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“Despite the uncertainties surrounding Brexit, the UK economy has only slowed to equate to the growth of the Euro-area, and the Bank of England still anticipates stronger growth than the Euro-area over the next three years. The Brexit-related uncertainties continue, and are now potentially exacerbated by a General Election. They are widely blamed for investment malaise though this fails to take into account the huge change in technology investment that is rapidly transforming from a capital investment to a pay-as-you-go cloud model of computing.
The deterioration in UK productivity growth remains a critical issue, and reduced investment levels are heightening concerns of further problems in the future.
There is clear evidence that the effects of the economic uncertainty is disproportionately affecting the large companies and enterprises, while the SME sector has generally performed better, particularly micro companies with employees.
Construction growth has increasingly become sector specific, as is normal in a slowing economy, but some sectors such as infrastructure and public education and health are now subject to competing promises of increased expenditure by the two major political parties.”
– Terry Leggett, Senior B2B Analyst

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

      • What you need to know
        • Economic overview
          • Business investment
            • Business health
              • Special focus: Construction
                • What’s next?
                • Economic Overview

                  • GDP growth returns in Q3
                    • Figure 1: UK GDP growth rate, 2012 – Q3 2019
                    • Figure 2: GDP growth levels in major EU economies, September 2019 (% annual change)
                  • Bank rate to go up, or down?
                    • Figure 3: Bank rate, by date of adjustment, 2008-18
                  • CPI falls below target
                    • Figure 4: Consumer Price Index, 12-month rate, October 2018 – October 2019
                  • The value of the pound
                    • Weekly earnings still below pre-recession levels
                      • Figure 5: Year-on-year change to average weekly earnings, August 2018 – August 2019
                  • Business Health

                    • SMEs leading turnover growth
                      • Figure 6: Annual UK business turnover by business sector, % change, 2019
                    • Business investment and confidence suffering from uncertainty
                      • Figure 7: UK business investment, £ million, Q1 2015 – Q2 2019
                      • Figure 8: ICAEW UK National Business ConfidenceTM index, Q4 2013 – Q4 2019
                    • Productivity – the UK weakness
                      • Figure 9: Labour productivity, output per hour, Q1 2017-Q2 2019
                      • Figure 10: Turnover per employee, by size of company, start of 2019
                    • Business insolvencies continue recent trend
                      • Figure 11: Company insolvencies in England and Wales, seasonally adjusted, Q2 2017 – Q3 2019
                  • Special Focus: Construction

                      • Figure 12: UK GDP, new construction and R&M growth rate comparison, 2012 – Q3 2019
                    • Housing
                      • Figure 13: UK housing completions, 1949-2018
                    • Private industrial construction
                      • Figure 14: Private industrial construction output, 2012-19
                    • Private commercial construction
                      • Figure 15: Private commercial construction output, 2012-19
                    • Public non-residential construction
                      • Figure 16: Public non-residential construction output, 1992-2019
                    • Infrastructure
                      • Figure 17: New infrastructure output, 1980-2019
                    • R&M
                      • Figure 18: Repair and maintenance output, by sector, 2012-19
                  • What’s Next?

                    • “Not another one”?
                        • Figure 19: Growth achieved by companies, by size, start of 2019
                      • Weak GDP growth projected
                        • Figure 20: Comparison of World, Euro-area and UK GDP forecasts, 2019-22
                        • Figure 21: Forecast UK GDP growth rate, 2019-22
                      • A synchronized slowdown
                        • Figure 22: OECD Business Confidence Index (BCI), October 2016 – October 2019
                      • Falling bond yields signal uncertainty over the global economy
                        • Figure 23: Government bond yields in selected countries, % yield, 17 November 2019
                    • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                        • Abbreviations
                          • Methodology

                          This market report provides in-depth analysis and insight supported by a range of data. At the same time, introductory and top-level content is provided to give you an overview of the issues covered.

                          • Market

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                          • Consumer

                            Mintel's proprietary consumer research provides our analysts with the attitudinal and behavioral data used to provide valuable insight to topical issues.

                          • Brand/Company

                            Mintel provides overviews of the top brands and manufacturers, and uses consumer research to explore attitudes and reactions to brands, as well as insight into what will resonate with consumers.

                          • Data

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                          Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

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