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Cruises - September 2018

“The new high profit levels may not be completely sustained over the next ten years as there will always be moments of economic (or geopolitical) crisis when profitability suffers but the industry has shown itself to be resilient and now all the major companies have much stronger balance sheets than some have enjoyed in the past. If they can maintain their current determination to hold the line on pricing, the future looks more profitable than it has ever been for global cruising.”
– Jessica Kelly, Senior Tourism Analyst

The report also looks at the following areas:

  • Will higher-visibility security remove the fear factor among cruise travellers?
  • Why is Australia the most highly penetrated of all cruise source markets?
  • Is cruising really to blame for overtourism?
  • Why are the cruise companies gambling billions on LNG?
  • Will the trend for adults-only cruising help or hinder growth?
  • Does using intrusive technology to customise individual cruise experiences attract or alienate passengers?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Report objectives and structure
        • Key findings
        • Data Sources

          • Abbreviations

            • Issues in the Market

                • India the new China?
                  • Cruising – going nowhere fast
                    • New approach to ageing ships pays dividends
                      • Carnival takes the lead in generic advertising
                        • Japan no 1 in Asia – thanks to China
                          • Multi-billion-dollar LNG gamble spreads industry-wide
                            • Facing up to the fear factor
                              • Who’s innovating?
                              • Global Summary

                                    • Figure 1: Global ocean-cruise passengers, 2012-17
                                    • Figure 2: New ships on order for delivery from September 2018 to 2027
                                  • Signs of life in North American markets
                                    • Figure 3: North American ocean & river-cruise market, 2007-17
                                    • Figure 4: Cruise regions chosen by North American cruise passengers, 2016-17
                                    • Figure 5: Cruise regions chosen by Canadian cruise passengers, 2016-17
                                    • Figure 6: Cruise-passenger embarkations at US & Canadian ports, 2011-16
                                    • Figure 7: North American & European cruise markets, 2007-17
                                    • Figure 8: Destination shares of North American/global cruise capacity, 2012-17
                                    • Figure 9: Regional shares of US cruise passengers, 1990-2016
                                    • Figure 10: Canadian residents purchasing cruises (by province), 2016
                                    • Figure 11: North American cruise-passenger demographics, 2002-16
                                    • Figure 12: Duration of last cruise (by generation groups), 2017
                                    • Figure 13: Cruise-product sector selection by generation groups, 2017
                                    • Figure 14: Booking patterns for cruisers & non-cruisers, 2017
                                    • Figure 15: Consumer interest in cruising, by income bracket, 2017
                                    • Figure 16: Most important ship amenities for different income brackets, 2017
                                  • New Med capacity to boost Euro markets
                                    • Figure 17: Western European cruise market, 2001-17
                                    • Figure 18: Western European ocean-cruise passengers by country, 2013-17
                                    • Figure 19: Five-year % growth/decline of Western European cruise-source markets, 2013-17
                                    • Figure 20: Western European countries’ share of cruise passengers, 2013-17
                                    • Figure 21: Where Europeans cruised, 2013-17
                                  • UK set to regain growth momentum
                                      • Figure 22: UK cruise market, 2007-17
                                      • Figure 23: UK cruise sector’s share of foreign holidays market, 2001-16
                                      • Figure 24: Market share of first-time UK cruise passengers, 2007-16
                                      • Figure 25: UK passengers booking multiple cruises in one year, 2012-16
                                      • Figure 26: Age profile of UK cruise passengers, 2007-17
                                      • Figure 27: UK passenger age ranges, 2016-17
                                      • Figure 28: UK-UK cruises versus flycruises, 2007-16
                                      • Figure 29: Top main destinations for UK cruise passengers, 2001-17
                                      • Figure 30: Top individual destinations for UK cruise passengers, 2016 & 2017
                                      • Figure 31: Passengers embarking at UK cruise ports, 2011-17
                                      • Figure 32: Luxury brands’ share of the UK cruise market*, 2012-16
                                      • Figure 33: Average per diems on UK-booked cruises, 2007-16
                                      • Figure 34: Booking lead-times for UK cruise market, 2007-16
                                      • Figure 35: Average duration, in nights, of UK-booked cruises, 2011-17
                                      • Figure 36: UK cruise durations, 2016-2017
                                      • Figure 37: UK river-cruise market, 2013-16
                                    • Germany back on course for 3m
                                      • Figure 38: German cruise market, 2007-17
                                      • Figure 39: Key players in German cruise-market – revenue & passengers, fiscal year 2016/17
                                      • Figure 40: German cruise-market overview, 2013-16
                                      • Figure 41: Top destinations for German cruise passengers, 2013-17
                                    • French market hits buffers
                                      • Figure 42: French cruise market, 2007-17
                                      • Figure 43: Destination breakdown for French passengers, 2012-17
                                    • No bounce-back yet for Italy
                                      • Figure 44: Italian cruise market, 2007-17
                                      • Figure 45: Destination breakdown for Italian passengers, 2012-17
                                    • Slow but steady recovery for Spain
                                      • Figure 46: Spanish cruise market, 2007-17
                                      • Figure 47: Destination breakdown for Spanish passengers, 2012-17
                                    • More volatility among smaller European markets
                                      • Brazil bottoms out while Mexico is on the up
                                        • Figure 48: Brazil cruise traffic, 2011-18
                                      • China growth to stall after Korea stand-off?
                                        • Figure 49: Asian ocean-cruise market, 2012-17
                                        • Figure 50: Cruise ships deployed (by size/type) in Asia, 2013-17
                                        • Figure 51: Cruise choice of Asian passengers, 2012-16
                                        • Figure 52: Emerging Asian source markets, 2016
                                      • Growth slowdown for Australian source market
                                        • Figure 53: Australian ocean-cruise market, 2006-17
                                        • Figure 54: Leading cruise destinations for Australians, 2012-17
                                      • New Zealand on course for 100,000 passengers
                                        • Figure 55: New Zealand ocean-cruise market, 2009-17
                                    • Global Cruise Sector Supports a Million Jobs

