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Utility Capital Expenditure - UK - July 2015

“The approach to infrastructure investment is in transition across the utility industry. Whereas spending was previously mainly output-driven, future investment decisions will be increasingly centred on innovation, asset optimisation and long-term outcomes. Operators will also be challenged by rising pressure from industry regulators to reduce costs for consumers, which highlights the importance of cost efficiencies in capital investment decisions.”

– Claudia Preedy - B2B Analyst

This report will explore the following key questions with regard to Utility Capital Expenditure in the UK:

  • What are the key drivers for capital investment in the water and sewerage industry?
  • What are the key drivers for network investment in the electricity transmission and distribution sector?
  • What are the drivers for capital investment in the gas supply and distribution industry?
  • How will changes in the regulatory environment affect the approach to capital investment?
  • How does environmental legislation and regulations affect the utility industry?
  • What are the expenditure plans for the current regulatory control period in the various utility sectors?

Although changes in the regulatory framework are likely to restrict traditional network investment, they will also provide opportunities for the supply industry, particularly for companies offering innovative solutions and new technologies that facilitate efficient and optimised asset management. The strongest growth is expected in the energy networks sector, driven by rising electricity demand versus the closure of generation capacity, changes in the energy mix and the growth of low carbon technologies.

Following the privatisation and deregulation of UK utilities, the government appointed industry regulators to determine the prices they are permitted to charge customers. This takes into account planned expenditure to meet both UK and European legislation requirements, while also allowing companies to develop their infrastructure appropriately. Consequently, the utilities are effectively trapped in their expenditure plans, while forecasts of capital expenditure tend to be very accurate, given that utilities have to comply with regulator assessments.

 

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Table of contents

  1. Executive Summary

      • The market
        • Water & sewerage sector
          • Figure 1: UK capital expenditure on water and sewerage services, 2009/102013/14
        • Electricity transmission & distribution industry
          • Figure 2: Forecast network investment of the electricity distribution network operators in Great Britain, 2015/16-2022/23
          • Figure 3: Capital expenditure by the electricity transmission industry in Great Britain, 2009/10-2013/14
        • Gas transmission & distribution industry
          • Figure 4: Total gas transmission and distribution capital expenditure, 2009/10-2013/14
        • Market factors
          • Utility industry regulation
            • Legislative factors
              • Companies
                • What we think
                  • Key capital investment trends across the utility sectors include:
                  • Key Insights

                      • What does the shift towards total expenditure (Totex) and long-term outcomes in AMP6 mean for the water and sewerage industry?
                        • What are the key drivers for network investment by the electricity distribution network operators (DNOs)?
                          • What are the key drivers for investment and challenges facing the electricity transmission sector?
                            • Have Ofgem’s settlements for gas distribution networks for the price control period RIIO-GD1 been too generous?
                            • Introduction

                              • Market factors
                                • Definitions
                                  • Water & Sewerage
                                    • Electricity Transmission
                                      • Electricity Distribution
                                        • Gas Distribution
                                          • Gas Transmission
                                            • Methodology
                                              • Abbreviations
                                                • Market positioning
                                                  • Customers
                                                    • Suppliers
                                                      • Market factors
                                                      • UK Economy

                                                        • Overview
                                                          • Inflation
                                                            • Interest rates
                                                              • Business investment
                                                              • Water & Sewerage Industry

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • Water & sewerage industry market factors
                                                                    • Industry regulation
                                                                      • Ofwat’s priorities are manifold and include:
                                                                        • Legislative environment
                                                                          • European Water Framework Directive (WFD)
                                                                            • Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (UWWTD)
                                                                                • Figure 5: Sewerage treatment enhancement expenditure driven by UWWTD in England & Wales, 1990-15
                                                                                • Figure 6: Sewerage treatment enhancement expenditure driven by UWWTD in England & Wales, 1990-2015
                                                                              • The Drinking Water Directive
                                                                                • Revised Bathing Water Directive
                                                                                    • Figure 7: UK coastal bathing water compliance with Bathing Water Directive for mandatory coliform standards, as of 2014
                                                                                  • Transfer of private sewers in England and Wales
                                                                                    • Figure 8: Capital expenditure on private sewers in England & Wales, by water and sewerage company, 2012-15
                                                                                  • The Flood and Water Management Act 2010
                                                                                    • Water Act 2014 to open up water and sewerage retail competition for all business customers in 2017
                                                                                    • Water & Sewerage Capital Expenditure

