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Baking and Dessert Mixes - US - February 2018

The market for baking and dessert mixes is a large one, valued at nearly $4 billion. However, it continues to shrink, following a pattern that has endured for much of the past decade. That lack of growth is not necessarily the result of consumer dissatisfaction, but it is resulting more from a consumer interest in options that are even more convenient and easy – namely, options from stand-alone and in-store bakeries.

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Shrinking household size affecting one of the category’s key demographics: families
  • Weak category penetration and frequency
  • Even users are using mixes less than a year ago
  • Familiarity proves a notable influence

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Shrinking household size affecting one of the category’s key demographics: families
            • Weak category penetration and frequency
              • Figure 1: Usage, November 2017
            • Even users are using mixes less than a year ago
              • Figure 2: Change in usage, November 2017
            • Familiarity proves a notable influence
              • Figure 3: Purchase influence, November 2017
            • The opportunities
              • Leveraging interest in from-scratch baking
                • Figure 4: Reasons for not using, November 2017
              • Mix users cite flavor and quality behind their choice
                • Figure 5: Important attributes, November 2017
              • Leveraging the familiar
                • What it means
                • The Market – What You Need to Know

                  • Baking/dessert mix sales struggle
                    • Baking supplies hold greatest market share
                      • Competition leverages greater degrees of convenience and ease
                        • Traditional category user base shrinking
                        • Market Size and Forecast

                          • Category braced for further declines
                            • Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2012-22
                            • Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2012-22
                        • Market Breakdown

                          • Baking supplies command largest market share
                            • Figure 8: Sales of baking and dessert mixes, by segment, 2017
                          • Bread/cookie mix sales fall steadily
                            • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of bread and cookie mixes, at current prices, 2012-22
                          • Cake mix sales plummet, though losses will slow
                            • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of cake and pastry mixes, at current prices, 2012-22
                          • Flat pancake mix sales should rebound
                            • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of pancake/French toast/waffle mixes, at current prices, 2012-22
                          • Falling frosting sales
                            • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of frosting, at current prices, 2012-22
                          • Baking supply sales steady, but stagnant
                            • Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking supplies, at current prices, 2012-22
                        • Market Perspective

                          • In-store bakeries to see sales increases
                            • Figure 14: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakery products, in millions, at current prices, 2012-22
                          • Focus on health, particularly among Millennials
                            • Figure 15: Attitudes toward food, by generation, April 2017
                        • Market Factors

                          • Household sizes slowly shrinking
                            • Figure 16: US households, by percentage of total US households, 1960-2017
                          • Rising disposable income could lead to more fresh-baked interest
                            • Figure 17: Disposable Personal Income change from previous period, January 2007-November 2017
                        • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                          • Some successes amid an overall sales slump
                            • Price deterring some from frosting launches
                              • Leveraging familiar
                              • Company and Brand Sales of Baking and Dessert Mixes

                                • Sales slump hitting category’s major brands
                                  • Sales of baking and desserts mixes by company
                                    • Figure 18: Multi-outlet sales of baking and dessert mixes, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                • What’s Working?

                                  • Brownies’ biggest success shows the benefit of leveraging decadence
                                    • Figure 19: Duncan Hines Decadent line, 2017
                                    • Figure 20: Consumer attribute ratings for the Duncan Hines Decadent line, 2017
                                • What’s Struggling?

                                  • Icing/frosting sales falter
                                    • Figure 21: Notable frosting launches, 2017
                                • What’s Next?

