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Coffee - US - July 2019

Covered in this report

This report includes packaged coffee and prepared coffee beverages sold for home preparation and/or consumption. The following types of coffee are included:

  • Roasted coffee – ground and whole bean; regular and decaffeinated; unflavored and flavored
  • Single-cup coffee – cups and pods containing premeasured coffee for use in automatic single-cup coffee makers
  • Instant coffee – regular and decaffeinated; includes both powdered instant and liquid coffee concentrates
  • RTD (ready-to-drink) coffee – shelf-stable or refrigerated bottled/ canned single-serve prepared iced coffees and coffee drinks; refrigerated RTD coffee (half-gallons and single-serving)

"The $15.1 billion coffee category is projected to grow a respectable 22.7% through 2024 largely thanks to the trendsetting RTD (ready-to-drink) coffee segment, which is on pace to outgrow the long-time coffee leader, roasted coffee, within five years. The market is also driven by the continued modest growth of single-cup coffee options. Coffee suppliers and legacy coffee brands in particular need to meet quickly changing consumer needs around health and quality to remain relevant."
- Jill Failla, Foodservice Analyst

This Report looks at the following areas:

  • Coffee leaders are falling behind
  • Beverages are blurring, but their threat to coffee is clear
  • RTD coffee outshines the rest
  • Is coffee the key to relaxation?
  • Espresso opportunity in US still looms large

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • Overview
          • Key takeaways
            • The issues
              • Coffee leaders are falling behind
                • Figure 1: Coffee consumption – Drink most often, by age, May 2019
              • Beverages are blurring, but their threat to coffee is clear
                • Figure 2: Beverage purchase for at-home consumption, April 2017 and 2019
              • The opportunities
                • RTD coffee outshines the rest
                  • Figure 3: RTD coffee consumption – NET any drink, by age, may 2019
                • Is coffee the key to relaxation?
                  • Figure 4: Functional coffee qualities, May 2019
                • Espresso opportunity in US still looms large
                  • Figure 5: Coffee consumption – NET any drink, by age, may 2019
              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                • Coffee and creamer markets chart growth by meeting both health and taste demands
                  • RTD coffee drives segment growth, steals market share
                    • Blurring beverages pose a competitive threat to coffee
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • Coffee is projected to grow moderately through 2024
                        • Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2014-24
                        • Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2014-24
                      • The cream and creamer market will grow respectably alongside coffee
                        • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream and creamers, at current prices, 2014-24
                    • Market Breakdown

                      • Roasted coffee market share falls in favor of other formats
                        • Figure 9: Percentage market share of coffee market, by segment, 2017 and 2019
                        • Figure 10: Total US retail sales of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
                      • Single-cup and RTD coffee forecasted to grow sales through 2024
                        • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
                      • Consumers increasingly source coffee from nontraditional channels
                        • Figure 12: Total US retail sales of coffee, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
                    • Market Perspective

                      • Coffee has growing competitive strength but faces threats from caffeinated water and more
                          • Figure 13: Beverage purchase for at-home consumption, April 2017 and 2019
                        • Foodservice coffee continues to perform well
                        • Market Factors

                          • A strong economy encourages lower- and middle-income consumers to spend on beverages
                            • Figure 14: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-June 2019
                          • Young consumers choose nontraditional options for their primary coffee beverage
                            • Figure 15: Coffee consumption – Drink most often, by age, May 2019
                        • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                          • Top coffee players continue to lose share
                            • The darker the better for today’s coffee
                              • RTD is a bright spot thanks to innovation
                              • Brand Sales of Coffee

                                • The biggest coffee brands continue to lose share
                                    • Figure 16: Multi-outlet sales of coffee, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                • What’s Working?

                                  • Whole bean coffee
                                    • Espresso and darker coffee roasts
                                      • Functional RTD coffee
                                        • Plant-based RTDs and standalone creamers
                                        • What’s Struggling?

                                          • Roasted coffee legacy brands struggle to keep up
                                            • Instant coffee hasn’t overcome its lower quality perception
                                            • What’s Next?

                                              • CBD coffee
                                                • Will flash brew be the next cold brew?
                                                  • Edible coffee
                                                  • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                    • RTD coffee is poised for growth
                                                      • Consumers turn to coffee for new and different functions
                                                        • Consumers want coffee to offer health attributes above all else
                                                        • Coffee Consumption

