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Unprocessed Poultry and Red Meat - UK - November 2017

“The income squeeze heralds a return to savvy shopping habits and cost-saving swaps among consumers. Price competition is likely to ramp up, reinforcing the place of strategic price promotions. Flagging up cheaper options and swaps remain key ways for grocers to help consumers manage their finances and keep them in the meat category while budgets are tight.”

– Anita Winther, Research Analyst

This report examines the following issues:

  • Cushioning the impact of an income squeeze on meat purchasing
  • Consumer trust could give British meat an edge over imported post-Brexit

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Falling prices dampen market performance
              • Inflation to support value growth
                • Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry and meat and game, 2012-22
              • Beef remains popular
                • Pork held back by weak image
                  • High price makes lamb vulnerable
                    • Poultry is expected to be the winner
                      • Weakened Pound and inflation put squeeze on household incomes
                        • Slow Brexit negotiations foster uncertainty
                          • Access to seasonal labour remains a burning question
                            • Meat reduction remains on-trend
                              • Progress made on campylobacter levels and antibiotics use
                                • Companies and brands
                                  • Co-op and Morrisons step up their commitment to UK meat sourcing
                                    • Retailers grow their own-label easy-to-cook ranges
                                      • Asda revives Farm Stores brand; M&S launches meat boxes
                                        • Co-op and Morrisons highlight British sourcing commitment
                                          • Lidl features farm visits in Christmas ad campaign
                                            • AHDB spotlights “midweek” loin medallions
                                              • The consumer
                                                • Meat eating remains ingrained
                                                  • Figure 2: Frequency of eating types of unprocessed poultry, meat and game, August 2017
                                                • 25-34-year-olds have the widest meat repertoires
                                                  • Meat consumption increases with income
                                                    • Chicken most versatile in cooking methods
                                                      • Encouraging recipe swaps could support wider pork and lamb usage
                                                        • Figure 3: Cooking methods used for beef, pork, lamb and chicken, by type of meat, August 2017
                                                      • Income squeeze will affect most people’s meat purchasing
                                                        • Savvy shopping is likely to be widespread
                                                          • Figure 4: Expected reactions to an income squeeze for unprocessed poultry, meat and game purchasing, August 2017
                                                        • Brexit could give UK produce the edge despite limited origin scrutiny
                                                          • Figure 5: Behaviours relating to unprocessed poultry, meat and game, August 2017
                                                        • Trust can be won by improved traceability
                                                          • Figure 6: Attitudes towards unprocessed poultry, meat and game, August 2017
                                                        • Chicken’s popularity built on strong positive associations
                                                          • Beef and pork need to push the convenience factor
                                                            • Figure 7: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with types of unprocessed poultry, meat and game, August 2017
                                                          • What we think
                                                          • Issues and Insights

                                                            • Cushioning the impact of an income squeeze on meat purchasing
                                                              • The facts
                                                                • The implications
                                                                  • Consumer trust could give British meat an edge over imported post-Brexit
                                                                    • The facts
                                                                      • The implications
                                                                      • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                                        • Falling prices dampen market performance
                                                                          • Inflation to support value growth
                                                                            • Beef remains popular
                                                                              • Pork held back by weak image
                                                                                • High price makes lamb vulnerable
                                                                                  • Poultry is expected to be the winner
                                                                                    • Weakened Pound and inflation put squeeze on household incomes
                                                                                      • Slow Brexit negotiations foster uncertainty
                                                                                        • Access to seasonal labour remains a burning question
                                                                                          • Meat reduction remains on-trend
                                                                                            • Progress made on campylobacter levels and antibiotics use
                                                                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                              • Market values hit by falling prices
                                                                                                • Figure 8: UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry and meat and game, 2012-22
                                                                                              • Inflation to support value growth
                                                                                                • Figure 9: Forecast of UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry and meat and game, 2012-22
                                                                                              • Forecast methodology
                                                                                              • Market Segmentation

                                                                                                • Rising wholesale prices see beef value growth return
                                                                                                  • Inflation should buoy beef value sales
                                                                                                    • Figure 10: UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry and meat and game, by segment, 2012-22
                                                                                                  • Tight supplies slow pork value declines
                                                                                                    • Further value declines expected for pork values
                                                                                                      • Lamb values fall as it struggles to appeal to weekday meal occasions
                                                                                                        • Squeezed incomes leave lamb vulnerable
                                                                                                          • Poultry boosted by chicken’s versatility
                                                                                                            • Strong value image should underpin poultry growth
                                                                                                              • Increased availability boosts sales of game
                                                                                                                • Growth expected to slow for game
                                                                                                                • Market Drivers

