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UK Retail Briefing - September 2015

This review looks at:

  • Retail sales by food retailers
  • The impact of inflation
  • Volume growth in food retailers' sales
  • Consumers changing attitudes towards shopping at food discounters.

We also include an Analyst's Comment on rationalisation in the c-store sector.

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Table of contents

  1. Analyst’s comment

    • Rationalisation in the C-store market
      • An underlying pattern?
        • Booker
          • It’s not just a question of buying power
          • Retail Sales – Background and Outlook

            • Key points
              • Retail sales trends
                • Figure 1: Retail sales trends, 2014/15
                • Figure 2: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC versus ONS, 2013-15
              • John Lewis
                • Figure 3: John Lewis – Year-on-year growth, 2014-15
              • Inflation and wages
                • Figure 4: The income squeeze - Wages growth versus inflation, 2009-15
              • Inflation
                • Figure 5: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2014-15
              • Looking forward
              • Sector Focus – Food Retailing

                  • Retail sales so far in 2015
                    • Figure 6: Annual percentage change in the value sales of food retailers, 2014-15
                  • Inflation: A downward trend
                    • Figure 7: Annual percentage change in the price of food and non-alcoholic beverages, 2014-15
                  • Volume growth
                    • Figure 8: Annual seasonally adjusted percentage change in the volume of goods sold in food stores, 2014-15
                  • So are the grocer’s initiatives having any effect on consumers?
                    • Figure 9: Attitudes to the statement ‘I shop at cheaper value retailers (eg Lidl, Aldi)’, Dec 2013- June 2015
                  • What it means
                  • Headlines for the Month

                    • Convenience stores
                      • Grocers
                        • Clothing retailers
                          • Department stores
                            • Multi-sector retailing
                              • Homeware and furniture retailing
                                • Home shopping
                                  • Jewellers
                                    • Economy
                                    • News Analysis – Food and Drink

                                      • Convenience stores
                                        • UK: Booker’s Londis and Budgens acquisition approved
                                          • UK: Budgens’ new format has been well-received
                                            • UK: Jet and Spar open dual branded store
                                              • UK: McColl’s announces refinancing package
                                                • UK: McColl's Q3 like-for-like sales down 2.3%
                                                  • UK: M Local stores to be rebranded to My Local following acquisition
                                                    • UK: One Stop extends pop-up refit solution to franchisees
                                                      • Grocers
                                                        • UK: Asda suffers 4.7% sales decline in Q2
                                                          • UK: Continued ‘sluggish growth’ in the UK grocery market
                                                            • UK: Costcutter slips into a £25m loss
                                                              • UK: Farming unions to meet following growing protests
                                                                • UK: Food sales decline for the first time this year
                                                                  • UK: Food sales return to growth in August
                                                                    • UK: Lidl trials ‘Smarter Shopping’ card in Scotland
                                                                      • UK: Morrisons announces an end to ‘unexpected item in the bagging area’
                                                                        • UK: Morrisons
                                                                          • …like-for-like sales down 2.4%
                                                                            • …expected to receive £30m for M Local
                                                                              • …Match and More advert cleared following complaints
                                                                                • …reportedly close to selling M Local
                                                                                  • UK: Sainsbury’s
                                                                                    • …guarantees staff more than the living wage
                                                                                      • …launches Brand Match online
                                                                                        • …Tu launches nationwide online
                                                                                          • UK: Supermarkets may have to state whether fresh food is from UK
                                                                                            • UK: Tesco
                                                                                              • …becomes first UK supermarket to stock vinyl
                                                                                                • …close to selling South Korean Homeplus business
                                                                                                  • …closes online wine club
                                                                                                    • …experiments with try-before-you-buy scheme
                                                                                                      • …sends head office staff into stores
                                                                                                        • UK: The Co-operative
                                                                                                          • …pilots local sourcing
                                                                                                            • …reports positive first half results
                                                                                                              • UK: Waitrose expands Pick Your Own Offers scheme
                                                                                                                • Other food and drink specialists
                                                                                                                  • UK: Bargain Booze steps up social media strategy
                                                                                                                    • UK: Conviviality Retail agrees reverse takeover of Matthew Clark
                                                                                                                      • UK: Naked Wines launches Text For Wine service
                                                                                                                        • UK: Nespresso to open Bluewater boutique
                                                                                                                        • News Analysis – Non-Food Retailing

