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UK Short and City Breaks market report

“Travel brands can curate an annual portfolio of regular trips for an emerging tribe of multi-short breakers, offering a mixed programme of holiday types including R&R, hedonistic, activity/adventure and special interest, and a variety of destinations in the UK and abroad.”
– John Worthington, Senior Analyst

This Report discusses the following key topics:

  • Targeting spontaneous bookers
  • Niche package opportunities
  • Greener city breaks for older travellers
  • Cutbacks, budget breaks and spirit of lagom

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Scope of the Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Total short break volume trends upwards in 2015 and 2016
              • Figure 1: Total short break market volume forecast, 2011-21^
            • Domestic short breaks bounce back
              • Figure 2: Domestic short break market volume forecast, 2011-21^
            • Overseas short breaks grow but face uncertainty
              • Figure 3: Overseas short break market volume forecast, 2011-21^
            • The consumer
              • Nearly a third of consumers have taken a short break overseas
                • Figure 4: Short break destinations visited in the past 12 months, May 2016
              • City breaks dominate the short break market
                • Figure 5: Types of short break taken in the past 12 months, May 2016
              • Solo travel for singles in the winter months
                • Figure 6: Attitudes towards short breaks, May 2016
              • What we think
              • Issues and Insights

                • Brexit result likely to curb outbound travel but opportunities still exist
                  • The facts
                    • The implications
                      • Solo travel for singles in the winter months
                        • The facts
                          • The implications
                          • The Market – What You Need to Know

                            • The short break market grew in 2015
                              • Domestic growth after two consecutive years of decline
                                • Overseas short break market grew in 2015 but uncertainty lies ahead
                                  • How will leaving the EU affect travel?
                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                    • Short breaks grew in 2015
                                      • Figure 7: Total short breaks (1-3 nights) taken by UK residents, by volume and value, 2011-21
                                      • Figure 8: Total short break market volume forecast, 2011-21^
                                      • Figure 9: Total short break market value forecast, 2011-21^
                                    • Domestic short breaks bounce back
                                        • Figure 10: Domestic short breaks taken by UK residents, 2011-21^
                                        • Figure 11: Domestic short break market volume forecast, 2011-21^
                                        • Figure 12: Domestic short break market value forecast, 2011-21^
                                      • Overseas short breaks continued to grow but now face uncertainty
                                        • Figure 13: Overseas short breaks taken by UK residents, 2011-21
                                        • Figure 14: Overseas short break market volume forecast, 2011-21^
                                        • Figure 15: Overseas short break market value forecast, 2011-21^
                                    • Segment Performance

                                      • Brexit makes Eastern European countries more attractive
                                        • Figure 16: Top 10 countries for short breaks, 2014 versus 2015
                                      • Opportunities for travel agents to offer staggered payment options
                                        • Figure 17: Overseas short breaks taken by UK residents, independent versus non-independent, 2011-15
                                      • Air travel increases its short break market share
                                        • Figure 18: Overseas short breaks taken by UK residents, by transport method, 2011-15
                                      • New routes planned for Eurostar after a poor start to 2016
                                      • Market Drivers

                                        • Uncertainty in the wake of Brexit
                                          • The value of the Pound plummets following Brexit result
                                            • Figure 19: Value of £1 GBP versus the euro and US Dollar, 18-27 June 2016
                                          • Weak Pound could make Eastern European destinations more attractive
                                            • Figure 20: Pound versus selected currencies, 18-27 June 2016
                                            • Figure 21: Post Office City Cost Barometer 2016
                                          • Growth in rail prices smallest since 2010
                                            • Figure 22: UK rail fares index, 2004-16
                                            • Figure 23: UK rail fares index, 2004-16
                                          • Weak Pound makes oil more expensive
                                            • Figure 24: Europe Brent Sort Price FOB (Dollars per barrel), 27 June 2013-27 June 2016
                                          • Decision delayed for expanding Heathrow
                                          • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                            • New start-up Overnight allows consumers to book spontaneously
                                              • Tripsuit can help travellers meet their short break needs
                                                • 99trips; offering customisable packaged deals for short breaks
                                                  • Hopper predicts fares and notifies travellers of price drops
                                                    • Live chat messaging apps can help deliver attractive deals
                                                    • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                      • Proportion of consumers taking short breaks abroad has grown over the last two years
                                                        • Uncertainty ahead following the Brexit result
                                                          • Rural short breaks tend to be more popular with those already living in rural areas
                                                            • Half of consumers view short breaks as an ideal time for solo travel
                                                            • Short Breaks Taken