                                                          • Consumers tend to drink RTD coffee in addition to the coffee they drink most
                                                            • Figure 17: Coffee consumption – NET coffee varieties, May 2019
                                                          • Most consumers drink at least two types of coffee
                                                            • Figure 18: Coffee consumption – NET any drink, by repertoire analysis, May 2019
                                                          • Espresso drinks tend to be supplemental to another, more frequently consumed type of coffee
                                                            • Figure 19: Coffee consumption – Grounds, pods and instant, May 2019
                                                          • Consumers seek out flavors in RTD coffee beverages
                                                            • Figure 20: Coffee consumption – RTD, May 2019
                                                          • Consumers are drinking more decaf coffee and flavored RTD cold brew
                                                            • Figure 21: Change in coffee consumption year over year – NET any drink, May 2018 and 2019
                                                          • Young consumers are driving RTD and espresso growth
                                                            • Figure 22: Coffee consumption – NET any drink, by age, May 2019
                                                          • Higher-income consumers drink more coffee from pods
                                                            • Figure 23: Coffee consumption – NET any drink, by household income, May 2019
                                                          • Hispanic consumers drive RTD coffee growth
                                                            • Figure 24: Coffee consumption – NET any drink, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2019
                                                        • Coffee Additions

                                                          • Consumers are adding less sugar to their coffee drinks
                                                            • Figure 25: Coffee and tea additions, April 2017 and 2019
                                                        • Premium Coffee Qualities & Price Sensitivity

                                                          • Consumers prioritize coffee that’s clean and free of artificial ingredients
                                                            • Figure 26: Premium coffee qualities, May 2019
                                                          • Marketing coffee as both clean and free of artificial ingredients will appeal to the majority of coffee consumers
                                                            • Figure 27: Premium coffee qualities, by TURF analysis, May 2019
                                                          • Millennials seek out premium, artisan coffee qualities
                                                            • Figure 28: Premium coffee qualities, by generation, May 2019
                                                          • Parents drive demand for premium coffee qualities
                                                            • Figure 29: Premium coffee qualities, by parental status, May 2019
                                                          • Fair trade has a slightly lower price threshold than organic or third-party environmental certified coffee
                                                            • Figure 30: Price sensitivity to premium coffee qualities, May 2019
                                                        • Functional Coffee Qualities

                                                          • Consumers like to be told how their coffee is helping them
                                                            • Figure 31: Functional coffee qualities, May 2019
                                                          • Women drive demand for several functional coffee ingredients
                                                            • Figure 32: Functional coffee qualities, by gender, May 2019
                                                          • Gen Zers and Millennials are the most interested in CBD coffee
                                                            • Figure 33: Functional coffee qualities, by generation, May 2019
                                                          • Hispanic consumers overindex in functional coffee ingredient interest
                                                            • Figure 34: Functional coffee qualities, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2019
                                                        • Coffee Flavors

                                                          • Vanilla, mocha and caramel are leading coffee flavors by far
                                                            • Figure 35: Coffee flavors, May 2019
                                                          • Young women drive demand for coffee flavor innovation
                                                            • Figure 36: Coffee flavors, by gender and age, May 2019
                                                          • Most Black consumers prefer caramel coffee flavors
                                                            • Figure 37: Coffee flavors, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2019
                                                        • Innovative Coffee Concepts

                                                          • Coffee products from coffee shop brands are highly appealing
                                                            • Figure 38: Innovative coffee concepts, May 2019
                                                          • Millennials desire innovative coffee products such as flash brewed coffee and single-serve pour over packets
                                                            • Figure 39: Innovative coffee concepts, by generation, May 2019
                                                          • Middle-income consumers drive coffee product innovation
                                                            • Figure 40: Innovative coffee concepts, by household income, May 2019
                                                          • Hispanic coffee consumers seek out international-style coffee and innovative RTD
                                                            • Figure 41: Innovative coffee concepts, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2019
                                                        • Coffee Attitudes

                                                          • Only three in 10 coffee consumers say they care about the farmers who make their coffee
                                                              • Figure 42: Coffee attitudes, May 2019
                                                            • Millennials are trading from ground coffee to whole beans for quality reasons
                                                              • Figure 43: Coffee attitudes, by generation, May 2019
                                                            • Affluent consumers are also driving growth of whole bean coffee
                                                              • Figure 44: Coffee attitudes, by income, May 2019
                                                            • White consumers who drink coffee think freshly ground coffee tastes better
                                                              • Figure 45: Coffee attitudes, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2019
                                                          • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                            • Data sources
                                                              • Sales data
                                                                • Fan chart forecast
                                                                  • Consumer survey data
                                                                    • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                      • Abbreviations
                                                                        • Terms
                                                                        • Appendix – The Market

                                                                            • Figure 46: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                            • Figure 47: Total US retail sales and forecast of roasted coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                            • Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of single-cup coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                            • Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of instant coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                            • Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-drink coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                            • Figure 51: Total US retail sales of coffee, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                        • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                            • Figure 52: Multi-outlet sales of roasted coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                                                            • Figure 53: Multi-outlet sales of single-cup coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                                                            • Figure 54: Multi-outlet sales of instant coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                                                            • Figure 55: Multi-outlet sales of ready-to-drink coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                                                        • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                          • TURF methodology

                                                                          Coffee - US - July 2019

                                                                          £3,435.47 (Excl.Tax)