                                                                                                                          • Clothing retailing
                                                                                                                            • UK: A Suit That Fits raises funding to fuel growth
                                                                                                                              • UK: Accessories retailer Lovisa prepares for UK launch
                                                                                                                                • UK: American Eagle prepares for UK online launch
                                                                                                                                  • UK: Barbour to be the first to sell through Twitter Collections
                                                                                                                                    • UK: Dr. Martens opens on Oxford Street
                                                                                                                                      • UK: Ecco expands UK high street presence
                                                                                                                                        • UK: FatFace sales rise 2.7%
                                                                                                                                          • UK: Hobbs sales stall as losses widen
                                                                                                                                            • UK: Jimmy Choo net revenues rise 6.5%
                                                                                                                                              • UK: Lipsy sales rise 10%
                                                                                                                                                • UK: Joules revenues rise 22%
                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Laura Ashley like-for-like sales rise 7%
                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Missguided to expand with lingerie, petite and tall ranges
                                                                                                                                                      • UK: New Look UK like-for-like sales up 4.1%
                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Oliver Bonas becomes first high street retailer to pay living wage
                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Primark full-year sales to rise 13%
                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Radley plots ambitious expansion
                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Sock Shop makes high street return
                                                                                                                                                                • Department stores
                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: BHS owner seeks further funding
                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Debenhams
                                                                                                                                                                      • …adds Giles Deacon to designers line-up
                                                                                                                                                                        • …launches campaign to drive full-price sales
                                                                                                                                                                          • …unveils latest designer collection
                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: John Lewis
                                                                                                                                                                              • …announces senior management changes
                                                                                                                                                                                • …eyes Ikea’s top spot in the homeware market
                                                                                                                                                                                  • …prepares to recruit 3,000 temporary staff
                                                                                                                                                                                    • …reports 'solid' first half
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Multi-sector retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Marks and Spencer
                                                                                                                                                                                          • …slows rate of international expansion
                                                                                                                                                                                            • …womenswear director exits
                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Next Brand sales up 3.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Poundland trials ecommerce site
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: The Original Factory Shop's profits surge as transformation is underway
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Electrical retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Carphone Warehouse suffers a cyber-attack
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Dixons Carphone revenues up 8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: GAME delivers positive first-half performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Homeware and furniture retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Bensons for Beds rolls out mattress-testing technology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Cath Kidston unveils ‘Bags to School’ campaign
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Dunelm revenues rise 12.6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Furniture Village profits surge
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Made.com unveils plans for first North West showroom
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Procook benefits from rising consumer confidence
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: ScS announces improved Q4 as CFO departs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: West Elm ramps up UK expansion with John Lewis concessions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Home shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Amazon signs for new warehouse
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: ASOS chief executive Nick Robertson stands down
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Gear4Music sales up 43% in the first half
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Moonpig owner on the verge of sale
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Zalando trials one-hour courier returns service
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Book and stationery retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Card Factory sales grow 8% in first half
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • UK: Paperchase eyes North American expansion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Waterstones to open Tottenham Court Road flagship
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: WH Smith performing ahead of expectations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Sports and leisure goods retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • UK: Halfords appoints managing director to Cycle Republic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Halfords suffers 1.3% sales decline in Q2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • UK: Sports Direct to host first Mega Value concession
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Sports Direct trading in line with expectations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Jewellers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Beaverbrooks returns to profit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: HandT Group's profits surge 30%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Signet UK drives growth in the second quarter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Toys and games retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • UK: Menkind acquires Red5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Pet retailing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • UK: Pet Supermarket's owner saved from administration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Economy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • UK: Airport retailers told to pass VAT savings on to customers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • UK: Retail sales increase 1.9% in July
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • UK: Shop prices deflate 1.4% in August

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Advertising Standards Authority
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Aldi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Amazon.co.uk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Amazon.com Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • American Eagle Outfitters Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Apple, Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • ASOS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Bargain Booze Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Beaverbrooks the Jewellers Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Bensons Bed Centres Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Bhs Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Booker Cash & Carry Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Borders Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Breitling Uk Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Budgens Stores Ltd - retail sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Cath Kidston Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Condé Nast Publications Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Costcutter Supermarkets Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Debenhams UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • ECCO
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Ernest Jones Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Evans Cycles UK Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Furniture Village Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Game Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Grazia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • H Samuel Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Hackett Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Halfords Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Harvey & Thompson Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Hobbs Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Hudson's Bay Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Hugo Boss
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • J. Choo Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Jo Malone
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • John Lewis Partnership
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • John Lewis Plc (department store)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Joules
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Laura Ashley Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Lidl (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Lipsy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Made.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Majestic Wine Warehouse Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Matthew Clark plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • McColl's (convenience stores)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Monarch Airlines
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Moonpig.com Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Moss Bros Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Naked Wines
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • New Look Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Next Directory
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Next Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Next Retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • One Stop
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Paperchase Products Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Poundland Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Premier
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Primark Stores Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • ProCook
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • R Barbour & Sons Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Radley
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Sainsbury's Local
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Samsung Electronics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Schuh Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Signet Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Sock Shop UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Spar UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Sports Direct Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Sports Direct UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Staples UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Target Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Tesco (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • The Carphone Warehouse Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • The Co-operative Food
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • The Gadget Shop Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • The White Company Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Waterstones Booksellers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • WH Smith PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • White Stuff Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Wm Morrison Supermarkets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Zalando

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    UK Retail Briefing - September 2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    US $382.00 (Excl.Tax)