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Consumers and the Economic Outlook: Quarterly Update - UK - May 2016

“Mintel’s consumer confidence data shows that the economy only has, at best, an indirect impact on sentiment. When the UK economy was outperforming most of its peers, many people were still pretty wary. However, in 2016 sentiment has continued to trend upwards, despite disappointing growth in the economy as a whole. April’s figures dipped slightly, but people are still more positive than there were for most of 2015.
What’s really interesting is the potential impact of the EU Referendum. Looking back at Mintel’s data around the time of the Scottish Independence Referendum and, later, around the General Election, Mintel’s data suggests that the uncertainty associated with these events has the potential to undermine confidence, but that sentiment strongly rebounds when the uncertainty is resolved. A “remain” vote could well boost confidence, even if there is no underlying improvement in the consumer economy.”
– Toby Clark, Director of Research, EMEA

This report discusses the following key topic:

  • Sentiment is still trending upwards…but there was an April wobble
  • Possibility of a post-referendum bounce?
  • Key economic indicators

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Table of contents

  1. Key Findings

      • Sentiment is still trending upwards…
        • …but there was an April wobble
          • Possibility of a post-referendum bounce?
            • Key economic indicators
              • Figure 1: Key economic indicators, May 2016
          • Current Financial Situation

            • Sentiment edges upwards in 2016
              • Figure 2: “How would you generally describe your financial situation at the moment?” April 2016
              • Figure 3: The wellbeing index, February 2009-April 2016
            • The generation divide: It’s not millennials who are finding it toughest
              • Figure 4: Current financial situation, by generation, April 2016
          • Changes in Financial Wellbeing

            • People are more likely than not to say their finances have improved
              • Figure 5: “How would you describe your finances compared to a year ago?”, April 2016
            • What effect will the National Living Wage have on sentiment?
              • Figure 6: The recovery index, July 2011-April 2016
            • The advantages of starting small
              • Figure 7: Change in financial situation, by generation, April 2016
          • Financial Confidence

            • Could uncertainty undermine consumer confidence?
              • Figure 8: “And how do you feel about your financial situation over the next year or so?”, April 2016
              • Figure 9: The financial confidence index, January 2009-April 2016
            • The impact of the EU referendum…
              • …and what we can learn from the Scottish independence referendum
                • Figure 10: “I’m pretty confident I’ll be OK over the next year or so”, by region, August-October 2014
              • More signs of fragile confidence among Generation Xers
                • Figure 11: Financial confidence, by generation, April 2016
            • Spending Plans

              • Financial priorities suggest a more cautious mindset
                • Figure 12: “Thinking about how you spend your money, which of the following have you done over the last three months? And which do you plan to do over the next three months?”, April 2016
                • Figure 13: The financial activity index, June 2012-April 2016
              • Millennials lead the way on spending
                • Figure 14: Financial activity over the last three months, by generation, April 2016
                • Figure 15: Planned financial activity over the coming three months, by generation, April 2016

            Consumers and the Economic Outlook: Quarterly Update - UK - May 2016

            US $2,552.20 (Excl.Tax)