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Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods - UK - March 2019

Covered in this report

This report examines the UK retail market for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods. The market size includes sales through all retail channels including direct to consumer. Mintel defines the market as comprising packaged (wrapped) cakes and sweet baked goods which are kept at ambient temperatures, as well as cakes from in-store bakeries and bakery shops.

The market can be broadly segmented into small cakes, large cakes, celebration cakes, occasion cakes and puddings, and sweet baked goods.

‘Small cakes’ include individual cakes either sold singly, or as multipacks or assortments, including seasonal and occasion variants of the same. These include slices, small pies & tarts, mini rolls, cupcakes, bites, cake bars, flapjacks and other small cakes.

‘Large cakes’ include cakes intended for sharing. These include whole cakes, slab cakes, loaf cakes, Swiss rolls, sponge cakes, large pies & tarts and tray bakes.

‘Sweet baked goods’ include: crumpets, croissants, brioche loaves and rolls, pains au chocolat and raisins, American muffins, scones, hot cross buns/loaves, malt and fruit loaves, pancakes, teacakes, doughnuts, English muffins, waffles, fruit buns, crêpes, potato cakes/scones, Irish bread, iced buns, farls, sweet bread/ buns and pikelets.

“While lower sugar is the key attribute seen to denote healthier cakes/sweet baked goods, companies reformulating products will need to reassure consumers that the taste and indulgent aspects will remain unaffected. That many people find shop-bought cakes too sweet however suggests opportunities for new products with inherently lower-sugar recipes.”
– Alice Baker, Research Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Focus on naturalness of ingredients is needed
  • Opportunities for expansion in lower-sugar and less sweet cakes
  • Intense competition makes regular innovation imperative

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Inflation and uplift in cake volume sales spur market growth in 2018
              • Further inflation and weak volume sales predicted for 2018-23
                • Figure 1: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2013-23
              • Cakes perform better than sweet baked goods in 2018
                • War on sugar continues
                  • Rise in home baking threatens category sales
                    • Companies and brands
                      • Mr Kipling regains ground and own-label extends its lead
                        • Figure 2: Leading brands’ sales in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2017/18*
                      • Own-label leads on launch activity in 2018
                        • More crossover brands enter the market
                          • Advertising spend rises in 2018
                            • The consumer
                              • Nine in 10 adults eat cakes, cake bars or sweet baked goods
                                • Figure 3: Usage of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by type, December 2018
                              • Lower sugar is the key attribute to denote healthier status
                                • Figure 4: Factors deemed to make cakes/sweet baked goods healthier, December 2018
                              • Freshly baked is the top attribute people would pay more for
                                • Figure 5: Attributes seen as worth paying more for in cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2018
                              • Opportunities for premium products
                                • Figure 6: Behaviours relating to cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2018
                              • Short ingredients lists are widely preferred over long ones
                                • Consumer opinions are divided on packaging use
                                  • Figure 7: Attitudes towards cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2018
                                • What we think
                                • Issues and Insights

                                  • Focus on naturalness of ingredients is needed
                                    • The facts
                                      • The implications
                                        • Opportunities for expansion in lower-sugar and less sweet cakes
                                          • The facts
                                            • The implications
                                              • Intense competition makes regular innovation imperative
                                                • The facts
                                                  • The implications
                                                  • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                    • Inflation and uplift in cake volume sales spur market growth in 2018
                                                      • Further inflation and weak volume sales predicted for 2018-23
                                                        • Cakes perform better than sweet baked goods in 2018
                                                          • War on sugar continues
                                                            • Rise in home baking threatens category sales
                                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                                              • Inflation drives category growth in 2018
                                                                • Rising ingredients costs and premiumisation trend drive up value sales in 2018
                                                                  • Figure 8: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2013-23
                                                                  • Figure 9: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2013-23
                                                                • Inflation and weak underlying volume sales predicted for 2018-23
                                                                  • Health trend and ageing population to hinder volume sales
                                                                    • Inflation to mask weak underlying volume sales
                                                                      • Forecast methodology
                                                                      • Market Segmentation