                                  • Leveraging familiarity
                                  • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                    • Mix users skew younger
                                      • More consumers do not use mixes at all than are using them more than a year ago
                                        • Flavor remains paramount
                                          • Nonusers not avoiding baked goods
                                            • Potential in leveraging customizability
                                              • Consumers embrace the familiar in baking mixes
                                                • Younger consumers like baking
                                                  • Clean-up and lack of equipment may hinder usage
                                                    • Users tend to use multiple types of mixes
                                                    • Usages of Baking and Dessert Mixes

                                                      • Brownie, cake mixes most used, but almost a third of consumers are not using baking mixes
                                                        • Figure 22: Usage, November 2017
                                                      • Younger consumers much more likely to use mixes
                                                        • Figure 23: Usage, by age, November 2017
                                                      • Presence and number of children correlate strongly with mix use
                                                        • Figure 24: Usage, by number of children in household, November 2017
                                                      • Hispanic Millennials much more likely to turn to mixes
                                                        • Figure 25: Usage of dessert mixes, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
                                                    • Change in Usage

                                                      • Sixth of consumers baking from scratch more often than a year ago
                                                        • Figure 26: Change in usage, November 2017
                                                      • Women notably more likely than men to be using mixes less often
                                                        • Figure 27: Change in usage, by gender, November 2017
                                                      • Younger consumers more likely to be using mixes more
                                                        • Figure 28: Change in usage, by gender, November 2017
                                                      • Fifth of non-parents not using mixes
                                                        • Figure 29: Change in usage, by parental status, November 2017
                                                      • A quarter of Hispanic Millennials using mixes less often or not at all
                                                        • Figure 30: Change in usage, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
                                                      • Pie, cupcake mix users turning to store-bought mixes more often
                                                        • Figure 31: Change in usage, by usage, November 2017
                                                    • Important Attributes

                                                      • Flavor resonates strongly among consumers
                                                        • Figure 32: Important attributes, November 2017
                                                      • Premium resonates more with older consumers; price more with younger demographics
                                                        • Figure 33: Important attributes, by age, November 2017
                                                      • Natural ingredient claims resonate more with parents of younger children
                                                        • Figure 34: Important attributes, by presence and age of children, November 2017
                                                      • Premium quality factors strongly among higher-income groups
                                                        • Figure 35: Important attributes, by household income, November 2017
                                                      • Hispanic consumers much more likely to seek natural ingredient claims
                                                        • Figure 36: Important health-related attributes, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
                                                      • Premium quality, brand impact cupcake mix choice
                                                        • Figure 37: Important attributes, by usage, November 2017
                                                      • Top five attributes form a nearly universally popular result
                                                        • Figure 38: TURF analysis – Important attributes, November 2017
                                                    • Reasons for Not Using Mixes

                                                      • Nonusers more likely to bake from scratch or opt for ready-to-eat baked goods
                                                        • Figure 39: Reasons for not using, November 2017
                                                      • Women, particularly married women, more likely to indicate they bake from scratch rather than use mixes
                                                        • Figure 40: Reasons for not using, by gender and marital status, November 2017
                                                    • Reasons for Use

                                                      • Mixes could leverage ease of use and customizability
                                                        • Figure 41: Reasons for use, November 2017
                                                      • Ease of use of notable interest to women
                                                        • Figure 42: Reasons for use, by gender, November 2017
                                                      • Hispanic consumers notably more likely to share baked goods
                                                        • Figure 43: Reasons for use of store-bought baking mixes, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
                                                    • Purchase Influence

                                                      • Familiarity proves a notable influence
                                                        • Figure 44: Purchase influence, November 2017
                                                      • Package, equipment concerns resonate among younger consumers
                                                        • Figure 45: Purchase influence, by age, November 2017
                                                      • Familiarity less compelling to Hispanic consumers
                                                        • Figure 46: Purchase influence, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
                                                      • Trust influences most mix types
                                                        • Figure 47: Purchase influence, by usage, November 2017
                                                      • Familiar options’ opportunity for adding mix-ins
                                                        • Figure 48: Purchase influence, by important attributes, November 2017
                                                    • Baking Opinions

                                                      • Consumers tend to enjoy baking
                                                        • Figure 49: Baking opinions, November 2017
                                                      • Women, parents much more likely to enjoy baking
                                                        • Figure 50: Baking opinions, by gender, November 2017
                                                        • Figure 51: Baking opinions, by presence and number of children, November 2017
                                                      • Enjoyment of baking not necessarily associated with a preference for from-scratch baking
                                                        • Figure 52: Baking opinions, by age, November 2017
                                                      • Hispanic Millennials much more likely to enjoy baking, to seek recognizable ingredients
                                                        • Figure 53: Baking opinions, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
                                                    • Negative Baking Opinions

