Sorry for interrupting, this website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Learn more
Accept and close

Description

Description

"COVID-19 will negatively impact the cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods market in the short term. An increase in home baking as well as the loss of potential eating occasions due to the nationwide lockdown will inflict a hit. Any potential benefits gained from the fact that these products are traditionally viewed as mood boosting, and people seeking comfort and enjoyment in this category during this time will thus be negated. However, this impact is expected to be short-lived, and the market is expected to start to recover in 2021.”
– Alice Pilkington, UK Food and Drink Analyst, 5th May 2020

This report examines the following areas:

  • The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behaviour and market dynamics in the cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods sector.
  • How the market is responding to overarching concerns in relation to sugar, and where underexplored opportunities for NPD lie
  • The value of individual segments and brand performance in 2019
  • Consumer behaviour and attitudes towards cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Key Issues Covered in this Report
        • Products covered in this Report
        • The Impact of COVID-19 on Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods

          • Short, medium and long-term impact on the industry
            • Figure 1: Expected impact of COVID-19 on cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, short, medium and long-term, 5 May 2020
          • Opportunities and Threats
            • COVID-19 unlikely to have long-term negative impact
              • Opportunities lie in targeting evening occasions
                • Brands should emphasise how cake can bring people together (virtually)
                  • Focus on health is expected to endure
                    • Impact on the market
                      • 2020 will see cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods sales hit
                        • The market will begin to recover in 2021
                          • Figure 2: Forecast of UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods (adjusted for COVID-19), 2014-24
                        • Supermarkets struggled with availability
                          • Figure 3: Not being able to buy out-of-stock products and shopping more from local businesses since the start of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 26th March 2020-9th April 2020
                        • Local bakeries explore delivery
                          • Impulse purchases hit as people limit supermarket visits
                            • Figure 4: Trying to limit time spent in-store and cutting back on non-essential spending since the start of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 26th March 2020-9th April 2020
                          • Shifts in consumer behaviour
                            • Focus on health is expected to endure
                              • Figure 5: Change in priorities regarding eating healthily since the start of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, by age and presence of children,16th-23rd April 2020
                            • Support for local producers holds potential beyond the crisis
                              • Figure 6: Change in priorities regarding one’s local community since the start of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, by age and presence of children,16th-23rd April 2020
                            • Impact on key consumer segments
                              • Full-time workers are core cake users
                                • Number of children set to increase but benefit to market will depend on parents’ income
                                  • Figure 7: Frequency of eating slices of whole cakes, by age and presence of children in the household, December 2019
                                • Over-55s warrant greater attention
                                  • How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the market
                                    • 2008/09 recession saw own-label benefit
                                      • Impact on the marketing mix
                                        • Opportunities in dessert occasions
                                          • Middle of the market will see increasing price competition
                                            • Emphasising the inexpensive treat role of cakes could appeal
                                              • Local bakeries may have earned long-term custom
                                                • COVID-19: Market context
                                                • Executive Summary

                                                    • Impact of COVID-19 on Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods
                                                      • COVID-19 unlikely to have long-term negative impact
                                                        • Figure 8: Forecast of UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods (adjusted for COVID-19), 2014-24
                                                        • Figure 9: Expected impact of COVID-19 on cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, short, medium and long-term, 5 May 2020
                                                      • Income squeeze could see own-label resurgence
                                                        • Opportunities lie in targeting evening occasions
                                                          • The market
                                                            • 2019 sees modest growth continue for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods
                                                              • Small cakes continue to outperform, hot cross buns leap ahead in sweet baked goods
                                                                • Figure 10: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by segment, 2017-19
                                                              • Category looks set to fail PHE sugar reduction and reformulation target
                                                                • Number of children set to rise but older consumers could prove a barrier
                                                                  • Companies and brands
                                                                    • Mr Kipling sees rebranding and product innovation pay off in cakes and cake bars
                                                                      • Figure 11: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK retail cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2017/18-2018/19
                                                                    • Warburton’s leads in brands but own-label remains dominant in sweet baked goods
                                                                      • Figure 12: Leading brand owners’ sales and share in the UK retail sweet baked goods market, by value, 2017/18-2018/19
                                                                    • Spotlight on health stimulates more better-for-you variants, but these remain niche
                                                                      • Own-label continues to push the boundaries in seasonal offerings
                                                                        • Innovation responds to growth in plant-based movement
                                                                          • Low adspend due to private-label dominance
                                                                            • The consumer
                                                                              • Cakes and sweet bakes are enjoyed almost universally
                                                                                • Figure 13: Frequency of eating cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2019
                                                                              • Dessert and evening snacks offer category potential new eating occasions
                                                                                • Figure 14: Reasons for buying cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2019
                                                                              • More convenient formats could do well
                                                                                • Figure 15: Factors considered important to have in a perfect cake, cake bar or sweet baked good, December 2019
                                                                              • Creating a local bakery feel could win favour with consumers
                                                                                • Figure 16: Cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods eating and buying behaviours, December 2019
                                                                              • What we think
                                                                              • Issues and Insights

