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UK unprocessed Poultry and Red Meat market report

"With cost rises looming on the horizon, there is a pressing need for retailers to move their communication beyond price. Highlighting their credentials in terms of farmer relations or responsible antibiotic use offers a promising means for companies to distinguish their offering from rivals' given the strong consumer interest."
- Alice Baker, Research Analyst

This report will cover the following areas:

  • Â Â Â Farmers' pay guarantees offer a promising means to appeal to shoppers
  • Â Â Â Cooking guidance should help to expand buyers' limited repertoires
  • Â Â Â Offering reassurance on antibiotics can boost companies' standing

This Report examines UK retail sales of poultry, red meat and game.

Unprocessed poultry and red meat is defined as comprising retail sales of chilled and frozen cuts of chicken, turkey, duck, goose in whole bird or portion format, and chilled and frozen cuts of beef, pork and lamb (including mutton) such as roasts, steaks and chops, for in-home consumption. It also includes game meat including pheasant, venison, guinea fowl, grouse, partridge, wood pigeon, wild duck, wild boar, rabbit and hare.

It also includes minced, diced and stewing meats, as well as offal products such as liver, and red meat, poultry or game meat which has been marinated or glazed with a sauce.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Falling prices bring down market value 2014-16
              • Inflation and income trends to affect the market 2016-21
                • Figure 1: UK retail value sales of unprocessed meat, poultry and game, 2011-21
              • Diverse factors govern segment performance
                • Figure 2: Growth in UK retail value sales of unprocessed meat, poultry and game, by segment, 2011-16 and 2011-21
              • Mixed fortunes for red meat in 2016
                • Poultry remains in volume growth and game continues strong growth from a low base
                  • ‘Flexitarian’ trend opens possibilities for other proteins
                    • Health concerns affect red meat
                      • Companies and brands
                        • Retailers build up their premium ranges
                          • Waitrose launches Omega 3 enriched chicken, Tesco promotes twin-packs
                            • Supermarkets dominate advertising
                              • Discount supermarkets focus on provenance and ethics
                                • Morrisons highlights in-store preparation and appeals to emotions
                                  • The consumer
                                    • Chicken’s lower price allows it more frequent usage than beef
                                      • Figure 3: Usage frequency for unprocessed meat, poultry and game, by type, August 2016
                                    • Beef no longer the principal choice for weekend meals
                                      • A price-driven market, encouraged by supermarket tactics
                                        • Figure 4: Meat, poultry and game buying factors, August 2016
                                      • Scope to move the discussion beyond price among a significant minority
                                        • Cooking guidance should help to expand buyers’ limited repertoires
                                          • Future direction of the economy crucial for future sales
                                            • Figure 5: Meat, poultry and game eating and buying behaviours, August 2016
                                          • Farmers’ pay guarantees offer a promising means to appeal to shoppers
                                            • Figure 6: Attitudes towards meat, poultry and game, August 2016
                                          • Reassurance on antibiotics could help companies to bolster their reputation with consumers
                                            • What we think
                                            • Issues and Insights

                                              • Farmers’ pay guarantees offer a promising means to appeal to shoppers
                                                • The facts
                                                  • The implications
                                                    • Cooking guidance should help to expand buyers’ limited repertoires
                                                      • The facts
                                                        • The implications
                                                          • Offering reassurance on antibiotics can boost companies’ standing
                                                            • The facts
                                                              • The implications
                                                              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                                • Falling prices bring down market value 2014-16
                                                                  • Inflation and income trends to affect the market 2016-21
                                                                    • Diverse factors govern segment performance
                                                                      • Mixed fortunes for red meat in 2016
                                                                        • Poultry remains in volume growth and game continues strong growth from a low base
                                                                          • ‘Flexitarian’ trend opens possibilities for other proteins
                                                                            • Health concerns affect red meat
                                                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                              • Falling prices push down overall market value 2014-16
                                                                                • Imported inflation to push up overall market value 2016-21
                                                                                  • Figure 7: UK retail value sales of unprocessed meat, poultry and game, 2011-21
                                                                                  • Figure 8: UK retail value sales of unprocessed meat, poultry and game, by segment, 2011-21
                                                                                • Forecast methodology
                                                                                  • The impact of the EU referendum vote
                                                                                    • Figure 9: Alternative scenarios for the unprocessed meat, poultry and game market, 2016-21
                                                                                    • Figure 10: Alternative scenarios for the unprocessed meat, poultry and game market, at current prices, 2016-21
                                                                                  • Potential for inflation to prompt cutbacks or switching
                                                                                  • Market Segmentation

