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Description

Description

“Chocolate confectionery is a mature category that’s seeing some of its strong grip on the hearts of consumers loosen. As other snack categories make a play for indulgence, and offer BFY positioning, consumers are playing the field. While the COVID-19 pandemic will be a good reminder that little hits the spot in the way chocolate does, the category will need to brace for a return to normalcy, redoubling efforts to provide enjoyment, and provide options for responsible snacking.”

– Beth Bloom, Associate Director, US Food and Drink reports

This report covers thwe following issues:

  • The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and the chocolate confectionery market.
  • The issues to keep in mind in the event of a longer-term recession.
  • The important role sugar reduction will have on the category moving forward.
  • Perceptions of chocolate confectionery and how it is/is not meeting the needs of snackers.

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Key issues covered in this Report
        • Definition
        • Executive Summary

            • Market overview
              • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
            • Top takeaways
              • Impact of COVID-19 on chocolate confectionery
                • Figure 2: Short-, medium- and longer-term impact of COVID-19 on chocolate confectionery, May 2020
              • The issues
                • Chocolate confectionery wins among sweet treats, but could use a boost
                  • Sugar avoidance is real
                    • Figure 3: Reasons for eating less chocolate confectionery, February 2020
                  • Little guys have a steep uphill climb, but can gain footing
                    • Figure 4: Chocolate confectionery purchase factors, February 2020
                  • The opportunities
                    • Seasonal and sugar free segments see strongest growth
                      • Figure 5: Total US sales of chocolate confectionery, by segment share, 2017-19
                    • Packaging and flavor innovation can be differentiators
                      • Figure 6: Reasons for eating more chocolate confectionery, February 2020
                    • Boosting online sales of chocolate
                      • Figure 7: Chocolate confectionery purchase location, February 2020
                  • The Impact of COVID-19 on Chocolate Confectionery

                      • Figure 8: Short, medium and longer term impact of COVID-19 on chocolate confection, May 2020
                    • Opportunities and Threats
                      • Consumers are eating their feelings
                        • Figure 9: Snack motivations, November 2018
                      • Brand pecking order could be up for grabs
                        • Figure 10: Perception of food/drink brands, February 2019
                      • eChocolate and DTC meet consumer cravings where they need them
                        • Figure 11: Coronavirus lifestyle changes – online shopping, May 28, 2020-June 4, 2020
                      • Snack sizes should crawl out of slump
                        • Seasonal will need some extra attention
                          • Sooner than later we’ll have to put our real clothes on
                            • Impact on the chocolate confectionery market
                              • Category should see a welcomed 2020 bump from COVID-19, but not all segments will be treated equally
                                • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
                              • How the crisis will affect chocolate confectionery’s key consumers
                                • Young shoppers may be drawn further toward PL and value snacks
                                  • Chocolaty reward systems now adult friendly
                                    • How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the chocolate confectionery industry
                                      • Longer-term financial strain on individuals will extend to discretionary purchases
                                        • COVID-19: Chocolate confectionery context
                                        • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                          • Chocolate confectionery sales tempered amid a bustling snack market
                                            • Growth in seasonal and sugar free highlights interest in variety, health
                                              • Snack categories only manage small gains during a snack heyday
                                                • Majority of consumers are limiting sugar consumption
                                                • Market Size and Forecast

                                                    • Chocolate confectionery limited to slow creep amid snack boom
                                                      • Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                      • Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                  • Market Breakdown

                                                    • Seasonal and sugar-free segments see strongest growth
                                                      • Figure 15: Total US sales of chocolate confectionery, by segment share, 2017-19
                                                    • Declines in snack size should be recovered due to COVID-19
                                                      • Gift boxes could also use the pandemic as a time of reinvention
                                                        • Figure 16: Total US sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, by segment, 2014-24
                                                      • Drug stores lose share of chocolate confectionery sales
                                                        • Figure 17: Total US retail sales of chocolate confectionery, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
                                                    • Market Perspective

