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Winter Holidays Abroad - UK - May 2016

“Geopolitical instability and terrorism has transformed the winter holiday landscape, with western Mediterranean resorts once seen as safe and unadventurous coming back into fashion, a situation that is unlikely to change in the short to medium term. Additionally, consumers’ increasing desire for authentic experiences has resulted in growing numbers of people taking winter holidays in the Nordic countries and this remains a prime area of potential for the future.”
– Michael Oliver, Senior Leisure and Media Analyst

This report answers the following questions:

  • What might encourage Millennials to take more winter holidays?
  • How is concern about political instability in the Middle East/North Africa region likely to impact on the winter holiday market?

The past two years have seen a steady growth in demand for winter holidays abroad after a number of years in the doldrums during the economic downturn, when household incomes were being squeezed and people were opting to take fewer holidays or holiday more in the UK in response.

This Report covers all winter holidays abroad, which are trips including an overnight stay, whether they are short breaks of one to three nights or longer holidays of four or more nights, both in European and non-European countries.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Demand bounces back in past two years
              • Market forecast to continue trend of growth
                • Figure 1: Forecast of winter holidays abroad market volume, 2015/16-2020/21
              • Key players
                • TUI and Thomas Cook are two main winter package operators
                  • Figure 2: Company market volumes in winter package holidays abroad, 2015/16
                • The consumer
                  • Winter holiday penetration is around two thirds the level of summer holidays
                    • Figure 3: Types of holidays taken/booked in 12 months since 1 April 2015, March 2016
                  • City breaks are most popular winter holiday
                    • Figure 4: Types of holiday taken – Winter versus summer, March 2016
                  • Potential to grow numbers going on winter holidays every year
                    • Figure 5: How often people take winter holidays, March 2016
                  • Retired most able to leave at short notice but harder to target
                    • Figure 6: Consumer behaviour and intentions relating to winter holidays abroad, March 2016
                  • Spanish territories are most popular European winter destinations
                    • Figure 7: European winter holiday destinations visited in 2015/16, March 2016
                  • Nine in ten plan to visit Europe again for winter holiday in 2016/17
                    • Figure 8: European winter holiday destinations visiting intentions for 2016/17, March 2016
                  • US is most popular intended winter destination for 2016/17 by far
                    • Figure 9: Non-European winter holiday destinations visiting intentions for 2016/17, March 2016
                  • What we think
                  • Issues and Insights

                    • What might encourage Millennials to take more winter holidays?
                      • The facts
                        • The implications
                          • How is concern about political instability in the Middle East/North Africa region likely to impact on the winter holiday market?
                            • The facts
                              • The implications
                              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                • Demand bounces back in past two years
                                  • Market forecast to continue trend of growth
                                    • October is peak winter month
                                      • Independent trips most popular but packages come back into vogue
                                        • Short-haul dominant but signs of renewed growth in long-haul
                                          • Spain set to benefit further from other countries’ troubles
                                            • Over-45s are the bedrock of the winter market
                                              • Skiing holidays starting to see growth but weather is working against them
                                                • Overseas holidays recovery boosts winter segment
                                                • Market Size and Forecast

                                                  • Demand bounces back in past two years
                                                    • Figure 10: Winter holidays abroad, volume, value and average spend, 2010/11-2020/21
                                                  • Forecast
                                                    • Figure 11: Forecast of winter holidays abroad market volume, 2015/16-2020/21
                                                    • Figure 12: Forecast of winter holidays abroad market value, 2015/16-2020/21
                                                  • Forecast methodology
                                                  • Market Segmentation

                                                    • October is most popular month for winter holidays abroad
                                                        • Figure 13: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by month, percentage analysis, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                      • Majority of winter trips are independent
                                                        • Figure 14: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by package vs independent, percentage analysis, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                      • Winter holidays tend to be shorter
                                                        • Figure 15: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by duration, percentage analysis, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                      • Short-haul dominant but signs of renewed growth in long-haul
                                                        • Figure 16: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by short-haul vs long-haul, percentage analysis, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                      • Spain set to benefit further from other countries’ troubles
                                                        • Figure 17: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by destination country, 2014/15
                                                      • Over-45s are the bedrock of the winter market
                                                        • Figure 18: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by age, percentage analysis, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                      • Skiing holidays starting to see growth but weather is working against them
                                                      • Channels to Market

                                                        • Online continues to grow share of winter bookings
                                                        • Market Drivers

                                                          • Overseas holidays recovery boosts winter segment
                                                            • Figure 19: Overseas holidays volume and value trends, 2010-15
                                                          • Political unrest and terrorism force operators to rebalance winter holiday programmes
                                                            • Fuel price falls provide small boost to market
                                                              • Eurozone was most affordable place to visit in 2015
                                                                • Figure 20: Trends in Sterling exchange rate vs major winter destination currencies, 2010-16
                                                              • Stricter school absence rules continue to impact family market
                                                                • APD changes boost long-haul and family trips
                                                                • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                  • TUI and Thomas Cook are two main winter package operators
                                                                    • Belleair specifically targets older winter holidaymakers
                                                                      • Operators seek to capitalise on interest in Northern Lights
                                                                        • easyJet looks to capitalise on urge for adventure
                                                                          • Ski-related apps focus on safety, location and social aspects
                                                                          • Market Share

