“The US baking and dessert mixes category experienced flat sales in 2013 and 2014 at $2.7 billion. Sales are forecast to remain flat in 2015 and decline to $2.5 billion by 2019. Concerns about the health impact of eating too many baked goods are negatively impacting sales. Additionally, recovering consumer confidence means more people will spend on dining out rather than cooking and baking at home. When marketing to families brands must focus on providing more products using premium, natural, and BFY (better-for-you) ingredients. Emphasizing premium ingredients will also appeal to the 44% of respondents who say they buy mixes because they taste good.”
- Amy Kraushaar, US Category Manager, Food & Drink
This report answers the following questions:
- What consumer groups are most likely to use baking/dessert mixes?
- Can mix brands overcome perceptions of unhealthiness?
- How can mix brands compete with RTE, packaged brands?
The US baking and dessert mixes category experienced flat sales in 2013 and 2014, when it reached $2.7 billion. Flat sales are forecasted for 2015, and by 2019 sales are projected to decline to $2.5 billion.
Poor sales performance is driven mostly by health concerns; more than a quarter of consumers say they are using less mixes or none at all compared to a year ago because they are unhealthy. Further, recovering consumer confidence is spurring some consumers to spend more on dining out and on packaged baked goods, which negatively impacts sales of baking/dessert mixes.
Additionally, an overall lack of innovation leaves consumers with few reasons to increase interest in the category. However, data from Mintel’s custom online survey seems to contradict sluggish sales, reporting a higher likelihood for households with children to use some types of baking/dessert mixes and a wide variety of them.
This indicates that brands must focus on families and the product attributes they perceive as important to slow down forecasted sales declines. This includes occasion-specific products, natural and premium ingredients, reduced fat/sugar/calories, and a number of different recipes provided on packaging.
This report features analysis of these factors, as well as examination of the following:
- The competitive threat represented by packaged baked good/dessert brands and baking from scratch
- Why pancake and other mixes manage growth as all other segments decline
- Company and brand analysis and why the three leading companies are all declining
- Analysis of consumer behaviors and attitudes toward baking/dessert mixes, including usage compared to a year ago, reasons for using/buying, important purchase factors, and reasons for not using baking/dessert mixes.
For the purposes of this report, baking and dessert mixes are covered as per the following definitions:
- Cake/pie mixes
- Pudding/gelatin mixes
- Brownie mixes
- Bread/muffin mixes
- Pancake mixes
- Prepared pie crusts
- Other mixes