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Description

Description

“The COVID-19 crisis and its economic impact have ushered in a period of unprecedented volatility in the cycling market. The crisis has provided a boost to demand in the immediate term, but bike sales are likely to contract as an anticipated deep recession bites. The likely repercussions of COVID-19 on cycling participation are complex.The UK lockdown is disrupting patterns of behaviour, resulting in lower levels of weekday cycle commuting overall, but a spike in weekend leisure riding. Release from lockdown and a return to the workplace will trigger a further shift from crowded public transport to bikes. Once spending recovers from the impact of recession, the long-term market potential is strong. Cycling is uniquely placed to benefit from growing health & wellness and environmental trends – both of which may be boosted by the COVID-19 crisis - and a broader urban mobility revolution which includes e-bikes and e-scooters.”

John Worthington, Senior Analyst

This report will cover the following areas -

  • The impact of COVID-19 on consumer cycling behaviour and the cycling market.
  • The longer term prospects for bicycle and e-bike sales.
  • Usage of cycling retailers.
  • Challenges and opportunities for bike shops.

What's included

What's included

Table of contents

Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Key issues covered in this Report
        • Covered in this Report
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Cycling had appeared on target for gradual growth in 2020, but COVID-19 has created huge volatility
                • Figure 1: UK bicycles market, volume forecast (adjusted for COVID-19 as at 11 May 2020), 2014-24
                • Figure 2: UK bicycles market, value forecast (adjusted for COVID-19 as at 11 May 2020), 2014-24
              • E-bike sales have continued to surge, however COVID-19 will hit the segment hard
                • Impact of COVID-19 on cycling
                  • Figure 3: Expected impact of COVID-19 on bicycle sales, short, medium and long-term, 11 May 2020
                • Companies and brands
                  • Halfords’ cycling sales up 3% in the 40 weeks to 3 January 2020
                    • Figure 4: Selected companies in the UK cycling market, by latest reported revenues, March 2020
                  • The consumer
                    • Cycling participation up 5 percentage points
                      • Figure 5: Participation in cycling, 2014-20
                    • Road bikes are catching up MTBs
                      • Figure 6: Bicycle ownership, 2017-20
                    • Bike purchase intentions had risen prior to the crisis
                      • Figure 7: Adult bicycle purchase intentions, January 2019 and February 2020
                    • Halfords, Amazon and independent bike shops are the most popular channels
                      • Figure 8: Cycling retailers used to buy either a bicycle or parts, clothing and accessories, February 2020
                    • Service-led bike shops
                      • Figure 9: Incentives to use local bike shops, February 2020
                    • What we think
                    • The Impact of COVID-19 on Cycling

                      • Short, medium and long-term impact on the industry
                        • Figure 10: Expected impact of COVID-19 on bicycle sales, short, medium and long-term, 11 May 2020
                      • Opportunities and threats
                        • A volatile year for bike sales in 2020
                          • …but the impact of the crisis on cycling participation is complex
                            • Fears of travelling on public transport could boost cycling once lockdown restrictions are relaxed…
                              • …and limited leisure options have encouraged families to rediscover the joy of cycling
                                • Indoor cycling trainers have seen a spike in sales
                                  • The crisis may accelerate the online and D2C cycling trends…
                                    • …creating further challenges (and opportunities) for bike shops
                                      • Local bike shops at the heart of their communities
                                        • Last mile delivery trend also set to increase
                                          • COVID-19 could be a catalyst for healthier lifestyles…
                                            • …and a renewed focus on environmental issues
                                              • Impact on the market
                                                • COVID-19 is expected to lead to an 8% drop in bicycle sales during 2020
                                                  • Figure 11: UK bicycles market, value forecast (adjusted for COVID-19 as at 11 May 2020), 2014-24
                                                • Economic assumptions
                                                  • Shifts in consumer behaviour
                                                    • Overall leisure spend has slumped…
                                                      • Figure 12: Expectations for leisure spending over the next month, March/April 2020
                                                    • …But cycling is likely to recover quicker than other leisure sectors
                                                      • Cycling has fallen during the week but surged at the weekend
                                                        • Figure 13: Road transport flows in England, by mode, 16 March-26 April 2020
                                                      • Health & wellbeing and the environment have become higher priorities
                                                        • Figure 14: Areas which have become a higher priority during the COVID-19 crisis, April 2020
                                                      • …especially for key cycling demographics
                                                        • Figure 15: Areas which have become a higher priority during the COVID-19 crisis, by age group, April 2020
                                                      • The relative affluence of cyclists will help shield the market…
                                                        • …but the family market could be most impacted
                                                          • How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the market
                                                            • Severe economic contraction expected in 2020
                                                              • Figure 16: People’s confidence about their personal financial situation over the next 12 months, January-April 2020
                                                            • Rising unemployment will impact on discretionary spend
                                                              • The last recession had a relatively short-term impact on cycling
                                                                • COVID-19: UK context
                                                                • Issues and Insights

