Clark Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Cath Kidston Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Clas Ohlson
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Clas Ohlson UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Debenhams UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Dreams Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Dune Footwear
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Dunelm (Soft Furnishings) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Dyson Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • East Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Fat Face Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Findel plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • French Connection (Retail)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Getting Personal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Goldsmiths Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • H&M Hennes & Mauritz
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Hema Netherlands
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • HMV Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Home Retail Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Homebase Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • House of Fraser Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Hugo Boss
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Iceland Foods Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • J. Choo Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Jacques Vert Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Jaeger Company's Shops Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Jane Norman Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • JD Sports - Fashion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • JD Sports - Sports
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • JD Sports Fashion plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • John Lewis Partnership
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • John Lewis Plc (department store)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Joules
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • JP Boden & Co Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Kantar Media
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Kingfisher Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Kitbag
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Kurt Geiger Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Lakeland Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Lidl (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Lion Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Mackays Stores Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Made.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Maplin Electronics Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Mappin & Webb Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Matalan Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • McArthurGlen UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Millets Farm Garden Centre Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Moss Bros Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Net-A-Porter Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • New Look (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • New Look Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Nike
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Nisa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Ocado
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Ocado Group plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Paperchase Products Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Pets at Home Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Poundland Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Poundstretcher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Poundworld Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • River Island Clothing Co Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • River Island Holdings Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Sainsbury's Local
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Screwfix UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • ScS Upholstery Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Selfridges Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Selfridges Retail Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Shop Direct Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Sports Direct Europe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Sports Direct Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Sports Direct UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Superdrug Stores Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • SuperGroup Plc (Retail)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Ted Baker
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Tesco (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • The Co-operative Food
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Thomas Pink
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Tommy Hilfiger Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Topps Tiles
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Topps Tiles Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Vision Express (UK) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Watch Stop
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Watches of Switzerland Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Waterstones Booksellers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Wiggle
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Wm Morrison Supermarkets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • WPP Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Yoox

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          UK Retail Briefing - October 2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          £295.00 (Excl.Tax)