                                                                                • New snacking occasions create opportunities for category
                                                                                  • The facts
                                                                                    • The implications
                                                                                      • Healthier variants hold potential for keeping cakes and sweet baked goods on consumers’ menus
                                                                                        • The facts
                                                                                          • The implications
                                                                                            • Providing the special feeling of a bakery will chime with consumers
                                                                                              • The facts
                                                                                                • The implications
                                                                                                • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                  • 2019 sees modest growth continue for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods
                                                                                                    • COVID-19 will have short term negative impact on cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods
                                                                                                      • Cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods expected to return to growth in 2021
                                                                                                        • Pre-COVID-19 forecast predicts market would have seen slight growth
                                                                                                          • Small cakes continue to outperform
                                                                                                            • Hot cross buns leap ahead in sweet baked goods
                                                                                                              • Category looks set to fail PHE sugar reduction and reformulation target
                                                                                                                • COVID-19 sees uplift in baking and lost eating occasions
                                                                                                                  • Number of children set to rise but older consumers could prove a barrier
                                                                                                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                    • 2019 sees modest growth continue for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods
                                                                                                                      • Figure 17: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2014-19
                                                                                                                    • Outlook in light of COVID-19
                                                                                                                      • COVID-19 will have short term negative impact on cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods
                                                                                                                        • Cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods likely to recover in 2021
                                                                                                                          • Figure 18: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods (adjusted for COVID-19), 2014-24
                                                                                                                          • Figure 19: Forecast of UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods (adjusted for COVID-19), 2014-24
                                                                                                                        • Pre-COVID-19 forecast predicts market would have seen slight growth
                                                                                                                          • Figure 20: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods (pre-COVID-19 forecast), 2014-24
                                                                                                                          • Figure 21: Forecast of UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods (pre-COVID-19 forecast), 2014-24
                                                                                                                        • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                                        • Market Segmentation

                                                                                                                          • Small cakes continue to outperform
                                                                                                                            • Figure 22: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by segment, 2017-19
                                                                                                                          • Hot cross buns leap ahead in sweet baked goods
                                                                                                                            • Figure 23: UK retail sales of prepacked sweet baked goods, by type, 2017-19
                                                                                                                        • Market Drivers

                                                                                                                          • Category looks set to fail PHE sugar reduction and reformulation target
                                                                                                                            • Minor progress as cakes and morning goods begin to reformulate
                                                                                                                              • Figure 24: Percentage of sugar reduction achieved across selected categories within PHE’s sugar reduction and reformulation programme, 2015-18*
                                                                                                                            • Most consumers are limiting sugar
                                                                                                                              • Home baking will have greater impact on market due to COVID-19
                                                                                                                                • Two in three people bake at home
                                                                                                                                  • COVID-19 sees uplift in baking
                                                                                                                                    • Number of children set to rise but older consumers could prove a barrier
                                                                                                                                      • Parents are core cake buyers
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 25: Frequency of eating slices of whole cakes, by age and presence of children in the household, December 2019
                                                                                                                                      • Strong interest in better-for-you kids’ snacks
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 26: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2014-19 and 2019-24
                                                                                                                                    • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                      • Mr Kipling sees rebranding and product innovation pay off in cakes and cake bars
                                                                                                                                        • Warburton’s leads in brands but own-label remains dominant in sweet baked goods
                                                                                                                                          • Spotlight on health stimulates more better-for-you variants, but remain minority
                                                                                                                                            • Retailers continue to push the boundaries in seasonal offerings
                                                                                                                                              • Innovation responds to growth in plant-based movement
                                                                                                                                                • Mr Kipling sees a wealth of launches in 2019
                                                                                                                                                  • Low adspend due to private-label dominance
                                                                                                                                                  • Market Share

