Crisps, Salty Snacks and Nuts - UK - January 2012

“Price remains the main choice factor in 2011, with consumers increasingly looking to stick to tried and trusted brands and flavours. Keeping crisps affordable in the face of rapidly rising raw material costs is one of the most difficult, but important, challenges facing manufacturers and retailers today.”

– Chris Wisson, Senior Food Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

How can the market arrest falling numbers of users?
How can over-55s be encouraged to try new types of crisps and salty snacks?
How can the sharing bags market boost their market share further?
How can manufacturers draw more men into the salty snacks market?

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Introduction
- Definition
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
- The market
- Forecast
  - Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail sales of crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by value, 2006-16
- Market factors
- UK obesity levels steadily rising
- Consumers look to enjoy indulgent treats more often
- Low consumer confidence of benefit to snack-at-home categories…
- …With price starting to prevail over loyalty
- Rising raw material prices a threat to keeping salty snacks affordable
- Population changes create both opportunities and threats
  - Figure 2: Projected trends in the UK population, by age group, 2011-16
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Pepsico remains the dominant market force
- Potato crisps and supermarkets drive innovation in the market
- - Figure 3: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by top companies, 2007-11*
- Healthy claims fall as NPD looks to keep its options open
  - Figure 4: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by claims, 2010 and 2011*
- Adspend looks set to fall in 2011
- The consumer
- Falling numbers of snackers in the market
- Standard potato crisps remain the most popular type…
  - Figure 5: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, November 2011
- …With snacking at home dominating
- Price grows in importance as a choice factor when buying crisps
  - Figure 6: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks or nuts, November 2011
- Consumers show keen interest in flavour and resealable packaging
  - Figure 7: Attitudes towards crisps and salty snacks, November 2011
- Health considerations come to the fore for consumption of nuts
  - Figure 8: Attitudes towards nuts, November 2011
- Overpricing a major barrier to popcorn usage
  - Figure 9: Attitudes towards popcorn, November 2011
- What we think
Issues in the Market
- How can the market arrest falling numbers of users?
- How can over-55s be encouraged to try new types of crisps and salty snacks?
- How can the sharing bags market boost their market share further?
- How can manufacturers draw more men into the salty snacks market?
Future Opportunities
- Extend my Brand
- A Simple Balance for Health
Internal Market Environment
- Key points
- Fewer Brits claim to be snacking in 2011
  - Figure 10: Snacking between meals, 2009-11
- Rising UK obesity levels put pressure on snack manufacturers
  - Figure 11: Body mass index segments, 2007-11
- Increasing numbers of consumers are looking for indulgent treats
- - Figure 12: Agreement with health-related lifestyle statements, 2007-11
- Consumers becoming more price-conscious and less brand-loyal
- - Figure 13: Agreement with cost-related lifestyle statements, 2007-11
- Trend for staying at home benefiting affordable indulgences
Broader Market Environment
- Key points
- Consumers to remain conservative with limited value market growth
  - Figure 14: Consumer confidence index, monthly, January 2007-December 2011
- The UK’s changing demographic profile presents challenges and opportunities
  - Figure 15: Projected trends in the UK population, by age group, 2011-16
- An ageing population a threat to the crisps market, but a potential boon for nuts
- Conversely, growing numbers of 25-34-year-olds may have the opposite effect
- Changing social patterns are also likely to lead to fragmented growth
  - Figure 16: Projected trends in the UK population, by socio-economic group, 2011-16
- C2s may hold the key for the crisps and nuts markets…
- …With ABs also likely to play a central role
- Declining numbers of D users a threat to crisps
- Rising raw material prices put pressure on manufacturer margins
Competitive Context
- Key points
- Crisps, salty snacks and nuts face a wide variety of competition
- - Figure 17: Retail sales in selected markets competing with crisps, salty snacks and nuts, 2006-11
- Healthy snacking being encouraged, but consumers still look for treats
  - Figure 18: Trends in attitudes towards selected healthy lifestyles, December 2008-October 2011
- Confectionery benefits from strong on-the-go positioning
- Growth of bag formats remains a threat to crisps and salty snacks
Strengths and Weaknesses
- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
- Key points
- Crisps NPD outstrips the market
  - Figure 19: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by sub-category, 2007-11*