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Overview
                                                                                          • Figure 9: Total capital expenditure by water and sewerage companies in England & Wales, 2005-10 and 2010-15
                                                                                          • Figure 10: Total capital expenditure by water-only companies in England & Wales, 2005-2010 and 2010-2015
                                                                                          • Figure 11: Actual UK capital expenditure on water and sewerage services, 2009/10-2014/15
                                                                                          • Figure 12: UK capital expenditure on water and sewerage services, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                          • Figure 13: UK Capital Expenditure on Water and Sewerage Services, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                        • Sewerage-related capital expenditure
                                                                                          • Figure 14: Analysis of sewerage-related capital expenditure in England and Wales, by company, 2008/09-2013/14
                                                                                          • Figure 15: Analysis of sewerage-related capital expenditure, by water and sewerage companies in England and Wales, 2008/09-2013/14
                                                                                          • Figure 16: Analysis of sewerage capital expenditure in England and Wales by water and sewerage companies, by type, 2011/122013/14
                                                                                        • Water-related capital expenditure
                                                                                          • Figure 17: Analysis of water related capital expenditure, by water and sewerage companies in England and Wales, 2008/09-2013/14
                                                                                          • Figure 18: Analysis of water-related capital expenditure, by water and sewerage companies in England and Wales, 2008/09-2013/14
                                                                                          • Figure 19: Analysis of water capital expenditure in England & Wales, by water and sewerage companies, by purpose, 2013/14
                                                                                          • Figure 20: Analysis of water capital expenditure by water-only companies in England & Wales, by type, 2013/14
                                                                                          • Figure 21: Analysis of water capital expenditure in England and Wales, by water and sewerage companies, by type, 2011/12-2013/14
                                                                                          • Figure 22: Analysis of water capital expenditure in England and Wales, by water and sewerage companies, by type, 2013/14
                                                                                          • Figure 23: Analysis of water capital expenditure in England and Wales, by water-only companies, by type, 2011/12-2013/14
                                                                                          • Figure 24: Analysis of water capital expenditure in England and Wales, by water-only companies, by type, 2013/14
                                                                                        • Scottish Water Capital Expenditure
                                                                                          • Figure 25: Analysis of Scottish Water capital expenditure on water and sewerage services, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                          • Figure 26: Progress of Scottish Water to Date in the Five Year Investment Programme 2010/15
                                                                                        • Northern Ireland Capital Expenditure
                                                                                          • Figure 27: Analysis of Northern Ireland Water capital expenditure on water and sewerage services, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                      • Water & Sewerage Future Capital Expenditure

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • 25-year Strategic Direction Statements
                                                                                              • Figure 28: UK Population, by Region, 2013-2025
                                                                                            • Forecast capital expenditure
                                                                                              • England & Wales - AMP6 2015-20
                                                                                                • Figure 29: Average expected combined household bill, by water and sewerage companies, 2014/15 and 2019/20
                                                                                                • Figure 30: Average expected household water bill, by water-only companies, 2014/15 and 2019/20
                                                                                              • Changes to regulatory framework for AMP6
                                                                                                • Move towards long-term alliances and frameworks across industry
                                                                                                  • Figure 31: Total expenditure (Totex) allowance for AMP6 in England & Wales, by water & sewerage company, 2015/16-2019/20
                                                                                                  • Figure 32: Total expenditure (Totex) allowance for AMP6 in England & Wales, by water & sewerage company, 2015/16-2019/20
                                                                                                  • Figure 33: Forecast capital expenditure for AMP6 in England & Wales, by water & sewerage company, 2015/16-2019/20
                                                                                                  • Figure 34: Forecast capital expenditure for AMP6 in England & Wales, by water & sewerage company, 2015/16-2019/20
                                                                                                  • Figure 35: Forecast capital expenditure for AMP6 in England & Wales, by water only company, 2015/16-2019/20
                                                                                                • Thames Tideway Tunnel
                                                                                                    • Figure 36: Estimated cost of Thames Tideway Tunnel, 2014/15-2021/22+
                                                                                                  • Scotland Investment Programme 2015-2021
                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Forecast Capital Expenditure for Scottish Water, 2015/16-2020/21
                                                                                                  • Northern Ireland Investment Programme 2015/16-2020/21
                                                                                                  • Electricity Industry

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Electricity industry market factors
                                                                                                        • Price Controls
                                                                                                          • Environmental and Legislative Factors
                                                                                                            • Ofgem retail market review
                                                                                                              • Electricity market reform
                                                                                                                • Contracts for Difference (CfDs)
                                                                                                                  • Capacity Market (CM)
                                                                                                                    • Renewables Obligation (RO)
                                                                                                                      • Feed-in Tariffs (FITs)
                                                                                                                        • The Renewable Heat Incentive
                                                                                                                          • Combined Heat and Power
                                                                                                                          • Electricity Distribution Capital Expenditure