                                                                        • Cakes perform better than sweet baked goods in 2018
                                                                          • Figure 10: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by major segment, 2013-18
                                                                        • Small cakes outperform large ones in 2018
                                                                          • Figure 11: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by segment, 2017 and 2018
                                                                        • Celebration cakes lose out to occasion cakes and puddings
                                                                          • Mixed results in sweet baked goods sales
                                                                            • Traditional British products lose out to international foods trend
                                                                              • Figure 12: Total UK retail sales of pre-packed sweet baked goods, by type, 2017 and 2018
                                                                            • Malt loaf gains from PHE endorsement
                                                                            • Market Drivers

                                                                              • War on sugar continues
                                                                                • Manufacturers are tasked with cutting sugar
                                                                                  • PHE report finds mixed results in retailers’ progress on sugar reduction
                                                                                    • Calls grow for stronger action to be taken against the food industry
                                                                                      • New Change4Life snacking campaign offers a challenge and an opportunity
                                                                                        • Figure 13: Soreen Twitter advert promoting its Change4Life endorsement, later retweeted by Change4Life, January 2019
                                                                                      • Opportunities for lower-calorie products
                                                                                        • Cakes and sweet baked goods makers face particular challenges in reducing sugar
                                                                                          • Progress made on sugar reduction technologies
                                                                                            • Weather extremes of 2018 drive up ingredients prices
                                                                                              • Changes in the UK population could have divergent effects
                                                                                                • Ageing population offers little support for cakes and sweet baked goods
                                                                                                  • Growth in child population set to slow down
                                                                                                    • Figure 14: Trends in the age structure of the UK population (0-15 year olds), by age, 2013-23
                                                                                                  • Parents under pressure to reduce their children’s sugar intake
                                                                                                    • Cakes and sweet baked goods face stiff competition
                                                                                                      • A third of users are baking more at home than previously
                                                                                                        • Improved household incomes give opportunities for premium products…
                                                                                                          • Figure 15: CPI vs average weekly earnings, 2013-18
                                                                                                        • …but could lead to products losing out as more people eat out
                                                                                                          • Uncertainties surround consumer finances post-Brexit
                                                                                                            • Pressure grows on the food industry to reduce packaging waste
                                                                                                            • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                              • Mr Kipling regains ground and own-label extends its lead
                                                                                                                • Own-label leads on launch activity in 2018
                                                                                                                  • More crossover brands enter the market
                                                                                                                    • Advertising spend rises in 2018
                                                                                                                    • Market Share

                                                                                                                      • Mr Kipling regains ground in 2018
                                                                                                                        • Figure 16: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK retail cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2015/16-2017/18
                                                                                                                        • Figure 17: Leading brand owners’ sales and share in the UK retail cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2015/16-2017/18
                                                                                                                      • Strong NPD activity boosts own-label cakes
                                                                                                                        • Premiumisation trend benefits own-label at the expense of brands
                                                                                                                          • Mary Berry’s star power boosts cakes in her name
                                                                                                                            • Figure 18: Example of Mary Berry cakes range, 2019
                                                                                                                          • Soreen’s healthy image boosts sales
                                                                                                                            • Own-label continues to dominate sweet baked goods sales
                                                                                                                              • Figure 19: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK retail sweet baked goods market, by value, 2015/16-2017/18
                                                                                                                            • Focus on heritage boosts Sheldon’s
                                                                                                                              • Genius benefits from growth in the free-from category
                                                                                                                              • Start-ups and Disruptors Case Studies – The Protein Bakery

                                                                                                                                • Company overview
                                                                                                                                  • What is it?
                                                                                                                                    • Founded
                                                                                                                                      • Company mission statement
                                                                                                                                        • Founders Story
                                                                                                                                          • Mintel analyst view
                                                                                                                                            • Mintel Trends
                                                                                                                                              • Why it could succeed
                                                                                                                                                • Why it could fail
                                                                                                                                                  • The verdict
                                                                                                                                                    • Product information
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 20: The Protein Bakery, Date year
                                                                                                                                                    • Media profile
                                                                                                                                                      • Social media metrics
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 21: Social media metrics for The Protein Bakery as of January 2019
                                                                                                                                                      • The brand’s view
                                                                                                                                                        • Sources of funding and support
                                                                                                                                                          • Target audience
                                                                                                                                                            • What consumer needs does the range meet?
                                                                                                                                                              • Product stockists
                                                                                                                                                                • Looking to the future
                                                                                                                                                                • Start-ups and Disruptors Case Study – The Sweet Reason Company

