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Wine - US - November 2016

"Dollar sales of wine are estimated to reach $61 billion in 2016, an increase of 22% since 2011 (14% inflation-adjusted). Volume sales are growing at a slower rate (7% from 2011-16), pointing to the influence of higher price point products."

- Mimi Bonnett, Director - Food and Drink, Foodservice

This report is looking at the following areas:

  • Half of wine buyers consider themselves “beginners”
  • Wine is not widely viewed as an artisanal/craft product
  • Industry terms don’t resonate with wine buyers

This Report includes retail sales for domestic and imported wine for home (off-premise) and on-premise consumption. The Report covers the following types of wine:

  • Still/table wine – noncarbonated wine; primarily red, white, or rosé/blush
  • Champagne and sparkling wines
  • Dessert and fortified wines
  • Vermouth and aperitifs

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Half of wine buyers consider themselves “beginners”
            • Figure 1: Wine behavior – Beginner, by generation, August 2016
          • Wine is not widely viewed as an artisanal/craft product
            • Figure 2: Wine statements – Artisanal/craft, August 2016
          • Industry terms don’t resonate with wine buyers
            • Figure 3: Wine statements – Wine terms, August 2016
          • The opportunities
            • Sparkling share of sales continues to grow
              • Figure 4: US volume sales of wine, by segment, 2011-21
            • Smaller formats may drive trial
              • Figure 5: Wine statements – Full-size bottle, by “beginner,” August 2016
            • 85% of wine buyers purchase more around the holidays
              • Figure 6: Wine behavior – Holiday purchase, August 2016
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Volume sales of wine grow 7% from 2011-16
                • Sparkling share of sales continues to grow
                  • Domestic wine comprises a higher percent of volume sales
                    • Off-premise sales makes up the largest share of the market
                      • Beer leads alcohol consumption
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • Dollar sales of wine are estimated to reach $61 billion in 2016
                          • Figure 7: Total US on- and off-premise sales and fan chart forecast of wine, at current prices, 2011-21
                          • Figure 8: Total US on- and off-premise sales and forecast of wine, at current prices, 2011-21
                          • Figure 9: Total US on- and off-premise sales and forecast of wine, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                        • Volume sales of wine grow 7% from 2011-16
                          • Figure 10: Total US volume sales and forecast of wine, 2011-21
                          • Figure 11: Total US volume sales and forecast of wine, 2011-21
                      • Market Breakdown

                        • Sparkling share of wine sales continues to grow
                          • Figure 12: US volume sales of wine, by segment, 2011-21
                        • Domestic wine comprises higher percent of volume sales
                          • Figure 13: US volume sales of wine, by origin, 2011-15
                        • Off-premise sales makes up the largest share of the market
                          • Figure 14: US volume sales of wine, by channel, at current prices, 2011-15
                      • Market Perspective

                        • Beer leads alcohol consumption
                          • Figure 15: Alcohol consumption – Any drink*, October 2015
                          • Figure 16: Correspondence Analysis – Perceptions of alcoholic drink types, October 2015
                          • Figure 17: Perceptions of types of alcoholic drinks, October 2015
                      • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                        • 19% of wine drinkers consume Barefoot table wine offerings
                          • 94% of table wine launches are in bottles
                            • Cap closures are gaining share among table wine launches
                              • Cans are gaining share among sparkling wine launches
                              • Leading Wine Brands

                                • 19% of wine drinkers consumer Barefoot table wine offerings
                                  • Figure 18: Leading brands consumed – Domestic table wine, 2012 and 2016
                                • 9% of wine drinkers consume Yellow Tail table wine options
                                  • Figure 19: Leading brands consumed – Imported table wine, 2012 and 2016
                                • 10% of wine drinkers drink Korbel
                                  • Figure 20: Leading brands consumed – Champagne/sparkling wine, 2012 and 2016
                                • Taylor and Harvey’s Bristol Cream lead Port/dessert wines consumed
                                  • Figure 21: Leading brands consumed – Port/dessert wine, 2012 and 2016
                              • What’s Working?