                                        • Major increase in cruise benefits across Europe
                                          • Figure 56: Total economic impact of European cruise sector, 2005-17
                                          • Figure 57: European cruise industry spending on newbuilds & refurbishment (by country), 2017
                                          • Figure 58: Total cruise-sector impact on selected industries within European economies, 2010-17
                                          • Figure 59: Benefits from cruise sector by country*, 2014-17
                                          • Figure 60: Passengers embarking at European ports, 2010-17
                                          • Figure 61: Cruise-passenger visits to European ports, 2010-17
                                          • Figure 62: Global cruise passengers by European country of embarkation, 2012-17
                                          • Figure 63: Passengers’ visits to European countries*, 2014-17
                                          • Figure 64: Cruise passenger movements per MedCruise country, 2013-17
                                          • Figure 65: Leading Mediterranean homeports, 2014-17
                                        • Baltic and Norway both on the rise
                                          • Figure 66: Cruise traffic to Baltic ports, 2001-18
                                          • Figure 67: Cruise turnarounds at Baltic ports, 2008-17
                                          • Figure 68: Cruise traffic at Norwegian ports in 2017 & forecast for 2018
                                          • Figure 69: Nationalities of cruise visitors to Norway, 2010-16
                                        • Incoming growing faster than outbound UK market
                                          • Figure 70: Transit passengers at UK ports, 2010-17
                                          • Figure 71: Leading Northern European homeports, 2013-17
                                          • Figure 72: Leading Northern European ports of call, 2013-17
                                        • Sydney bottleneck threatens economic growth
                                          • Figure 73: Impact of cruise sector (international & domestic) on Australian economy, 2009-17
                                          • Figure 74: Cruise lines/crew/passenger spend in Australia, 2007-17
                                          • Figure 75: Profile of the Australian cruise industry, 2008-17
                                          • Figure 76: Cruise industry output in Australia (by state), 2015-17
                                        • Season 2016/17
                                          • Figure 77: Economic impact of cruise sector on Australian ports, 2010-17
                                        • New Zealand set to benefit from Australia’s cruise boom
                                          • Figure 78: Cruise traffic at New Zealand ports, 2016-18
                                          • Figure 79: Cruise industry impact on New Zealand (by port) 2016/17 & forecast for 2017/18
                                          • Figure 80: Cruise-sector impact on New Zealand economy, 2007-17
                                        • Upsurge in US embarkations to accelerate benefit growth
                                          • Figure 81: Cruise-industry impact on US economy, 2012-16*
                                          • Figure 82: US industries benefiting from the cruise sector, 2016
                                          • Figure 83: Spending by cruise passengers/crew in US, 2014-16
                                          • Figure 84: Embarkations from US cruise ports, 2011-16
                                          • Figure 85: Cruise industry impact by US state in 2016
                                        • New investment, new operator for New York terminals
                                            • Figure 86: Cruise spending in New York by embarking passengers, 2015-17
                                            • Figure 87: Cruise crew spending in New York, 2013-17
                                          • More cruises taken from Canadian ports ups impact
                                            • Figure 88: Canadian ports cruise visitors (by type), 2007-16
                                            • Figure 89: Canadian cruise ports traffic (embarking & transit), 2016
                                            • Figure 90: Total economic impact of cruise industry on Canada, 2016
                                            • Figure 91: Direct cruise-related expenditure in Canada, 2016
                                            • Figure 92: Cruise lines spending (by category) in Canada, 2016
                                            • Figure 93: Passenger/crew spending (by category) in Canada, 2016
                                          • Brazil pays economic price for cruise decline
                                            • Figure 94: Cruise-sector impact on Brazilian economy, 2013-17
                                            • Figure 95: Cruise-line spending in Brazilian economy, 2015-17
                                            • Figure 96: Passenger/crew spending in Brazilian economy, 2015-17
                                          • Caribbean on the rebound
                                              • Figure 97: Caribbean cruise traffic, 2014-17
                                            • Bermuda on a roll
                                              • Figure 98: Cruise calls & visitor arrivals in Bermuda (& forecast for 2018), 2016-17
                                              • Figure 99: Economic impact of cruise tourism in Bermuda (& forecast for 2018), 2016-17
                                            • China attracts huge economic benefits to North Asia
                                              • Figure 100: Cruise tourism impact (by country) on North Asian economies, 2016
                                              • Figure 101: Cruise calls, passenger/crew visits & expenditure in North Asia, 2016
                                              • Figure 102: Cruise tourism impact (by category & country) on North Asia, 2016
                                            • Global growth generates momentum for Gulf cruising
                                            • India – The New China?

