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Cider - UK - January 2018

“Smaller servings are a promising means for cider companies to attract custom in both the off- and on-trade. These should appeal to the health-conscious through lower alcohol units and calories, and also financially through a lower item price. This latter is arguably especially needed given the pressure on household incomes.”
– Alice Baker, Research Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • More detailed in-store grouping would be welcomed by many
  • Smaller servings appeal in both the off- and on-trade
  • Consumer sugar concerns present both a challenge and an opportunity

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Inflation is the primary driver of cider value sales growth in 2012-17
              • Inflation and limited volume sales expected for 2017-22
                • Figure 1: Total UK value sales of cider, 2012-22
              • Summer weather boosts sales in the off- and on-trade in 2017
                • UK government adds to financial pressure on companies
                  • Health organisations warn of the dangers of alcohol
                    • Companies and brands
                      • Strongbow remains the retail market leader, but loses volume sales
                        • Figure 2: Leading brands’ sales in the UK retail cider market, by value, 2016/17*
                      • Smaller formats and premiumisation trends continue in 2017
                        • More crossover brands enter the cider category
                          • Advertising spend on cider falls in 2016
                            • Heineken remains the leading advertiser in 2016/17
                              • Strongbow has the highest usage, but Kopparberg is most trusted brand
                                • The consumer
                                  • Half of UK adults drink cider
                                    • Figure 3: Usage of cider, by flavour, October 2017
                                  • Ageing population to impede market growth
                                    • At home cider usage prevails over the on-trade
                                      • Retailer tactics underpin low brand loyalty
                                        • Figure 4: Cider buying habits, October 2017
                                      • Three quarters of drinkers/buyers want ciders to be grouped in-store by flavour profile
                                        • Figure 5: Behaviours relating to cider, October 2017
                                      • Widely-held view of cider as good value should help to cushion the market against cutbacks
                                        • Figure 6: Attitudes towards cider, October 2017
                                      • What we think
                                      • Issues and Insights

                                        • More detailed in-store grouping would be welcomed by many
                                          • The facts
                                            • The implications
                                              • Smaller servings appeal in both the off- and on-trade
                                                • The facts
                                                  • The implications
                                                    • Consumer sugar concerns present both a challenge and an opportunity
                                                      • The facts
                                                        • The implications
                                                        • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                          • Inflation is the primary driver of cider value sales growth in 2012-17
                                                            • Inflation and limited volume sales expected for 2017-22
                                                              • Summer weather boosts sales in the off- and on-trade in 2017
                                                                • UK government adds to financial pressure on companies
                                                                  • Health organisations warn of the dangers of alcohol
                                                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                    • Cider volume sales enjoy modest growth in 2017
                                                                      • Inflation expected for 2017-22, but less strong than in 2017
                                                                        • Ageing UK population to diminish volume sales in 2017-22
                                                                          • Figure 7: Total UK value and volume sales of cider, 2012-22
                                                                          • Figure 8: Total UK value sales of cider, 2012-22
                                                                        • Forecast methodology
                                                                        • Channels to Market

                                                                          • Higher prices in the on-trade allow it to lead on values but not volumes
                                                                            • Figure 9: Value and volume sales of cider in the off- and on-trade, 2012-17
                                                                          • Summer weather boosts cider sales in both channels in 2017
                                                                          • Market Drivers

                                                                            • Various economic factors affect cider
                                                                              • Widely-held views of cider as good value should cushion the market amid rising pressure on household incomes
                                                                                • Rise in alcohol duties and inflation raise costs for cider companies
                                                                                  • UK Supreme Court approves alcohol minimum unit price plans in Scotland
                                                                                    • Consumers’ alcohol reduction leaves the category exposed
                                                                                      • Health organisations urge measures to curb alcohol consumption
                                                                                        • Consumers’ sugar concerns affect cider
                                                                                          • Ageing UK population to hinder cider volume sales growth
                                                                                            • Cider’s weather dependence adds an unpredictable element
                                                                                              • Figure 10: Sunshine hours in the UK, by month, 2012-17
                                                                                          • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                            • Strongbow remains the retail market leader, but loses volume sales
                                                                                              • Smaller formats and premiumisation trends continue in 2017
                                                                                                • More crossover brands enter the cider category
                                                                                                  • Advertising spend on cider falls in 2016
                                                                                                    • Heineken remains the leading advertiser in 2016/17
                                                                                                      • Strongbow has the highest usage, but Kopparberg is most trusted brand
                                                                                                      • Market Share