                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                              • Capital expenditure
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 38: UK gross capital expenditure by electricity distribution network operators, 2009/102013/14
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 39: UK gross capital expenditure by the electricity distribution network operators, by company, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 40: UK gross capital expenditure by the electricity distribution network operators, by company, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                              • Electricity Distribution Future Capital Expenditure

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Capital expenditure allowance 2010-15
                                                                                                                                    • New price control framework based on Revenue = Incentives + Innovation + Outputs to come into effect from April 2015
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 41: Total expenditure allowance for RIIO-ED1 in Great Britain, by company, 2015/16-2022/23
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 42: Total expenditure allowance for RIIO-ED1 in Great Britain, by company, 2015/16-2022/23
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 43: Forecast network investment of the electricity distribution network operators in Great Britain, by company, 2015/162022/23
                                                                                                                                    • Electricity Transmission Capital Expenditure

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Capital expenditure
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 44: Size of electricity transmission network in Great Britain, 2014
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 45: Allowed Capital Expenditure by the Electricity Transmission Industry in Great Britain, 2007/08-2012/13
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 46: Capital expenditure by the electricity transmission industry in Great Britain, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 47: Capital expenditure by the electricity transmission industry in Great Britain, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                        • Electricity Transmission Future Capital Expenditure

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • New price control period RIIO-T1 2013-21
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 48: Baseline capital expenditure allowance for NGET, 2013/14-2020/21
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 49: Baseline capital expenditure allowance for SHETL 2013/14-2020/21
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 50: Baseline capital expenditure allowance for SPTL, 2013/14-2020/21
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 51: NGET annual capital expenditure, Actual 2013/14 and Forecast 2014/15-2020/21
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 52: SHET annual capital expenditure, Actual 2013/14 and Forecast 2014/15-2020/21
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 53: SPTL annual capital expenditure, Actual 2013/14 and Forecast 2014/15-2020/21
                                                                                                                                              • Drivers for future capital investment
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 54: Renewable electricity generation capacity awaiting/under construction, as of March 2015
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 55: Operational renewable generation capacity, by technology, as of March 2015
                                                                                                                                                • National Grid’s electricity 10 year statement
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 56: Major current and planned transmission network development projects, as of November 2014
                                                                                                                                                  • Future potential energy mix
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 57: Forecast power generation installed capacity under “slow progression” scenario, by source, 2015-35
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: Forecast power generation installed capacity under “gone green” scenario, by source, 2015-35
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 59: Forecast power generation installed capacity under “no progression” scenario, by source, 2015-35
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 60: Forecast power generation installed capacity under “low carbon life” scenario, by source, 2014-35
                                                                                                                                                  • Increased Interconnectivity between European Countries
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 61: Existing and planned interconnectors, as of November 2014
                                                                                                                                                • Gas Industry

                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                    • Market factors
                                                                                                                                                      • Social factors
                                                                                                                                                        • Economic factors
                                                                                                                                                          • The UK’s increased reliance on gas imports
                                                                                                                                                            • Potential for shale gas extraction
                                                                                                                                                              • Wholesale gas prices
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 62: Average wholesales gas prices, 2002-14
                                                                                                                                                              • Environmental and Legislative Factors
                                                                                                                                                                • Climate Change Programme (including Climate Change Levy, Agreement and efficiency measures)
                                                                                                                                                                  • Emissions trading scheme
                                                                                                                                                                    • Combined Heat and Power
                                                                                                                                                                      • EU Renewables Directives
                                                                                                                                                                        • UK renewables policy
                                                                                                                                                                          • Renewables Obligation (RO)
                                                                                                                                                                            • FeedIn Tariffs (FITs)
                                                                                                                                                                              • The Renewable Heat Incentive
                                                                                                                                                                                • National emission ceilings directive
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Carbon Emission Reduction Target (CERT) and Community Energy Saving Programme (CESP)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Energy Company Obligation (ECO)
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Carbon Emissions Reduction Obligation
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Community obligation
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Home heating cost reduction obligation
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Gas Capital Expenditure

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                              • The market 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 63: Total gas transmission and distribution capital expenditure, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 64: Total gas transmission capital expenditure, 2009/10-13/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 65: Total gas distribution capital expenditure, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 66: Total gas transmission and distribution capital expenditure, 2009/10-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 67: Cumulative capital expenditure during GDPRC1 2008-13, by GDN and type
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Replacement Expenditure (Repex)
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 68: Length of gas mains replaced, by distribution network operator, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 69: Cumulative replacement expenditure during GDPRC1 2008-13, by GDN and type
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Gas Future Capital Expenditure

