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US Non-dairy Milk market report

"Non-dairy milk has seen growth in 2017 and is expected to continue this trend through 2022. Largely influenced by almond milk, innovative plant bases are adding variety in flavor and nutritional value to the category, both drivers of non-dairy milk. The majority of non-dairy milk consumers indicate increased purchase compared to last year, suggesting an opportunity to further expand current purchase in addition to recruiting new consumers to the category. Millennial interest in adding plant-based foods to their diet for health reasons is a large driver of consumption, although not necessarily deterring them from consuming dairy as well."
- Megan Hambleton, Beverage Analyst

This Report looks at the following areas:

  • Only half of US adults purchase non-dairy milk
  • Non-dairy struggles to garner health halo 
  • Non-dairy milk pegged to few uses
  • Parents turn to dairy for kids
  • Sweetened non-dairy milk seen as tastier, still not a strength

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Only half of US adults purchase non-dairy milk
            • Figure 1: Non-dairy milk purchase, July 2017
          • Non-dairy struggles to garner health halo
            • Figure 2: Health perceptions, July 2017
          • Non-dairy milk pegged to few uses
            • Figure 3: Milk use occasions, any non-dairy milk, July 2017
          • Parents turn to dairy for kids
            • Figure 4: Household consumption of any dairy and any non-dairy milk, July 2017
          • Sweetened non-dairy milk seen as tastier, still not a strength
            • Figure 5: Attribute associations, unsweetened and sweetened non-dairy milk, July 2017
          • The opportunities
            • Room for category growth
              • Figure 6: Household consumption of any non-dairy milk, July 2017
            • Innovative plant bases can expand existing non-dairy milk repertoires
              • Figure 7: Shifts in consumption of any non-dairy milk, by non-dairy milk types purchased, July 2017
            • Men can help establish broader uses
              • Figure 8: Milk use occasions, by gender, July 2017
            • Non-dairy milk consumers willing to pay for favorite brand
              • Figure 9: Attitudes toward milk, by any dairy and non-dairy milk purchase, July 2017
            • Highlight alternative qualities for incremental reach
              • Figure 10: Purchase incentives, by any dairy and non-dairy milk purchase, July 2017
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Non-dairy milk category to see strong growth through 2022
                • Almond milk is a steadfast category leader
                  • Innovation drives growth
                    • Soy milk sees another year in decline
                      • Labeling dispute causes controversy
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • Continued category growth over the next five years
                          • Figure 11: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2012-22
                          • Figure 12: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2012-22
                          • Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                      • Market Breakdown

                        • Almond milk leads non-dairy milk category
                          • Soy milk continues to fall behind
                            • Coconut milk expected to maintain momentum
                              • Other non-dairy milk types spark excitement in the category
                                • Figure 14: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, market share by segment, at current prices, 2017
                                • Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
                              • Other channels chip away at supermarkets
                                • Figure 16: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2012-17
                              • Natural channel sees category growth
                                • Figure 17: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 5/24/15 and 5/21/17
                            • Market Perspective

                              • Non-dairy labeling dispute causes controversy
                                • Dairy milk reach remains extensive despite declines in consumption
                                  • Figure 18: Dairy milk consumption, January 2016
                                • Beverage competition heats up
                                  • Consumers move to perimeter of the store
                                    • Figure 19: Food shopping behaviors, April 2017
                                • Market Factors

                                  • Lactose intolerance increases incidence among multicultural populations
                                    • Conflicting food studies cause confusion
                                      • Consumers dabble in plant-based nutrition
                                        • Millennials become parents
                                          • Figure 20: Households with own children under age 18, by age of householder, 2016
                                      • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                        • Silk leads category, others close in
                                          • Almond continues to propel category
                                            • Refrigerated non-dairy trumps shelf-stable
                                              • Soy and rice milks plummet
                                                • Flavor and ingredient innovation spark growth
                                                • Company and Brand Sales of Non-dairy Milk

                                                  • Whitewave and Blue Diamond dominate all segments
                                                    • Figure 21: Sales of non-dairy milk, by company, 2016 and 2017
                                                  • Almond Breeze becomes largest almond milk brand
                                                    • Figure 22: MULO sales of almond milk, by leading companies and brands, by market share, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                  • Whitewave’s portfolio of brands leads coconut milk segment
                                                    • Figure 23: MULO sales of coconut milk, by leading companies and brands, by market share, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                  • Silk faces little competition in the struggling soy segment
                                                    • Figure 24: MULO sales of soy milk, by leading companies and brands, by market share, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                • What’s Working?

                                                  • Almond milk continues to soar
                                                    • Figure 25: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                  • Private label brands make their mark
                                                    • Figure 26: MULO sales of other non-dairy milks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                  • Refrigerated options see a sales boost
                                                    • Figure 27: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, by category, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 5/24/15 and 5/21/17
                                                • What’s Struggling?

                                                  • Soy milk continues to struggle
                                                    • Rice milk falls at natural channel
                                                      • Figure 28: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 5/24/15 and 5/21/17
                                                  • What’s Next?