                                                      • Snack boom doesn’t ensure boom times for all snack categories
                                                        • Figure 18: Percentage growth in select snack categories, 2014-19
                                                        • Figure 19: Dessert and confection consumption, March 2020
                                                      • Get the other snack categories covered
                                                      • Market Factors

                                                        • Majority of consumers aim to follow a healthy diet; sugar reduction is a primary focus
                                                          • Figure 20: Sweetener usage trend, September 2018
                                                        • Where chocolate doesn’t convey health, it can suffice for wellbeing
                                                            • Figure 21: 2020 health and wellness goals – Any do (net), November 2019
                                                          • Fun and function are on par for snackers
                                                            • Figure 22: Snack motivations, November 2018
                                                        • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                                          • Hershey continues category dominance, private label sees strong growth
                                                            • Sugar content going in the wrong direction
                                                              • Plain chocolate leads among launches, but innovation points to variety
                                                                • Ethical claims on the rise, should stick around
                                                                • Company and Brand Sales of Chocolate Confectionery

                                                                  • Hershey continues category dominance, private label sees strong growth
                                                                    • Figure 23: Share of sales chocolate confectionery, by company, 52 weeks ending February 23, 2020
                                                                    • Figure 24: Sales of chocolate confectionery, by company, 52 weeks ending February 24, 2019 and 52 weeks ending February 23, 2020
                                                                • What’s Working

                                                                  • Four in 10 chocolate launches are seasonal
                                                                    • Figure 25: Chocolate launches, by sub-category, 2018-20*
                                                                  • Ethical claims rise to the top
                                                                    • Figure 26: Chocolate launches, by leading claims, 2018-20*
                                                                  • No added sugar claims grows by 247%, but more can be done
                                                                    • Figure 27: Chocolate launches, by fasted growing claims, 2018-20*
                                                                    • Figure 28: Chocolate launches, by sugar total, 2018-20*
                                                                    • Figure 29: Multi-outlet sales of sugar free chocolate confectionery, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                                  • Plain chocolate leads, fast growing flavors show needed variety
                                                                    • Figure 30: Chocolate launches, by leading flavors, 2018-20*
                                                                    • Figure 31: Chocolate launches, by fastest growing flavors, 2018-20*
                                                                  • Good value drives purchase intent
                                                                    • Trustworthy brands provide value, encourage trial
                                                                      • Private label success points to shifting priorities
                                                                        • Figure 32: Multi-outlet sales of box/bag/bar >3.5 oz chocolate confectionery, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                                        • Figure 33: Multi-outlet sales of box/bag/bar <3.5 oz chocolate confectionery, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                                    • What’s Struggling

                                                                      • Private label seasonal loses interest
                                                                        • Figure 34: Multi-outlet sales of seasonal chocolate confectionery, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                                      • Snack size stalls at MULO
                                                                        • Figure 35: Multi-outlet sales of snack size chocolate confectionery, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                                      • Gift boxes nose dive, a refresh is in order
                                                                        • Figure 36: Multi-outlet sales of chocolate gift boxes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                                      • Health driven by healthy mix-ins and diet tie-ins, hampered by price
                                                                      • What to Watch

                                                                        • Could honey hit the sweet spot?
                                                                          • Specialized diet offerings could lead to mainstream innovation
                                                                            • Dairy free is a natural area of opportunity
                                                                              • Will ruby chocolate find a home in the US?
                                                                              • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                • Household penetration of chocolate confectionery has dipped since 2018
                                                                                  • A quarter of chocolate eaters have more recently increased consumption
                                                                                    • Increased snacking drives increased chocolate consumption, not enough
                                                                                      • Store brands don’t have strong resonance, for now
                                                                                        • Chocolate confectionery needs to strengthen case as treat of choice
                                                                                        • Chocolate Confectionery Consumption