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Forecast 2014-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 70: Ofgem’s required expansion of the number of properties to alleviate fuel poverty, 2013-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Innovation at centre of new price control model for gas distribution and transmission network
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Transmission network
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 71: Capital Expenditure Plans by National Grid Gas Under RIIO-T1, by Category, 2014-2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 72: Annual capital expenditure plans by National Grid Gas Under RIIO-T1, by Category, 2014-2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Distribution network
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 73: Controllable Cost Allowances for Gas Distribution Companies Under (RIIOGD1), 2014-2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 74: Annual capex plans under RIIO-GD1, by GDN, 2014-2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 75: Annual repex plans under RIIO-GD1, by GDN, 2014-2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 76: Forecast total capex and repex during RIIOGD1, 2013/142020/21
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Individual companies
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Northern gas networks
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 77: Northern Gas Networks Capex & Repex, 2013/14 (Actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (Planned)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 78: Northern Gas Networks Capex & Repex Workload, 2013/14 (Actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (Planned)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Scotland gas networks
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 79: Scotland Gas Networks Capex & Repex, 2013/14 (Actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (Planned)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 80: Scotland Gas Networks Capex & Repex Workload, 2013/14 (Actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (Planned)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Southern gas networks
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 81: Southern Gas Networks Capex & Repex, 2013/14 (Actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (Planned)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 82: Southern Gas Networks Capex & Repex Workload, 2013/14 (Actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (Planned)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Wales and West Utilities (WWU)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 83: WWU Capex & Repex, 2013/14 (Actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (Planned)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 84: WWU Capex & Repex Workload, 2013/14 (Actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (Planned)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • NGG East of England
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 85: NGG East of England Capex & Repex, 2013/14 (Actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (Planned)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 86: NGG East of England Capex & Repex Workload, 2013/14 (Actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (Planned)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • NGG London
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 87: NGG London Capex & Repex, 2013/14 (Actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (Planned)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 88: NGG London Capex & Repex Workload, 2013/14 (Actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (Planned)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • NGG North West
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 89: NGG North West Capex & Repex, 2013/14 (Actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (Planned)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 90: NGG North West Capex & Repex Workload, 2013/14 (Actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (Planned)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • NGG West Midlands
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 91: NGG West Midlands Capex & Repex, 2013/14 (Actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (Planned)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 92: NGG West Midlands Capex & Repex Workload, 2013/14 (Actual) and 2014/15-2020/21 (Planned)
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Supply Industry Structure

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Companies
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • AMEC Foster Wheeler

                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Company outlook:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 93: Financial analysis of AMEC, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Balfour Beatty

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Balfour Beatty announces six profit warnings in two years as it faces major challenges from construction contracts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 94: Financial analysis of Balfour Beatty, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 95: Financial analysis of Balfour Beatty by segment, 2012-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Kellogg Brown & Root Holdings

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 96: Financial Analysis of Kellogg Brown & Root Holdings, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • The Costain Group

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 97: Financial Analysis of Costain Group, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 98: Turnover analysis of Costain Group, by division, 2010-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Laing O’rourke Utilities

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 99: Financial analysis of Laing O’Rourke, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 100: Financial analysis of Laing O’Rourke Utilities, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Morrison Utility Services

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 101: Financial analysis of Morrison Utility Services, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Mcnicholas Construction Holdings

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Company performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 102: Financial Analysis of McNicholas Construction (Holdings), 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Forefront Utilities

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 103: Financial analysis of Forefront Utilities, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Further Sources & Contacts

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Association of Electricity Producers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Energy Networks Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Energy Industries Council
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Energy Retail Association1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Office of Gas and Electricity Markets - Scotland (Ofgem Scotland)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Office of Gas and Electricity Markets - Wales (Ofgem Wales)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Energy Networks Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Society of British Gas Industries
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Association of Consulting Engineers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • British Water
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • British Waterways Board
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Chartered Institution of Water & Environmental Management
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • International Water Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • OFWAT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Society of British Water & Wastewater Industries
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • National Joint Utilities Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Trade magazines
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Engineer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • European Process Engineer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Modern Utility Management
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Plant Engineer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Plant and Works Engineering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Professional Engineering
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Utility Week
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Trade exhibitions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Utility Week Live incorporating IWEX 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Sustainability Live 2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Utility Capital Expenditure - UK - July 2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  US $1,321.06 (Excl.Tax)