Baking and Dessert Mixes - US - August 2014

Scope and Themes

• What you need to know
• Definition
• Data sources
• Sales data
• Consumer survey data
• Abbreviations and terms
• Abbreviations

Executive Summary

• Overview
• Flat category in 2014
  • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
• Cake/pie mixes lead segments; most segments decline
  • Figure 2: MULO sales of baking and dessert mixes at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks, 2014
• Key players
• The consumer
• Respondents most apt to use pancake, cake, and brownie mix once a month or more
  • Figure 3: Types of baking/dessert mixes used – once a month or more, June 2014
• Respondents very likely to be baking from scratch, using RTE items the same amount or more than last year
  • Figure 4: Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago – any same amount or more often, June 2014
• Most use mixes for taste and convenience
  • Figure 5: Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes, June 2014
• Most say preferred brand is important; premium, BFY attributes also important
  • Figure 6: Any important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes, June 2014
• What we think

Issues and Insights

• What consumer groups are most likely to use baking/dessert mixes?
• Insight: Brands must target specific demographics
• Can mix brands overcome perceptions of unhealthiness?
• Insight: BFY versions will help overcome unhealthy perceptions
• How can mix brands compete with RTE, packaged brands?
• Insight: Mix brands should focus on freshness, flavor

Trend Applications

• Trend: Minimize Me
• Trend: Non-Standard Society

Market Size and Forecast

• Key points
• Sales and forecast of baking and dessert mixes
  • Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
  • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
• Flat sales as consumers bake at home less
  • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
• Forecast methodology

Market Drivers

• Key points
• Health considerations limit usage
  • Figure 10: Reasons for not using baking/dessert mixes or using less frequently, June 2014
• Obesity epidemic likely factors into declining sales
  • Figure 11: Percentage of men aged 20 or older who are obese, 2001-04, 2005-08, 2009-12
  • Figure 12: Percentage of women aged 20 or older who are obese, 2001-04, 2005-08, 2009-12
• Recovering consumer confidence spurs more dining out, packaged purchases
  • Figure 13: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2004-14
  • Figure 14: U.S. unemployment rate, 2004-14
• Presence of children drives usage; parents prefer natural, low sugar/fat
  • Figure 15: Types of baking/dessert mixes used – once a month or more, by presence of children in household, June 2014
• Moms likely do most of the household baking
  • Figure 16: Household usage of store-bought dry pancake and waffle, cake (not cake flour), brownie, and other mixes (including bread mixes), by moms with children in household, January 2013-March 2014

Competitive Context

• Packaged pudding, gelatin, baked goods pose a threat for mix brands
  • Figure 17: Household consumption of packaged pudding; flavored gelatin desserts; snack cakes (ready-to-eat); and frozen dessert cakes, muffins, pastries, and pies, by age, January 2013-March 2014
• • Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19
• Less-affluent respondents most likely to eat RTE snack cakes and frozen baked goods
  • Figure 19: Household consumption of snack cakes (ready-to-eat), by household income, January 2013-March 2014
• Packaged vs. mix product household consumption frequency
  • Figure 20: Number of individual servings of snacks cakes (ready-to-eat) eaten in household last 30 days, January 2013-March 2014
• In-store bakeries take sales away from mix brands
  • Figure 21: Total US sales and forecast of in-store bakery items, at current prices, 2009-19

Segment Performance

• Key points
• Most segments decline
• Sales of baking and dessert mixes, by segment
  • Figure 22: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
• Sales and forecast of cake/pie mixes
  • Figure 23: Total US retail sales and forecast of cake/pie mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
• Sales and forecast of pudding/gelatin mixes
  • Figure 24: Total US retail sales and forecast of pudding/gelatin mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
• Sales and forecast of pancake/waffle/French toast mixes
  • Figure 25: Total US retail sales and forecast of pancake/waffle/French toast mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
• Sales and forecast of bread/muffin mixes
  • Figure 26: Total US retail sales and forecast of bread/muffin mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
• Sales and forecast of brownie mixes
  • Figure 27: Total US retail sales and forecast of brownie mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
• Sales and forecast of other mixes
  • Figure 28: Total US retail sales and forecast of other mixes*, at current prices, 2009-19

Retail Channels

• Key points
• Supermarkets comprise 67% share of baking/dessert mix sales
• Sales of baking and dessert mixes, by channel
  • Figure 29: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
• Supermarkets lead but decline as mass merchandisers offer better value
  • Figure 30: US supermarket sales of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2009-14
• Other channels register solid growth between 2011 and 2014
  • Figure 31: U.S. other channel sales of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2009-14

Leading Companies

• Key points
• Three leading companies all decline through MULO channels in 2014
• Manufacturer sales of baking and dessert mixes
  • Figure 32: MULO sales of baking and dessert mixes at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks, 2013 and 2014

Brand Share – Cake/Pie Mixes

• Key points
• Betty Crocker, Pillsbury decline; Duncan Hines increases 3.6%
• Manufacturer sales of cake/pie mixes
  • Figure 33: MULO sales of cake/pie mixes, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
• Brand loyalty highest for Betty Crocker, but private label rivals all brands
  • Figure 34: Key purchase measures for top cake/cupcake/pie mix brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)

Brand Share – Pudding/Gelatin Mixes

• Key points
• JELL-O leads segment by a wide margin but declines more than 3%
• Manufacturer sales of pudding/gelatin mixes
  • Figure 35: MULO sales of pudding/gelatin mixes, 2013 and 2014
• JELL-O has most brand loyalty but private label loyalty also high
  • Figure 36: Key purchase measures for top pudding/pie filling/mousse mix brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)