                                                                                                                                                                  • Company overview
                                                                                                                                                                    • What is it?
                                                                                                                                                                      • Founded
                                                                                                                                                                        • Company mission statement
                                                                                                                                                                          • Founder’s story
                                                                                                                                                                            • Mintel analyst View
                                                                                                                                                                              • Mintel Trends
                                                                                                                                                                                • Why it could succeed
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Why it could fail
                                                                                                                                                                                    • The verdict
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Product information
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Media profile
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Social media metrics
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 22: Social media metrics for Company as of March 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                          • The brand’s view
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Sources of funding and support
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Target audience
                                                                                                                                                                                                • What consumer needs does the range meet?
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Product stockists
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Looking to the future
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Own-label leads on launch activity in 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 23: New product launches in the UK cakes, pastries and sweet goods market, by top 10 companies (sorted by 2018), 2014-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Retailers push the envelope on visual spectacle…
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 24: Tesco Easter cake, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 25: M&S Facebook advert for its Santa’s Rooftop Chocolate & Caramel Yule Log, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • …and continue with hot cross bun flavour innovation
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 26: Examples of hot cross buns in unusual flavours, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Mr Kipling draws inspiration from children’s books and characters
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 27: Mr Kipling’s cake slices featuring mythical creatures, 2018-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Further activity in bite-size formats
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Retailers target parties with seasonal cake bites
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 28: Examples of bitesize cakes with seasonal positioning, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Krispy Kreme unveils doughnut bites
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 29: Krispy Kreme advert for its doughnut bites, 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • More crossover brands enter the cakes category
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Chocolate and biscuit brand extensions blur the boundaries between products
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 30: Examples of cake bars from chocolate/biscuit brands, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Mars goes for colour appeal with Skittles rainbow cake
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 31: Skittles Rainbow Party Cake, 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Weetabix muffins should benefit from brand’s healthy image
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 32: Example of Weetabix Breakfast Muffins range, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Baileys makes further play for Christmas with chocolate yule log
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • PizzaExpress launches sweet dough balls for Christmas
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 33: PizzaExpress extends into sweet baked goods, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Brands and retailers take inspiration from foodservice trends
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Leading and niche brands draw on coffee shop flavour trends
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 34: Cake launches with coffee shop-inspired flavours, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Retailers tap the South American trend with churros
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 35: Examples of own-label churros launches, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Seasonal products target a more varied range of occasions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 36: New product launches in the UK cakes, pastries and sweet goods market, by top 20 claims (sorted by 2018), 2014-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Leading brands target new users and occasions with Christmas launches
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Own-label leads on Halloween-themed activity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 37: Examples of Halloween-themed seasonal cakes launches, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Cadbury and Co-op target Halloween with pumpkin flavours
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 38: Examples of Halloween-themed seasonal cakes with pumpkin flavours, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Cadbury also targets Bonfire Night
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 39: Example of Bonfire Night-themed seasonal cake launch, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Strong activity in seasonal free-from cakes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 40: Examples of free-from seasonal cakes/sweet baked goods launches, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Brands and retailers target Valentine’s Day 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 41: Examples of Valentine’s-themed seasonal cakes launches, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Rise in gluten-free launches
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Specialist brand makes functional digestive health claim
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 42: Example of gluten-free cake with functional health claim, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Rise in children’s launches, but little real innovation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Soreen expands Lunchbox Loaves range
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 43: Example of Soreen Lunchbox Loaves range, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Vegan claims remain niche
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 44: Examples of vegan cake launches, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Alternative Foods launches vegan cakes with aquafaba
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Retailers introduce vegan items into their in-store bakeries
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 45: Examples of vegan sweet baked goods, 2018-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • L/N/R sugar claims remain rare
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Multiple claims used to build all-round healthy positioning
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Organic brand explores sugar alternatives
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 46: Examples of L/N/R sugar cakes launches, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Advertising spend rises slightly in 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 47: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2015-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Supermarkets continue to dominate advertising
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Waitrose leads on advertising in 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Asda supports its mince pies
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • General Mills pushes permissibility in Fibre One adverts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Premier Foods focuses on Mr Kipling
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • TV advert emphasises the importance of kindness
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Mr Kipling teams up with parent bloggers on Christmas campaign
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Cake design competition adds interactive element
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Selected other campaigns
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Soreen builds associations with active lifestyles with cycling campaign
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Bonne Maman madeleines portrayed as ideal for relaxing moments
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Iceland pushes palm oil issue into public consciousness with Christmas TV advert
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Nine in 10 adults eat cakes, cake bars or sweet baked goods
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Lower sugar is the key attribute to denote healthier status
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Freshly baked is the top attribute people would pay more for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Opportunities for premium products
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Short ingredients lists are widely preferred over long ones
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Consumer opinions are divided on packaging use
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Types of Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods Eaten

