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Bread - UK - September 2019

Covered in this report

The market size includes white, brown and wholemeal loaves, including with various additions, which may be sliced or unsliced, wrapped or unwrapped, as well as speciality bread. A distinction is drawn between bread that is baked by plant/factory bakeries and stocked on grocery shelves (also called pre-packed bread), and bread that is baked by in-store bakers. Part-baked products are also included. Please see the Appendix for further information on the definition of bread.

For the purposes of this report, the speciality bread market is taken to include: bagels, baguettes, pittas, wraps, chapattis, naan breads, panini and garlic bread (ambient and chilled).

Sweet baked goods are excluded from this report and can be found under Mintel’s Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods – UK, March 2019 Report.


“While health concerns pose a barrier to uptake of bread, there is openness to bread with lower carbohydrates or made from more nutritious flour. Bread makers have the permission to position their products as contributing to healthy lifestyles.

“Similarly, tapping into current interest in gut health through emphasising bread as an easy way to get fibre into people’s diet continues to provides a means for keeping bread on the menu.”

– Amy Price , Senior Food and Drink Analyst

This report examines the following issues:

  • Fibre content and gut health offer strong selling points for bread
  • Greater potential for leftover ingredients
  • Opportunities for branded ISB bread

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Values and volumes are down in 2019
              • Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail value sales of bread, 2014-24
            • Pre-packed bread holds the lead despite sales drop
              • Figure 2: UK retail value sales of bread, by segment, 2017-19
            • Companies and brands
              • Warburtons retains lead but sees sales fall in pre-packed bread; own-label grows
                • Figure 3: Leading brands’ shares in the UK pre-packed bread retail market, by value, 2018/19*
              • Warburtons manages to grow sales in speciality bread and rolls
                • Figure 4: Leading brands’ shares in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2018/19*
              • Brands fight back against own-labels with NPD
                • Bread makers cut back on advertising spend
                  • Warburtons is the most trusted brand; Hovis the most traditional
                    • The consumer
                      • Bread buying is almost universal, at 96%
                        • Figure 5: Types of bread and bread products bought in the past month, June 2019
                      • British flour appeals to 34%
                        • Figure 6: Interest in innovation in bread, June 2019
                      • Opportunities for branded ISB bread and subscription services
                        • Figure 7: Behaviours related to bread, June 2019
                      • Fibre content and gut health offer strong selling points for bread
                        • Figure 8: Attitudes towards bread, June 2019
                      • What we think
                      • Issues and Insights

                        • Fibre content and gut health offer strong selling points for bread
                          • The facts
                            • The implications
                              • Greater potential for leftover ingredients
                                • The facts
                                  • The implications
                                    • Opportunities for branded ISB bread
                                      • The facts
                                        • The implications
                                        • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                          • Values and volumes are down in 2019
                                            • Values expected to rise but volumes to decline by 2024
                                              • White dominates pre-packed bread but bread with bits sees fastest volume rise
                                                • Bagels are the standout performer in rolls and speciality bread
                                                  • Out-of-home lunch market remains a threat
                                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                                    • Values and volumes are down in 2019
                                                      • Figure 9: UK retail value and volume sales of the bread market, 2014-24
                                                    • Values expected to rise but volumes to decline by 2024
                                                      • Figure 10: Forecast of UK retail value sales of bread, 2014-24
                                                      • Figure 11: Forecast of UK retail volume sales of bread, 2014-24
                                                    • Forecast methodology
                                                    • Market Segmentation

                                                      • Pre-packed bread holds the lead despite sales drop
                                                        • Figure 12: UK retail value sales of bread, by segment, 2017-19
                                                      • White dominates pre-packed bread but bread with bits sees fastest volumes rise
                                                        • Figure 13: UK retail value and volume sales of pre-packed bread, by type, 2017-19
                                                      • Bagels are the standout performer in rolls and speciality bread
                                                        • Rolls suffer ongoing decline
                                                          • Figure 14: UK retail value sales of rolls and speciality bread, by types, 2017-19
                                                      • Market Drivers

                                                        • Health remains a concern for consumers
                                                          • Out-of-home lunch market remains a threat
                                                            • Figure 15: Out of home meals, by occasion, April 2018 and April 2019
                                                          • Improved household incomes create opportunities for premium products
                                                            • Figure 16: CPI vs average weekly earnings, 2013-19
                                                          • Uncertainties surround consumer finances post-Brexit
                                                            • Pressure grows on the food industry to reduce packaging waste
                                                              • Rise in children should support sales, though slowing from previous trend
                                                                • Figure 17: Change in age structure of the UK population, 2014-19 and 2019-24
                                                            • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                              • Warburtons retains lead but sees sales fall in pre-packed bread; own-label grows
                                                                • Warburtons manages to grow sales in speciality bread and rolls
                                                                  • Brands fight back against own-labels
                                                                    • Warburtons continues to step up NPD
                                                                      • Bread makers cut back on advertising spend
                                                                        • Warburtons is the most trusted brand; Hovis the most traditional
                                                                        • Market Share