                                • 94% of table wine launches are in bottles
                                  • Figure 22: Table wine launches, by leading pack type, 2012-16*
                                • Cap closures are gaining share among table wine launches
                                  • Figure 23: Table wine launches, by closure type, 2012-16*
                                • Cans are gaining share among sparkling wine launches
                                  • Figure 24: Champagne/sparkling wine launches, by leading pack type, 2012-16*
                                • Ethical claims are on the rise among table wine launches
                                  • Figure 25: Table wine launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
                              • What’s Next?

                                • Packaging innovation can already be seen in the category
                                  • Cans
                                    • Smaller sizes
                                      • Boxes
                                        • Capitalizing on other alcoholic beverage trends
                                          • Focus on craft
                                            • Make it sparkle
                                              • Wine cocktails
                                                • Figure 26: Wine statements – Innovation, by generation, August 2016
                                                • Figure 27: “Barefoot Courtside Cup Cocktail,” online video, June 2016
                                                • Figure 28: “Shipwrecked Margarita – Sutter Home Wine Cocktails,” online video, July 2016
                                            • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                              • 54% of adults 22+ purchase still table wine, 28% purchase sparkling
                                                • Half of wine buyers consider themselves “beginners”
                                                  • Price leads purchase decision
                                                    • Wine is not widely viewed as an artisanal/craft product
                                                      • Industry terms don’t resonate with wine buyers
                                                        • 85% of wine buyers purchase more wine around the holidays
                                                        • Wine Purchase

                                                          • More than half of adults purchase still table wine, a quarter purchase sparkling options
                                                            • Figure 29: Wine purchase, August 2016
                                                          • Wine purchase is pretty evenly split between men and women
                                                            • Figure 30: Share of wine purchase, by gender, August 2016
                                                          • Millennials and Boomers make up largest share of wine buyers
                                                            • Figure 31: Share of wine purchase, by generation, August 2016
                                                          • Hispanics make up a small portion of wine buyers
                                                            • Figure 32: Share of wine purchase, by Hispanic origin, August 2016
                                                          • Close to half of wine buyers are from the highest income-earning HHs
                                                            • Figure 33: Share of wine purchase, by HH income, August 2016
                                                        • Wine Experience

                                                          • The majority of wine drinkers drink wine multiple times per week
                                                            • Figure 34: Wine behavior – Consumption, August 2016
                                                          • Men are more likely to be frequent drinkers
                                                            • Figure 35: Wine behavior – Consumption, by gender, August 2016
                                                          • Half of wine buyers consider themselves “beginners”
                                                            • Figure 36: Wine behavior – Beginner, August 2016
                                                          • Men are less likely than women to identify as a “beginner”
                                                            • Figure 37: Wine behavior – Beginner, by gender, August 2016
                                                          • Millennials are most likely to identify as wine beginners
                                                            • Figure 38: Wine behavior – Beginner, by generation, August 2016
                                                          • Vast range intimidates 37% of wine buyers
                                                            • Figure 39: Wine behavior – Intimidation, August 2016
                                                          • Younger drinkers are most likely in need of guidance
                                                            • Figure 40: Wine behavior – Intimidation, by generation, August 2016
                                                            • Figure 41: Wine behavior – Intimidation, by “beginner,” August 2016
                                                        • Wine Formats

