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China New Energy Cars Market Report

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the New Energy Cars market, and the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

What are the key challenges facing the industry and how fast are its rates of growth? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

Covered in this Report

This Report tracks the evolvements of government regulations at different stages, analyses the competitive strategies and innovations of market participants, and investigates car buyers’ perception and purchasing willingness towards new energy cars.

Definition

Pure electric passenger cars are defined as passenger cars that are fully powered by electricity, eg Tesla Model S, BAIC EC180. Plug-in hybrid electric passenger cars are defined as passenger cars that are partially powered by electricity, by using rechargeable batteries that can be recharged by plugging into an external electric power source. Typical models are BYD Qin, ROEWE eRX5.

Fuel cell electric passenger cars are passenger cars that run on a fuel other than traditional petroleum fuels, eg ROEWE Fuel Cell 950. These vehicles are not included in the market sizing and consumer research.

Mintel divides consumers into three groups based on their monthly household income (MHI) and their residential cities.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Aaron Guo, a leading analyst in the Automotive sector, his extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

The core buyers of EVs (electric vehicles) have been skewing from 40-49-year-olds to 30-39-year-olds with high household incomes, suggesting the core car buyers in China are gradually picking up a more welcoming attitude towards such vehicles. 25-29-year-olds, especially males, continue to have concerns towards such vehicles, eg safety. The good news is that they believe new energy cars will be the future mainstream. It seems that they are currently ‘spiritual supporters’, but they could be converted to purchasers when there are more convincing models available on the market. Aaron Guo
Senior Analyst

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Covered in this Report
        • Definition
          • Figure 1: Definition of different monthly household income groups, by city tier, November 2016
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Figure 2: Best- and worst-case forecast of total new passenger car sales volume, China, 2012-22
          • Companies and brands
            • Figure 3: New energy passenger car brand market share, 2015-17
          • The consumer
            • ‘Transumers’ appear more often on buses
              • Figure 4: Daily commuting method, December 2017
            • A trading up trend
              • Figure 5: New energy car brand awareness, claim rate on ‘I recognise both the brand name and brand logo’, 2017 vs 2016
            • 30-34-year-olds are now the key audience group
              • Figure 6: Attitudes towards new energy cars, December 2017
            • Pure electric car buyers are becoming younger
              • Figure 7: New energy car purchasing plan, December 2017
            • 400km range is enough for most drivers
              • Figure 8: Spontaneous requirement on endurance, coded from open question, by hybrid and pure electric car buyer, December 2017
            • More divided target price compared to conventional car buyers
              • Figure 9: Planned purchasing price, by new energy car buyers and conventional car buyers, December 2017
            • What we think
            • Issues and Insights

              • Local new energy start-ups are facing a round of reshuffle
                • The facts
                  • The implications
                    • Drive up the spontaneous willingness of new energy car buyers
                      • The facts
                        • The implications
                          • How to convince buyers with range anxiety?
                            • The facts
                              • The implications
                                • Figure 10: Weltmeister’s interactive window display
                            • The Market – What You Need to Know

                              • Accounting for 2.2% of new passenger car sales
                                • A CAGR of 25.5% in the next five years to 2022
                                  • Further tightened subsidy policy
                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                    • Growth rate remains on the high level in 2017
                                      • Figure 11: Sales volume and growth rate of new energy passenger cars in China, 2011-17
                                    • Accounting for 2.2% of new passenger car sales
                                      • Figure 12: Share of sales volume of new energy passenger cars among new passenger car sales, 2011-17
                                    • New energy SUVs are gaining power
                                      • Figure 13: Share of different types of new passenger car models, 2016 and 2017
                                    • Estimated to grow with a CAGR of 25.5% in the next five years
                                      • Figure 14: Best- and worst-case forecast of total new passenger car sales volume, China, 2012-22
                                  • Market Factors

                                    • Free of purchasing tax for three more years…
                                      • …yet with further tightened subsidy policy
                                        • Figure 15: The latest new energy passenger car subsidy policy of Central Government, 2017 vs 2018
                                        • Figure 16: Energy density coefficient, 2018
                                        • Figure 17: Energy efficiency coefficient, 2018
                                      • The extra requirement of local governments
                                        • Figure 18: Subsidy rule of Wuhan local government, 2018
                                      • New energy car battery recycling management regulation
                                        • Infrastructure construction
                                        • Market Segmentation

                                          • Pure electric cars continue to dominate the market
                                            • Figure 19: Best- and worst-case forecast of pure electric passenger car sales volume, China, 2012-22
                                          • Only 15% of new energy cars sold in 2022 will be hybrids
                                            • Figure 20: Best- and worst-case forecast of hybrid electric passenger car sales volume, China, 2012-22
                                          • The trading up trend also exists in the pure electric car sector
                                          • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                            • Struggling low-end players
                                              • Car sharing business as a strategy
                                                • Define ‘luxury’ using the new energy language
                                                • Market Share

                                                  • BAIC is challenging the dominating position of BYD, for now
                                                    • Figure 21: New energy passenger car brand market share, 2015-17
                                                  • A market with intense rivalry
                                                    • Figure 22: Top 10 selling new energy passenger car models, 2017
                                                • Competitive Strategies

                                                  • Determination revealed from the method of battery production
                                                    • Entering into the car sharing industry
                                                    • Who’s Innovating?