                                                                          • Warburtons leads in pre-packed bread, despite a fall in sales
                                                                            • Hovis sees values rise on the back of falling volumes
                                                                              • Kingsmill continues to struggle
                                                                                • Figure 18: Leading brands in the UK pre-packed bread retail market, by value and volume, 2016/17-2018/19
                                                                              • Warburtons manages to grow sales in speciality bread and rolls
                                                                                • New York Bakery Co sees sales bounce back
                                                                                  • Figure 19: Leading brands in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2016/17-2018/19
                                                                              • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                • Brands fight back against own-labels
                                                                                  • Figure 20: Share of new product launches in the UK bread market, by brand and own-label, 2015-19
                                                                                • Tesco took the lead by NPD in 2018
                                                                                  • Figure 21: Share of new product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by top companies (sorted by 2018), 2015-19
                                                                                  • Figure 22: Tesco looks to flavour in flatbreads, 2019
                                                                                • Tesco expands its exclusive offering
                                                                                  • Figure 23: Tesco launches Polski exclusive line, 2018
                                                                                • Asda and New York Bakery look to new flavours
                                                                                  • Warburtons continues to step up NPD
                                                                                    • Warburtons enters full-sized bagels market
                                                                                      • Figure 24: Warburtons diversifies portfolio, 2019
                                                                                    • Premium trend continues
                                                                                      • Figure 25: Share of premium products in the UK bread market, 2015-19
                                                                                    • Sourdough trend continues
                                                                                      • Figure 26: Hovis and Modern Baker launch sourdough breads, 2018 and 2019
                                                                                    • Healthy eating trends influence NPD
                                                                                      • Seeded variants look to textural cues to create standout
                                                                                        • Figure 27: Manufacturers look to texture to create standout, 2018 and 2019
                                                                                        • Figure 28: Sainsbury’s launches bread with 18% seeds, 2019
                                                                                        • Figure 29: Rise Organic Bakery lists 21 seeds, US, 2017
                                                                                      • Kingsmill launches vitamin-fortified bread
                                                                                        • Figure 30: Kingsmill launches Vitamin Boost bread, 2018
                                                                                      • Brands leverage gut health
                                                                                        • Figure 31: Share of product launches in the UK bread market, by the high/added fibre claim, 2015-19
                                                                                        • Figure 32: Manufacturers emphasise gut health, 2017 and 2018
                                                                                      • Vegan claims rise
                                                                                        • Figure 33: Share of product launches in the UK bread market, by the vegan/no animal ingredients claim, 2015-19
                                                                                        • Figure 34: Products with a vegan claim, 2019
                                                                                      • Manufacturers look to ethical/environmental measures
                                                                                        • Tesco to use unsold loaves in new products
                                                                                          • Baker Street emphasises fresher for longer claim
                                                                                            • Figure 35: Baker Street emphasises freshness on-pack, 2018
                                                                                            • Figure 36: Baker Street emphasises freshness at trade show, 2019
                                                                                          • Jackson’s removes palm oil from Champion bread
                                                                                          • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                            • Bread advertisers cut back
                                                                                              • Figure 37: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread, 2015-19
                                                                                            • Warburtons leads on spend and hires De Niro for bagel campaign
                                                                                                • Figure 38: Warburtons’ POS display, 2019
                                                                                                • Figure 39: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread, by leading advertisers, (sorted by 2018), 2015-19
                                                                                                • Figure 40: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread, by leading brands, 2019*
                                                                                              • Hovis brings back bike ad
                                                                                                • Deli Kitchen continues partnership with Tom Daley
                                                                                                  • M&S supports sourdough bread in 2019
                                                                                                    • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                    • Brand Research

