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UK Retail Briefing - September 2011

  • What is the outlook for the retail market.
  • Sector focus – this month on DIY, furniture and carpet specialists
  • Analysis of September’s retail news.

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Table of contents

  1. Analyst Comment

    • Westfield, Stratford - Just another shopping Mall?
      • Design
        • John Lewis
          • The centre
            • What about the recession?
            • Headlines for the Month

              • Grocers
                • Food specialists
                  • Clothing retailers
                    • Footwear retailers
                      • Mixed goods retailers
                        • DIY retailers
                          • Electricals retailers
                            • Furniture retailers
                              • Home shopping
                                • Books and stationery
                                  • Music and video
                                  • Retail Sales – Background and Outlook

                                    • Key points
                                      • Retail sales trends
                                        • Figure 1: Retail sales trends, 2010-11
                                        • Figure 2: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, 2010-11
                                      • John Lewis
                                        • Figure 3: John Lewis: Year-on-year growth, 2010-11
                                      • Inflation and wages
                                        • Figure 4: RPI vs Average weekly earnings growth, 2008-11
                                      • Inflation remains uncomfortably high
                                        • Figure 5: Annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for selected product groups, 2010-11
                                      • Looking forward
                                      • Sector Focus – DIY, Furniture, and Carpet Specialists

                                          • Sector relatives
                                            • Figure 6: DIY, furniture and carpet specialists: sales as % of all retail sales, 2006-10
                                            • Figure 7: DIY, furniture and carpet specialists: sales as % of all retail sales, Q1 2010-Q2 2011
                                          • Retail sales data
                                            • Figure 8: DIY, furniture and carpet specialists: retail sales, 2006-11 (e)
                                            • Figure 9: DIY, furniture and carpet specialists: retail sales growth, Jan-Jul 2011
                                          • The market environment
                                            • Figure 10: Number of residential property transactions, Q1 2006-Q2 2011
                                            • Figure 11: Gross value of new mortgage approvals, Jan 2006-Jul 2011
                                          • Mintel’s tracker survey
                                            • Figure 12: Mintel Tracker Survey extracts: Agreement with statements, Sept 2010-Aug 2011
                                          • Consumer prices inflation
                                            • Figure 13: Annual average indices of retail prices for selected categories 2006-10
                                            • Figure 14: Inflation in selected categories, Sep 2010-Aug 2011
                                          • Consumer expenditure
                                            • Figure 15: Consumer expenditure on selected product categories, 2006-10
                                            • Figure 16: Growth in consumer spending on selected categories, Q1 2011
                                          • Leading retailers
                                            • Furniture specialists
                                              • Figure 17: Leading furniture specialists, 2010/11
                                            • Carpet retailers
                                                • Figure 18: Leading carpet specialists, 2010/11
                                              • DIY specialists
                                                  • Figure 19: Leading DIY retailers specialists, 2010/11
                                              • News Analysis

