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Bacon and Lunchmeat - US - October 2019

"The bacon and lunch meat category continues to experience slow and modest 0.5% annual growth, reaching $19.8 billion in 2019. Bacon and lunch meat remain a household staple, although consumption is lower among small households, especially among women without children, seniors, and consumers aged 18-24. Amid protein-centric nutritionally focused lifestyles, premium positioning and claims are resonating, and growth in the category will stem from unconventional occasions and uses like snacking."
- Kaitlin Kamp, Food & Drink Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Private label takes no prisoners
  • Attrition rates beating increased consumption
  • Category stuck in traditional usage

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • Key takeaways
          • The issues
            • Private label takes no prisoners
              • Figure 1: Multi-outlet sales of private label bacon and lunch meat, % sales change and % market share change, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
            • Attrition rates beating increased consumption
              • Figure 2: Bacon and lunch meat attitudes, August 2019
            • Category stuck in traditional usage
              • Figure 3: Bacon and lunch meat occasions, August 2019
            • The opportunities
              • Snacking a solution in more ways than one
                • Figure 4: Snacking frequency, January 2015 and November 2018
              • Authenticity and quality in demand
                • Figure 5: Innovation to drive bacon and lunch meat purchase, August 2019
              • Create loyalty among unengaged consumers
                • Figure 6: Repertoire bacon and lunch meat attitudes by consumption, I typically purchase the same brands, August 2019
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Lunch meat losses and bacon’s gains slow down
                • New protein perceptions require shifts
                  • Average age increase may require brands to retap into disengaged audiences
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Bacon and lunch meat remain stable
                      • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of bacon and lunch meat, at current prices, 2014-24
                      • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of bacon and lunch meat, at current prices, 2014-24
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Refrigerated lunch meat losses flat line
                      • Shelf stable gains are comparatively small, but strong
                        • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of lunch meat, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
                      • Bacon growth slows pace
                        • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated bacon, at current prices, 2014-24
                    • Market Perspective

                      • Protein prevails
                        • Figure 11: Percentage of food products with high/added protein claims, 2014-18
                      • Good vs bad protein debate gets ethical
                        • Figure 12: Whole Foods Video
                      • Plant-based shakes up the protein space
                        • Figure 13: Dietary preferences, February 2019
                      • Cutting carbs mean cutting sandwiches
                        • Figure 14: Reasons for decreased consumption, April 2018
                      • Snacking is a versatile opportunity
                        • Figure 15: Snacking frequency, January 2015 and November 2018
                    • Market Factors

                      • Processed meats villainized
                        • African swine fever complicates already unstable trade war markets
                          • Average age increase an issue and opportunity for brands
                            • Figure 16: Population by age, 2013-23
                        • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                          • Dominant Kraft losing grip
                            • Private label chipping away at brand share
                              • Premium cuts take the stage
                                • “Natural” branding can go only so far
                                  • Plant-based products grow in availability
                                  • Company and Brand Sales of Bacon and Lunch Meat

                                    • Kraft retains category dominance, while Land O’ Frost flounders
                                      • Smithfield the breakout star in refrigerated lunch meat
                                        • Tyson grows its share
                                          • Figure 17: Multi-outlet sales of bacon and lunch meat, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                          • Figure 18: Multi-outlet sales of bacon and lunch meat, by leading companies, market share, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                        • Private label continues to chip away at brand leaders
                                          • Figure 19: Multi-outlet sales of private label bacon and lunch meat, % sales change and % market share change, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                      • What’s Working?

                                        • Bringing the butcher to the aisle
                                          • Figure 20: Bacon and lunch meat brands with premium and thick cut products, MULO sales 52 weeks, August 2018-19
                                        • The proof is in the packaging
                                          • Figure 21: Bacon and lunch meat brands with claim-heavy packaging, MULO sales 52 weeks, August 2018-19
                                          • Figure 22: Bacon and lunch meat claims present on packaging, percent change from 2017-18
                                        • Snack-ready formatting
                                          • Figure 23: Bacon and lunch meat brands with snack packaging, MULO sales 52 weeks, August 2018-19
                                        • Authenticity elevates private label
                                          • Figure 24: Bacon and lunch meat brands with regional positioning, MULO sales 52 weeks, August 2018-19
                                      • What’s Struggling?

                                        • Natural claims can’t carry a product
                                          • Figure 25: Bacon and lunch meat brands with natural positioning, MULO sales 52 weeks, August 2018-19
                                        • Packaging especially critical for value brands
                                          • Figure 26: Bacon and lunch meat brands with natural positioning, MULO sales 52 weeks, August 2018-19
                                      • What’s Next?

