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Carbonated Soft Drinks - UK - June 2019

Covered in this report

For the purpose of this report, the market size for carbonated soft drinks (CSD) includes sales through the following outlets:

  • Retail: This includes retail outlets where CSDs are purchased for the purpose of consumption off-premise, comprising supermarkets, convenience stores and petrol forecourts among others.
  • On-premise: This includes anywhere where CSDs are bought to consume on-site, eg leisure centres, hotels, restaurants, fast food venues, cafes, education establishments, the workplace and in the on-trade (ie pubs, bars, clubs)

All mainstream carbonated soft drinks are included in the market size. Diet carbonates are included. Mixers (including tonic water, ginger ale, soda water and bitter lemon) are included. Soda water differs from sparkling water because of the addition of sodium and its status as a mixer rather than a drink to be consumed on its own.

Adult soft drinks in the off-trade are provided as a separate segment and are not included in the market size under carbonated soft drinks. Both carbonated and still premium or adult soft drinks are included in the segment size.

“The shrinking population of key younger consumers, enduring concerns around sugar, and growing spotlight on single-use plastic waste pose challenges for the category going forward. The strong alcohol reduction trend meanwhile opens up new opportunities for CSDs to target. With few people seeing CSDs as a good alternative to alcoholic drinks, however, much depends on the industry’s efforts to more actively target this space.”

– Max Grünefeld, Food & Drink Analyst

This report examines the following issues:

  • Flavour NPD is needed to sustain engagement
  • Cooling and relaxing associations warrant attention as CSDs struggle on refreshing image

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Volume and value sales rise in 2018 despite SDIL
              • Figure 1: UK Value sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2014-24
            • Volume growth to slow amidst sugar and plastic concerns
              • Cola retains lead position as volumes fall and prices rise
                • Figure 2: Retail value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, by segment, 2018
              • Sugar spotlight sets the tone for product development
                • Summer heatwave cushions impact of SDIL
                  • Plastic waste is thrust into limelight
                    • Companies and brands
                      • Zero-sugar variants continue to drive growth
                        • Figure 3: Leading brand’s shares in the UK retail CSDs market, by value, 2018/19*
                      • Mixer brands see strong growth helped by the buoyant spirits market
                        • SDIL threshold sees rise in lower sugar reformulations
                          • Leading brands explore fruit variants, adult soft drinks look to alcohol cues
                            • Advertising spend continues to rise for a fifth year
                              • Mixer brands seen as highest quality
                                • The consumer
                                  • Diet/light drinks have a clear lead on usage
                                    • Figure 4: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by type, April 2019
                                  • Opportunities to explore fortification
                                    • Figure 5: Interest in product concepts in carbonated soft drinks, April 2019
                                  • New flavours can sustain engagement
                                    • Figure 6: Attitudes relating to carbonated soft drinks, April 2019
                                  • Cooling associations warrant further attention
                                    • Figure 7: Qualities associated with a refreshing drink, April 2019
                                  • ‘Refreshing’ and ‘enjoyable’ are the most common qualities associated with CSDs
                                    • Figure 8: Correspondence Analysis of qualities associated with selected soft drinks, April 2019
                                  • What we think
                                  • Issues and Insights

                                    • Flavour NPD is needed to sustain engagement
                                      • The facts
                                        • The implications
                                          • Cooling and relaxing associations warrant attention as CSDs struggle on refreshing image
                                            • The facts
                                              • The implications
                                              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                • Volume and value sales rise in 2018 despite SDIL
                                                  • Volume growth to slow amidst sugar and plastic concerns
                                                    • Cola retains lead position as volumes fall and prices rise
                                                      • Mixers remain in growth
                                                        • Sugar spotlight sets the tone for product development
                                                          • Plastic waste is thrust into limelight
                                                            • Summer heatwave cushions volume sales
                                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                                              • Value and volume sales rise
                                                                • Figure 9: UK Value sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2014-24
                                                              • Volume sales growth to slow after unpredictable 2018
                                                                • Figure 10: UK Volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2014-24
                                                              • Value sales set to continue upwards
                                                                • Figure 11: UK volume and value sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2014-24
                                                              • Forecast methodology
                                                              • Market Segmentation

                                                                • Cola continues dominance as prices rise and volume falls further
                                                                  • Figure 12: Retail value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks and adult drinks, by segment, 2016-18
                                                                • Mixer drinks go from strength to strength
                                                                  • Lemonade volume grows as brands push on zero sugar
                                                                  • Market Drivers