                                                    • Innovative plant bases keep the category fresh
                                                      • Figure 29: Non-dairy milk GNPD entries, by year published, Dec 2016
                                                    • Non-dairy on-the-go beverages
                                                      • Blended non-dairy milk beverages
                                                      • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                        • Non-dairy milk lives in more than half of adult homes
                                                          • Parents drink non-dairy, opt for dairy for their kids
                                                            • Non-dairy milk consumers are buying more
                                                              • Taste trumps nutrition in purchase drivers
                                                                • Non-dairy milk siloed as an additive
                                                                  • Non-dairy milks trail dairy in health perception
                                                                    • Brand names draw non-dairy milk consumers
                                                                      • Still work to do to build consumer association
                                                                      • Non-dairy Milk Purchase

                                                                        • More than half of consumers purchase non-dairy milk
                                                                          • Figure 30: Non-dairy milk purchase, July 2017
                                                                        • Strong cross consumption of both dairy and non-dairy
                                                                          • Figure 31: Non-dairy milk purchase, by dairy milk purchase, July 2017
                                                                        • Consumers of emerging non-dairy types do so in addition to almond milk
                                                                          • Figure 32: Non-dairy milk purchase, by non-dairy milk purchase, July 2017
                                                                        • Age and income are driving factors of purchase
                                                                          • Figure 33: Non-dairy milk purchase, by age and income, July 2017
                                                                        • Midwesterners are slow to pick up non-dairy milks
                                                                          • Figure 34: Non-dairy milk purchase, by region, July 2017
                                                                        • Non-dairy milks popular among Asians, Hispanics
                                                                          • Figure 35: Non-dairy milk purchase, by race, July 2017
                                                                      • Non-dairy Milk Consumption

                                                                        • Household consumption
                                                                          • Non-dairy milk consumers purchase dairy for their kids
                                                                            • Figure 36: Household consumption of any non-dairy milk, July 2016
                                                                          • Kids consume more less-common milk types than non-dairy staples
                                                                            • Figure 37: Household consumption, July 2016
                                                                          • Multicultural parents less likely to give their children non-dairy milk
                                                                            • Figure 38: Household consumption of any non-dairy milk, July 2016
                                                                          • Shifts in consumption
                                                                            • Majority of non-dairy milk consumers are buying more
                                                                              • Figure 39: Shifts in consumption, July 2017
                                                                            • Non-dairy milk repertoires slowly expand outside of the basics
                                                                              • Figure 40: Shifts in consumption, by non-dairy milk type, July 2017
                                                                            • With higher income comes age and increased selectivity
                                                                              • Figure 41: Shifts in consumption of any non-dairy milk, by household income, July 2017
                                                                            • Parents, especially fathers, are purchasing more non-dairy milk
                                                                              • Figure 42: Shifts in consumption of any non-dairy milk, by gender and parental status, July 2017
                                                                            • Hispanics a strong target for increased consumption
                                                                              • Figure 43: Shifts in consumption of any non-dairy milk, by Hispanic origin, July 2017
                                                                          • Purchase Incentives

                                                                            • Taste drives non-dairy milk purchase
                                                                              • Figure 44: Purchase incentives, July 2017
                                                                            • More factors influence non-dairy milk consumer purchase
                                                                              • Figure 45: Purchase incentives, by milk consumption, July 2017
                                                                            • Besides taste, nutritional content sways milk purchase for men
                                                                              • Figure 46: Purchase incentives, by any non-dairy milk purchase, by gender, July 2017
                                                                            • Importance of milk being good for kids increases with number of children
                                                                              • Figure 47: Purchase incentives of milk, by any non-dairy milk purchase, by number of children in household, July 2017
                                                                            • Hispanic Millennials have different desires driving purchase
                                                                              • Figure 48: Purchase incentives of dairy or non-dairy milk, by Hispanic origin, July 2017
                                                                              • Figure 49: Attitudes toward natural products and lifestyles, net by agreement, by Hispanic origin and generation, April 2017
                                                                            • TURF analysis – September 2017
                                                                              • Methodology
                                                                                • Natural and low-fat qualities can drive incremental reach
                                                                                  • Figure 50: TURF analysis – Purchase incentives, July 2017
                                                                                  • Figure 51: Table - TURF analysis – Purchase incentives, July 2017
                                                                              • Health Perceptions

                                                                                • Non-dairy milks trail dairy milk in health perception
                                                                                  • Figure 52: Health perceptions, July 2017
                                                                                • Non-dairy milk consumers consider almond milk healthiest
                                                                                  • Figure 53: Health perceptions of non-dairy milk purchasers, July 2017
                                                                                • Views on healthfulness change among Millennials
                                                                                  • Figure 54: Health perceptions, by generation and milk types, July 2017
                                                                                • Asians place soy milk among healthiest of the category
                                                                                  • Figure 55: Health perceptions, by race, July 2017
                                                                              • Milk Uses