- Supermarkets up the ante in NPD
  - Figure 20: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by top companies, 2011*
- - Figure 21: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by label, 2007-11*
- Healthy claims fall in 2011
  - Figure 22: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by claims, 2010 and 2011*
- NPD returns to the tried and tested
  - Figure 23: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by flavour, 2011*
- Key themes
- Supermarkets heat up competition in premium crisps segment
- Crisp brands highlight their use of local produce
- Smaller bags but big flavour
- Popcorn NPD booms in 2011
- Nuts tackle expensive image with economy launches
Market Size and Forecast
- Key points
- Market size for crisps and salty snacks
  - Figure 24: UK retail sales of crisps and salty snacks, 2006-11*
- Market size for nuts
  - Figure 25: UK retail sales of nuts, 2006-11
- Forecast
- Forecast for crisps and salty snacks
  - Figure 26: UK retail sales of crisps and salty snacks, 2006-16*
  - Figure 27: Forecast of UK retail sales of crisps and salty snacks*, by value, 2006-16
- Forecast for nuts
  - Figure 28: UK retail sales of nuts, 2006-16
  - Figure 29: Forecast of UK retail sales of nuts, by value, 2006-16
- Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
- Key points
- Crisps remain the largest individual type of snack
  - Figure 30: UK retail value sales of crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by type, 2009-11
- Nuts segment posts growth despite brand woes
- Snacks represent just under half of the market
- Child-friendly snacks remain a potentially lucrative market
Market Share
- Key points
- Walkers continues to dominate the crisps market
  - Figure 31: Leading brands’ value shares in crisps and salty snacks, 2009-11
- Mixed fortunes for PepsiCo’s brands
- New sub-brands add competition
- Doritos driving the success of tortilla chips
- Interest in retro brands remains strong
- Pringles struggles as takeover talks appear to impact on sales
- UB has success in growing value share of key brands
- Seabrook consolidates its position in the market
- Premium sales for premium crisps
- New entrants help to drive popcorn sales
- KP the only major brand to post growth in 2011
  - Figure 32: Leading brands’ value shares in nuts, 2009-11
- Peperami and Mattessons drive sales of meat snacks
  - Figure 33: Leading brands’ value shares in meat snacks, 2009-11
Companies and Products
- Diamond Foods
- Procter & Gamble
- PepsiCo
- Seabrook
- Tyrrells
- United Biscuits (UB)
- The Dormen Food Company
Brand Research
- Brand map
- - Figure 34: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the crisps and salty snacks sector, November 2011
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand attitudes
  - Figure 35: Attitudes, by crisp and salty snacks brand, November 2011
- Brand personality
  - Figure 36: Crisps and salty snacks brand personality – macro image, November 2011
- - Figure 37: Crisps and salty snacks brand personality – micro image, November 2011
- Brand experience
  - Figure 38: Crisps and salty snacks brand usage, November 2011
- - Figure 39: Satisfaction with various crisps and salty snacks brands, November 2011
  - Figure 40: Consideration of crisps and salty snacks brands, November 2011
- - Figure 41: Consumer perceptions of current crisps and salty snacks brand performance, November 2011
- - Figure 42: Crisps and salty snacks brand recommendation – net promoter score, November 2011
- Brand index
  - Figure 43: Crisps and salty snacks brand index, November 2011
  - Figure 44: Crisps and salty snacks brand index vs. recommendation, November 2011
- Target group analysis
  - Figure 45: Target groups, November 2011
- - Figure 46: Crisps and salty snacks brand usage, by target groups, November 2011
- Group One – Conformists
- Group Two – Simply the Best
- Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
- Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
- Group Five – Individualists
Brand Communication and Promotion
- Key points
- Adspend looks set to decline in 2011
  - Figure 47: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on crisps, salty snacks and nuts, 2007-11*
- Walkers ramps up its adspend and tightens its grip on the market
  - Figure 48: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by top-spending companies in 2011, 2008-11
- - Figure 49: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by top ten brands, 2011*
- TV remains the dominant advertising medium despite a slight fall
- - Figure 50: Main monitored media advertising spend on crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by media type, 2008-11*
Channels to Market
- Key points
- Multiple grocers strengthen their dominance in the market
  - Figure 51: Retail distribution of crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by outlet type, 2009-11
- Exclusivity still plays a small role in the market
- Crisps and salty snacks remain a part of the pub experience
Consumer – Trends in Usage of Crisps, Salty Snacks and Nuts
- Key points
- Crisps and salty snacks suffer decline in user numbers
