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Coffee - US - July 2018

"The $14.4 billion coffee market continues on a positive path in 2018, buoyed by a thriving RTD (ready-to-drink) coffee segment and sustained growth in single-serve formats. Millennials show strong category engagement, consuming a range of coffee products and show strong interest in innovative offerings, including RTD coffees with new ingredients and added functionality. There are challenges in the evolving landscape for more traditional roasted coffee providers and well-established national brands to remain relevant. Suppliers also need to help consumers navigate the sundry of hot and cold beverage options."

- Mimi Bonnett, Director - Food and Drink, Foodservice

This report will look at the following areas:

  • Traditional roasted coffee offers little growth, and instant sees sales and share decline
  • National brands struggling to keep pace with innovation
  • Competitive drink space gets energetic

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • Continued growth in 2018 expected to continue through 2023
          • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2012-22
        • The issues
          • Traditional roasted coffee offers little growth, and instant sees sales and share decline
            • Figure 2: Percent market share of coffee market, by segment, 2016 and 2018
          • National brands struggling to keep pace with innovation
            • Figure 3: Types of brands purchased, by type of coffee, May 2018
          • Competitive drink space gets energetic
            • Figure 4: Other drinks used for energy other than energy drinks/ shots, March 2018
          • The opportunities
            • Young consumers consume range of formats and are energized by new RTD coffees
              • Figure 5: Consumption of coffee, by age, May 2018
            • Opportunity to engage and cross-market with foodservice offerings
              • Figure 6: interest in RTD coffee innovations, May 2018
            • Interest in enhanced RTD coffee, especially BFY benefits, is high
              • Figure 7: Attributes in ideal RTD coffee drinks, May 2018
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Coffee market grows in 2018 and positive forecast seen through 2023
                • RTD coffee stands out as dynamic, fast-growing segment
                  • Creamer market’s fairly stable trajectory projected to continue
                    • Foodservice competes, but also shapes demand and innovation
                      • Tea, soda and sports drinks widely used as energizing beverages
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • Growth climbs in 2018 and is forecast to continue through 2023
                          • Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2012-22
                          • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2012-22
                      • Market Breakdown

                        • RTD coffee drives category growth
                          • Figure 10: Percent market share of coffee market, by segment, 2016 and 2018
                        • Roasted coffee dominates segment, but growth is stagnant
                          • Single-cup continues to draw consumers and posts 6% two-year growth
                            • Dynamic RTD segment propels market forward as sales drop for instant
                              • Figure 11: Total US retail sales of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
                            • RTD coffee and single-serve forecast to drive market, build share through 2023
                              • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
                            • Supermarkets remain single-largest channel for coffee sales
                              • “Other” retailers are growing share and expanding private label presence
                                • Figure 13: Total US retail sales of coffee, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
                            • Market Perspective

                              • Creamer market posts stable growth, increases projected through 2023
                                • Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream and creamers, at current prices, 2013-23
                              • Food service competes, but also shapes demand and innovation
                                • Competition from energy drinks, including coffee-flavored options
                                  • Tea, soda and sports drinks widely used as energizing beverages
                                    • Figure 15: Other drinks used for energy other than energy drinks/shots, March 2018
                                • Market Factors

                                  • Consumer economic confidence shapes discretionary expenditures on beverages
                                    • Figure 16: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-may 2018
                                  • Younger consumers are shifting category leaders
                                    • Figure 17: Type of coffee consumed most often, for grounds, by age, May 2018
                                    • Figure 18: Type of coffee consumed most often, for RTD, by age, May 2018
                                    • Figure 19: US Population aged 18+, by age, 2013-23
                                  • Multicultural growth
                                    • Figure 20: Distribution of population, by age race and Hispanic origin, 2018
                                  • Studies suggest coffee’s benefits to health and longevity
                                  • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                    • Market leader JM Smucker loses share, Starbucks posts growth
                                      • “Other” suppliers build share, especially in RTD segment
                                        • Private label build share, especially with premium offerings
                                          • RTD segment grows, with many strong performers, especially in cold brew
                                            • Forward-looking innovation widespread in the RTD segment
                                            • Brand Sales of Coffee

                                              • In fragmented landscape, JM Smucker struggles, as Starbucks rises
                                                • Three major medium sized players also lose share
                                                  • “Other” suppliers – including many niche brands – are fastest growing
                                                    • Figure 21: Multi-outlet sales of coffee, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
                                                • What’s Working?

                                                  • Restaurant and coffee shop branded roast and pods
                                                    • Figure 22: K-cup Original Donut Shop Coffee Ad, 2018
                                                  • Private label gains share, especially in single-serve pod and RTD segments
                                                    • RTD coffee grows, with many strong performers, especially in cold brew
                                                      • North American Coffee Partnership grows sales from leading segment position
                                                        • Figure 23: Starbucks Mocha Frappuccino bottle – flavor like no other Ad, 2018
                                                      • Range of food & beverage suppliers expand their reach into RTD segment
                                                        • Smaller players build share and drive innovation, especially in cold brew
                                                        • What’s Struggling?

                                                          • Legacy brands struggle, especially in roasted coffee and single serve
                                                            • Instant coffee loses appeal and continues to see sales tumble
                                                            • What’s Next?