                                                • Grocers
                                                  • Asda
                                                    • …aims to open 250 smaller supermarkets
                                                      • …launches mobile groceries site
                                                        • …like-for-likes up 0.5% in second quarter
                                                          • Asda Income Tracker: Families £11 worse off
                                                            • Booths refinances for store expansion
                                                              • Co-op profits and sales hit by tough climate
                                                                • Morrisons
                                                                  • …appoints Credit Suisse as it considers Iceland bid
                                                                    • …leads big four in market share
                                                                      • …profits rise 8%
                                                                        • North East Convenience Stores sees 4.7% sales rise
                                                                          • Ocado launches 'shopping wall'
                                                                            • Sainsbury's
                                                                              • …to hire 15,000 Christmas staff
                                                                                • …trials branded price match in Northern Ireland
                                                                                  • Spar UK launches own label range
                                                                                    • Tesco
                                                                                      • …Amazon-style site to launch in January
                                                                                        • …opens virtual store in South Korea
                                                                                          • …revamps Direct to 'Amazon-style'
                                                                                            • …to sell Japan business
                                                                                              • The People's Supermarket plans second store
                                                                                                • Waitrose
                                                                                                  • …aims to boost sales with extended hours
                                                                                                    • …appoints executive chef
                                                                                                      • Food and drink specialists
                                                                                                        • Bargain Booze up for sale for £100m
                                                                                                          • Poundbakery aims to take on Greggs
                                                                                                            • Thorntons pre-tax profit falls after impairment charges
                                                                                                              • Clothing retailing
                                                                                                                • Primark considers 300 store openings in Europe
                                                                                                                  • Pull & Bear and Bershka to launch transactional sites
                                                                                                                    • Rugby Ralph Lauren opens first European store
                                                                                                                      • TJX Europe triples profits in second quarter
                                                                                                                        • Alexon Group
                                                                                                                          • …issues profit warning and sparks takeover talks
                                                                                                                            • …issues profit warning
                                                                                                                              • Arcadia makes redundancies in harsh trading conditions
                                                                                                                                • Aurora
                                                                                                                                  • …to launch Asos-style international Online strategy
                                                                                                                                    • …trials mobile payment in stores
                                                                                                                                      • Austin Reed to open new concept flagship in Regent Street
                                                                                                                                        • Coast trials new concept in revamped concessions
                                                                                                                                          • Cos to open two new stores in London
                                                                                                                                            • Christian Louboutin loses bid to protect signature shoes
                                                                                                                                              • Fat Face seeks international expansion
                                                                                                                                                • French Connection reports as expected first half results
                                                                                                                                                  • H&M brand Monki launches in UK
                                                                                                                                                    • Isabella Oliver sees record growth
                                                                                                                                                      • Jane Norman revamp
                                                                                                                                                        • La Senza looks to exit poor stores
                                                                                                                                                          • Matalan to create 2,300 Christmas jobs
                                                                                                                                                            • New Look
                                                                                                                                                              • …reviews property
                                                                                                                                                                • …to streamline its store portfolio after review
                                                                                                                                                                  • Peacock Group takes Bonmarché off the market
                                                                                                                                                                    • Reiss plans for future with click-and-collect
                                                                                                                                                                      • Rigby & Peller majority stake sold to Van de Velde
                                                                                                                                                                        • SuperGroup sales still rising
                                                                                                                                                                          • Tommy Hilfiger to open largest UK store
                                                                                                                                                                            • Van de Velde plans Rigby & Peller global growth
                                                                                                                                                                              • Victoria's Secret expands in UK
                                                                                                                                                                                • White Stuff pushes 'community' retail
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Footwear retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Clarks sets target of 100 per year overseas store openings
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Mixed goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Argos sales fall
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Ireland: 99p Stores to launch in Ireland with €uro 50
                                                                                                                                                                                            • 99p Stores secure £20m banking facility to double business
                                                                                                                                                                                              • H&T pawnbroker sees first half profits rise
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Poundworld's credit insurance pulled despite 500% profit rise
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Multi-sector retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • M&S launches second phase of sustainable cotton project
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Department stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Debenhams
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • …claims retail world-first with smartphone innovation
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • …major Indian expansion plans
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Harrods to launch online magazine and mobile site
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • John Lewis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • …plans to expand own-label menswear
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …sales rise despite rioters
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …to use Waitrose stores to double click-and-collect network
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Laura Ashley like-for-likes up 3.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Lewis Home Retail saves two more TJ Hughes stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Selfridges Manchester revamps its beauty hall as it ploughs £20m into store improvements
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • TJ Hughes closes another 12 stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • DIY retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Floors 2 Go collapses into administration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Homebase launches premium homewares brand
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Robert Dyas boss to 'get back to basics'
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Topps Tiles warns on profits
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Wilkinson profits hit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Electrical retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Best Buy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • …Enfield opening not delayed by riots
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • …UK launches m-commerce site
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Comet sale in doubts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Dixons like-for-likes fall 7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Jessops confident on back of full-year figures
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Furniture retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Crate & Barrel to start brand building for UK opening
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Life & Style bought out of administration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Lombok
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • …bought out of pre-pack administration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • …looking at administration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Oka profits up 24%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Walmsley Furnishing goes into administration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Home shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Amazon to launch order collection lockers in UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Ebay reports 25% rise in million pound businesses
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Findel reports rising sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Flying Brands reports loss
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Funky Pigeon trial store opens
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Ideal world to launch customer rewards programme
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Ocado
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • …to open new distribution centre in Oxford
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • …urged to halt second fulfilment centre plans
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • …launches 'shopping wall'
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Simply Be opens first physical store
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Book and stationery retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Clintons
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …hires Dixons' marketing man
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • …hoping to stagger September rent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Waterstone's to axe 3 for 2 offer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • WH Smith
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • …full year to be in line with expectations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • …launches £50m share buy-back programme
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Music and video games
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Game signs deal with Sony
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • HMV sales fall but retailer remains positive
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Sports and leisure goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • JD Sports closes on deal to rebrand Cecil Gee
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • JJB turnaround success to see directors rewarded
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Snow + Rock to open tri-brand superstore
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Sports Direct sees profits fall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Jewellery and accessories
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Aurum halts sale process until 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Claire's debuts new London concept store
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Goldsmiths to debut new concept store at Westfield Stratford
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Signet UK's second quarter profits fall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Garden centres
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Countrywide
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • …launches own-brand value offer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • …seeking acquisitions as sales rise
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Garden Centre Group acquires Country Homes and Gardens
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Economy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • BRC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • …footfall falls as vacancy is low
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • …retail sales steady in August despite riots
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • …urges business rate suspension for riot-hit retailers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Consumers more cash-strapped than ever
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Ecommerce growth slows
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Grocers fined for price fixing on dairy products
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Inflation rises to 4.4% in July
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • London and Japan agree luxury retail partnership
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • ONS: Flat retail growth in July
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Shop price inflation slows in August
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Westfield Stratford 95% leased

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              UK Retail Briefing - September 2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              US $391.67 (Excl.Tax)