                                                • Action plans but no action
                                                  • Costa once again the pioneer brand
                                                    • State not cruise companies to fund port infrastructure
                                                      • Excessive bureaucracy hampers cruise operations
                                                      • Cruising – Going Nowhere Fast?

                                                          • Iconic destinations limit cruise calls
                                                            • Mega-ships crucial to future growth
                                                              • CLIA needs to be more proactive
                                                              • New Approach to Ageing Ships Pays Dividends

                                                                • Carnival Takes Lead in Generic Advertising

                                                                    • Winning the generic argument
                                                                      • Carnival goes prime time on Hispanic TV
                                                                        • Too much advertising based on price
                                                                        • Japan No 1 in Asia – Thanks to China

                                                                            • Targeting the Japanese
                                                                              • From a niche to a major cruise destination
                                                                                • Six ports to become cruise hubs
                                                                                • Multi-Billion-Dollar LNG Gamble Spreads Industry-wide

                                                                                    • LNG cruise-ship orders reach 21
                                                                                      • Shore power a sticking-plaster solution
                                                                                        • China to install LNG at cruise ports
                                                                                          • Are fuel cells the next step?
                                                                                          • Facing Up to the Fear Factor

                                                                                              • Concerns about overt security
                                                                                                • Call for industry security council
                                                                                                  • Rejecting the ‘rhetoric of fear’
                                                                                                  • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                                                      • A new reality
                                                                                                        • Going down?
                                                                                                          • Getting to know you
                                                                                                          • The Top Four Cruise Companies

                                                                                                                • Figure 103: Top four cruise companies by capacity, 2018-25
                                                                                                            • Carnival Corporation & plc

                                                                                                                • SWOT analysis
                                                                                                                  • Ownership
                                                                                                                    • Revenues and profits
                                                                                                                      • Figure 104: Carnival Corporation & plc’s results, 2013-17
                                                                                                                    • Fuel price rise costs Carnival another record year
                                                                                                                        • Figure 105: Carnival’s fuel consumption & cost, 2011-17
                                                                                                                      • North America bounces back
                                                                                                                        • Figure 106: Carnival’s revenues by area of passenger sourcing, 2015-17
                                                                                                                        • Figure 107: Carnival’s revenues by regional brands, 2015-17
                                                                                                                        • Figure 108: Carnival’s operating incomes by brands, 2015-17
                                                                                                                      • Brands
                                                                                                                        • Figure 109: Brands owned by Carnival Corporation & plc, their major markets & market sector, 2018
                                                                                                                    • Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCC)

                                                                                                                        • SWOT analysis
                                                                                                                          • Ownership
                                                                                                                            • Revenues and profits
                                                                                                                              • Figure 110: Royal Caribbean Cruises’ results, 2014-17
                                                                                                                            • Double-double completes RCC transformation
                                                                                                                              • Brands
                                                                                                                                • Figure 111: Brands owned by Royal Caribbean Cruises, their major markets & market sector, 2018
                                                                                                                            • Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)

                                                                                                                                • SWOT analysis
                                                                                                                                  • Ownership
                                                                                                                                    • Revenues and profits
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 112: NCL Holdings’ results, 2014-17
                                                                                                                                    • Five years of double-digit EPS growth for NCLH
                                                                                                                                      • Brands
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 113: Brands owned by NCLH, 2018
                                                                                                                                      • Profits dip in 2017 for MSC
                                                                                                                                        • Shipbuilding set-up costs Genting HK
                                                                                                                                          • Other brands
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 114: Key brands (prime source markets) & market sectors not owned by Carnival, RCC, NCLH or MSC, 2018
                                                                                                                                        • Cruise Product Niches