                                                              • More RTD choices made with nut-based milks and oils
                                                                • Hybrid cold brew coffees
                                                                  • Functional coffee: added caffeine, protein, vitamins and other benefits
                                                                      • Figure 24: Starbucks Plus Coffee single serve pods Ad, 2018
                                                                    • Attention to ethical sourcing, already widespread, may go further
                                                                      • Figure 25: Green Mountain Coffee Ad, 2018
                                                                  • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                    • Grounds are most widely used, followed by pods and RTD offerings
                                                                      • Age shapes consumption, with users 18-34 using wider range
                                                                        • Consumers define premium coffee by superior taste first
                                                                          • Interest high in foodservice branded RTD choices
                                                                            • RTD coffee consumers eager for additives that can provide BFY benefits
                                                                              • Vanilla, hazelnut and chocolate top flavor interest
                                                                                • National, foodservice and premium private label are all widely used
                                                                                • Coffee Consumption

                                                                                  • Grounds are most widely used, followed by pods and RTD offerings
                                                                                    • Figure 26: Consumption of coffee – by type of coffee, May 2018
                                                                                  • Caffeinated and brewed more popular than decaf or espresso
                                                                                    • Figure 27: Consumption of coffee - grounds, pods and instant, May 2018
                                                                                  • Flavored RTD coffees are most popular
                                                                                    • Figure 28: Consumption of RTD coffee, May 2018
                                                                                  • Older consumers stick to grounds, youth experiment and seeks RTD coffee
                                                                                    • Figure 29: Consumption of coffee, by age, May 2018
                                                                                  • More affluent HHs show preference grounds and pods
                                                                                    • Figure 30: Consumption of coffee, by household income, May 2018
                                                                                  • Hispanics show strong engagement, including high usage of RTD
                                                                                    • Figure 31: Consumption of coffee, by Hispanic origin, May 2018
                                                                                • Qualities of Premium Coffee

                                                                                  • Consumers define premium coffee by superior taste first
                                                                                    • Figure 32: Premium coffee qualities, May 2018
                                                                                    • Figure 33: TURF Analysis – Defining premium coffee, May 2018
                                                                                    • Figure 34: Table - TURF Analysis – Defining premium coffee, May 2018
                                                                                  • Younger consumers expect premium to have more natural, green profile
                                                                                    • Figure 35: Premium coffee qualities, by age, May 2018
                                                                                  • Affluent consumers may prioritize taste, seek small batch products
                                                                                    • Figure 36: Premium coffee qualities, by household income, May 2018
                                                                                  • Hispanic consumers value more natural, eco-friendly qualities in premium
                                                                                    • Figure 37: Premium coffee qualities, by Hispanic origin, May 2018
                                                                                • Qualities Sought in RTD Coffee

                                                                                  • Interest high in coffee shop/restaurant RTD creations
                                                                                    • Figure 38: interest in RTD coffee innovations, May 2018
                                                                                  • RTD coffee users 45+ especially interested in coffee shop, restaurant brands
                                                                                    • Figure 39: interest in RTD coffee innovations, by age, May 2018
                                                                                  • RTD coffee consumers eager for BFY benefits
                                                                                    • Figure 40: Attributes in ideal RTD coffee drink, May 2018
                                                                                  • RTD coffee with health/wellness additives build appeal to those 45+
                                                                                    • Figure 41: Attributes in ideal RTD coffee drink, by age, May 2018
                                                                                  • RTD coffee with high caffeine and protein likely to appeal to men
                                                                                    • Figure 42: Attributes in ideal RTD coffee drink, by gender, May 2018
                                                                                  • Hispanic consumers seek RTD coffee drinks with a health halo
                                                                                    • Figure 43: Attributes in ideal RTD coffee drink, by Hispanic origin, May 2018
                                                                                • Flavors of Coffee

                                                                                  • Vanilla, hazelnut and chocolate engage most interest
                                                                                    • Figure 44: Coffee flavors interested in trying, May 2018
                                                                                  • Interest high in flavors, except among those aged 55+
                                                                                    • Figure 45: Coffee flavors interested in trying, by Age, May 2018
                                                                                  • Hazelnut, banana and alcohol flavored coffees appeal to
                                                                                    • Figure 46: Coffee flavors interested in trying, by Hispanic origin, May 2018
                                                                                • Brands

                                                                                  • National, foodservice and premium private label are all widely used
                                                                                    • Figure 47: Types of brands purchased, by type of coffee, May 2018
                                                                                  • Usage of national brands highest in grounds and instant
                                                                                    • Figure 48: Types of brands purchased, by type of coffee, May 2018
                                                                                    • Figure 49: Correspondence Analysis – Coffee/tea brand type purchase, May 2018
                                                                                    • Figure 50: Coffee/tea brand type purchase, May 2018
                                                                                  • National brands used more exclusively by those aged 55+
                                                                                    • Figure 51: Types of brands purchased, by age, May 2018
                                                                                  • Income shapes brand choice, but is not necessarily dominant factor
                                                                                    • Figure 52: Types of brands purchased, by household income, May 2018
                                                                                • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                                  • Data sources
                                                                                    • Sales data
                                                                                      • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                        • Consumer survey data
                                                                                          • Direct marketing creative
                                                                                            • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                              • Abbreviations
                                                                                                • TURF methodology
                                                                                                  • Correspondence Analysis Methodology
                                                                                                  • Appendix – Market

                                                                                                      • Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                                                      • Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of roasted coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                                                      • Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of single-cup coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                                                      • Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of instant coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                                                      • Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-drink coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
                                                                                                      • Figure 58: Total US retail sales of coffee, by retail channel, at current prices, 2013-18
                                                                                                  • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                                      • Figure 59: MULO sales of roasted coffee by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                                                      • Figure 60: MULO sales of single-cup coffee by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                                                      • Figure 61: MULO sales of instant coffee by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
                                                                                                      • Figure 62: MULO sales of ready-to-drink coffee by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018

                                                                                                  Coffee - US - July 2018

                                                                                                  £3,435.47 (Excl.Tax)