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Canada Milk & Non-dairy Milk Market Report

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the Milk & Non-dairy Milk market, and the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

What are the key challenges facing the industry? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

Covered in this report

For the purposes of this report, Mintel has used the following definitions for milk and non-dairy milk:

Consumer data

Dairy milk:

  • 2% cow’s milk
  • 1% cow’s milk
  • Flavoured cow’s milk (eg chocolate)
  • Whole cow’s milk (eg 3.25%)
  • Lactose-free cow’s milk products
  • Organic cow’s milk
  • Goat’s milk

Non-dairy milk:

  • Almond milk
  • Soy milk
  • Coconut milk
  • Cashew milk
  • Rice milk
  • Pea milk
  • Quinoa milk
  • Flax seed milk

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Joel Gregoire, a leading analyst in the Food & Drink sector, her extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

Dairy milk is consumed by the vast majority of Canadians. Aside from water (including tap water), there is no other drink that Canadians consume more of. That said, people in Canada are drinking less milk from retail than they used to and this is likely the result of multiple factors, including the rise of non-dairy milk (eg almond milk). Joel Gregoire
Associate Director - Food & Drink

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Consumer data
          • Milk market size definitions (dairy milk)
          • Executive Summary

            • The issues
              • Canadians are drinking less dairy milk from retail
                • Figure 1: Dairy milk volume consumption per capita at retail (litres), 2010-18
              • Canadians are more likely claim that they are buying more non-dairy milk
                • Figure 2: Percent of consumers who are buying more, the same or less dairy and non-dairy milk versus last year, April 2019
              • The opportunities
                • Many Canadians turn to both dairy and non-dairy milk
                  • Figure 3: Dairy and non-dairy milk purchased in past three months, by dairy and non-dairy milk drinkers, April 2019
                • Focusing on specific attributes across different milk types can promote more relevant messaging
                  • Figure 4: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Perceptions, April 2019
                • Non-dairy milk stands to benefit more from the use of claims
                  • Figure 5: Claims that encourage Canadians to drink more milk, dairy vs non-dairy milk, April 2019
                • “Made in Canada” positioning matters to Canadians
                  • Figure 6: Importance of being “made in Canada” when choosing milk, by age, April 2019
                • What it means
                • The Market – What You Need to Know

                  • Milk dollar sales continue to soften at retail
                    • The rise in the number of births represents potential opportunity for whole milk
                      • Canada’s aging population represents a potential challenge for milk’s growth
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • Milk dollar sales continue to soften at retail
                          • Figure 7: Total Canada retail value sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2013-24
                          • Figure 8: Total Canada retail value sales and forecast of market, at current prices, 2013-24
                          • Figure 9: Total Canada retail volume sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2013-24
                          • Figure 10: Total Canada volume sales and fan chart forecast of market, 2013-24
                          • Figure 11: Other (non-retail) Canada volume other sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2013-24
                      • Market Breakdown

                        • Downward trend at retail influenced by multiple types of dairy milk
                          • Figure 12: Total Canada volume retail sales of market, white liquid vs flavoured milk, 2014-18
                          • Figure 13: Total Canada volume retail sales of market, by fat content, 2014-18
                        • Saputo remains the market leader, but “others” show growth
                          • Figure 14: Total Canada volume retail sales share of market, by company, 2017 and 2018
                      • Market Factors

                        • Canada’s aging population represents a potential challenge for milk’s growth
                          • Figure 15: Trended percentage of Canadian population by age, 0-14 vs over-65, 1950-2036 (f)
                          • Figure 16: Population aged 65 years and over in Canada, historical and projected (% of total), 1971-2061
                        • The rise in the number of births represents potential opportunity for whole milk
                          • Figure 17: Number of births annually, 2001-18
                        • Immigration represents potential for dairy and non-dairy milk
                          • Figure 18: Distribution of immigrants living in Canada, by region of birth, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to high scenario)
                      • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                        • More Canadians say they’re drinking more milk than less milk
                          • Almond milk remains popular, but does its popularity come at a cost to the environment?
                            • Will Canadians buy into added-value milk?
                            • What’s Working?

                              • More Canadians say they’re drinking more milk than less milk
                                • Figure 19: Percent of consumers who are buying more, the same or less dairy and non-dairy milk versus last year, April 2019
                                • Figure 20: Percent of consumers who are buying more, the same or less dairy milk versus last year, parents vs non-parents, April 2019
                            • Challenges

                              • Retail sales of dairy milk continue to slide
                                • Figure 21: Dairy milk volume consumption per capita at retail (litres), 2010-18
                                • Figure 22: Dairy milk volume consumption per capita in total market (litres), 2010-18
                              • Uncertain trade environment adds an element of uncertainty
                                • Almond milk remains popular, but does its popularity come at a cost to the environment?
                                • What’s Next?

