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Commercial Mortgages - UK - July 2018

“Commercial borrowing levels recovered in 2017, bolstered by a strong second half of the year, as the market displayed resilience a year on from the lull that followed the EU referendum. This growth came as a surprise to many in the industry given the climate of uncertainty, with fears that heightened caution could subdue major financial commitments for a number of years.

The future of the industry remains uncertain, but there have been signs of promise in the past year.”

- Marco Amasanti, B2B Analyst

This report will cover the following areas:

  • Brexit uncertainties
  • Decline of retail

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What's included

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Market reveals resilience in 2017
              • Figure 1: Value of New loans in the UK Commercial Mortgage market, £ billion, 2013-2017
            • Growth underpinned by office and industrial sectors, while retail continues to struggle
              • Figure 2: Owner occupied and invested commercial property value, % of total, 2013-2017
            • Commercial property borrowing expected to maintain resilience
              • Non-bank lenders continue to grow in prominence
                • Figure 3: New loans value allocation by lender category, 2016 and 2017
              • Companies and brands
                • Extensive restructuring of businesses
                  • What we think
                  • Issues and Insights

                    • Brexit uncertainties
                      • The facts
                        • The implications
                          • Decline of retail
                            • The facts
                              • The implications
                              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                • Market recovers in 2017
                                  • Growing divide between struggling retail and growing industrial and office sectors
                                    • Non-bank lenders continue to consolidate
                                      • Commercial property investment recover strongly in 2017
                                        • Commercial property borrowing outlook remains cautiously optimistic
                                        • Market Size

                                          • Methodology
                                            • New lending remained stable in 2017
                                              • Figure 5: Value of New loans in the UK Commercial Mortgages market, £ billion, 2013-2017
                                            • Total outstanding debt falls slightly
                                              • Figure 6: Value of outstanding loan books, £ billion, 2013-2017
                                          • Category Market Share

                                            • Non-banks continue to grow increasingly prominent in new lending
                                              • Figure 7: Value of New loans in UK Commercial Mortgages market, allocation by lender category, 2016 and 2017
                                            • Outstanding debt remains stable
                                              • Figure 8: Debt allocation, by lender category, 2016 and 2017
                                            • London dominates but the regions are expected to grow
                                              • Figure 9: Geographic distribution of loan books, % of total, 2017
                                            • Offices remain the largest sector
                                              • Figure 10: Property type distribution of loan books, % of total, 2017
                                          • Market Segmentation

                                            • Growing divide between struggling retail and growing industrial and office sectors
                                              • Figure 11: Owner occupied and invested commercial property value, % of total, 2017
                                              • Figure 12: Owner occupied and invested commercial property value, % of total, 2013-2017
                                            • Falling need for retail property
                                              • London continues to dominate offices sector despite increased uptake in the regions
                                                • Figure 13: Value of office property, by region, 2017
                                              • Industrial demand strongest performer of 2017
                                                • Growth in leisure and student housing drive growth in other commercial
                                                • Market Forecast

                                                  • Commercial borrowing expected to maintain steady minor growth
                                                    • Figure 14: Market forecast for commercial property capital value, 2013-2022
                                                  • Offices and industrial expected to maintain popularity, while retail will continue to struggle
                                                      • Figure 15: Forecasted segmentation of the UK Commercial Property market, 2018-2022
                                                    • Interest rate growth
                                                      • Boosted interest in the regions
                                                      • The Impact of the Economy

                                                        • Interest rates
                                                          • Availability of credit
                                                          • Market Trends

                                                            • Commercial property investment recovered in 2017
                                                                • Figure 16: Investment in UK commercial property, £ billion, 2013-2017
                                                              • Commercial lending rates rose in 2017 following 2016 dip
                                                                  • Figure 17: Average interest rate for UK MFI new advances to PNFCs, %, MAY 2016-April 2018
                                                                • Availability of credit remained largely stable in 2017
                                                                    • Figure 18: Availability of corporate credit to PNFCs in the last three months, net % balance, Q1 2012-Q1 2018
                                                                • Market Drivers

                                                                  • Foreign Investment
                                                                    • Shift among residential landlords to commercial investment
                                                                      • Growing uptake among local authorities
                                                                      • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                        • Extensive restructuring of businesses
                                                                          • Infrastructure decline in the past year
                                                                            • Operators move online
                                                                            • Industry Structure

                                                                              • Changes in the structure of the industry
                                                                                  • Figure 19: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the banks and building societies sector, number of outlets and businesses, 2013-2017
                                                                                  • Figure 20: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the financial leasing sector, number of outlets and businesses, 2013-2017
                                                                                  • Figure 21: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the other credit granting sector, number of outlets and businesses, 2013-2017
                                                                                • Structure by turnover
                                                                                  • Figure 22: Analysis of the financial structure of the banks and building societies sector, 2016 and 2017
                                                                                  • Figure 23: Analysis of the financial structure of financial leasing sector, 2016 and 2017
                                                                                  • Figure 24: Analysis of the financial structure of other credit granting sector, 2016 and 2017
                                                                                • Structure by employment
                                                                                  • Figure 25: Analysis of the employment structure of the banks and building societies sector, 2016 and 2017
                                                                                  • Figure 26: Analysis of the employment structure of the financial leasing sector, 2016 and 2017
                                                                                  • Figure 27: Analysis of the employment structure of the other credit granting sector, 2016 and 2017
                                                                              • Company Profiles

                                                                                • Barclays PLC
                                                                                    • Figure 28: Financial analysis of Barclays PLC, 2013-2017
                                                                                  • HSBC
                                                                                      • Figure 29: Financial analysis of HSBC, £ million, 2013-2017
                                                                                    • Lloyds Banking Group
                                                                                        • Figure 30: Financial analysis of Lloyds Banking Group, £ million, 2013-2017
                                                                                      • Royal Bank of Scotland Group
                                                                                          • Figure 31: Financial analysis of Royal Bank of Scotland Group, £ million, 2013-2017
                                                                                        • Santander UK Plc
                                                                                            • Figure 32: Financial analysis of Santander UK Plc, £ million, 2013-2017
                                                                                        • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                                                              • Methodology
                                                                                              • Further Sources and Contacts

                                                                                                • Trade associations
                                                                                                  • Trade magazines
                                                                                                    • Trade events

                                                                                                    Commercial Mortgages - UK - July 2018

                                                                                                    US $1,343.55 (Excl.Tax)