                                        • Plant-based products grow in availability
                                          • Figure 27: Plant-based bacon and lunch meat brands
                                        • “Slow-growth,” “barn-free” and “crate free” the claims to watch
                                        • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                          • More people decreasing than increasing consumption
                                            • Consumption frequency has not peaked
                                              • A break from traditional uses is needed
                                                • It’s a convenience category
                                                • Bacon and Lunch Meat Consumption

                                                  • Bacon and lunch meat penetration remains strong
                                                    • No protein type dominates consumption
                                                      • Figure 28: Bacon and lunch meat consumption, net, August 2019
                                                    • Deli vs prepackaged divide is small
                                                      • Figure 29: Bacon and lunch meat consumption, August 2019
                                                    • Quality, convenience and adventure all motivators
                                                      • Figure 30: Bacon and lunch meat consumption, August 2019
                                                    • Households with 3+ children the most engaged
                                                      • Figure 31: Repertoire bacon and lunch meat consumption, by number of children including 18+ per household, August 2019
                                                    • Men consume more than women, especially non-moms
                                                      • Figure 32: Net bacon and lunch meat consumption, by parental status by gender, August 2019
                                                    • Consumers 55+ finding protein elsewhere
                                                      • Figure 33: Net bacon and lunch meat consumption, by age, August 2019
                                                  • Bacon and Lunch Meat Consumption Frequency

                                                    • Opportunity to increase daily consumption
                                                      • Figure 34: Bacon and lunch meat consumption frequency, August 2019
                                                    • Pork bacon struggles to permeate past monthly consumption
                                                      • Poultry leads consumption frequency
                                                        • Figure 35: Net bacon and lunch meat consumption frequency, once a week, August 2019
                                                      • Parents the most frequent consumers
                                                        • Figure 36: Bacon and lunch meat consumption frequency, by parental status, August 2019
                                                      • Consumption frequency varies by age
                                                        • Figure 37: Bacon and lunch meat consumption frequency, by age, August 2019
                                                    • Bacon and Lunch Meat Attributes

                                                      • Claims the proverbial lipstick on a pig?
                                                        • Figure 38: Bacon and lunch meat attributes, August 2019
                                                      • Attributes sought differs by protein type
                                                        • Pork eaters don’t expect ham and bacon to be healthy
                                                          • Figure 39: Bacon and lunch meat attributes by net consumption, any ham or bacon, August 2019
                                                        • Healthier proteins warrant more claims
                                                          • Figure 40: Bacon and lunch meat attributes by net consumption, any turkey or chicken, August 2019
                                                        • Roast beef products primed for increased claims
                                                          • Figure 41: Bacon and lunch meat attributes by net consumption, any roast beef, August 2019
                                                        • TURF Analysis
                                                          • Figure 42: TURF Analysis – Important attributes, July 2019
                                                          • Figure 43: Bacon and lunch meat attributes, by age, August 2019
                                                        • Parents more receptive to wellness claims
                                                          • Figure 44: Bacon and lunch meat attributes, by parental status, August 2019
                                                      • Bacon and Lunch Meat Usage

                                                        • Breaking from tradition
                                                          • Breaking up with bread
                                                            • Figure 45: Bacon and lunch meat occasions, August 2019
                                                          • Unengaged consumers most strongly tied to conventional usage
                                                            • Figure 46: Bacon and lunch meat occasions, parental status by gender, August 2019
                                                          • Snacking an opportunity to expand consumption
                                                            • Figure 47: Snacking frequency, January 2015 and November 2018
                                                            • Figure 48: Share of snacking, by age, November 2018
                                                        • Bacon and Lunch Meat Attitudes

                                                          • Brand loyalty remains strong among heavy users
                                                            • Figure 49: Bacon and lunch meat attitudes, August 2019
                                                            • Figure 50: Repertoire bacon and lunch meat attitudes by consumption, I typically purchase the same brands, August 2019
                                                          • Everyone can agree on convenience
                                                            • Figure 51: Bacon and lunch meat attitudes by consumption, I buy them because they are convenient, August 2019
                                                          • Women without children consuming less, likely due to health concerns
                                                            • Figure 52: Bacon and lunch meat attitudes, parental status by gender, August 2019
                                                        • Increased Purchase Drivers

                                                          • Consumers satisfied with the status quo
                                                            • Figure 53: Innovation to drive bacon and lunch meat purchase, August 2019
                                                          • Quality and packaging go hand-in-hand
                                                            • Figure 54: Innovation to drive bacon and lunch meat purchase, consumption repertoire, August 2019
                                                          • Younger adults crave snack formatting
                                                            • Figure 55: Innovation to drive bacon and lunch meat purchase, snack-sized packaging, August 2019
                                                          • Older consumers hard to sway
                                                            • Figure 56: Innovation to drive bacon and lunch meat purchase by age, none of the above, August 2019
                                                        • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                          • Data sources
                                                            • Sales data
                                                              • Fan chart forecast
                                                                • Consumer survey data
                                                                  • Behavioral data
                                                                    • Food and Drink Segmentation
                                                                      • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                        • Abbreviations
                                                                        • Appendix – The Market

                                                                            • Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of bacon and lunch meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                            • Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of bacon and lunch meat, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                            • Figure 59: Total US retail sales of bacon and lunch meat, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
                                                                            • Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated bacon, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                            • Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated lunch meat, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                            • Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated lunch meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                            • Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable lunch meats, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                            • Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable lunch meats, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                        • Appendix – Retail Channels

                                                                            • Figure 65: Total US retail sales of bacon and lunch meat, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                            • Figure 66: Total US retail sales of bacon and lunch meat, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
                                                                            • Figure 67: US supermarket sales of bacon and lunch meat, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                            • Figure 68: US sales of bacon and lunch meat through other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                        • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                            • Figure 69: Multi-outlet sales of bacon, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                                                            • Figure 70: Multi-outlet sales of refrigerated lunch meat, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                                                            • Figure 71: Multi-outlet sales of shelf-stable lunch meat, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019

                                                                        Bacon and Lunchmeat - US - October 2019

                                                                        £3,435.47 (Excl.Tax)