                                                                                            • Household penetration of chocolate confectionery dips
                                                                                              • Figure 37: Chocolate confectionery purchase, February 2018 and February 2020
                                                                                            • Small sizes appeal to women
                                                                                              • Figure 38: Share of chocolate purchase – for self, by gender, February 2020
                                                                                            • Reinventing the boxed segment could find favor with under 45s
                                                                                              • Figure 39: Share of chocolate purchase – for self, by age, February 2020
                                                                                            • Snack size finds particular interest among parents
                                                                                              • Figure 40: Chocolate purchase, by parental status, February 2020
                                                                                              • Figure 41: Chocolate purchase – for child, February 2020
                                                                                            • Chocolate eaters like variety
                                                                                              • Figure 42: Repertoire analysis – Chocolate purchase – For myself, February 2020
                                                                                            • Solid chocolate leads, followed by nut mix-ins
                                                                                              • Figure 43: Perceptions of candy types – Something I eat, February 2020
                                                                                            • Women are strong target for simple options
                                                                                              • Figure 44: Perceptions of candy types – Something I eat, by gender, February 2020
                                                                                            • Hispanics gravitate toward nut mix-ins
                                                                                              • Figure 45: Perceptions of candy types – Something I eat, by Hispanic origin, February 2020
                                                                                          • Change in Chocolate Confectionery Consumption

                                                                                              • A quarter of chocolate eaters have increased consumption in the past year
                                                                                                • Figure 46: Change in chocolate confectionery consumption, February 2020
                                                                                              • Increased snacking drives increased chocolate consumption
                                                                                                • Figure 47: Reasons for eating more chocolate confectionery, February 2020
                                                                                              • Men are driving the increase in chocolate consumption
                                                                                                • Figure 48: Change in chocolate confectionery consumption, by gender, February 2020
                                                                                              • Category health innovation not resonating with women
                                                                                                • Figure 49: Reasons for eating more chocolate confectionery, by gender, February 2020
                                                                                              • Time savings and variety appeal to under 45s
                                                                                                • Figure 50: Reasons for eating more chocolate confectionery, by age, February 2020
                                                                                              • Sugar avoidance challenges chocolate consumption
                                                                                                • Figure 51: Reasons for eating less chocolate confectionery, February 2020
                                                                                              • Older shoppers are health aware, younger shoppers price conscious
                                                                                                • Figure 52: Reasons for eating less chocolate confectionery, by age, February 2020
                                                                                            • Types of Chocolate Confectionery Purchased

                                                                                              • Style
                                                                                                • Milk chocolate leads, but variety will help spur trial
                                                                                                  • Figure 53: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - style, February 2020
                                                                                                • Interest in dark chocolate grows with age
                                                                                                  • Figure 54: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - style, by age, February 2020
                                                                                                • Parents can be targeted with products across the range
                                                                                                  • Figure 55: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - style, by parental status, February 2020
                                                                                                • Dark chocolate not as likely to resonate with Hispanic shoppers
                                                                                                  • Figure 56: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - style, by Hispanic origin, February 2020
                                                                                                • Seasonal
                                                                                                  • Christmas and Valentine’s lead seasonal purchase
                                                                                                    • Figure 57: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Seasonal, February 2020
                                                                                                  • Women likely look to holidays for permission to indulge
                                                                                                    • Figure 58: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Seasonal, by gender, February 2020
                                                                                                  • Seasonal options are a luxury of higher-earning households
                                                                                                    • Figure 59: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Seasonal, by HH income, February 2020
                                                                                                  • Parents are strong targets for seasonal purchase
                                                                                                    • Figure 60: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Seasonal, by parental status, February 2020
                                                                                                  • Features
                                                                                                    • Store brands don’t have strong resonance, for now
                                                                                                      • Figure 61: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Features, February 2020
                                                                                                    • Younger shoppers are more open to store brand chocolate
                                                                                                      • Figure 62: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Features, by age, February 2020
                                                                                                    • Only a quarter of parents look for chocolate aimed at kids
                                                                                                      • Figure 63: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Features, by parental status, February 2020
                                                                                                  • Chocolate Confectionery Purchase Location