                                                      • Clean-up a deterrent to baking from scratch
                                                        • Figure 54: Negative baking opinions, November 2017
                                                      • Clean-up, lack of equipment concerns for younger consumers
                                                        • Figure 55: Negative baking opinions, by age, November 2017
                                                      • Clean-up concerns for Hispanic Millennials
                                                        • Figure 56: Negative baking opinions, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
                                                    • Repertoire Analysis

                                                      • Half of consumers use multiple types of baking mixes
                                                        • Figure 57: Repertoire of usage frequency, November 2017
                                                      • Younger consumers more likely to use multiple types of mixes
                                                        • Figure 58: Repertoire of usage frequency, by age, parental status, and number of children in household, November 2017
                                                      • Mix loyalists more likely to seek quality, and brand; gluten-free users turn to many types of mixes
                                                        • Figure 59: Important attributes, by repertoire of usage frequency, November 2017
                                                    • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                      • Data sources
                                                        • Sales data
                                                          • Fan chart forecast
                                                            • Consumer survey data
                                                              • Abbreviations
                                                                • Abbreviations
                                                                • Appendix – The Market

                                                                    • Figure 60: Total US sales and forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                    • Figure 61: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                                                                    • Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of bread and cookie mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                    • Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of cake and pastry mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                    • Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of pancake/french toast/waffle mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                    • Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of frosting, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                    • Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking supplies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                    • Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of other baking mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
                                                                    • Figure 68: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                                    • Figure 69: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
                                                                    • Figure 70: US supermarket sales of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                                    • Figure 71: US sales of baking and dessert mixes through other retail channels, at current prices, 2012-17
                                                                • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                    • Figure 72: Multi-outlet sales of brownie/cookie/cookie bar/muffin/bread mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                    • Figure 73: Multi-outlet sales of cake/cupcake/coffee cake/gingerbread/pastry mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                    • Figure 74: Multi-outlet sales of pancake/french toast/waffle mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                    • Figure 75: Multi-outlet sales of frosting/frosting mixes/edible decorations, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                    • Figure 76: Multi-outlet sales of baking supplies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                    • Figure 77: Multi-outlet sales of other baking mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                                • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                    • Figure 78: Food opinions, by gender, Summer 2017
                                                                    • Figure 79: Food opinions, by age, Summer 2017
                                                                    • Figure 80: Food opinions, by race, Summer 2017
                                                                    • Figure 81: Food opinions, by Hispanic origin, Summer 2017
                                                                    • Figure 82: Food opinions, by household income, Summer 2017
                                                                    • Figure 83: Food opinions, by education, Summer 2017
                                                                    • Figure 84: Food opinions, by number of people in household, Summer 2017
                                                                    • Figure 85: Food opinions, by number of children in household, Summer 2017
                                                                    • Figure 86: Food opinions, by region, Summer 2017
                                                                    • Figure 87: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by gender, Summer 2017
                                                                    • Figure 88: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by age, Summer 2017
                                                                    • Figure 89: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by race, Summer 2017
                                                                    • Figure 90: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by Hispanic origin, Summer 2017
                                                                    • Figure 91: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by household income, Summer 2017
                                                                    • Figure 92: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by education, Summer 2017
                                                                    • Figure 93: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by number of people in household, Summer 2017
                                                                    • Figure 94: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by number of children in household, Summer 2017
                                                                    • Figure 95: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by region, Summer 2017
                                                                • Appendix – TURF Analysis – Baking and Dessert Mixes – February 2018

                                                                  • Methodology
                                                                    • Figure 96: Table – TURF analysis – Important attributes, November 2017

                                                                Baking and Dessert Mixes - US - February 2018

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