                                                                                                        • Brand map
                                                                                                          • Figure 41: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, July 2019
                                                                                                        • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                          • Figure 42: Key metrics for selected brands, July 2019
                                                                                                        • Brand attitudes: Warburtons leads on trust
                                                                                                          • Figure 43: Attitudes, by brand, July 2019
                                                                                                        • Brand personality: New York Bakery Co. seen to be the most fun
                                                                                                          • Figure 44: Brand personality – Macro image, July 2019
                                                                                                        • Hovis seen to be traditional
                                                                                                          • Figure 45: Brand personality – Micro image, July 2019
                                                                                                        • Brand analysis
                                                                                                          • Warburtons is seen to offer trust and consistent high quality
                                                                                                            • Figure 46: User profile of Warburtons, July 2019
                                                                                                          • Hovis leads on perceptions of tradition and health
                                                                                                            • Figure 47: User profile of Hovis, July 2019
                                                                                                          • New York Bakery Co. seen to be the most indulgent, special and fun
                                                                                                            • Figure 48: User profile of New York Bakery Co., July 2019
                                                                                                          • Brace’s struggles to compete with the larger brands
                                                                                                            • Figure 49: User profile of Brace’s, July 2019
                                                                                                          • Kingsmill trails the leaders but is seen to be a family brand by 40%
                                                                                                            • Figure 50: User profile of Kingsmill, July 2019
                                                                                                          • Roberts is seen to offer an excellent experience among three in ten users
                                                                                                            • Figure 51: User profile of Roberts, July 2019
                                                                                                        • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                          • Bread buying is almost universal, at 96%
                                                                                                            • White bread still the most popular
                                                                                                              • 42% eat packaged sliced bread and 18% other types of bread daily
                                                                                                                • British flour appeals to 34%
                                                                                                                  • Opportunities for branded ISB bread and subscription services
                                                                                                                    • Fibre content and gut health offer strong selling points for bread
                                                                                                                    • Purchase and Usage of Bread

                                                                                                                      • Bread buying is almost universal, at 96%
                                                                                                                        • Packaged sliced loaves lead
                                                                                                                          • Bagels see buying rise
                                                                                                                            • Figure 52: Types of bread and bread products bought in the past month, June 2019
                                                                                                                          • White bread still the most popular
                                                                                                                            • Figure 53: Types of packaged sliced loaves bought in the past month, June 2019
                                                                                                                          • Limited crossover between white, wholemeal and bread with bits
                                                                                                                            • Figure 54: Crossover in purchasing of packaged sliced loaves in the past month, June 2019
                                                                                                                          • Consumers have a large repertoire
                                                                                                                            • Figure 55: Repertoire of types of bread bought in the past month, June 2019
                                                                                                                          • 42% eat packaged sliced bread and 18% other types of bread daily
                                                                                                                            • Figure 56: Frequency of eating bread in the past month, June 2019
                                                                                                                        • Interest in Innovation

                                                                                                                          • British flour appeals to 34%
                                                                                                                            • Figure 57: Interest in innovation in bread, June 2019
                                                                                                                            • Figure 58: Sainsbury’s references use of British flour, 2019
                                                                                                                          • 24% are interested in lower carb bread
                                                                                                                          • Bread Behaviours

                                                                                                                            • Opportunities for branded ISB bread
                                                                                                                              • Figure 59: Behaviours related to bread, June 2019
                                                                                                                            • Unusual ingredients spark widespread interest - freshly baked offers a strong platform
                                                                                                                              • Appealing to time-poor shoppers could help to drive packed lunches
                                                                                                                                • Greater potential for leftover ingredients
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 60: Swedish and French bread brands look to beer as an ingredient, 2019
                                                                                                                                  • Minority interest in subscription services
                                                                                                                                  • Attitudes towards Bread

                                                                                                                                    • Fibre content and gut health offer strong selling points for bread
                                                                                                                                      • Fibre and gut health spark coverage and interest
                                                                                                                                        • Bread’s strong image as a source of fibre offers currency for brands
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 61: Attitudes towards bread, June 2019
                                                                                                                                        • Sustainability can win over shoppers
                                                                                                                                          • Consumers question packaging
                                                                                                                                            • Opportunities for premiumisation
                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                  • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                    • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 62: UK value sales of bread, best- and worst-case forecast, 2019-24
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 63: UK volume sales of bread, best- and worst-case forecast, 2019-24
                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Market Share

                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 64: Leading manufacturers in the UK pre-packed bread retail market, by value and volume, 2016/17-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 65: Leading manufacturers in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2016/17-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                                      • Definition
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 66: Share of sourdough products of all new launches in the UK bread market, 2015-19
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 67: Share of new product launches in the UK bread market, by top 10 claims (sorted by 2018), 2015-19
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 68: Share of new product launches in the UK bread market, by claim category, 2015-19
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 69: Share of new product launches in the UK bread market, by package type, 2015-19
                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 70: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread, by category, (sorted by 2018), 2015-19
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 71: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread, by media type, 2015-19

                                                                                                                                                    Bread - UK - September 2019

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