                                                                                    • Beef
                                                                                      • Lower prices weaken beef values 2014-16
                                                                                        • Volume sales grow slightly in 2016 despite WHO report
                                                                                          • Health and environmental concerns to continue to affect beef 2016-21
                                                                                            • Pork
                                                                                              • Pork segment continues to struggle in 2016
                                                                                                • High reliance on imports to drive pork price inflation 2016-21
                                                                                                  • Lamb
                                                                                                    • Reduced supply causes lamb prices to edge up in 2016
                                                                                                      • Lamb’s higher price leaves it vulnerable to any squeeze on incomes
                                                                                                        • Poultry
                                                                                                          • Poultry sales remain in growth as shoppers retain savvy spending habits
                                                                                                            • Poultry’s low price should help volume and value sales growth 2016-21
                                                                                                              • Game
                                                                                                                • Increased distribution helps game to grow 2011-16
                                                                                                                  • Game expected to see further growth 2016-21, but this will slow
                                                                                                                    • Offal
                                                                                                                      • Lack of consumer interest hinders offal
                                                                                                                        • Offal values to be pushed up by inflation despite static volume sales
                                                                                                                        • Market Drivers

                                                                                                                          • Weak wholesale meat and poultry prices pull down retail prices
                                                                                                                            • Supermarkets step up their price war
                                                                                                                              • Weakened pound could lead to price inflation
                                                                                                                                • Brexit vote raises multiple uncertainties
                                                                                                                                  • Economic slowdown could lead to cutbacks or switching
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 11: Retail price index for meat and poultry, by segment, and comparison with total food, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                  • Many complex issues to resolve
                                                                                                                                    • ‘Flexitarian’ trend has implications for volume sales
                                                                                                                                      • UN panel advocates tax on meat to preserve environment
                                                                                                                                        • Health concerns affect red meat
                                                                                                                                          • Antibiotic use comes under closer government scrutiny
                                                                                                                                          • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                            • Retailers build up their premium ranges
                                                                                                                                              • Waitrose launches Omega 3 enriched chicken, Tesco promotes twin-packs
                                                                                                                                                • Supermarkets dominate advertising
                                                                                                                                                  • Discount supermarkets focus on provenance and ethics
                                                                                                                                                    • Morrisons highlights in-store preparation and appeals to emotions
                                                                                                                                                    • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                                      • Further growth in roast-in-the-bag chickens
                                                                                                                                                        • Appealing to the ethically-conscious through animal welfare claims
                                                                                                                                                          • Opportunity for roast-in-the-bag game birds
                                                                                                                                                            • Supermarkets build up their premium ranges
                                                                                                                                                              • Discounters look to exotic and unusual meats
                                                                                                                                                                • Exploring provenance through reference to animal breeds
                                                                                                                                                                  • Rise in low-fat claims
                                                                                                                                                                    • Waitrose looks to tap into interest in Omega 3 with enriched chicken
                                                                                                                                                                      • Tesco introduces Farm brands
                                                                                                                                                                        • Tesco promotes chicken twin-packs as cutting down on food waste
                                                                                                                                                                        • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                                                          • Supermarkets dominate advertising
                                                                                                                                                                            • Discount supermarkets put the focus on provenance
                                                                                                                                                                              • Aldi uses humour to underline its ethical sourcing
                                                                                                                                                                                • Lidl focuses on farms
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 12: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on red meat, poultry and game, by top advertisers, 2012-16*
                                                                                                                                                                                • Morrisons highlights its in-store meat preparation
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Building emotional associations around meat through reference to family meals
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Trade bodies look to attract younger consumers to lamb
                                                                                                                                                                                      • AHDB reprises mini roast campaign
                                                                                                                                                                                        • AHDB and HCC push family farms angle to encourage buying British
                                                                                                                                                                                          • AHDB prompts Britons to support lamb farmers
                                                                                                                                                                                            • HCC looks to push awareness of Welsh pork producers
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                                                                                              • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Chicken’s lower price allows it more frequent usage than beef
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Beef no longer the principal choice for weekend meals
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • A price-driven market, encouraged by supermarket tactics
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Scope to move the discussion beyond price among a significant minority
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Cooking guidance should help to expand buyers’ limited repertoires
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Future direction of the economy crucial for future sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Farmers’ pay guarantees offer a promising means to appeal to shoppers
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Reassurance on antibiotics could help companies to bolster their reputation with consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Usage of Unprocessed Meat, Poultry and Game