                                                                  • Encouraging families to bond by bike
                                                                    • The facts
                                                                      • The implications
                                                                        • Socially conscious cyclists
                                                                          • The facts
                                                                            • The implications
                                                                              • Mobile call-out
                                                                                • The facts
                                                                                  • The implications
                                                                                    • Performance cycling bundles
                                                                                      • The facts
                                                                                        • The implications
                                                                                        • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                                                          • 2.5 million bike sales in 2019
                                                                                            • PAC sales account for half of total cycling spend
                                                                                              • Rising expectations quashed by COVID-19 crisis
                                                                                                • E-bike volumes increased an estimated 40% in 2019
                                                                                                  • Bee Network could be the future for UK cycling
                                                                                                    • Impact of the crisis on cycling
                                                                                                      • The UK’s urban mobility revolution
                                                                                                      • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                        • Bike volumes flat and spend up 2% in 2019
                                                                                                          • Sales appeared poised for new growth cycle in 2020…
                                                                                                            • Figure 17: Trends in bicycle sales, by volume and value, 2014-19
                                                                                                          • …but COVID-19 crisis has intervened
                                                                                                            • E-bike volume sales grew an estimated 40% in 2019
                                                                                                              • Longer-term growth prospects are good but infrastructure is the key to unlocking potential
                                                                                                                • Forecast
                                                                                                                    • Figure 18: UK bicycles market, volume forecast (adjusted for COVID-19 as at 11 May 2020), 2014-24
                                                                                                                    • Figure 19: UK bicycles market, value forecast (adjusted for COVID-19 as at 11 May 2020), 2014-24
                                                                                                                    • Figure 20: Trends in bicycle sales, by volume and value (adjusted for COVID-19 as at 11 May 2020), 2014-24
                                                                                                                    • Figure 21: UK bicycles market, volume forecast (pre-COVID-19 forecast), 2014-24
                                                                                                                    • Figure 22: UK bicycles market, value forecast (pre-COVID-19 forecast), 2014-24
                                                                                                                    • Figure 23: Trends in bicycle sales, by volume and value (pre-COVID-19 forecast), 2014-24
                                                                                                                  • Economic assumptions
                                                                                                                  • Market Background

                                                                                                                    • COVID-19
                                                                                                                      • Cycling growth lags walking and indoor fitness
                                                                                                                          • Figure 24: Adult participation in leisure/sporting activity in England, May 2016/17-May 2018/19
                                                                                                                        • Less than 2% of journeys are taken by bike still…
                                                                                                                          • Figure 25: Average number of trips, by main travel mode in England, 2008-18
                                                                                                                        • …but average mileage amongst cyclists has increased
                                                                                                                          • Figure 26: Average distance cycled per cyclist in England, 2006-18
                                                                                                                        • Safety concerns remain the main barrier to increased participation
                                                                                                                          • £2.4 billion to be spent on cycling from 2017-21 but more funding is needed to meet short-term targets
                                                                                                                            • Manchester’s Bee Network could be the national blueprint
                                                                                                                              • The urban mobility revolution
                                                                                                                              • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                • Halfords reports rise in cycling revenue but closes Cycle Republic
                                                                                                                                  • Evans retains 52 stores despite fears of heavier closures
                                                                                                                                    • Mixed performance from the leading bike suppliers
                                                                                                                                      • Brompton going from strength to strength
                                                                                                                                        • Electric Raleigh
                                                                                                                                          • Kickr launch benefits from lockdown
                                                                                                                                            • Bamboo and new folding bikes
                                                                                                                                            • Cycling Suppliers and Retailers

