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Cookies - US - July 2019

Covered in this report

For the purposes of this report, Mintel has divided the cookie market into the following segments:

  • Cookies: packaged as individual or multipacks
  • Cookie dough: refrigerated or frozen
  • Cookie mixes

Excluded from the market size in this report are:

  • Fresh cookies sold through in-store bakeries and foodservice venues
  • Cookie-based candy bars (eg Twix)
  • Crackers

"The cookie market trails behind some US snack categories. Year-over-year growth is slower than some of the savory leaders, but outpaces confectionery and frozen options, both of which struggle with a poor perception of health. Prepared cookies make up the lion’s share of sales (and growth) in the category, followed by cookie dough and cookie mixes. Cookie consumption is nearly universal, meaning future growth in the category will require increasing consumption frequency rather than growing consumers. Improving health positioning and diversifying formats can expand cookie occasions."
- Beth Bloom, Associate Director - Food & Drink

This Report looks at the following areas:

  • Cookie sales growth is slow
  • Snacking is popular, but snack categories need to be on guard
  • Future growth will require expanding occasions

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • What you need to know
          • The issues
            • Cookie sales growth is slow
              • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, at current prices, 2014-24
            • Snacking is popular, but snack categories need to be on guard
              • Figure 2: Percentage growth in select snack categories, 2013-18
            • Future growth will require expanding occasions
              • Figure 3: Cookie consumption, April 2019
            • The opportunities
              • Cookies are treats: the good and the bad of it
                • Figure 4: Reasons for cookie consumption, April 2019
              • A third of cookie eaters are interested in low-sugar options
                • Figure 5: Cookie innovation of interest, April 2019
              • Cookie dough has growth potential
                • Figure 6: Total US sales of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, 2014-24 (fore)
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Omnipresence of snacking should help all snack categories grow
                • Sugar fears challenge sweet categories
                  • Cookie sales grow 14% from 2014-19
                    • Cookie growth trails behind other snack categories
                      • Prepared cookies dominate cookie category; dough has growth potential
                      • Market Size and Forecast

                        • Category sales grow 14% over the past five years
                          • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, at current prices, 2014-24
                          • Figure 8: Total US retail sales of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, at current prices, 2014-24
                          • Figure 9: Total US retail sales of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                      • Market Breakdown

                        • Prepared cookies comprise the lion’s share of sales
                          • Figure 10: Segment share of total US sales of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, 2014 and 2019 (est)
                        • Prepared cookie launches outpace other segments
                          • Figure 11: Product launches, by segment, 2015-19*
                          • Figure 12: Total US sales of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, 2014-24 (fore)
                        • “Other” channels outsell supermarkets; cookies have strong online sales potential
                          • Figure 13: Total US retail sales of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
                      • Market Perspective

                        • Snacking is popular, but snack categories need to be on guard
                          • Figure 14: Percentage growth in select snack categories, 2013-18
                          • Figure 15: Snack purchase drivers, November 2018
                        • Salty snack categories have a small advantage
                          • Figure 16: Salty snack statements – Any agree: preference, January 2019
                        • Sugar: the cookie monster
                          • Figure 17: Sweetener usage trend, September 2018
                        • Portability and portionability could help cookies grow appeal
                          • Figure 18: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Perception of snacks, December 2018
                          • Figure 19: Perception of snacks, December 2018
                        • Packaged cookies can fend off bakeries through access and innovation
                          • Figure 20: Attitudes toward in-store bakeries, November 2018
                      • Market Factors

                        • Snack time all the time
                          • Figure 21: Snacking frequency, January 2015 and November 2018
                      • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                        • Mondelēz brands control more than a third of MULO sales of cookies
                          • Nostalgia helps some packaged cookie brands make gains
                            • Clean label claims are on the rise
                              • There’s room for flavor innovation in the category
                              • Companies and Brand Sales of Cookies

                                • Mondelēz controls more than a third of MULO sales of cookies
                                  • Figure 22: Share of multi-outlet sales of cookies and cookie dough/mixes, by leading companies, 52 weeks ending March 24, 2019
                                  • Figure 23: Multi-outlet sales of cookies and cookie dough/mixes, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                              • What’s Working?

                                • Nostalgia helps some packaged cookie brands make gains
                                  • Oreo exemplifies how diversification can drive consumption
                                    • Health-focused brands see sales growth
                                      • Figure 24: Multi-outlet sales of cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                    • Growth of clean label suggest a move toward health positioning
                                      • Figure 25: Product launches, by claims, 2015-19*
                                    • Chocolate leads across all segments
                                      • Figure 26: Product launches, by flavor, 2015-19*
                                  • What’s Struggling?

                                    • Nestlé loses share to smaller brands
                                      • Figure 27: Multi-outlet sales of cookie dough, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                    • Cookie mix leaders see sales decline
                                      • Figure 28: Multi-outlet sales of cookie mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
                                  • What’s Next?

