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Yogurt - US - November 2009

Yogurt sales continue to rise as more Americans become aware of yogurt’s health benefits. The U.S. yogurt market reached an estimated $4.1 billion in 2009 in FDMx. In this report Mintel discusses how consumer trends, the economy, and new product trends are influencing the yogurt market. In addition to presenting sales data by segment, supplier and brand, the report considers a range of topics, including:

  • The size of the yogurt market and growth forecast through 2014
  • How the economic recession has hurt certain segments of the yogurt market while giving others a boost
  • Why small premium brands and private label are driving growth at the expense of the market leaders
  • How new product trends, including natural/organic, functional, just-for-kids and indulgent dessert yogurts, are changing the look of the yogurt aisle
  • How probiotic yogurt sales will be affected following the recent lawsuit against Dannon alleging it overstated the health benefits of Activia and DanActive probiotic yogurts
  • How three Greek-style yogurt brands—Chobani, Fage Total and The Greek Gods—have differentiated themselves from other yogurts and each other and positioned themselves for growth
  • Why consumers aged 45+ are an excellent target for yogurt manufacturers

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Advertising clips
                • Abbreviations and terms
                  • Abbreviations
                    • Terms
                    • Executive Summary

                      • Yogurt sales reach $4.1 billion in FDMx in 2009
                        • Refrigerated yogurt is largest and fastest growing segment
                          • Small premium brands and private label are stealing share from market leaders Dannon and Yoplait
                            • Supermarkets dominate sales, but other channels are gaining ground
                              • More than 1,200 new yogurt products launched since 2005
                                • Refrigerated yogurt consumption continues to rise
                                  • Interest in probiotic yogurt is growing despite consumer confusion about what probiotics are
                                  • Insights and Opportunities

                                      • Figure 1: Attitudes towards health and nutrition, by age, February 2008-March 2009
                                      • Figure 2: Yogurt consumption, by type, by age, February 2008-March 2009
                                      • Figure 3: Importance of healthy positioning with yogurt and yogurt drinks, by age, August 2009
                                    • Room for private label to grow via premium, organic/natural offerings
                                      • Need to clear up the confusion around probiotics
                                      • Inspire Insights

                                        • Trust and transparency
                                          • Lost in the Supermarket
                                          • Market Size and Forecast

                                            • Key points
                                              • Healthy eating trend has driven growth since 2004, but recession leads to a slowdown in 2009
                                                • Small premium brands and private label are driving growth
                                                  • Sales expected to reach $5.2 billion by 2014
                                                    • Sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks
                                                      • Figure 4: FDMx sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2004-14
                                                      • Figure 5: FDMx sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-14
                                                    • Walmart sales
                                                    • Competitive Context

                                                      • Key points
                                                        • Recession gives private label sales a boost and puts market leader Dannon on the defensive
                                                          • Probiotic products are driving growth, but sales may suffer
                                                            • Yogurt no longer “owns” probiotics
                                                            • Segment Performance

                                                              • Key points
                                                                • Recession hurts sales of most types of yogurt, but gives frozen yogurt sales a boost
                                                                  • Sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by segment
                                                                    • Figure 6: FDMx sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by type, 2004-09
                                                                  • Sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks by segment
                                                                    • Figure 7: FDMx sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks by type, 2007 and 2009
                                                                • Segment Performance—Refrigerated Yogurt

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Rapid growth driven by rising consumption, product innovation
                                                                      • Slowdown in 2009 amid economic recession
                                                                        • Sales and forecast of refrigerated yogurt
                                                                          • Figure 8: FDMx sales and forecast of refrigerated yogurt, 2004-14
                                                                      • Segment Performance—Refrigerated Yogurt Drinks

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • Perceptions of yogurt drinks as “high calorie” are turning off some consumers
                                                                            • Troubled economy leads to steep losses
                                                                              • Sales and forecast of refrigerated yogurt drinks
                                                                                • Figure 9: FDMx sales of refrigerated yogurt drinks, 2004-14
                                                                            • Segment Performance—Frozen Yogurt/Tofu