                                                                    • Focus on sugar bolsters consumer demand for healthier carbonated soft drinks
                                                                      • Soft Drinks Industry Levy came into force in April 2018
                                                                        • PHE publishes sugar reduction goals for juice-based drinks
                                                                          • Soft drink users opt primarily for healthy drinks
                                                                            • Spotlight on plastic waste affects CSDs
                                                                              • Plastic waste attracts mainstream visibility
                                                                                • Deposit return schemes on the cards in England and Scotland
                                                                                  • Plastic packaging tax announced for 2022
                                                                                    • Plastics Pact
                                                                                      • Heatwave boosts CSDs usage in summer 2018
                                                                                        • Figure 13: UK total sunshine hours, 2013-18
                                                                                      • Efforts to reduce alcohol intake create opportunities for CSDs
                                                                                      • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                        • Zero sugar variants continue to drive growth
                                                                                          • Coca-Cola remains category leader
                                                                                            • Mixer brands see strong growth helped by the buoyant spirits market
                                                                                              • SDIL threshold sees rise in lower sugar reformulations
                                                                                                • Leading brands continue to explore fruit variants
                                                                                                  • Adult soft drinks look to alcohol cues
                                                                                                    • Advertising spend continues to rise for a fifth year
                                                                                                      • Mixer brands seen as highest quality
                                                                                                      • Market Share

                                                                                                        • No-sugar varieties drive growth for Coke and Pepsi
                                                                                                          • Coca-Cola retains top position in CSDs
                                                                                                            • Coca-Cola Zero Sugar sees strongest growth among leading brands
                                                                                                              • Pepsi Max continues to outgrow other Pepsi variants
                                                                                                                • Figure 14: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks market, by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
                                                                                                              • Mixer brands grow amid continued growth in spirits market
                                                                                                                • Schweppes’ revamp and premium launch propel strong growth
                                                                                                                  • Figure 15: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks market, by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
                                                                                                                • Appletiser enjoys another year of strong growth
                                                                                                                  • Summer heatwave and marketing support sees J2O back in growth
                                                                                                                    • Figure 16: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail adult soft drinks market, by value and volume, 2017/18 and 2018/19
                                                                                                                • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                  • Launches undercutting SDIL threshold rise in 2017 and 2018
                                                                                                                    • Figure 17: Share of carbonated soft drinks launches, by sugar content, 2015-19*
                                                                                                                  • SDIL brings a lesser boost to launches with sugar claims
                                                                                                                    • Figure 18: Carbonated soft drinks launches by low and zero-sugar and L/N/R calorie claims, 2015-19*
                                                                                                                  • Design revamp moves Coke Zero Sugar closer to original variant
                                                                                                                    • 7UP Free updates design
                                                                                                                      • Leading brands continue to explore fruit variants
                                                                                                                        • Fanta draws on public opinion for new flavours
                                                                                                                          • Strong demand for newness
                                                                                                                            • Figure 19: Leading brands exploring more fruit flavours, 2018-19
                                                                                                                          • Tango introduces sugar-free range to recruit younger consumers
                                                                                                                            • Figure 20: Tango sugar-free launches, March 2019
                                                                                                                          • Brands further explore adult soft drinks
                                                                                                                            • ‘Spritz’ launches drive alcohol adjacency
                                                                                                                              • Figure 21: Shloer Spritzed and Pressed, Appletiser Spritzer, 2019
                                                                                                                            • Perrier + Juice launch targets health-conscious shoppers
                                                                                                                              • Green Monkey claims first UK CBD CSD
                                                                                                                                • Figure 22: Green Monkey CBD drink, March 2019
                                                                                                                              • CCGB launches Signature Mixers range
                                                                                                                                • Figure 23: Coca-Cola Great Britain line of signature mixers, May, 2019
                                                                                                                              • The vast majority of launches call out recyclability
                                                                                                                                • Figure 24: New product launches in the UK carbonated soft drinks market, by the ethical – environmentally friendly package claim, 2015-19
                                                                                                                              • Plastic packaging retains share of launches in 2018
                                                                                                                                • Figure 25: New product launches in the UK carbonated soft drinks market, by package material, 2015-19
                                                                                                                            • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                              • Advertising spend continues to rise
                                                                                                                                • Figure 26: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on carbonated soft drinks, by advertiser, 2015-19
                                                                                                                              • Coca-Cola remains highest spender in the category
                                                                                                                                • ‘One Way or Another’ ad sees Coke Zero Sugar in red packaging
                                                                                                                                  • Diet Coke refreshes brand ethos with ‘Put Perfect on Ice’ ad
                                                                                                                                    • Integrated campaign #cokedunks promotes recycling
                                                                                                                                      • ‘Where Everyone Plays’ ad promotes Premier League affiliation
                                                                                                                                        • Coke invests in Christmas with social media and festive flavours
                                                                                                                                          • Fanta launches biggest ever campaign for Halloween
                                                                                                                                            • Pepsi brings back the taste challenge with Max
                                                                                                                                              • Pepsi Max encourages new traditions for Christmas
                                                                                                                                                • 7UP Free celebrates redesign with ‘Feels Good to be Free’ campaign
                                                                                                                                                  • Fever-Tree engages on-trade through G&T Pub Garden Campaign
                                                                                                                                                    • Irn-Bru launches ad to inspire a new generation
                                                                                                                                                      • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                                                      • Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                          • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 27: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, May 2019
                                                                                                                                                          • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 28: Key metrics for selected brands, May 2019
                                                                                                                                                          • Schweppes and Fever-Tree are deemed to deliver most on quality
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 29: Attitudes, by brand, May 2019
                                                                                                                                                          • Pepsi Max, Diet Coke, Sprite, 7up and Irn-Bru all on a par in perceptions of being fun
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 30: Brand personality – Macro image, May 2019
                                                                                                                                                          • Sprite and 7up are lead associations with refreshment
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 31: Brand personality – Micro image, May 2019
                                                                                                                                                          • Brand analysis
                                                                                                                                                            • Fever-Tree stands out on sophistication and innovativeness
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 32: User profile of Fever-Tree, May 2019
                                                                                                                                                            • Schweppes wins on trust and has the most traditional image
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 33: User profile of Schweppes, May 2019
                                                                                                                                                            • Pepsi Max just beats Diet Coke on brand satisfaction
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 34: User profile of Pepsi Max, May 2019
                                                                                                                                                            • Diet Coke displays highest brand commitment
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 35: User profile of Diet Coke, May 2019
                                                                                                                                                            • Sprite and 7-up benefit from their connotations with refreshment
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 36: User profile of Sprite, May 2019
                                                                                                                                                            • 7up struggles to differentiate from Sprite
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 37: User profile of 7up, May 2019
                                                                                                                                                            • Irn-Bru lacks trust, with question marks over its quality
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 38: User profile of Irn-Bru, May 2019
                                                                                                                                                          • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                            • Diet/light drinks have a clear lead in usage
                                                                                                                                                              • Opportunities to explore fortification
                                                                                                                                                                • New flavours can sustain engagement
                                                                                                                                                                  • Cooling associations warrant further attention
                                                                                                                                                                    • ‘Refreshing’ and ‘enjoyable’ are the most common qualities associated with CSDs
                                                                                                                                                                    • Usage of Carbonated Soft Drinks

