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“Although the UK leaving the EU has created uncertain times, albeit one with opportunities, a longer running issue has been that of productivity levels. Relatively low levels of investment and R&D spending have driven this stagnation and future economic policies must focus around these and ‘upskilling’ the UK workforce.”
– Lewis Cone, Senior B2B Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Annual GDP growth falls to decade low in 2019
  • Bank rate remains at 0.75%... for now
  • CPI rate falls to three-year low…
  • …whilst earnings growth continues to outstrip inflation

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

      • What you need to know
        • Economic overview
          • Business health
            • Special focus: B2B finance
              • What’s next?
              • Economic Overview

                • Annual GDP growth falls to decade low in 2019
                    • Figure 1: Annual GDP growth rate, 2015-2019, (% change)
                  • Bank rate remains at 0.75%... for now
                      • Figure 2: Bank Rate, 2008-2018, by date of adjustment
                    • CPI rate falls to three-year low…
                        • Figure 3: Consumer Price Index, January 2019 - 2020, (12-month Rate)
                      • …whilst earnings growth continues to outstrip inflation
                          • Figure 4: Real average weekly earnings, total pay, January-November 2019, (% monthly change year-on-year, seasonally adjusted)
                      • Business Health

                        • A fifth of small businesses have missed out on opportunities due to a lack of funding
                          • Figure 5: Current finance situation of the business, June 2017 vs June 2018 vs June 2019, (% of respondents)
                        • Business turnover continues to grow in 2019…
                          • Figure 6: UK business turnover, 2019, at the start of the year, by business sector, (£ million)
                        • … Despite insolvencies rising to a six-year high
                            • Figure 7: Underlying company insolvencies in England and Wales, Q3 2017 - Q4 2019, (units, seasonally adjusted)
                          • Business investment levels and private sector profitability both decline
                            • Figure 8: UK PNFCs net rate of return, Q3 2017 - Q3 2019, (% return)
                            • Figure 9: UK total business investment, Q3 2017 - Q3 2019, (chained volume measures and not seasonally-adjusted, £ billion)
                        • Special Focus: B2B Finance

                          • Net lending levels further improve in 2019…
                              • Figure 10: UK MFIs’ net loans to non-financial businesses, Q1 2018 - Q4 2019, by size of business, (£ million, not seasonally adjusted)
                            • … Although credit availability continues to fall
                              • Figure 11: Availability of corporate credit to PNFCs in the past three months, Q4 2017 - Q4 2019, by business size, (net percentage balance)
                            • Write-offs on loans to NFCs rise for first time in four years in 2018 but likely to have fallen in 2019
                              • Figure 12: Write offs of loans to PNFCs from banks and building societies, Q3 2017 - Q3 2019, (£ million, not seasonally adjusted)
                          • What’s Next?

                            • Business confidence bounces back from decade-low point
                              • Figure 13: Business confidence index, Q4 2018 - Q1 2020, (index figure)
                            • General consensus implies weaker economic growth in 2020 and beyond
                              • Purchasing Managers’ Index Surveys
                                • Stagnating productivity represents the greatest hurdle to overcome
                                • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                    • Abbreviations

                                    This market report provides in-depth analysis and insight supported by a range of data. At the same time, introductory and top-level content is provided to give you an overview of the issues covered.

                                    • Market

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                                    • Consumer

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                                    • Brand/Company

                                      Mintel provides overviews of the top brands and manufacturers, and uses consumer research to explore attitudes and reactions to brands, as well as insight into what will resonate with consumers.

                                    • Data

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                                    Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

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