Brand Share – Pancake/Waffle/French Toast Mixes

• Key points
• Krusteaz, Hungry Jack grow as other brands flatline or decline
• Manufacturer sales of pancake/waffle/French toast mixes
  • Figure 37: MULO sales of pancake/waffle/French toast mixes, 2013 and 2014

Brand Share – Brownie Mixes

• Key points
• All leading MULO brands decline
• Manufacturer sales of brownie mixes
  • Figure 38: MULO sales of brownie mixes, 2013 and 2014
• Despite not being a leading brand, Ghirardelli maintains most brand loyalty
  • Figure 39: Key purchase measures for top brownie mix brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)

Brand Share – Bread/Muffin Mixes

• Key points
• Flat to declining sales for most brands
• Manufacturer sales of bread/muffin mixes
  • Figure 40: MULO sales of bread/muffin mixes, 2013 and 2014
• Jiffy experiences highest level of brand loyalty
  • Figure 41: Key purchase measures for top bread/muffin mix brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)

Brand Share – Other Mixes

• Key points
• Betty Crocker comprises more than half of the segment but declines 5%
• Manufacturer sales of other mixes
  • Figure 42: MULO sales of other mixes, 2013 and 2014
• Buyers most loyal to Betty Crocker baking mixes
  • Figure 43: Key purchase measures for top other mix brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)

Innovations and Innovators

• Environmentally friendly packaging, ease of use, lead claims
  • Figure 44: Top 10 baking ingredients and mixes claims, by percentage of total claims, 2009-13
• Ease of use likely to attract consumers looking for convenience
• Premium ingredients important to a majority of buyers
• Gluten-free claims increase significantly between 2012 and 2013

Marketing Strategies

• Overview of the brand landscape
• Theme: Brands use social media to foster community of home bakers
• Brand example: Betty Crocker
• Brand example: Duncan Hines
• Brand example: Pillsbury

Types of Baking and Dessert Mixes Used

• Key points
• Most use pancake mix frequently
  • Figure 45: Types of baking/dessert mixes used, June 2014
• 25-34 most likely to use monthly or more; monthly usage declines with age
  • Figure 46: Types of baking/dessert mixes used – Once a month or more, by age, June 2014
• Less than $25K report least likelihood to use monthly or more
  • Figure 47: Types of baking/dessert mixes used – Once a month or more, by household income, June 2014

Usage and Purchases of Baked Goods/Mixes Compared to a Year Ago

• Key points
• Respondents most likely to be baking from scratch more than a year ago
• • Figure 48: Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago, June 2014
• 18-44 most likely to report more/same usage compared to a year ago
  • Figure 49: Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago – same amount or more often, by age, June 2014
• Presence of children means more baking, baked good usage
  • Figure 50: Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago – same amount or more often, by presence of children in household, June 2014

Reasons for Using Baking/Dessert Mixes

• Key points
• Flavor, convenience leading reasons for using baking/dessert mixes
• • Figure 51: Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes, by gender, June 2014
• 55+ most focused on convenience
  • Figure 52: Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes, by age, June 2014
• Households with kids most likely to use mixes because they like to bake
  • Figure 53: Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes, by presence of children in household, June 2014

Reasons for Buying Baking/Dessert Mixes

• Key points
• Respondents most likely to buy favorite flavor, preferred brand
  • Figure 54: Reasons for buying baking/dessert mixes, by age, June 2014
• Households with kids most likely to buy for special occasions
• • Figure 55: Reasons for buying baking/dessert mixes, by presence of children in household, June 2014

Important Factors in Buying Baking/Dessert Mixes

• Key points
• Preferred brand, occasion suitability most important purchase factors
• • Figure 56: Important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes, June 2014
• 25-34 most likely to cite healthy attributes as important
  • Figure 57: Any important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes, by age, June 2014
• Households with kids most likely to cite numerous attributes as important
  • Figure 58: Any important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes, by presence of children in household, June 2014

Reasons for Not Using Baking/Dessert Mixes or Using Them Less Frequently

• Key points
• Three in 10 are cutting back on baked goods/desserts
  • Figure 59: Reasons for not using baking/dessert mixes or using less frequently, by age, June 2014

Race and Hispanic Origin

• Key points
• Blacks, Asians, Hispanics most likely to use mixes monthly or more
  • Figure 60: Types of baking/dessert mixes used – once a month or more, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
• Hispanics most likely to be using same amount/more competing products
  • Figure 61: Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago – same amount or more often, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
• Blacks, Hispanics most apt to say premium ingredients are important
  • Figure 62: Any important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014

Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables

• Types of baking and dessert mixes used
  • Figure 63: Types of baking/dessert mixes used – once a month or more, by gender, June 2014
• Brands used
  • Figure 64: Brands of dry pancake and waffle mixes used in household, January 2013-March 2014
• • Figure 65: Brands of dry cake mixes used in household, January 2013-March 2014
• • Figure 66: Brands of dry brownie mixes used in household, January 2013-March 2014
• • Figure 67: Brands of other baking mixes used in the household, January 2013-March 2014
• Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago
  • Figure 68: Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago – same amount or more often, by household income, June 2014
• Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes
  • Figure 69: Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes, by age, June 2014
• Reasons for buying baking/dessert mixes
  • Figure 70: Reasons for buying baking/dessert mixes, by household income, June 2014
• Important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes
  • Figure 71: Any important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes, by household income, June 2014
• Reasons for not using baking/dessert mixes or using them less frequently
  • Figure 72: Reasons for not using baking/dessert mixes or using less frequently, by gender, June 2014
• Race/Hispanic origin
  • Figure 73: Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014

Appendix – Information Resources Inc. Builders Panel Data Definitions

• Information Resources Inc. Consumer Network Metrics

Appendix – Trade Associations