                                                                                                                                                                      • Two in three adults drink CSDs, diet/light variants enjoy a clear lead
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 39: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by type, April 2019
                                                                                                                                                                      • Majority of users drink both non-diet and diet drinks
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 40: Crossover in usage of non-diet and diet/light carbonated soft drinks, April 2019
                                                                                                                                                                      • Diet/light variants also lead on usage frequency
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 41: Frequency of usage of carbonated soft drinks, by non-diet and diet/light, April 2019
                                                                                                                                                                      • Diet/light stands ahead of sugary on usage across all ages
                                                                                                                                                                        • The most common place to drink CSDs is at home
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 42: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by type, by location, April 2019
                                                                                                                                                                        • 20% of people drink diet CSDs at restaurant pubs/bars
                                                                                                                                                                        • Interest in Product Features

                                                                                                                                                                          • One in three CSDs users is interested in vitamin/mineral fortification
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Interest in product concepts in carbonated soft drinks, April 2019
                                                                                                                                                                          • Lower carbonation appeals to 24%
                                                                                                                                                                            • Hints of spice can help drive interest
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 44: Product launches featuring spice as flavour components, UK 2017-18
                                                                                                                                                                          • Attitudes toward Carbonated Soft Drinks

                                                                                                                                                                            • Majority don’t feel they can justify home carbonation equipment
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 45: Attitudes relating to carbonated soft drinks, April 2019
                                                                                                                                                                            • New flavours can drive continued engagement
                                                                                                                                                                              • Gut health concerns pose a threat to CSDs
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 46: CSDs aligning with a gut health proposition, 2018-19
                                                                                                                                                                            • Qualities Associated with Refreshing Drinks

                                                                                                                                                                              • Cooling associations warrant further attention
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 47: Qualities associated with a refreshing drink, April 2019
                                                                                                                                                                              • Encouraging a perfectly chilled serve
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 48: Coors Light Thermochromic Indicator, UK 2019
                                                                                                                                                                              • Further scope to explore cooling flavours
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 49: San Pellegrino lemon and mint and Sprite Ice Mint, 2018-19
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 50: Fruit and berry flavoured CSDs with mint, 2017-18
                                                                                                                                                                              • One in four views a refreshing drink as relaxing
                                                                                                                                                                                • Putting relaxation centre stage in marketing
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Forging connotations with calm through traditional herbal ingredients
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 51: Selected CSD brands referencing relaxation on-pack, 2018-19
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Exploring energising qualities beyond caffeine
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 52: Selected CSD brands featuring ingredients associated with energy, 2017-18
                                                                                                                                                                                • Qualities Associated with Selected Soft Drinks

                                                                                                                                                                                  • ‘Refreshing’ and ‘enjoyable’ stand out as most common qualities
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Correspondence Analysis of qualities associated with selected soft drinks, April 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Qualities associated with selected soft drinks, April 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Room to grow in providing alcohol alternatives
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 55: UK Volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, best-and-worst-case forecast, 2019-24
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 56: UK value sales of carbonated soft drinks, best-and-worst-case forecast, 2019-24
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Forecast methodology

                                                                                                                                                                                            Carbonated Soft Drinks - UK - June 2019

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