                                                                                                                  • Weakened Pound and inflation put squeeze on household incomes
                                                                                                                    • Weakened Pound has provided some benefit to producers
                                                                                                                      • Slow Brexit negotiations foster uncertainty
                                                                                                                        • Trade deals slow to progress
                                                                                                                          • Access to labour remains a burning question
                                                                                                                            • Meat reduction remains on-trend
                                                                                                                              • Figure 11: Consumers’ meat eating habits, March 2017
                                                                                                                            • Health is an important driver for cutting back on meat
                                                                                                                              • Ethical concerns are on people’s radar
                                                                                                                                • Plant proteins seen in a positive light
                                                                                                                                  • Progress made on campylobacter levels…
                                                                                                                                    • …while steps are being taken to address antibiotics use
                                                                                                                                      • Undercover investigation reveals food safety breaches at 2 Sisters plant
                                                                                                                                        • Retailers face questions over exclusivity
                                                                                                                                        • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                          • Co-op and Morrisons step up their commitment to UK meat sourcing
                                                                                                                                            • Retailers grow their own-label easy-to-cook ranges
                                                                                                                                              • Asda revives Farm Stores brand; M&S launches meat boxes
                                                                                                                                                • Co-op and Morrisons highlight British sourcing commitment
                                                                                                                                                  • Lidl features farm visits in Christmas ad campaign
                                                                                                                                                    • AHDB spotlights “midweek” loin medallions
                                                                                                                                                    • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                                      • Retailers step up their commitment to UK meat sourcing
                                                                                                                                                        • Co-op extends British pledge
                                                                                                                                                          • Morrisons commits to British meat in fresh
                                                                                                                                                            • Own-label easy-to-cook ranges grow
                                                                                                                                                              • Cook-in-the-bag chicken continues to attract launches…
                                                                                                                                                                • …while cooking time is cut with slow-cooked and sous vide
                                                                                                                                                                  • Asda revives Farm Stores brand
                                                                                                                                                                    • M&S raises the steaks with meat boxes
                                                                                                                                                                      • Tesco and Waitrose trial recipe boxes
                                                                                                                                                                        • Sainsbury’s taps Silicon Valley gold leaf trend
                                                                                                                                                                          • Asda and Waitrose add a sparkle to meat with Prosecco
                                                                                                                                                                          • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                                                            • The Co-op and Morrisons emphasise British sourcing commitment
                                                                                                                                                                              • Supermarkets continue to spotlight British farmers
                                                                                                                                                                                • Lidl features farm visits in ad campaign
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Co-op posts “Meet the Producer” series
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Morrisons and Lidl support farming industry initiatives
                                                                                                                                                                                      • AHDB shifts pork marketing to “midweek” loin medallions
                                                                                                                                                                                        • QMS urges consumers to “Do More with Pork”
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Industry gets behind annual campaigns
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Love Lamb Week
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Red Tractor Week
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Goatober
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Asda highlights roast-in-bag chicken for hassle-free meals
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Sainsbury’s and AHDB launch summer barbecue campaigns
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Booths aims to “Revive the Roast”
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Meat eating remains ingrained
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • 25-34-year-olds have the widest meat repertoires
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Meat consumption increases with income
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Chicken most versatile in cooking methods
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Encouraging recipe swaps could support wider pork and lamb usage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Income squeeze will affect most people’s meat purchasing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Savvy shopping is likely to be widespread
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Brexit could give UK produce the edge despite limited origin scrutiny
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Trust can be won by improved traceability
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Chicken’s popularity built on strong positive associations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Beef and pork need to push the convenience factor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Usage of Unprocessed Poultry, Meat and Game

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Meat eating remains ingrained
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Chicken is eaten nearly universally
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 12: Frequency of eating types of unprocessed poultry, meat and game, August 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • 25-34-year-olds have the widest meat repertoires
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 13: Repertoire of type of unprocessed poultry, meat and game eaten, by age, August 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Meat consumption increases with income
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 14: Eating of unprocessed poultry, meat and game once a week or more, by gross annual household income, August 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Cooking Methods for Beef, Pork, Lamb and Chicken

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Chicken enjoys versatility in cooking
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 15: Repertoire of cooking methods used for beef, pork, lamb and chicken, August 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Beef has a lead in stewing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 16: Cooking methods used for beef, pork, lamb and chicken, by type of meat, August 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Encouraging recipe swaps could support wider pork and lamb usage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Age divide in cooking methods
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Expected Reactions to an Income Squeeze

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Most people would change their meat purchasing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Most would look to savvy shopping for savings
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 17: Expected reactions to an income squeeze for unprocessed poultry, meat and game purchasing, August 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • One in three would buy less meat…
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • …but there are opportunities to switch people to cheaper options
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Behaviours and Attitudes towards Unprocessed Poultry, Meat and Game

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • The Sunday roast remains on people’s menu
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 18: Behaviours relating to unprocessed poultry, meat and game, August 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Brexit could give UK produce the edge despite limited origin scrutiny
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Trust can be won by improved traceability
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Soil Association teams with Provenance for blockchain trial
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Minor steps should pay dividends
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 19: Attitudes towards unprocessed poultry, meat and game, August 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Half consider sustainability, yet awareness is low
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Qualities Associated with Types of Unprocessed Poultry, Meat and Game

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Chicken’s popularity built on strong positive associations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 20: Qualities associated with types of unprocessed poultry, meat and game, August 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Correspondence analysis reveals the key qualities for meat types
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 21: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with types of unprocessed poultry, meat and game, August 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Beef and pork are strong on flavour, but need to push the convenience factor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Struggling lamb has the lead for special occasions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Improving game’s weak image
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Correspondence analysis methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 22: Total UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry and meat and game, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Segmentation

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Beef
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 23: UK retail value sales of unprocessed beef, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 24: Forecast of UK retail value sales of unprocessed beef, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 25: Total UK retail value sales of unprocessed beef, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Pork
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 26: UK retail value sales of unprocessed pork, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 27: Forecast of UK retail value sales of unprocessed pork, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 28: Total UK retail value sales of unprocessed pork, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Lamb
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 29: UK retail value sales of unprocessed lamb, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 30: Forecast of UK retail value sales of unprocessed lamb, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 31: Total UK retail value sales of unprocessed lamb, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Poultry
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 32: UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 33: Forecast of UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 34: Total UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Game
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 35: UK retail value sales of game, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 36: Forecast of UK retail value sales of game, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Total UK retail value sales of game, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Offal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 38: UK retail value sales of offal, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Forecast of UK retail value sales of offal, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 40: Total UK retail value sales of offal, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Unprocessed Poultry and Red Meat - UK - November 2017

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