                                                              • Nearly a third have taken a short break overseas
                                                                • France to receive a boost with Euro 2016
                                                                  • Figure 25: Short break destinations visited in the past 12 months, May 2016
                                                                • One in five consumers are high-frequency short breakers
                                                                  • Figure 26: Repertoire of countries visited for a short break, May 2016
                                                              • Short Break Destination Interests

                                                                • Half of consumers interested in a short break in Ireland
                                                                  • Figure 27: Short break destination interests, May 2016
                                                                • A return to staycations?
                                                                  • Strong interest in Germany but new Airbnb rules could dampen appeal
                                                                    • Potential boost for the Netherlands with a new Eurostar route
                                                                      • Potential to increase short ski breaks
                                                                        • Countries not interested in visiting for a short break
                                                                          • Figure 28: Countries not interested in visiting for a short break, May 2016
                                                                      • Reasons For Not Taking Short Breaks

                                                                        • One in three opt to go on a long break instead of a short break
                                                                          • Figure 29: Long breaks taken by those who haven't been on a short break in the last 12 months, May 2016
                                                                        • Reasons for not going on a short break
                                                                          • Figure 30: Reasons for not going on a short break, May 2016
                                                                      • Short Break Types

                                                                        • City breaks dominate the short break market
                                                                          • Figure 31: Types of short break taken in the past 12 months, May 2016
                                                                        • Destinations and holiday types
                                                                          • France has potential for short family breaks
                                                                            • South Eastern and Welsh residents keen on short beach breaks
                                                                              • Combining different types of holiday into one short break
                                                                                • Figure 32: Future interest in types of short breaks, May 2016
                                                                            • Booking Habits of Short Breakers

                                                                              • Devices used for booking
                                                                                • Smartphones and beacons could help boost short breaks
                                                                                    • Figure 33: Device used to book most recent holiday, by length and destination of holidays taken in the last 12 months, April 2016
                                                                                • When Short Breaks are Booked

                                                                                  • Booking lead times for short breaks are quick
                                                                                    • Figure 34: Booking lead time, by length and destination of holidays taken in the last 12 months, April 2016
                                                                                  • Midweek breaks for seniors can make their money go further
                                                                                    • Figure 35: Day of the week short breaks are taken, May 2016
                                                                                    • Figure 36: Length of last short break, May 2016
                                                                                • Attitudes towards Short Breaks

                                                                                  • Short breaks in the low seasons to beat the winter blues
                                                                                    • Solo travel for singles in the winter months
                                                                                      • Promoting short breaks in the UK to mature women
                                                                                        • Highlighting value offered by UK breaks
                                                                                            • Figure 37: Attitudes towards short breaks, May 2016
                                                                                            • Figure 38: Attitudes towards short breaks, May 2016
                                                                                        • CHAID Analysis – Short and City Breaks

                                                                                          • Methodology
                                                                                            • Promoting solo short activity breaks to beat the winter blues
                                                                                              • Figure 39: Target groups based on attitudes towards short breaks – CHAID – Tree output, May 2016
                                                                                              • Figure 40: Target groups based on attitudes towards short breaks – CHAID – Table output, May 2016
                                                                                          • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations, and Supporting Information

                                                                                              • Abbreviations
                                                                                                • Definitions
                                                                                                  • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                      • Figure 41: Best- and worst-case forecast for total short break holiday volume, 2016-21
                                                                                                      • Figure 42: Best- and worst-case forecast for total short break holiday value, 2016-21
                                                                                                      • Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecast for domestic short break holiday volume, 2016-21
                                                                                                      • Figure 44: Best- and worst-case forecast for domestic short break holiday value, 2016-21
                                                                                                      • Figure 45: Best- and worst-case forecast for overseas short break holiday volume, 2016-21
                                                                                                      • Figure 46: Best- and worst-case forecast for overseas short break holiday value, 2016-21