                                                          • Packaging
                                                            • 41% of wine buyers purchase wine in boxes
                                                              • Figure 42: Wine behavior – Format purchased, August 2016
                                                              • Figure 43: Wine statements – Interest in cans, August 2016
                                                            • Millennials make up the majority of nonconventional format buyers
                                                              • Figure 44: Wine behavior – Share of format purchased, by generation, August 2016
                                                            • Purchase of alternative formats increases with income
                                                              • Figure 45: Wine behavior –Format purchased, by HH income, August 2016
                                                            • Alternative formats continue to struggle with perception
                                                              • Figure 46: Wine statements – Perception of alternative formats, August 2016
                                                            • Men are more likely to be open to alternative formats
                                                              • Figure 47: Wine statements – Perception of alternative formats, by gender, August 2016
                                                              • Figure 48: Wine statements – Interest in cans, by gender, August 2016
                                                            • Millennials are the strongest target for canned wine
                                                              • Figure 49: Wine statements – Perception of alternative formats, by generation, August 2016
                                                              • Figure 50: Wine statements – Interest in cans, by generation, August 2016
                                                            • Smaller formats may drive trial
                                                              • Figure 51: Wine statements – Full-size bottle, August 2016
                                                            • Millennials are attracted to smaller sizes
                                                              • Figure 52: Wine statements – Full-size bottle, by generation, August 2016
                                                            • Smaller formats may open the door to “beginners”
                                                              • Figure 53: Wine statements – Full-size bottle, by “beginner,” August 2016
                                                            • Origin
                                                              • US wine buyers are more likely to purchase domestic options
                                                                • Figure 54: Wine behavior – type purchased, August 2016
                                                              • Lower-income HHs are less likely to purchase imported wine
                                                                • Figure 55: Wine behavior –Type purchased, by HH income, August 2016
                                                              • Italian wine leads imported consumption in the US
                                                                • Figure 56: Types of imported wine consumed – Country of origin, 2012 and 2016
                                                              • Styles
                                                                • Merlot and cabernet sauvignon are most popular domestic wine types consumed
                                                                  • Figure 57: Types of domestic wine consumed, 2012 and 2016
                                                              • Wine Pricing

                                                                • Wine buyers have a fairly high threshold for value wine pricing
                                                                  • Figure 58: Price sensitivity – Mean, August 2016
                                                                • Women have a lower tolerance for high price
                                                                  • Figure 59: Price sensitivity – Mean, by gender, August 2016
                                                                • Millennials are more likely to see wine in higher price points
                                                                  • Figure 60: Price sensitivity – Mean, by generation, August 2016
                                                                • Wine buyers who prioritize price have a lower threshold
                                                                  • Figure 61: Price sensitivity – Mean, by price as a purchase factor, August 2016
                                                              • Purchase Location

                                                                • Off-premise purchase leads
                                                                  • Figure 62: Wine purchase location, August 2016
                                                                • Men are a stronger target for online, on-premise purchase
                                                                  • Figure 63: Wine purchase location share, by gender, August 2016
                                                                • 61% of on-premise wine buyers are Millennials
                                                                  • Figure 64: Wine purchase location share, by generation, August 2016
                                                                  • Figure 65: Wine purchase location – Off-premise, by generation, August 2016
                                                                • Lower earning HHs almost solely buy their wine at supermarkets, mass
                                                                  • Figure 66: Wine purchase location, by HH income, August 2016
                                                              • Purchase Drivers

                                                                • Price leads purchase decision
                                                                  • Figure 67: Wine purchase drivers – Top rank and any rank, August 2016
                                                                • Women are more price conscious than men
                                                                  • Figure 68: Wine purchase drivers – Any rank, by gender, August 2016
                                                                • Older wine buyers seek more traditional cues, Millennials look for recommendations
                                                                  • Figure 69: Wine purchase drivers – Any rank, by generation, August 2016
                                                                • Beginners are more likely to use price as a purchase factor
                                                                  • Figure 70: Wine purchase drivers – Any rank, by “beginner”, August 2016
                                                                • Price plays a smaller role among on-premise buyers
                                                                  • Figure 71: Wine purchase drivers – Any rank, by purchase location (Nets), August 2016
                                                                • Recommendations are useful to online shoppers
                                                                  • Figure 72: Wine purchase drivers – Any rank, by off-premise purchase location, August 2016
                                                                • Local does not appear as a strong purchase driver
                                                                  • Figure 73: Wine statements – Local, August 2016
                                                                  • Figure 74: Wine statements – Local, by generation, August 2016
                                                              • Attitudes toward Wine