                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                • Frozen yogurt/tofu sales get a boost as recession-stricken Americans look for small luxuries
                                                                                  • New fro-yo retail concepts could benefit frozen yogurt retail sales
                                                                                    • Sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/tofu
                                                                                      • Figure 10: FDMx sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/tofu, 2004-14
                                                                                  • Segment Performance—Shelf Stable Yogurt/Yogurt Mixes

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Following years of gains, sales take a dive in 2009
                                                                                        • Sales and forecast of shelf stable yogurt/yogurt mixes
                                                                                          • Figure 11: FDMx sales and forecast of shelf stable yogurt/yogurt mixes, 2004-14
                                                                                      • Retail Channels

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Supermarkets dominate yogurt sales with a 97% share of FDMx sales
                                                                                            • Sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by channel
                                                                                              • Figure 12: FDMx sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by channel, 2004-09
                                                                                          • Retail Channels—Supermarkets

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Wide selection and introduction of premium private label yogurts help supermarkets maintain their market dominance
                                                                                                • Supermarket/food stores’ sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks
                                                                                                  • Figure 13: Supermarket/food stores’ sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2004-08
                                                                                              • Retail Channels—Natural Foods Supermarkets

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks in the natural channel
                                                                                                    • Figure 14: Natural product supermarket retail sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2007-09*
                                                                                                  • Leading companies/brands
                                                                                                    • Figure 15: Manufacturer brand natural supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, 2007 and 2009
                                                                                                  • Organic vs. non-organic yogurt sales
                                                                                                    • Figure 16: Natural supermarket sales of organic yogurt and yogurt drinks, 2007 and 2009
                                                                                                • Market Drivers

                                                                                                  • Healthy eating trend and awareness of dairy-weight loss connection boost yogurt sales
                                                                                                    • Figure 17: Percentage of population aged 20 and over who are overweight or obese or extremely obese, 1988-2006
                                                                                                  • Consumer concerns over synthetic bovine growth hormone drives change
                                                                                                    • Women are core yogurt users, but usage among men is growing
                                                                                                      • Figure 18: Trends in personal consumption of refrigerated yogurt/yogurt drinks, by gender, Fall 2003 to March 2009
                                                                                                      • Figure 19: Brand usage, by gender, March 2009
                                                                                                  • Leading Companies

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Small, premium brands are stealing share from market leaders Groupe Danone and General Mills
                                                                                                        • Private label growth accelerates
                                                                                                          • FDMx sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks by manufacturer
                                                                                                            • Figure 20: FDMx sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by manufacturer, 2008-09
                                                                                                        • Brand Share—Refrigerated Yogurt

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • General Mills and Groupe Danone dominate the market
                                                                                                              • Small, premium brands leading growth
                                                                                                                • Manufacturer and brand sales of refrigerated yogurt
                                                                                                                  • Figure 21: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of refrigerated yogurt, 2008-09
                                                                                                              • Brand Share—Refrigerated Yogurt Drinks

                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                  • Groupe Danone launches new Activia yogurt drink, grows market share
                                                                                                                    • General Mills, Unilever lose share to small brands
                                                                                                                      • Manufacturer and brand sales of refrigerated yogurt drinks
                                                                                                                        • Figure 22: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of refrigerated yogurt drinks, 2008-09
                                                                                                                    • Brand Share—Frozen Yogurt/Tofu

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Premium and indulgent brands gain market share as recession-weary consumers seek out a little indulgence
                                                                                                                          • Manufacturer and brand sales of frozen yogurt/tofu
                                                                                                                            • Figure 23: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of frozen yogurt/tofu, 2008-09
                                                                                                                        • Brand Share—Shelf Stable Yogurt/Yogurt Mixes