  - Figure 52: Usage of potato crisps, tortilla chips and corn snacks, 2007-11
- - Figure 53: Types of potato crisps, tortilla and corn snacks used most often, 2007-11
- Nuts also see numbers of users fall
  - Figure 54: Usage of nuts and dried fruit, 2009-11
- - Figure 55: Types of nuts and dried fruits used most often, 2009-11
- Nuts usage pattern almost the complete opposite of crisps
Consumer – Usage of Crisps, Salty Snacks and Nuts by Type
- Key points
- Standard crisps remains the most popular snack type
- - Figure 56: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, November 2011
- - Figure 57: Most likely gender and age group to eat different types of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, November 2011
- Standard crisps remain dominant in consumers’ preferences
- Premium crisps continue moving into the mainstream
- Usage of tortilla chips grows rapidly
- Healthier crisps show signs of growth
- Popcorn is the star performer in 2011
- Roasted nuts are the second most widely eaten salty snack
- - Figure 58: Consumption of nuts in the last six months, by type, by age, November 2011
- More consumers expanding their crisps and salty snacks repertoires
- - Figure 59: Repertoire of usage of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, November 2011
Consumer – Usage of Crisps, Salty Snacks and Nuts by Location and Occasion
- Key points
- Home use dominates consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts
- - Figure 60: Locations for eating crisps, salty snacks and nuts, November 2011
- - Figure 61: Percentage point change in what consumers spend extra money on, November 2009 against October 2011
- Evening snacking dominates use of crisps, salty snacks and nuts
- - Figure 62: Occasions for eating crisps, salty snacks and nuts, November 2011
Consumer – Choice Factors
- Key points
- Price and flavour dominate as the main choice factors
- - Figure 63: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts, November 2011
- Consumers increasingly considering price but not special offers
- Consumers move towards their favourites and away from experimenting
- Trust important for three in five consumers
- Have sharing bags peaked?
- Over-55s look for health and quality ingredients
- Summary of choice factors by types of crisp and salty snacks
  - Figure 64: Choice factors, by top three types of snack, November 2011
Consumer – Attitudes towards Crisps and Salty Snacks
- Key points
- Resealable packaging and flavour dominate consumer attitudes
  - Figure 65: Attitudes towards crisps and salty snacks, November 2011
- Resealable packaging may help refresh sharing bags
- Flavour more important than health for the majority of consumers…
- …But healthy crisps may be on the rise
- Brands still lead the way on taste
Consumer – Attitudes towards Nuts and Popcorn
- Key points
- Health considerations come to the fore for consumption of nuts
  - Figure 66: Attitudes towards nuts, November 2011
- Roasted nuts benefits from a healthy image...
- …Although consumers are limiting their usage of nuts on health grounds
- Strong interest in newness, fair trade nuts and sharing bags
- Price represents a notable challenge for nuts
- Perceived overpricing a major barrier to popcorn usage
  - Figure 67: Attitudes towards popcorn, November 2011
Consumer – Target Groups
- Key points
- Five target groups
  - Figure 68: Target groups for crisps, salty snacks and nuts, November 2011
- Budgeters (23%)
- Health-conscious (20%)
- Enthusiasts (19%)
- Indulgents (12%)
- Undriven (26%)
Appendix – Internal Market Environment
- - Figure 69: Reasons for snacking 2009-11
  - Figure 70: Trends in current financial situation compared to a year ago, July-October 2011
  - Figure 71: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2007-11
- - Figure 72: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011
  - Figure 73: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011 (continued)
- - Figure 74: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011 (continued)
Appendix – Competitive Context
- - Figure 75: Trends in attitudes towards selected healthy lifestyles, December 2008-October 2011
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
- - Figure 76: Best and worst case forecasts for crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by value, 2011-16
  - Figure 77: Best and worst case forecasts for crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by value, 2011-16
  - Figure 78: Best and worst case forecasts for nuts, by value, 2011-16
Appendix – Brand Research
- - Figure 79: Brand usage, November 2011
  - Figure 80: Brand commitment, November 2011
- - Figure 81: Brand momentum, November 2011
  - Figure 82: Brand diversity, November 2011
- - Figure 83: Brand satisfaction, November 2011
  - Figure 84: Brand recommendation, November 2011
- - Figure 85: Brand attitude, November 2011
  - Figure 86: Brand image – macro image, November 2011
- - Figure 87: Brand image – micro image, November 2011
  - Figure 88: Profile of target groups by demographics, November 2011
  - Figure 89: Psychographic segmentation by target groups, November 2011
