Cheese - UK - October 2016
“The cheese market is expected to see a value decline in 2016, largely due to heavy retail discounting. Continued decline in the dominant cheddar segment has been responsible for the overall fall in cheese volume sales, while bolstered recipe cheese performance suggests consumers’ interest in scratch cooking continues. Pressure from consumers and the fallout from Brexit could finally put an end to dwindling average cheese prices.”
– Alyson Parkes, Research Analyst
This report examines the following issues:
- Fair pay for dairy farmers could build value for British cheese
- Cheese needs new usage occasions as sliced bread sales fall
- Scope for cheese to capitalise on protein trend
Cheddar’s share of the market by value is expected to continue falling, to less than half. Its key usage with bread looks to hamper growth as sliced bread sales struggle, underlining the ongoing need to expand other occasions. Processed and recipe cheese are expected to fare better with projected value and volume sales growth in 2016.
Pressure from consumers and increased global demand for dairy have halted the fall in farmgate milk prices, also starting to put upward pressure on cheese prices. With the Sterling weakening amidst the UK Brexit vote fallout, import prices look set for a sharp rise with export demand also bolstered. Cheese makers may see increased competition for milk resources.
With the PHE (Public Health England) cutting the dairy intake recommendation level in 2016, the protein content of cheese could offer a platform for operators to keep cheese on the menu for health-aware shoppers by tapping into the ongoing interest here. These can also appeal to the younger generation, who are particularly likely to look for protein-rich foods.
This Report examines the UK retail market for cheese. For the purposes of this Report, Mintel’s definition includes products sold through the grocery retail channel and direct to consumers including:
- Fresh cheese and cream cheese
- Hard cheese and semi-hard cheese
- Processed cheese
- Soft cheese and semi-soft cheese.
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