                                                                • Wine is not widely viewed as an artisanal/craft product
                                                                  • Figure 75: Wine statements – Artisanal/craft, August 2016
                                                                • Industry terms don’t resonate with wine buyers
                                                                  • Figure 76: Wine statements – Wine terms, August 2016
                                                                • Straightforward descriptors are most likely to resonate with women
                                                                  • Figure 77: Wine statements – Wine terms, by gender, August 2016
                                                                • Appealing to Boomers can come from simplifying wine language
                                                                  • Figure 78: Wine statements – Wine terms, by generation, August 2016
                                                                • Those who base purchase decision on descriptors want simple ones
                                                                  • Figure 79: Wine statements – Wine terms, by importance of descriptions in purchase decision, August 2016
                                                                • Wine professionals are looked to for simple, straightforward guidance
                                                                  • Figure 80: Wine statements – Wine terms, by importance of recommendations in purchase decision, August 2016
                                                                  • Figure 81: Wine statements – Wine terms, by wine experience, August 2016
                                                                • A quarter of wine drinkers are open to casualization
                                                                  • Figure 82: “Anthem,” online video, April 2016
                                                                  • Figure 83: Wine statements – Casual, August 2016
                                                              • Holiday Purchase

                                                                • 85% of wine buyers purchase more around the holidays
                                                                  • Figure 84: “Add Sparkle to Your Table,” online video, December 2016
                                                                  • Figure 85: “Woodbridge Chardonnay Applesauce,” online video, October 2016
                                                                  • Figure 86: “Woodbridge Pinot Garlic Butter,” online video, September 2016
                                                                  • Figure 87: Wine behavior – Holiday purchase, August 2016
                                                                • The holidays are a good time to engage Millennial wine buyers
                                                                  • Figure 88: Wine behavior – Holiday purchase, by generation, August 2016
                                                                • Holiday gifting is a strong sales opportunity for high-income earners
                                                                  • Figure 89: Wine behavior – Holiday purchase, by HH income, August 2016
                                                              • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                • Data sources
                                                                  • Sales data
                                                                    • Fan chart forecast
                                                                      • Consumer survey data
                                                                        • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                          • Abbreviations
                                                                          • Appendix – Market

                                                                              • Figure 90: US volume sales of wine, by segment, 2011-21
                                                                              • Figure 91: US volume sales of wine, by origin, 2011-15
                                                                              • Figure 92: US volume sales of table wine, by origin, 2011-15
                                                                              • Figure 93: US volume sales of Champagne/sparkling wine, by origin, 2011-15
                                                                              • Figure 94: US volume sales of dessert and fortified wine, by origin, 2011-15
                                                                              • Figure 95: US volume sales of wine, by channel, at current prices, 2011-15
                                                                          • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                              • Figure 96: Leading brands consumed – domestic table wine, 2012-16
                                                                              • Figure 97: Leading brands consumed – imported table wine, 2012-16
                                                                              • Figure 98: Leading brands consumed – Champagne/sparkling wine, 2012-16
                                                                              • Figure 99: Leading brands consumed – Port/dessert wine, 2012-16
                                                                              • Figure 100: Table wine launches, by pack type, 2012-16*
                                                                              • Figure 101: Table wine launches, by closure type, 2012-16*
                                                                              • Figure 102: Champagne/sparkling wine launches, by leading pack type, 2012-16*
                                                                              • Figure 103: Table wine launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
                                                                              • Figure 104: Champagne/sparkling wine launches, by leading claims, 2012-16*
                                                                          • Appendix – Consumer

                                                                              • Figure 105: Mean # glasses consumed, 2012-16
                                                                              • Figure 106: Types of domestic wine consumed, 2012-16
                                                                              • Figure 107: Leading types of domestic wine consumed, by age, 2016
                                                                              • Figure 108: Types of imported wine consumed – country of origin, 2012-16
                                                                              • Figure 109: Types of imported wine consumed – country of origin, by age, 2016

                                                                          Wine - US - November 2016

                                                                          US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)