                                  • Will Canadians buy into added-value milk?
                                    • Figure 23: Fairlife 2% Reduced Fat Ultra-Filtered Milk with DHA Omega-3 (US), August 2018
                                    • Figure 24: A2 Whole Milk (US), December 2018
                                    • Figure 25: Dairy Home Strawberry Drinking Yogurt (Thailand), July 2018
                                  • ‘Mooove’ over. Does dairy milk have to come from a cow?
                                  • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                    • Dairy milk’s popularity with Canadians is undeniable
                                      • Room exists for dairy and non-dairy milk in the Canadian market
                                        • Three considerations are top of mind for consumers
                                          • Different attributes are important when considering different types of milk
                                            • Moderating sugar in milk resonates with Canadians
                                            • Dairy Milk Usage

                                              • Dairy milk’s popularity with Canadians is undeniable
                                                • Figure 26: Types of dairy milk purchased in past three months, April 2019
                                              • Dairy milk usage varies among different age groups
                                                • Figure 27: Type of dairy milk purchased in past three months (select), 18-44s vs over-45s, April 2019
                                                • Figure 28: Type of dairy milk purchased in past three months (select), by parental status, April 2019
                                                • Figure 29: Type of dairy milk purchased in past three months (select), Chinese Canadians vs overall, April 2019
                                                • Figure 30: Type of dairy milk purchased in past three months (select), born in Canada vs not born in Canada, April 2019
                                            • Non-dairy Milk Usage

                                              • Room exists for dairy and non-dairy milk in the Canadian market
                                                • Figure 31: Dairy and non-dairy milk purchased in past three months, by dairy and non-dairy milk drinkers, April 2019
                                              • Almond milk remains the clear favourite for Canadians
                                                • Figure 32: Type of non-dairy milk purchased in past three months, April 2019
                                              • Oat milk represents an emerging opportunity
                                                • Figure 33: Oatly! The Original Oat-Milk (US), March 2019
                                              • Age and background impact the likelihood of non-dairy milk purchases
                                                • Figure 34: Non-dairy milk purchased in past three months, by age and parental status, April 2019
                                                • Figure 35: Types of non-dairy milk purchased in past three months, by parental status, April 2019
                                                • Figure 36: Types of non-dairy milk purchased in past three months, 18-44s vs over-45s, April 2019
                                                • Figure 37: Types of non-dairy milk purchased in past three months, Chinese Canadians vs overall, April 2019
                                                • Figure 38: Types of non-dairy milk purchased in past three months (select), urban vs suburban and rural regions, April 2019
                                            • Factors

                                              • Three considerations are top of mind for consumers
                                                • Figure 39: Important factors when choosing milk, April 2019
                                                • Figure 40: Importance of “no artificial hormones” as a factor when choosing milk, by gender, April 2019
                                              • Whether milk is ultra-filtered is of concern to a minority of consumers
                                                • Figure 41: Importance of “best-before date” as a factor when choosing milk, by age and parental status, April 2019
                                              • Health-related claims are ‘secondary’ considerations
                                                • Differences between dairy and non-dairy milk are evident
                                                  • Figure 42: Factors important to dairy and non-dairy milk purchasers, April 2019
                                              • Attributes

                                                • Different attributes are important when considering different types of milk
                                                  • Figure 43: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Perceptions, April 2019
                                                • Age impacts how Canadians view different types of milk
                                                  • Figure 44: Health-related associations with non-dairy milk, by age, April 2019
                                                  • Figure 45: Experience-related associations with non-dairy milk, by age, April 2019
                                                  • Figure 46: Associations of dairy and non-dairy milk with “tasty”, Chinese Canadians vs overall, April 2019
                                                • Chocolate milk is not just a treat for kids
                                                  • Figure 47: Associations related to being “good for a treat” and “kids like it” with flavoured dairy milk, by parental status, April 2019
                                                  • Figure 48: Association related to “kids like it” with whole cow’s milk, by ages of children in household, April 2019
                                              • Encouraging Milk Consumption

                                                • Moderating sugar in milk resonates with Canadians
                                                  • Figure 49: Claims that encourage Canadians to drink more milk, April 2019
                                                  • Figure 50: Claims that encourage Canadians to drink more milk, dairy vs non-dairy milk, April 2019
                                                • Added functionality encourages a quarter of Canadians to drink more milk
                                                  • Figure 51: Rebbl Banana Nut Protein Drink (US), November 2018
                                                • Less commonly considered benefits appeal to a subset of Canadians
                                                  • Figure 52: Beauty benefits as a claim that encourages Canadians to drink more milk, women 18-24 vs overall, April 2019
                                                  • Figure 53: Yakult Beauty Plus+ Drinking Yogurt Skin (South Korea), June 2018
                                              • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                • Data sources
                                                  • Consumer survey data
                                                    • Sales data
                                                      • Fan chart forecast
                                                        • Correspondence analysis
                                                          • Abbreviations and terms
                                                            • Abbreviations