                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Usage of meat, poultry and game higher among men than women
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Chicken is the most regularly eaten type
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 13: Usage of unprocessed meat, poultry and game, by type, August 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Beef is the second most eaten meat, but lags far behind chicken on frequency
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 14: Usage frequency for unprocessed meat, poultry and game, by type, August 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Over-55s are the most likely to eat lamb
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Game attracts a young urban customer base
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Game should benefit from the expansion in processed products
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Turkey and duck face a number of usage barriers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Usage Occasions for Selected Types of Meat, Poultry and Game

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Beef no longer the first choice for Sunday lunch
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 15: Usage occasions for selected types of meat, poultry and game, August 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Pork chosen for everyday meals but not for special occasions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • One third would cook lamb for a weekday meal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Unprocessed meat loses out to processed for outdoor meals
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Meat, Poultry and Game Buying Factors

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Consumers’ price focus encouraged by retailer tactics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Scope to move the discussion away from price among a large minority
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 16: Meat, poultry and game buying factors, August 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Focus on familiar meats limits buying repertoires
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Cooking advice could help to boost sales of less familiar meat cuts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Further work needed to persuade consumers on value of animal breeds and diets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Meat, Poultry and Game Eating and Buying Behaviours

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Future direction of the economy crucial for meat sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 17: Meat, poultry and game eating and buying behaviours, August 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Flexitarian trend creates opportunities for other protein sources
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Poultry and game could benefit from health concerns around red meat
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Attitudes towards Meat, Poultry and Game

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Additional incentive needed to prompt buyers to act on their trust in British safety and welfare standards
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 18: Attitudes towards meat, poultry and game, August 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Ethical claims could be a differentiator
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Interest in farmers’ pay guarantees should be a boost to small family farms
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Opportunities for further expansion in charity tie-ups
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Need to make charity connections more tangible
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Unnecessary antibiotic use of concern to many
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • ‘No antibiotic’ labels likely to resonate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 19: UK retail value sales of unprocessed meat, poultry and game, with annual change, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 20: UK retail value sales of unprocessed beef, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 21: UK retail value sales of unprocessed beef, with annual change, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 22: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of unprocessed beef, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 23: UK retail value sales of unprocessed pork, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 24: UK retail value sales of unprocessed pork, with annual change, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 25: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of unprocessed pork, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 26: UK retail value sales of unprocessed lamb, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 27: UK retail value sales of unprocessed lamb, with annual change, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 28: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of unprocessed lamb, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 29: UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 30: UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry, with annual change, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 31: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of unprocessed poultry, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 32: UK retail value sales of unprocessed game, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 33: UK retail value sales of unprocessed game, with annual change, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 34: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of unprocessed game, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 35: UK retail value sales of offal, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 36: UK retail value sales of offal, with annual change, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 37: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of offal, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Forecast Methodology

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Companies Covered

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