                                                                                                                                                    • Mr Kipling sees rebranding and product innovation pay off in cakes and cake bars
                                                                                                                                                      • Cadbury outperforms own-label dominated market
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 27: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK retail cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2016/17-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 28: Leading brand owners’ sales and share in the UK retail cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2016/17-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                      • Warburton’s leads in brands but own-label remains dominant in sweet baked goods
                                                                                                                                                        • Soreen boosted by advertising campaign
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 29: Leading brand owners’ sales and share in the UK retail sweet baked goods market, by value, 2016/17-2018/19
                                                                                                                                                      • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                                        • Spotlight on health stimulates more better-for-you variants
                                                                                                                                                          • Sugar and fibre claims remain rare
                                                                                                                                                            • Launches explore nutritious ingredients
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 30: Recent examples of healthy innovation within cakes and sweet baked goods, 2019
                                                                                                                                                            • Mr Kipling expands Reduced Sugar range
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 31: Mr Kipling Angel Slices with 30% less sugar, front of pack and snack packs, 2019
                                                                                                                                                            • Fibre One launches Red Velvet Cake Bar
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 32: Fibre One 90 calorie Red Velvet Cake Bars, 2019
                                                                                                                                                            • Own-label continues to lead in launch activity
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 33: New product launches in the UK cakes, pastries and sweet goods market, by top 10 companies (sorted by 2019), 2015-19
                                                                                                                                                            • Retailers continue to push the boundaries in seasonal offerings
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 34: Share of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods launches with a seasonal claim, 2015-19
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 35: Examples of flavour experimentation in seasonal baked goods, 2019
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 36: Examples of Waitrose’s hot cross bun launches, 2019
                                                                                                                                                            • Innovation responds to growth in plant-based movement
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 37: Share of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods launches with a vegan/no-animal-ingredients claim, 2015-19
                                                                                                                                                            • Premier Foods moves into plant-based snacking
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 38: Plantastic Orange & Parsnip Cake with Pecans, front of pack and back of pack detail, 2019
                                                                                                                                                            • Oggs brings eggless cakes to the mainstream market
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 39: Oggs zesty lemon cakes front of pack and back of pack detail, 2019
                                                                                                                                                            • Bells & Whistles cake slices look to combine health and indulgence
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 40: Examples of Bells & Whistles cake slice range, 2019
                                                                                                                                                            • Vegan versions of traditionally un-vegan products appear
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 41: Further examples of vegan launches in the cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods category, 2020
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 42: Vegan examples of seasonal sweet baked goods, 2019
                                                                                                                                                            • Mr Kipling sees a wealth of launches in 2019
                                                                                                                                                              • Signature Collection targets premium end of market
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 43: Mr Kipling Signature Collection Apple, Pear & Custard Crumble Tarts front packaging and back detail, 2019
                                                                                                                                                              • After-dinner cakes expand into traditional dessert territory
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 44: Mr Kipling Signature Collection After dinner Mint Fancies front of pack and back detail, 2019
                                                                                                                                                              • Mr Kipling goes mini
                                                                                                                                                                • Own-brand and Baileys amp up indulgence
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 45: Recent examples of premiumisation and indulgence from retailers and brands, 2019
                                                                                                                                                                • Issue of waste within industry spurs on action
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 46: Recent examples of a product using surplus bakery products, 2020
                                                                                                                                                                • Baking celebrity ranges experience mixed fortunes
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 47: Mary Berry Celebration Rose Cake with piping tube to personalise, 2019
                                                                                                                                                              • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                                                • Low adspend due to private-label dominance
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 48: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2019 and Q1 2020
                                                                                                                                                                • Soreen launches “Deliciously Squidgy Adventures” campaign
                                                                                                                                                                  • Aldi celebrates award win with hot cross bun advert…
                                                                                                                                                                    • …and M&S claims new variants are “not just hot cross buns”
                                                                                                                                                                      • Mr Kipling launches second range of Roald Dahl products with on-pack competition
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 49: Examples of the Mr Kipling Roald Dahl and Core ranges featuring the on-pack competition, 2019
                                                                                                                                                                      • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                                        • Cakes and sweet bakes are enjoyed almost universally
                                                                                                                                                                          • Over half of consumers buy these products to treat themselves
                                                                                                                                                                            • Potential for sweet baked goods to play more of a dessert role
                                                                                                                                                                              • Cakes and sweet baked goods could take advantage of evening snacking occasions
                                                                                                                                                                                • Taste leads among choice factors by a distance
                                                                                                                                                                                  • More convenient formats could do well
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Creating a local bakery feel could win favour with consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Nearly three quarters believe cakes can be healthy and delicious
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Usage of Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Cakes and sweet bakes are enjoyed almost universally
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 50: Frequency of eating cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Under-35s and parents are core users
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 51: Frequency of eating slices of whole cakes, by age and presence of children in the household, December 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Sweet baked goods and individual cakes enjoyed the most frequently
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Where People Buy Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods

                                                                                                                                                                                          • Supermarkets are top location for purchases
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 52: Location of purchase of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Reasons for Buying Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods

                                                                                                                                                                                          • Over half of consumers buy these products to treat themselves
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 53: Reasons for buying cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Opportunities for cakes for adults
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Inspiration from chocolate and ice cream
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Potential for sweet baked goods to play more of a dessert role
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 54: McVitie’s Jamaica Ginger Sticky Pudding cake with a hot or cold serving suggestion, 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Cakes and sweet baked goods could take advantage of evening snacking occasions
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Indulgence and sweet flavours gain importance in snacks in the evening
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 55: Sainsbury’s Taste the Difference Triple Berry Hot Cross Buns emphasising sweetness of individual elements, 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 56: Genius Gluten Free Apple Pies emphasising sweetness of individual elements, 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Injecting fun to cakes with packaging and language
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 57: Recent example of fun, bold packaging design from Oggs, 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 58: Nestlé Quality Street Matchmakers Chocolates with an on-pack game, 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Choice Factors of Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Taste leads choice factors by a distance
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 59: Choice factors of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Convenience and healthiness are more important for frequent eaters
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Factors Important for a Perfect Cake, Cake Bar or Sweet Baked Good

                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Demand for convenience offers opportunities for new formats
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 60: Factors considered important to have in a perfect cake, cake bar or sweet baked good, December 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Cake bars are well-established baked good that can boost convenience
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 61: Recent international examples of convenient formats of sweet baked goods, 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Less sweet cakes could help sugar reduction efforts
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Scope to call out ‘less sweet’ proposition
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 62: Recent examples of products claiming to be “not too sweet”, 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 63: Willie’s Cacao Pistachio & Date Bar stating not needing sugar due to fruit content, 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Opportunities to reduce sugar without sweeteners
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Behaviours Related to Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Products bought from bakeries are seen as special
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Four in five see bakery treats as special
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 64: Cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods eating and buying behaviours, December 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • More scope to call out artisan credentials
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 65: Waitrose Easter Spiced Panettone calling out a traditional family recipe, 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 66: Popty Bakery Traditional Welsh Cakes regional brand emphasising the story behind the product, 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Retailers would do well to stock locally produced baked goods
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Leading grocers support local suppliers
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • COVID-19 puts the spotlight on helping the local community
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Nearly three quarters believe cakes can be healthy and delicious
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Strong conviction that healthiness and taste can go together
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Reducing sugar remains needed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Scope to explore better-for-you additions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Two thirds are open to more international cakes and baked goods
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • In-store bakeries’ flexibility facilitates new variants
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix - Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 67: Share of new product launches in the UK cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods market, by top 30 claims, 2015-19 (sorted by 2019)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 68: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake Bars and sweet baked goods, best- and worst-case forecast (pre COVID-19), 2019-24
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Share

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 69: Leading brand owners’ sales and share in the UK retail sweet baked goods market, by value, 2016/17-2018/19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                About the report

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Consumer

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Competitors

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Market

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Innovations

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Trends

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Trusted by companies. Big and small.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • bell
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • boots
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • google
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • samsung
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • allianz
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • kelloggs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • walgreens
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • redbull
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • unilever
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Harvard
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • pinterest
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • new-york-time