                                                                                                        • Strongbow remains the leading retail cider brand, but loses volume sales as competition increases
                                                                                                          • Figure 11: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail cider market, 2014/15-2016/17
                                                                                                          • Figure 12: Leading brand owners’ sales and shares in the UK cider retail market, 2014/15-2016/17
                                                                                                        • Kopparberg gains sales as it wins shelf space
                                                                                                          • Increased advertising spend boosts Thatchers
                                                                                                            • Molson Coors takes over Aspall
                                                                                                              • Lambrini recovers sales in stagnant perry market
                                                                                                                • Figure 13: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail perry market, 2014/15-2016/17
                                                                                                                • Figure 14: Leading brand owners’ sales and shares in the UK retail perry market, 2014/15-2016/17
                                                                                                            • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                              • Premium launches emphasise their heritage
                                                                                                                • More diversity in packaging formats
                                                                                                                  • Further expansion in smaller cans
                                                                                                                    • Brothers promotes its cider cartons as suited to outdoor events
                                                                                                                      • Further growth in flavoured ciders
                                                                                                                        • More crossover brands enter the cider category
                                                                                                                          • Jack Daniel’s unveils cider/Bourbon whiskey blend
                                                                                                                            • Craft brewer launches ciders and perry
                                                                                                                              • Shepherd Neame moves into cider
                                                                                                                                • Bulmers focuses on its farmers
                                                                                                                                • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                  • Heineken continues to lead advertising in 2016 amid fall in overall spend
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 15: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cider and perry, 2013-17 (sorted by 2016)
                                                                                                                                  • Heineken concentrates on Strongbow in 2016/17
                                                                                                                                    • Strongbow continues the ‘Let’s Own It’ campaign
                                                                                                                                      • Bulmers promotes Orchard Pioneers with idyllic countryside imagery
                                                                                                                                        • Old Mout continues its focus on adventure…
                                                                                                                                          • …and urges people to help save the kiwi bird
                                                                                                                                            • Thatchers emphasizes its perfectionism
                                                                                                                                              • Farm footage used to project image of transparency
                                                                                                                                                • Kopparberg continues the ‘Fånga Dagen’ campaign
                                                                                                                                                  • Music events continue enjoyment focus while also highlighting socially responsible credentials
                                                                                                                                                    • Social media campaign throws the spotlight on its hometown
                                                                                                                                                      • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                                                      • Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                          • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 16: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, December 2017
                                                                                                                                                          • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 17: Key metrics for selected brands, December 2017
                                                                                                                                                          • Brand attitudes: Kopparberg is the most widely seen as worth paying more for
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 18: Attitudes, by brand, December 2017
                                                                                                                                                          • Brand personality: Strongbow and Magners score well on accessibility
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 19: Brand personality – Macro image, December 2017
                                                                                                                                                          • Kopparberg is the most widely seen as delicious
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 20: Brand personality – Micro image, December 2017
                                                                                                                                                          • Brand analysis
                                                                                                                                                            • Kopparberg is the most trusted and recommended brand
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 21: User profile of Kopparberg, December 2017
                                                                                                                                                            • Westons has associations with tradition and authenticity
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 22: User profile of Westons, December 2017
                                                                                                                                                            • Thatchers also scores well on tradition and authenticity
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 23: User profile of Thatchers, December 2017
                                                                                                                                                            • Magners is widely seen as accessible and fun
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 24: User profile of Magners, December 2017
                                                                                                                                                            • Strongbow is the most widely seen as good value
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 25: User profile of Strongbow, December 2017
                                                                                                                                                            • Lambrini performs well on the fun factor
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 26: User profile of Lambrini, December 2017
                                                                                                                                                          • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                            • Half of UK adults drink cider
                                                                                                                                                              • Ageing population to impede market growth
                                                                                                                                                                • At home cider usage prevails over the on-trade
                                                                                                                                                                  • Retailer tactics underpin low brand loyalty
                                                                                                                                                                    • Three quarters of drinkers/buyers want ciders to be grouped in-store by flavour profile
                                                                                                                                                                      • Widely-held view of cider as good value should help to cushion the market against cutbacks
                                                                                                                                                                      • Usage of Cider

                                                                                                                                                                        • Half of UK adults drink cider
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 27: Usage of cider, by flavour, October 2017
                                                                                                                                                                        • Ageing UK population to hinder market growth
                                                                                                                                                                          • Half of cider drinkers have moved on from the brands of their youth
                                                                                                                                                                            • More men than women drink cider by beer brewers
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 28: Usage of different types of cider, October 2017
                                                                                                                                                                            • Significant overlap in usage of craft and standard ciders
                                                                                                                                                                            • Usage Occasions for Cider

                                                                                                                                                                              • At home cider usage prevails over the on-trade
                                                                                                                                                                                • Smaller servings of cider in the on-trade appeal to many
                                                                                                                                                                                  • ‘Cider lists’ on menus allow venues to showcase their cider selection
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 29: Usage occasions for cider, October 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Dish-matching suggestions on labels would encourage drinking as meal accompaniment
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Opportunities for dish-pairing suggestions on menus
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Cider is more likely to be chosen for casual than formal occasions
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Brands look to build associations with special occasions with wine-style bottles
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Cider Buying Factors

                                                                                                                                                                                          • Cider’s relative cheapness and retailer tactics underpin low brand loyalty
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 30: Cider buying habits, October 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Sampling can help to drive trial
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 31: Prompts to try a new brand of cider, October 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Link-ups with supermarket loyalty schemes could help to harness the power of discounts
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Recommendations have an important influence
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Discounts and giveaways should help to incentivise recommendations…
                                                                                                                                                                                                • …as can ‘shared secrets’ marketing messages
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Promotions are more compelling than price in driving choice
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 32: Factors influencing choice of cider, October 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Little sign of flavour fatigue among cider buyers
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Few people are influenced by British ingredients
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Giving details of the farm would give stronger differentiation
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Cider producers could take cues from wine and refer to terroir
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Low consumer awareness likely reason why named apple varieties have little influence
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Need to communicate to consumers how the apple varieties affect the final taste
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Behaviours relating to Cider

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Three quarters of drinkers/buyers want ciders to be grouped in-store by flavour profile
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Behaviours relating to cider, October 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Consumers’ sugar concerns present both a challenge and an opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Attitudes towards Cider

                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Cider is widely seen as good value
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Premium products can benefit from a ‘quality over quantity’ mind-set
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 34: Attitudes towards cider, October 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Smaller formats appeal widely as a way to control alcohol intake
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 35: Total UK volume sales of cider, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 36: Forecast of UK sales of cider, by value, best- and worst-case, 2017-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 37: Forecast of UK sales of cider, by volume, best- and worst-case, 2017-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Forecast methodology

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Cider - UK - January 2018

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