- - Figure 90: Brand usage by target groups, November 2011
  - Figure 91: Brand index, November 2011
Appendix – Consumer – Trends in Usage of Crisps, Salty Snacks and Nuts
- - Figure 92: Reasons for snacking, 2009-11
- - Figure 93: Usage of potato crisps, tortilla and corn snacks, by demographics, 2011
- - Figure 94: Types of potato crisps, tortilla and corn snacks used most often, 2007-11
- - Figure 95: Usage of nuts and dried fruit, by demographics, 2011
Appendix – Consumer – Usage of Crisps, Salty Snacks and Nuts by Type
- - Figure 96: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, by demographics, November 2011
- - Figure 97: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, by demographics, November 2011 (continued)
- - Figure 98: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, by demographics, November 2011 (continued)
- - Figure 99: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months by type, by repertoire, November 2011
- - Figure 100: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, by demographics, November 2011
Appendix – Consumer – Usage of Crisps, Salty Snacks and Nuts by Location and Occasion
- - Figure 101: Locations for eating crisps, nuts and salty snacks: by demographics, November 2011
- - Figure 102: Occasions for eating crisps, nuts and salty snacks; by demographics, November 2011
Appendix – Consumer – Choice Factors
- - Figure 103: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by demographics, November 2011
- - Figure 104: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by demographics, November 2011 (continued)
- - Figure 105: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by demographics, November 2011 (continued)
- - Figure 106: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, November 2011
- - Figure 107: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, November 2011 (continued)
- - Figure 108: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, November 2011 (continued)
Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes towards Crisps and Salty Snacks
- - Figure 109: Attitudes towards crisps, salty snacks and nuts, November 2011
- - Figure 110: Agreement with the statements ‘I prefer the taste of branded crisps/salty snacks to own-label ones’ and ‘I only buy premium crisps / salty snacks when they are on offer’, by demographics, November 2011
- - Figure 111: Agreement with the statements ‘I am prepared to pay more for branded crisps/salty snacks’ and ‘I prefer crisps made from UK-sourced potatoes’, by demographics, November 2011
- - Figure 112: Agreement with the statements ‘Healthy crisps are tastier than they used to be’ and ‘I buy more sharing bags than I used to’, by demographics, November 2011
- - Figure 113: Agreement with the statements ‘Flavour is more important to me than calorie content’ and ‘I always try to buy healthy crisps/salty snacks’, by demographics, November 2011
- - Figure 114: Agreement with the statements “I would like to see resealable packaging for large sharing packs of crisps/salty snacks” and “I like to buy retro crisps / salty snacks”, by demographics, November 2011
Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes towards Nuts and Popcorn
- - Figure 115: Attitudes towards nuts and popcorn, November 2011
- - Figure 116: Agreement with the statements ‘Roasted nuts are a good source of protein and vitamins’ and ‘I limit the amount of roasted nuts I eat because they are unhealthy’, by demographics, November 2011
- - Figure 117: Agreement with the statements ‘Roasted nuts are healthier than crisps/other salty snacks’ and ‘I would prefer to buy nuts in a large sharing bag’, by demographics, November 2011
- - Figure 118: Agreement with the statements ‘I like trying new brands and flavours of nuts’ and ‘Nuts are cheap when compared to other snacks’, by demographics, November 2011
- - Figure 119: Agreement with the statements ‘I only buy nuts when they are on special offer’ and ‘I would buy more nuts if the salt content was lower’, by demographics, November 2011
- - Figure 120: Agreement with the statements ‘I would be more likely to buy healthier nut options’ and ‘I would like to buy more fair trade nuts’, by demographics, November 2011
- - Figure 121: Agreement with the statements ‘Popcorn is healthier than other snacks’ and ‘Popcorn is overpriced’, by demographics, November 2011
Appendix – Consumer – Target Groups
- - Figure 122: Target groups, by demographics, November 2011
- - Figure 123: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type; by target groups, November 2011
- - Figure 124: Locations for eating crisps, nuts and salty snacks; by target groups, November 2011
- - Figure 125: Occasions for eating crisps, nuts and salty snacks; by target groups, November 2011
- - Figure 126: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by target groups, November 2011
- - Figure 127: Attitudes towards eating crisps and salty snacks, by target groups, November 2011
- - Figure 128: Attitudes towards eating nuts and popcorn, by target groups, November 2011
- - Figure 129: Healthy lifestyles, by target groups, November 2011