                                                                                                                                            • Figure 115: New ships by product sector, 2007-27
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 116: Average capacity of new ships delivered, 2013-23
                                                                                                                                          • Contemporary brands
                                                                                                                                            • Royal Caribbean International (an RCC brand)
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 117: Royal Caribbean International fleet/orderbook, July 2018
                                                                                                                                            • Carnival Cruise Line (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 118: Carnival Cruise Line fleet/orderbook, July 2018
                                                                                                                                            • Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 119: Norwegian Cruise Line fleet/orderbook, July 2018
                                                                                                                                            • MSC Cruises
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 120: MSC Cruises fleet/orderbook, July 2018
                                                                                                                                            • Costa Cruises (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 121: Costa Cruises fleet/orderbook (includes new Costa Asia sub-brand), July 2018
                                                                                                                                            • AIDA Cruises (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 122: Aida Cruises fleet/orderbook, July 2018
                                                                                                                                            • Disney Cruise Line
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 123: Disney Cruise Line’s fleet/orderbook, July 2018
                                                                                                                                            • Star Cruises (Genting Hong Kong)
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 124: Star Cruises fleet/orderbook, July 2018
                                                                                                                                            • Budget brands
                                                                                                                                              • Marella Cruises (TUI)
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 125: Marella Cruises fleet, July 2018
                                                                                                                                              • P&O Cruises Australia (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 126: P&O Cruises Australia fleet, July 2018
                                                                                                                                              • Pullmantur Cruises (RCC JV with Springwater Capital)
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 127: Pullmantur Cruises fleet, July 2018
                                                                                                                                              • Celestyal Cruises (Louis)
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 128: Celestyal Cruises fleet, July 2018
                                                                                                                                              • Cruise & Maritime Voyages (Global Maritime Group)
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 129: Cruise & Maritime Voyages fleet, July 2018
                                                                                                                                              • Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 130: Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines fleet, July 2018
                                                                                                                                              • Other budget brands
                                                                                                                                                • Premium brands
                                                                                                                                                  • Princess Cruises (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 131: Princess Cruises fleet/orderbook, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                  • Holland America Line (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 132: Holland America Line fleet/orderbook, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                  • Celebrity Cruises (RCC)
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 133: Celebrity Cruises fleet/orderbook, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                  • P&O Cruises (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 134: P&O Cruises fleet/orderbook, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                  • TUI Cruises (RCC/TUI JV)
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 135: TUI Cruises’ fleet/orderbook, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                  • Cunard Line (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 136: Cunard Line’s fleet/orderbook, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                  • Saga Cruises
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 137: Saga Cruises’ fleet/orderbook, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                  • Dream Cruises (Genting HK)
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 138: Dream Cruises’ fleet, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                  • Other Premium brands
                                                                                                                                                    • Premium-plus brands
                                                                                                                                                      • Oceania Cruises (NCLH)
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 139: Oceania Cruises’ fleet, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                      • Viking Ocean Cruises
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 140: Viking Ocean Cruises’ fleet, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                      • Azamara Club Cruises (RCC)
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 141: Azamara Club Cruises fleet, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                      • Luxury brands
                                                                                                                                                        • Silversea Cruises
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 142: Silversea Cruises fleet/orderbook, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                        • Seabourn (Carnival)
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 143: Seabourn Cruise Line’s fleet, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                        • Crystal Cruises (Genting HK)
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 144: Crystal Cruises’ fleet/orderbook, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                        • Regent Seven Seas Cruises (NCLH)
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 145: Regent Seven Seas Cruises fleet/orderbook, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                        • Hapag-Lloyd Cruises (TUI)
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 146: Hapag-Lloyd Cruises fleet/orderbook, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                        • Windstar Cruises
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 147: Windstar Cruises fleet, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                        • Ponant Cruises
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 148: Ponant Cruises fleet/orderbook, July 2018
                                                                                                                                                        • Other Luxury and Expedition brands
                                                                                                                                                          • Virgin the big name among start-up brands
                                                                                                                                                            • MSC to break into top three
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 149: Top 20 cruise brands, by current & ordered capacity, 2016-25
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 150: Global cruise capacity & passenger growth, 2016-30
                                                                                                                                                          • What Next?

                                                                                                                                                              • Record profitability to become the new normal?
                                                                                                                                                                • Race to the Poles
                                                                                                                                                                  • Adults-only policy could be X-rated for Virgin
                                                                                                                                                                    • Managing social media

                                                                                                                                                                    Cruises - September 2018

                                                                                                                                                                    US $2,018.70 (Excl.Tax)