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • Grupo Dilcomer leads market with its Klass drink mixes
                                                                                                                              • Manufacturer and brand sales of shelf stable yogurt/yogurt mixes
                                                                                                                                • Figure 24: Selected FDMx manufacturer and brand sales of shelf stable yogurt/yogurt mixes, 2008-09
                                                                                                                            • Brand Qualities

                                                                                                                                • Chobani
                                                                                                                                  • Fage Total
                                                                                                                                    • The Greek Gods
                                                                                                                                    • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Over 1,200 new yogurt products launched in the U.S. since 2005
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 25: Number of yogurt introductions in the U.S, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 26: Top 10 companies by number of new yogurt products*, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                        • Top 25 product claims for, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 27: top 25 product claims for new yogurt products*, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                        • Organic and natural
                                                                                                                                          • Functional yogurt
                                                                                                                                            • Added fiber
                                                                                                                                              • High protein/Greek-style
                                                                                                                                                • Decadent dessert yogurts
                                                                                                                                                  • Wholegrain
                                                                                                                                                    • Just for kids
                                                                                                                                                    • Advertising and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                      • Dannon spends $136 million in 2008 and boosts spend in 2009
                                                                                                                                                        • Activia
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 28: Dannon Activia television ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                                        • DanActive
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 29: Dannon DanActive television ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                                        • Danimals
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 30: Dannon Danimals Crush Cup television ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                                        • Dannonomics
                                                                                                                                                          • Yoplait
                                                                                                                                                            • Yoplait Original
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 31: Yoplait television ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                                            • Yoplait Light
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 32: Yoplait Light television ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 33: Yoplait Fiber One television ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                                            • Save Lids to Save Lives initiative
                                                                                                                                                            • Consumption of Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks

                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                • Adult consumption of yogurt products, 2003-09
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 34: Trends in personal consumption of yogurt and frozen yogurt, Fall 2003-March 2009
                                                                                                                                                                • Personal consumption of yogurt products, by age
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 35: Yogurt consumption, by type, by age, February 2008-March 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 36: Attitudes towards health and nutrition, by age, February 2008-March 2009
                                                                                                                                                                • Teens’ consumption of yogurt products, 2003-09
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 37: Trends in yogurt consumption (not frozen) among teens, by type and types of mix-ins, Fall 2003-March 2009
                                                                                                                                                                • Kids’ consumption of yogurt products, 2003-09
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 38: Trends in yogurt consumption (not frozen) among children aged 6-11, Fall 2003-December 2008
                                                                                                                                                                • Usage frequency (adults)
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 39: Yogurt usage frequency, by gender, February 2008-March 2009
                                                                                                                                                              • Behavior and Motivations

                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                  • Purchase drivers—health attributes
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 40: Importance of healthy positioning with yogurt and yogurt drinks, by gender, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • Purchase drivers—packaging, price and other attributes
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 41: Importance of non-health related attributes with yogurt and yogurt drinks, by gender, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • Attitudes towards probiotics and prebiotics
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 42: Consumer awareness and usage of probiotics, by gender, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • Attitudes towards organic yogurt by gender
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 43: Attitudes towards organic yogurt, by gender, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • Attitudes towards organic yogurt by age
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 44: Attitudes towards organic yogurt, by age, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                • Private Label and Economy Packaging

                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 45: Consumer attitudes towards yogurt/yogurt drinks, by gender, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Consumer attitudes towards yogurt/yogurt drinks, by gender, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                • Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                    • Consumption of yogurt products
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Yogurt consumption, by type, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2008-March 2009
                                                                                                                                                                    • Purchase drivers—health attributes
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 48: Importance of healthy positioning with yogurt and yogurt drinks, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                    • Purchase drivers—packaging, price and other attributes
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 49: Importance of non-health related attributes with yogurt and yogurt drinks, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                    • Attitudes towards organic yogurt
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 50: Attitudes towards organic yogurt, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                    • Attitudes towards probiotics and prebiotics
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 51: Consumer awareness and usage of prebiotics and probiotics, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • Cluster Analysis