                                                                            • TUI and Thomas Cook are two main winter package operators
                                                                                • Figure 21: Company market volume shares in winter package holidays abroad, 2015/16
                                                                            • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                              • Belleair specifically targets older winter holidaymakers
                                                                                • Sweden seeks to capitalise on interest in Northern Lights…
                                                                                  • …as do Iceland…
                                                                                    • …Finland and Norway
                                                                                      • easyJet looks to capitalise on urge for adventure
                                                                                        • Winter sun’s westward shift continues
                                                                                          • Abu Dhabi aims to position itself as a winter sun destination
                                                                                            • Ski-related apps focus on safety, location and social aspects
                                                                                            • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                              • Winter holiday penetration is around two thirds the level of summer holidays
                                                                                                • Scope for increasing loyalty?
                                                                                                  • City breaks are most popular winter holiday
                                                                                                    • Older consumers favour beaches over culture
                                                                                                      • Potential to grow numbers going on winter holidays every year
                                                                                                        • Retired most able to leave at short notice but harder to target
                                                                                                          • Spanish territories are most popular European winter destinations
                                                                                                            • Nine in ten plan to visit Europe again for winter holiday in 2016/17
                                                                                                              • US is most popular intended winter destination for 2016/17 by far
                                                                                                              • Winter versus Summer Holidays

                                                                                                                • Winter holiday penetration is around two thirds the level of summer holidays
                                                                                                                  • Figure 22: Types of holidays taken/booked in 12 months since 1 April 2015, March 2016
                                                                                                                • Scope for increasing loyalty?
                                                                                                                  • Figure 23: Combinations of holidays taken with winter holidays abroad, March 2016
                                                                                                              • Types of Holiday Taken – Winter vs Summer

                                                                                                                • City breaks are most popular winter holiday
                                                                                                                  • Figure 24: Types of holiday taken – Winter versus summer, March 2016
                                                                                                                • Older consumers favour beaches over culture
                                                                                                                  • 16-24s keen on last-minute deals
                                                                                                                    • Figure 25: Types of winter holiday taken/booked, by age, March 2016
                                                                                                                  • ‘Medium-haul’ destinations pushing up proportion of longer city breaks
                                                                                                                    • Figure 26: Types of winter holiday taken/booked, by duration of winter holiday, March 2016
                                                                                                                  • An opportunity to use partnerships to build loyalty?
                                                                                                                    • Figure 27: Multiple types of winter holidays taken, March 2016
                                                                                                                • How Often People Take Winter Holidays

                                                                                                                  • Potential to grow numbers going every year
                                                                                                                    • Figure 28: How often people take winter holidays, March 2016
                                                                                                                  • Over-55s have finances and flexibility to take regular winter holidays
                                                                                                                    • Figure 29: People who take winter holidays regularly, by age, March 2016
                                                                                                                • Consumer Behaviour and Intentions

                                                                                                                  • Retired most able to leave at short notice but harder to target
                                                                                                                    • Younger more open to signing up to deals and sharing preferences
                                                                                                                      • Money back for days without sun?
                                                                                                                          • Figure 30: Consumer behaviour and intentions relating to winter holidays abroad, March 2016
                                                                                                                      • European Winter Holiday Destinations Visited

                                                                                                                        • Spanish territories are most popular European winter destinations
                                                                                                                          • Figure 31: European winter holiday destinations visited/planned to visit in 2015/16, March 2016
                                                                                                                        • Canaries tops for beach holidays
                                                                                                                          • Figure 32: Types of winter holidays taken, by European winter holiday destinations visited in 2015/16, March 2016
                                                                                                                        • Potential for more variety in snowsports resorts?
                                                                                                                          • Figure 33: Consumer behaviour and intentions relating to winter holidays abroad, by European winter holiday destinations visited in 2015/16, March 2016
                                                                                                                      • European Winter Holiday Destination Visiting Intentions

                                                                                                                        • Nine in ten plan to visit Europe again for winter holiday in 2016/17
                                                                                                                          • Figure 34: European winter holiday destinations visiting intentions for 2016/17, March 2016
                                                                                                                        • France suffers terrorism hangover?
                                                                                                                          • Figure 35: Comparison of countries visited in 2015/16 with those planned to visit or seriously considering for 2016/17, March 2016
                                                                                                                      • Non-European Winter Holiday Destination Visiting Intentions

                                                                                                                        • US is most popular intended winter destination for 2016/17 by far
                                                                                                                          • Figure 36: Non-European winter holiday destinations visiting intentions for 2016/17, March 2016
                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                          • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                            • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                • Figure 37: Forecast of winter holidays abroad market volume, 2015/16-2020/21
                                                                                                                                • Figure 38: Forecast of winter holidays abroad market value, 2015/16-2020/21
                                                                                                                              • Forecast Methodology
                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Market Segmentation

                                                                                                                                  • Figure 39: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by month, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 40: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by package vs independent, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 41: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by duration, percentage analysis, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 42: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by short-haul vs long-haul, percentage analysis, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 43: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by age, percentage analysis, 2012/13-2014/15

                                                                                                                              Companies Covered

                                                                                                                              To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                              Winter Holidays Abroad - UK - May 2016

                                                                                                                              £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)