                                                                                • Consumers use non-dairy milk as an additive
                                                                                  • Figure 56: Milk use occasions, any non-dairy, July 2017
                                                                                • Coconut milk stands out as an ingredient
                                                                                  • Figure 57: Milk uses, by type of non-dairy milk, July 2017
                                                                                • Almost half of 18-24-year-olds drink non-dairy milk with a meal
                                                                                  • Figure 58: Milk use occasions, by age, July 2017
                                                                                • Men more likely to use non-dairy milk as a drink
                                                                                  • Figure 59: Milk use occasions, by gender and non-dairy milk type, July 2017
                                                                                • Multicultural differences in non-dairy milk uses
                                                                                  • Figure 60: Milk use occasions of any non-dairy milk, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2017
                                                                              • Attitudes toward Milk

                                                                                • Nearly one in five adults are consuming less dairy to stay healthy
                                                                                  • Figure 61: Attitudes toward dairy, total population, July 2017
                                                                                  • Figure 62: Attitudes toward dairy, by any dairy and non-dairy milk purchase, July 2017
                                                                                • Age and income influence propensity to move away from dairy
                                                                                  • Figure 63: Attitudes toward dairy, total population, by age and income, July 2017
                                                                                • Overall, consumers are not confused with non-dairy labeled as “milk”
                                                                                  • Figure 64: Attitudes toward dairy, total population, July 2017
                                                                                  • Figure 65: Attitudes toward dairy, by any dairy and non-dairy milk purchase, July 2017
                                                                                • Older consumers more sceptical of non-dairy “milk” labeling
                                                                                  • Figure 66: Attitudes toward dairy, total population, by education level, July 2017
                                                                                • While environmental factors are a concern for some, it does not drive purchase
                                                                                  • Figure 67: Attitudes toward milk, dairy or non-dairy milk purchase, July 2017
                                                                                  • Figure 68: Attitudes toward milk, by any dairy and non-dairy milk purchase, July 2017
                                                                                • 18-34-year-olds have a heightened concern for environmental impact; still not a strong purchase driver
                                                                                  • Figure 69: Attitudes toward milk, dairy or non-dairy milk purchase, July 2017
                                                                                • Brand name means more to non-dairy milk consumers
                                                                                  • Figure 70: Attitudes toward milk, dairy or non-dairy milk purchase, July 2017
                                                                                  • Figure 71: Attitudes toward milk, by any dairy and non-dairy milk purchase, July 2017
                                                                                • Fathers seek out branded milks, willing to pay more
                                                                                  • Figure 72: Attitudes toward milk, dairy or non-dairy milk purchase, by gender and parent status, July 2017
                                                                                • Black consumers seek out favorite brands, aren’t as willing pay
                                                                                  • Figure 73: Milk attitudes, dairy or non-dairy milk purchase, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2017
                                                                              • Milk Associations

                                                                                • Consumers lack associations with non-dairy milk
                                                                                  • Figure 74: Attribute associations, by milk type, July 2017
                                                                                • Unsweetened non-dairy milk positive in nutrition, lacks in taste
                                                                                  • Sweetened non-dairy milk thrives in taste, falls short on all else
                                                                                    • Figure 75: Attribute associations, unsweetened and sweetened non-dairy milk, July 2017
                                                                                  • Younger men associate non-dairy milk with more than just good taste
                                                                                    • Figure 76: Attribute associations of any non-dairy milk, by gender and age, July 2017
                                                                                  • Black consumers note nutrition content in non-dairy milks
                                                                                    • Figure 77: Attribute associations of any non-dairy milk, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2017
                                                                                • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                                  • Data sources
                                                                                    • Sales data
                                                                                      • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                        • Consumer survey data
                                                                                          • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                                                            • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                                • Figure 78: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                                                                                                • Figure 79: Total US retail sales and forecast of almond milk, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                                • Figure 80: Total US retail sales and forecast of almond milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                                                • Figure 81: Total US retail sales and forecast of coconut milk, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                                • Figure 82: Total US retail sales and forecast of coconut milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                                                • Figure 83: Total US retail sales and forecast of soy milk, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                                • Figure 84: Total US retail sales and forecast of soy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                                                • Figure 85: Total US retail sales and forecast of other non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                                • Figure 86: Total US retail sales and forecast of other non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                                                • Figure 87: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of almond milk, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                                • Figure 88: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of coconut milk, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                                • Figure 89: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of soy milk, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                                • Figure 90: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of other non-dairy milks, at current prices, 2012-22
                                                                                            • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                                • Figure 91: MULO sales of almond milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                                                • Figure 92: MULO sales of coconut milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                                                • Figure 93: MULO sales of soy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                                                • Figure 94: MULO sales of other non-dairy milks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                                            • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                                                • Figure 95: Health attitudes, any agree, by type of milk consumed in household, March 2017
                                                                                                • Figure 96: Food attitudes/opinions, any agree, by type of milk consumed in household, March 2017

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