                                                                                                                                                                      • Yo-Yos
                                                                                                                                                                        • Low Cultures
                                                                                                                                                                          • High Cultures
                                                                                                                                                                            • Cluster characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 52: Yogurt clusters, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 53: Types of yogurt consumed, by yogurt clusters, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 54: Frequency of yogurt consumption, by yogurt clusters, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 55: Consumer attitudes towards yogurt/yogurt drinks, by yogurt clusters, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 56: Consumer attitudes towards yogurt/yogurt drinks, by yogurt clusters, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                            • Cluster demographics
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 57: Yogurt clusters, by gender, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 58: Yogurt clusters, by age group, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 59: Yogurt clusters, by income group, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 60: Yogurt clusters, by race, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 61: Yogurt clusters. by Hispanic origin, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                            • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                                                                            • Custom Consumer Groups

                                                                                                                                                                              • Affluent households are key target for yogurt makers
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 62: Yogurt consumption, by household type, by Mosaic Group, February 2008-March 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                • Rural, working class households are least likely to use yogurt
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 63: Yogurt consumption, by household type, by Mosaic Group, February 2008-March 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Usage frequency
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 64: Yogurt usage frequency, by household type, by Mosaic Group, February 2008-March 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Brand preferences—refrigerated yogurt
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 65: Yogurt brand preferences, by household type, by Mosaic Group, February 2008-March 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • IRI/Builders—Key Household Purchase Measures

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Overview of yogurt
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Refrigerated yogurt
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Penetration approaching 80% of households, with Yoplait and store brands leaders
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 66: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated yogurt, buying rate by household penetration, 2008*
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 67: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated yogurt, by household penetration, 2008*
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Refrigerated yogurt drinks
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • With low household penetration, yogurt drinks are purchased less than four times a year
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 68: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated yogurt drinks, buying rate by household penetration, 2008*
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 69: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated yogurt drinks, by household penetration, 2008*
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix: IRI/Builders Panel Data Definitions

                                                                                                                                                                                                        • IRI Consumer Network Metrics
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix: Other Useful Tables

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Attitudes towards prebiotics and probiotics by gender
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 70: Consumer awareness and usage of prebiotics and probiotics, by gender, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Attitudes towards prebiotics and probiotics by age
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 71: Consumer awareness and usage of prebiotics and probiotics, by age, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Purchase drivers by age
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 72: Importance of healthy positioning with yogurt and yogurt drinks, by age, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Purchase driver by age
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 73: Importance of key attributes with yogurt and yogurt drinks, by age, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Yogurt and yogurt drink usage by race/Hispanic origin
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 74: Yogurt and yogurt drinks usage, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Yogurt and yogurt drink usage frequency by race/Hispanic origin
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 75: Frequency of usage of yogurt and yogurt drinks among adults in the household, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Attitudes towards yogurt drinks by race/Hispanic origin
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 76: Attitudes towards yogurt drinks, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix: Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • American Dairy Products Institute (ADPI)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • American Dairy Science Association (ADSA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Ben & Jerry's Homemade Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Bloomberg L.P.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Dannon Co
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Dean Foods Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Dunkin' Brands
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Food and Drug Administration
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • General Mills Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Greenfield Online
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Groupe Danone
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Häagen-Dazs
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Horizon Organic
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • International Dairy Foods Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • International Dairy·Deli·Bakery Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Jamba Juice Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Kraft Foods Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • McCormick & Company, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • McNeil Consumer Nutritionals UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • National Cheese Institute
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • National Dairy Council (NDC)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Nestlé USA
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Safeway Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Smoothie King Franchises Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Stonyfield Farm
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Target Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Trader Joe's Company Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Twitter, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • U.S. Department of Agriculture
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Unilever USA
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Walmart Stores (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Wegmans Food Markets, Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Wells' Dairy, Inc.

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Yogurt - US - November 2009

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