                                    • Rise of the cookie dough
                                      • Improving cookie nutrition to increase permissibility, consumption frequency
                                        • Flavor frenzy
                                        • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                          • 94% of US households eat cookies
                                            • Diversifying cookie types may increase cookie occasions
                                              • Cookies are seen as treats
                                                • A third of cookie eaters are interested in low-sugar options
                                                  • Cookie mixes are seen as fresher than packaged cookies
                                                  • Cookie Consumption

                                                    • 94% of US households eat cookies
                                                      • Figure 29: Cookie consumption, April 2019
                                                    • Cookie cravings don’t fade with age
                                                      • Figure 30: Cookie consumption – Purchase for myself, by age, April 2019
                                                  • Cookie Types Consumed

                                                    • Cookies with chips and sandwich cookies lead
                                                      • Figure 31: Cookie types consumed, April 2019
                                                      • Figure 32: Repertoire of cookie types consumed, April 2019
                                                    • Parents eat their kids’ cookies
                                                      • Figure 33: Cookie types consumed, by parental status, April 2019
                                                  • Cookie Source

                                                    • Packaged cookies lead
                                                      • Figure 34: Cookie source, April 2019
                                                    • Women are more likely to make cookies at home
                                                      • Figure 35: Cookie source, by gender, April 2019
                                                    • Younger cookie eaters can be engaged in many ways
                                                      • Figure 36: Cookie source, by age, April 2019
                                                    • More than half of parents buy cookies from in-store bakeries
                                                      • Figure 37: Cookie source, by parental status, April 2019
                                                  • Reasons for Cookie Consumption

                                                    • Cookies are treats: the good and the bad of it
                                                      • Figure 38: Reasons for cookie consumption, April 2019
                                                    • Treat positioning key in outreach to women
                                                      • Figure 39: Reasons for cookie consumption, by gender, April 2019
                                                    • Functionality resonates with younger eaters
                                                      • Figure 40: Reasons for cookie consumption, by age, April 2019
                                                  • Important Cookie Attributes

                                                    • Flavor leads cookie choice
                                                      • Figure 41: Important cookie attributes, April 2019
                                                    • Women seek treat positioning in attributes
                                                      • Figure 42: Important cookie attributes, by gender, April 2019
                                                    • Price is especially important to young cookie eaters
                                                      • Figure 43: Important cookie attributes, by age, April 2019
                                                  • Ideal Cookie

                                                    • Size
                                                      • A quarter of cookie eaters want bite-sized options
                                                        • Figure 44: Ideal cookie size, April 2019
                                                      • A quarter of men want large cookie options
                                                        • Figure 45: Ideal cookie size, by gender, April 2019
                                                      • Younger shoppers are most interested in size variety
                                                        • Figure 46: Ideal cookie size, by age, April 2019
                                                      • Texture
                                                        • Vast majority of cookie eaters want chewy options
                                                          • Figure 47: Ideal cookie texture, April 2019
                                                        • Cakey cookies appeal to younger consumers
                                                          • Figure 48: Ideal cookie texture, by age, April 2019
                                                      • Cookie Innovation of Interest

                                                        • A third of cookie eaters are interested in low-sugar options
                                                          • Figure 49: Cookie innovation of interest, April 2019
                                                        • Men are interested in protein, women interested in clean label
                                                          • Figure 50: Cookie innovation of interest, by gender, April 2019
                                                        • Older consumers less interested in bells and whistles
                                                          • Figure 51: Cookie innovation of interest, by age, April 2019
                                                        • Low sugar cookies with simple ingredients appeal to half of cookie eaters
                                                          • Figure 52: TURF Analysis – Interest in innovation, April 2019
                                                          • Figure 53: Table - TURF Analysis – Interest in innovation, April 2019
                                                      • Perception of Cookie Types

                                                        • Packaged cookies struggle with health
                                                          • Bakery section cookies perform well for taste, but could expand appeal
                                                            • Cookies baked from scratch at home lead for comfort
                                                              • Cookie mixes are seen as fresher than packaged cookies
                                                                • Figure 54: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Perceptions of cookie types, April 2019
                                                                • Figure 55: Perceptions of cookie types, April 2019
                                                            • Healthy Cookies

                                                              • Sugar reduction is the clearest means of improving health perception…
                                                                • Figure 56: Healthy cookies, April 2019
                                                              • …but there are many options for health positioning
                                                                • Figure 57: Healthy cookies, by age, April 2019
                                                            • Food and Drink Shopper Segmentation

                                                                  • Figure 58: Food/drink shopper segmentation, February 2019
                                                                • Quality Seekers (34%)
                                                                  • Figure 59: Profile of Quality Seekers, February 2019
                                                                • Adventure Eaters (34%)
                                                                  • Figure 60: Profile of Adventure Eaters, February 2019
                                                                • Time Savers (17%)
                                                                  • Figure 61: Profile of Time Savers, February 2019
                                                                • Value Chasers (15%)
                                                                  • Figure 62: Profile of Value Chasers, February 2019
                                                                • Implications of food/drink consumer segments on cookies
                                                                  • Time Savers don’t rule out baking from a refrigerated/frozen mix
                                                                    • Figure 63: Cookie source, by food and drink shopper segmentation, April 2019
                                                                  • Value Chasers will invest for indulgence
                                                                    • Figure 64: Reasons for cookie consumption, by food and drink shopper segmentation, April 2019
                                                                  • Quality Seekers are willing to splurge
                                                                    • Figure 65: Important cookie attributes, by food and drink shopper segmentation, April 2019
                                                                  • Lots of routes to appeal to Adventure Eaters
                                                                    • Figure 66: Cookie innovation of interest, by food and drink shopper segmentation, April 2019
                                                                • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                  • Data sources
                                                                    • Sales data
                                                                      • Fan chart forecast
                                                                        • Consumer survey data
                                                                          • TURF methodology
                                                                            • Correspondence analysis methodology
                                                                              • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                • Abbreviations
                                                                                • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                    • Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                                    • Figure 68: US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                                    • Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookie dough, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                                    • Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookie dough, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                                    • Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookie mixes, at current prices, 2014-24
                                                                                    • Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookie mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
                                                                                    • Figure 73: US supermarket sales of cookies and cookie mixes, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                                    • Figure 74: US drugstore sales of cookies and cookie mixes, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                                    • Figure 75: Sales of cookies and cookie mixes at other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
                                                                                • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                    • Figure 76: Multi-outlet sales of cookies and cookie dough/mixes, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019

                                                                                Cookies - US - July 2019

                                                                                £3,435.47 (Excl.Tax)