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Nine in 10 adults eat cakes or sweet baked goods
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 48: Usage of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Under-35s and families are the key users of cakes and sweet baked goods
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Small individual cakes and cake bars have the highest usage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Types of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods eaten, December 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Youth bias is more pronounced for some products than others
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Seven in 10 adults eat five or more cakes/sweet baked goods types
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Under-35s and families have the most varied repertoires
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 50: Repertoire of cakes and sweet baked goods eaten, December 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Frequency of Eating Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Cakes and sweet baked goods are an occasional treat for most people
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 51: Usage frequency for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by type, December 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Opportunity for premium products to benefit from a ‘less but better’ mentality
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Under-35s and parents are the most likely to eat cakes and sweet baked goods weekly
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Breakfast cakes should help to encourage more frequent usage…
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 52: International examples of healthier cake bars positioned for breakfast, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • …and could help to better compete with cereal bars
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Factors Deemed to Make Cakes/Sweet Baked Goods Healthier

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Lower sugar is the key attribute to denote healthier status…
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 53: Factors deemed to make cakes/sweet baked goods healthier, December 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • …but companies reducing sugar in cakes will need to reassure consumers on taste
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Lower fat and calories are widely seen as making cakes healthier
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Notable overlap in perceptions of the importance of different health attributes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • All-natural ingredients are especially prized by parents and older women
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Niche brands promote their clean-label credentials
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 54: Examples of cake launches with all-natural ingredients claims, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Attributes Seen as Worth Paying More for in Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • More than four in 10 would pay more for freshly baked products
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 55: Attributes seen as worth paying more for in cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Opportunities for bakeries to offer products baked to order
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • A quarter would pay more for a thick layer of topping/filling
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 56: Example of premium own-label cake referencing indulgent textures, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Innovative flavours appeal especially to under-35s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Use on-trend ingredients to build a reputation for innovation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Draw inspiration from other product categories and foodservice
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 57: Examples of cakes/cake bars with ice cream/dessert-inspired flavours, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Behaviours Relating to Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Regional specialities attract strong interest
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 58: Behaviours relating to cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Revivals of historic recipes can align with current food trends
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Emphasis on ingredient provenance would strengthen authentic image
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Ethical attributes can strengthen the appeal of regional speciality products
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Colourful cakes and sweet baked goods have wide appeal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Foodservice sector offers potential cues for retail products
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 59: Rainbow croissants from Hotel Café Royal, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Premium products can benefit from a ‘quality over quantity’ mind-set
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Concerns over ingredients put many parents off kids’ celebration cakes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Good opportunities for ‘clean label’ products
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • ‘No palm oil’ labels should appeal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Concerns around kids’ celebration cakes boost home baking
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Customisable cakes would seem closer to home-made
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Ethically sourced ingredients would help to reassure consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • A third of cake users are baking more at home compared with a year ago
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Multiple factors underpin reported rise in home baking
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Recipe cards and deals would allow supermarkets to harness the home baking trend
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Clean-label products can succeed amid the rise in home baking
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Innovate with flavours and product types to win over shoppers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Attitudes towards Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Short ingredients lists are widely preferred over long ones
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Consumers’ label scrutiny sets challenge for manufacturers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 60: Attitudes towards cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, December 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Consumer opinions are divided on packaging use
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Environmentally friendly packaging would help companies to reassure consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 61: Examples of cakes/chocolate with compostable packaging, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Cakes with palm oil put off 44% of users/buyers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • ‘No palm oil’ labels should appeal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 62: Iceland highlights absence of palm oil in its mince pies, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Examples from international markets offer potential cues for UK operators
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 63: International examples of cake launches flagging up the absence of palm oil, 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 64: Forecast of UK sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by value, best- and worst-case, 2018-23

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods - UK - March 2019

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)