                                                                                                      • Drug stores play an amplified role in chocolate confectionery purchase
                                                                                                        • Figure 64: Chocolate confectionery purchase location, February 2020
                                                                                                      • Youngest adults prefer mass channels; 25-44s should be nurtured online
                                                                                                        • Figure 65: Chocolate confectionery purchase location, by age, February 2020
                                                                                                      • Convenience store own brands have a strong chance at resonance
                                                                                                        • Figure 66: Chocolate confectionery purchase location, by type – store brands, February 2020
                                                                                                      • Parents get chocolate wherever they can
                                                                                                        • Figure 67: Chocolate confectionery purchase location, by parental status, February 2020
                                                                                                      • A quarter of buyers of chocolate aimed at kids purchase chocolate online
                                                                                                        • Figure 68: Chocolate confectionery purchase location, by type – aimed at kids, February 2020
                                                                                                    • Chocolate Confectionery Purchase Factors

                                                                                                        • Brand plays a strong role in chocolate purchase; little guys aren’t totally edged out
                                                                                                          • Second-tier drivers (flavor variety and health) have led increase in consumption
                                                                                                            • Interest in third-tier specialty offerings grows, presents opportunity for differentiation
                                                                                                              • Figure 69: Chocolate confectionery purchase factors, February 2020
                                                                                                            • Specialty offerings find a larger audience among younger shoppers, pointing to future of category
                                                                                                              • Figure 70: Chocolate confectionery purchase factors, by age, February 2020
                                                                                                            • Dark chocolate buyers seek specialized claims, milk could take a cue
                                                                                                              • Figure 71: Chocolate confectionery purchase factors, by style, February 2020
                                                                                                          • Perception of Snack Types

                                                                                                            • Chocolate confectionery wins among sweet treats, but could use a boost
                                                                                                              • Highlight pleasure and enjoyment
                                                                                                                • Working toward wellness, but not winning
                                                                                                                  • Figure 72: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Sweet snack comparison, February 2020
                                                                                                                  • Figure 73: Sweet snack comparison, February 2020
                                                                                                              • Perception of Confectionery Types

                                                                                                                • Chocolate is under-delivering on fun
                                                                                                                  • Nuts and fruit can help with health appeal
                                                                                                                    • Figure 74: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Candy comparison, February 2020
                                                                                                                    • Figure 75: Candy comparison, February 2020
                                                                                                                • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                                                                  • Data sources
                                                                                                                    • Sales data
                                                                                                                      • Consumer survey data
                                                                                                                        • Correspondence analysis methodology
                                                                                                                          • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                              • Terms
                                                                                                                              • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                                                                  • Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of box/bag/bar >3.5 oz chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 77: Total US retail sales and forecast of box/bag/bar >3.5 oz chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 78: Total US retail sales and forecast of box/bag/bar <3.5 oz chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 79: Total US retail sales and forecast of box/bag/bar <3.5 oz chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 80: Total US retail sales and forecast of seasonal chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 81: Total US retail sales and forecast of seasonal chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 82: Total US retail sales and forecast of snack size chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 83: Total US retail sales and forecast of snack size chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 84: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate gift boxes, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 85: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate gift boxes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 86: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar free chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 87: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar free chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Retail Channels

                                                                                                                                  • Figure 88: US supermarket sales of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 89: US drug store sales of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 90: US convenience store sales of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 91: US sales of chocolate confectionery through other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                                                                  • Figure 92: Multi-outlet sales of chocolate confectionery, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020

                                                                                                                              About the report

                                                                                                                              This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                                                                                                              • The Consumer

                                                                                                                                What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                                                                                                              • The Competitors

                                                                                                                                Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                                                                                                              • The Market

                                                                                                                                Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                                                                                                              • The Innovations

                                                                                                                                New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                                                                                                              • The Opportunities

                                                                                                                                Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                                                                                                              • The Trends

                                                                                                                                What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                                                                                                              Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

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