                                                      • Battery exchange mode back in discussion
                                                        • Re-define ‘luxury’ in the new energy era
                                                          • Figure 23: The interior design of Porsche Mission E Cross Turismo
                                                          • Figure 24: Additional storage space in centre console of I PACE
                                                      • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                        • 30-34-year-olds are now the key audience group of new energy cars
                                                          • 25-29-year-olds have concerns on safety
                                                            • A 400km threshold line for endurance range
                                                            • Daily Commuting Method

                                                              • Bus is the top commuting method
                                                                • Figure 25: Daily commuting method, December 2017
                                                              • Significantly more first-time car buyers appear on buses
                                                                • Figure 26: Gap between intended car buyers and car owners (as benchmark) on commuting method used, December 2017
                                                              • Commuting preferences differ by region
                                                                • Figure 27: The usage rate of selected daily commuting method, by region, December 2017
                                                            • New Energy Car Brand Awareness

                                                              • BYD remains the top in terms of brand awareness
                                                                • Figure 28: New energy car brand awareness, claim rate on ‘I recognise both the brand name and brand logo’, 2017 vs 2016
                                                              • Changing core audiences of certain new energy car brands
                                                                • Figure 29: Age group with the highest brand awareness, 2016 vs 2017
                                                            • Attitudes towards New Energy Cars

                                                              • Generally positive attitudes towards new energy cars
                                                                • Figure 30: Attitudes towards new energy cars, December 2017
                                                              • 25-29-year-olds have deeper concerns
                                                                • Figure 31: Claim rates on strongly agree, by gender and age, December 2017
                                                              • The four groups of new energy car buyers
                                                                • Figure 32: Segmentations of new energy car buyers, December 2017
                                                                • Figure 33: Attitudes towards new energy car, % of strongly agree, by consumer segmentation, December 2017
                                                            • Purchase Willingness

                                                              • The drop in subsidy affects purchasing willingness
                                                                • Figure 34: New energy car purchasing plan, December 2017
                                                              • Core buyers of hybrid cars remain stable
                                                                • Younger pure electric car buyers
                                                                  • Pure electric models are considered more by sophisticated car buyers
                                                                    • Next EV (NIO) and BAIC have potential in the pure electric era
                                                                      • Figure 35: Gap between pure electric car buyers and hybrid car buyers (as benchmark) on brand awareness, December 2017
                                                                  • Endurance Requirement

                                                                    • An endurance of 400km can meet the requirements of most buyers
                                                                      • Figure 36: Spontaneous requirement on endurance, coded from open question, by hybrid and pure electric car buyer, December 2017
                                                                    • 35-39-year-olds have the highest expectations
                                                                      • Figure 37: Average requirement on endurance, by age, December 2017
                                                                  • New Energy Car Purchase Price

                                                                    • Separated budget allocation compared to conventional car buyers
                                                                      • Figure 38: Planned purchasing price, by new energy car buyers and conventional car buyers, December 2017
                                                                    • Supporters and Followers are the key buyers
                                                                      • Figure 39: Planned purchasing price, by consumer cluster, December 2017
                                                                  • Meet the Mintropolitans

                                                                    • MinTs are more satisfied with the current development
                                                                      • Figure 40: Gap between MinTs and Non-MinTs on attitudes towards new energy cars, claim rates on ‘strongly agree’, December 2017
                                                                    • More Supporters and Followers among MinTs
                                                                      • Figure 41: Consumer segmentation, by MinTs and Non-MinTs, December 2017
                                                                    • MinTs consider pure electric cars more
                                                                    • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                        • Figure 42: Total market volume of new energy cars, 2012-22
                                                                    • Appendix – Market Segmentation

                                                                        • Figure 43: Total market volume of pure electric new energy cars, 2012-22
                                                                        • Figure 44: Total market volume of plug-in electric new energy cars, 2012-22
                                                                    • Appendix – Methodology and Abbreviations

                                                                      • Methodology
                                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                                          • Abbreviations