                                                                                                                                              • Halfords
                                                                                                                                                • Evans Cycles
                                                                                                                                                  • Giant, Specialized and Trek
                                                                                                                                                    • Other leading bicycle suppliers
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 27: Selected companies in the UK cycling market, by latest reported revenues, March 2020
                                                                                                                                                      • Independent bike shops
                                                                                                                                                        • Generalist sports and other retailers
                                                                                                                                                          • WiggleCRC
                                                                                                                                                            • Go Outdoors
                                                                                                                                                              • Decathlon
                                                                                                                                                                • Other retailers
                                                                                                                                                                • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                                                  • Kickr arrives just in time as indoor cycling moves up a gear
                                                                                                                                                                    • Indoor cycling fashion
                                                                                                                                                                      • Sustainable cycling
                                                                                                                                                                        • Folding innovations
                                                                                                                                                                          • Try-before-you-buy e-bikes
                                                                                                                                                                            • DIY e-bike
                                                                                                                                                                              • Cargo bikes for kids and canines
                                                                                                                                                                              • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                                                • Cycling participation rises again but still lags 2015 levels
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Road bikes poised to overtake MTBs?
                                                                                                                                                                                    • 11% of regular (weekly) cyclists own an e-bike
                                                                                                                                                                                      • 70% of parents say their kids own a bike
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Pre-crisis purchase intentions showed a significant increase
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Halfords is used by four in 10 cyclists
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Bike shops can fight back with a service-led focus
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Cycling Participation

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Lift in cycling participation
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 28: Participation in cycling, 2014-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 29: Regular participation in cycling (weekly or more often), 2014-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Gender gap remains wide…
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 30: Any participation in cycling, by gender, 2016-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                • …but some evidence of higher female and over-45 participation
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 31: Gender and age profile of current and potential cyclists, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Other demographic factors
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Bicycle Ownership

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Road bike ownership is catching up MTBs
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • E-bike ownership has risen to 11% of ‘regular cyclists’
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 32: Bicycle ownership, 2017-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Female e-bike ownership shows a slight rise
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 33: Bicycle ownership, by gender, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 5-11 year olds are the likeliest to own a kids’ bike
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 34: Ownership of children’s bikes, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Bicycle Purchase

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 17% of cyclists bought a bike in the last 12-month period
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 35: Purchase of last bicycle, January 2019 and February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Almost one in four parents bought a kids’ bike in last 12 months
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 36: Purchase of last children’s bicycle, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Rise in bike purchase intentions shown in February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 37: Adult bicycle purchase intentions, January 2019 and February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 25-34 group have the strongest purchase intentions
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 38: Children’s bicycle purchase intentions, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Bicycle Purchase Drivers

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Price and product quality are the highest priorities
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 39: Bicycle purchasing factors, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Ethical/environmental factors are important especially for younger cyclists
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Bicycle purchasing factors, by age, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Cycling Retailers

                                                                                                                                                                                                        • 40% of cyclists shopped in Halfords in the last 12-month period
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Around one in four cyclists use local independent bike shops for bike or PAC purchases
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Amazon leads the generalist push into the cycling market
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • 13% of cyclists shop at second-hand retailers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 41: Cycling retailers used to buy either a bicycle or parts, clothing and accessories, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Amazon and Halfords are the most popular channels for bike purchases
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 42: Cycling retailers used to buy a bicycle* and parts, clothing and accessories**, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 43: Cycling retailers used to buy either a bicycle or parts, clothing and accessories, by age, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Bike Shops

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Bike shops are embracing services and the experience economy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Maintenance classes would be the most popular service
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • One in five cyclists would use a mobile call-out service
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • E-bike expertise offers growing opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 44: Incentives to use local bike shops, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Younger cyclists are most likely to be drawn by experiential offer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Bundling performance products with training/advice sessions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 45: Incentives to use local bike shops, by age, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 46: UK bicycles market, volume forecast (pre-COVID-19 forecast), 2019-24
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 47: UK bicycles market, value forecast (pre-COVID-19 forecast), 2019-24
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Forecast methodology

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            About the report

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            This report will give you a complete 360-degree view of your market. Not only is it rooted in robust proprietary and high-quality third-party data, but our industry experts put that data into context and you’ll quickly understand:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The Consumer

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              What They Want. Why They Want It.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The Competitors

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Who’s Winning. How To Stay Ahead.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The Market

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Size, Segments, Shares And Forecasts: How It All Adds Up.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The Innovations

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              New Ideas. New Products. New Potential.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Where The White Space Is. How To Make It Yours.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The Trends

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              What’s Shaping Demand – Today And Tomorrow.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

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